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SPY DISTRIBUTION - Wyckoff Phases - SHIT IS ABOUT TO HIT THE FANMe applying the wyckoff distribution phases to spy. Below is a description of everything on the chart. I know it is a lot but it is well worth reading. the mind is a terrible thing to waste. Please check related ideas link for more information into wyckoff and this distribution phase. THIS IS BASED OF THE WYCKOFF DISTRIBUTION PHASES. Phase A: Phase A in a distribution TR (trading range) marks the stopping of the prior uptrend. Up to this point, demand has been dominant and the first significant evidence of supply entering the market is provided by preliminary supply (PSY) and the buying climax (BC). These events are usually followed by an automatic reaction (AR) and a secondary test (ST) of the BC, often upon diminished volume. However, the uptrend may also terminate without climactic action, instead demonstrating exhaustion of demand with decreasing spread and volume; less upward progress is made on each rally before significant supply emerges. In a redistribution TR within a larger downtrend, Phase A may look more like the start of an accumulation TR (e.g., with climactic price and volume action to the downside). However, Phases B through E of a re-distribution TR can be analyzed in a similar manner to the distribution TR at the market top. BC: buying climax during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, with heavy or urgent buying by the public being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often coincides with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price. AR—automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR. (trading range) Phase B: The function of Phase B is to build a cause in preparation for a new downtrend. During this time, institutions and large professional interests are disposing of their long inventory and initiating short positions in anticipation of the next markdown. The points about Phase B in distribution are similar to those made for Phase B in accumulation, except that the large interests are net sellers of shares as the TR evolves, with the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. This process leaves clues that the supply/demand balance has tilted toward supply instead of demand. For instance, SOWs are usually accompanied by significantly increased spread and volume to the downside. ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. For a top to be confirmed, supply must outweigh demand; volume and spread should thus decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. An ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs before quickly reversing to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR. (trading range) SOW—sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant. Phase C: In distribution, Phase C may reveal itself via an upthrust (UT) or UTAD. As noted above, a UT is the opposite of a spring. It is a price move above TR resistance that quickly reverses and closes in the TR. This is a test of the remaining demand. It is also a bull trap—it appears to signal the resumption of the uptrend but in reality is intended to “wrong-foot” uninformed break-out traders. A UT or UTAD allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and, subsequently, sell additional shares at elevated prices to such break-out traders and investors before the markdown begins. In addition, a UTAD may induce smaller traders in short positions to cover and surrender their shares to the larger interests who have engineered this move. Aggressive traders may wish to initiate short positions after a UT or UTAD. The risk/reward ratio is often quite favorable. However, the “smart money” repeatedly stops out traders who initiate such short positions with one UT after another, so it is often safer to wait until Phase D and an LPSY. Often demand is so weak in a distribution TR that price does not reach the level of the BC or initial ST. In this case, Phase C's test of demand may be represented by a UT of a lower high within the TR. LPSY—last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest. UTAD—upthrust after distribution. A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Analogous to springs and shakeouts, a UTAD is not a required structural element. Phase D: Phase D arrives after the tests in Phase C show us the last gasps of demand. During Phase D, price travels to or through TR support. The evidence that supply is clearly dominant increases either with a clear break of support or with a decline below the mid-point of the TR after a UT or UTAD. There are often multiple weak rallies within Phase D; these LPSYs represent excellent opportunities to initiate or add to profitable short positions. Anyone still in a long position during Phase D is asking for trouble. Phase E: Phase E depicts the unfolding of the downtrend; the stock leaves the TR and supply is in control. Once TR support is broken on a major SOW, this breakdown is often tested with a rally that fails at or near support. This also represents a high-probability opportunity to sell short. Subsequent rallies during the markdown are usually feeble. Traders who have taken short positions can trail their stops as price declines. After a significant down-move, climactic action may signal the beginning of a re-distribution TR or of accumulation.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Oppollo
11
SPX S&P 500 2 Week ForecastTrump wants to win re-election. Trump can’t win if the US economy enters recession. The only way Trump can possibly avoid recession is if the Fed cuts interests rates now. If the Fed waits til the market has tanked in order to cut rates, it will be too late to avoid recession via monetary stimulus that point. Trump needs rate cuts now! In order to get this he is using the tariffs to tank the stock market now to force the Fed’s hand. The Fed meets June 19, July 19, and September something. They don’t meet in August. These next two meetings are important. I believe the SPX will find a temporary bottom right around this first Fed meeting in 2 weeks, for a 3% decline. If the Fed comes out with a surprise rate cut in June or July this could send the market higher (not much of surprise as probabilities are now at 80% for a rate cut in September but would still be a surprise). If the Fed does nothing I’d expect more selling & finding new support lower. If SPX continues selling after June 19, I’d look for support between 2550 & 2475. I don’t think the Federal Reserve would let the SPX get that low again though...
SP:SPXShort
by Hayekian_Fibonacci
1
Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 (SPX) Has Resumed LowerShort term Elliott Wave view on S&P 500 (SPX) suggests that it has resumed the next leg lower. The Index has ended the cycle from December 26, 2018 low after a 5 months rally. After topping at 2961.25 on May 1, 2019, it is now expected to pullback in larger 3, 7, 11 swing to correct the cycle from December 2018 low. We are calling the decline from May 1, 2019 as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. On the chart below, we can see the bounce to 2892.15 ended wave B. The Index has resumed lower in wave C with potential 100% extension target towards 2702.4 – 2738.4 area. The internal of wave C is unfolding as Elliott Wave impulse structure. Down from wave B at 2892.15, wave ((i)) ended at 2831.29 and wave ((ii)) ended at 2868.88. Wave ((iii)) is nesting and currently unfolding also as an impulse in lesser degree. Wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 2805.49 and wave (ii) of ((iii)) ended at 2841.94. Near term, while rally fails below 2841.94 in the first degree, and 2892.15 in second degree, expect the Index to extend lower.
TVC:SPXShort
by Elliottwave-Forecast