Spx500forecast
SPX S&P 500 2 Week ForecastTrump wants to win re-election. Trump can’t win if the US economy enters recession.
The only way Trump can possibly avoid recession is if the Fed cuts interests rates now. If the Fed waits til the market has tanked in order to cut rates, it will be too late to avoid recession via monetary stimulus that point. Trump needs rate cuts now! In order to get this he is using the tariffs to tank the stock market now to force the Fed’s hand.
The Fed meets June 19, July 19, and September something. They don’t meet in August. These next two meetings are important.
I believe the SPX will find a temporary bottom right around this first Fed meeting in 2 weeks, for a 3% decline.
If the Fed comes out with a surprise rate cut in June or July this could send the market higher (not much of surprise as probabilities are now at 80% for a rate cut in September but would still be a surprise). If the Fed does nothing I’d expect more selling & finding new support lower.
If SPX continues selling after June 19, I’d look for support between 2550 & 2475. I don’t think the Federal Reserve would let the SPX get that low again though...
Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 (SPX) Has Resumed LowerShort term Elliott Wave view on S&P 500 (SPX) suggests that it has resumed the next leg lower. The Index has ended the cycle from December 26, 2018 low after a 5 months rally. After topping at 2961.25 on May 1, 2019, it is now expected to pullback in larger 3, 7, 11 swing to correct the cycle from December 2018 low. We are calling the decline from May 1, 2019 as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. On the chart below, we can see the bounce to 2892.15 ended wave B.
The Index has resumed lower in wave C with potential 100% extension target towards 2702.4 – 2738.4 area. The internal of wave C is unfolding as Elliott Wave impulse structure. Down from wave B at 2892.15, wave ((i)) ended at 2831.29 and wave ((ii)) ended at 2868.88. Wave ((iii)) is nesting and currently unfolding also as an impulse in lesser degree. Wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 2805.49 and wave (ii) of ((iii)) ended at 2841.94. Near term, while rally fails below 2841.94 in the first degree, and 2892.15 in second degree, expect the Index to extend lower.
US SPX500 - Jaws of DeathJaws of Death pattern playing out on the US markets. Liquidity pumped into the system has driven the index on a fa-nominal move to all time highs. Now with a sell pivot now in place on the weekly chart and a trade war raging, the short plays first target is to the point of Control at 1806. The secondary target will be somewhere between 1237 & 950 level, which is back where price was that end 2008 GFC end.
SPY PITCHFORKS READY, WATCH THIS CHART Use this chart to your advantage. we got a GREAT BIG WEEK ahead of us...
S&P 500 MARKET CRASH 2019I see the opportunity to sell SPX
it is going down crashly
i think it is the end of up trend
now it is down only
enjoy
if you like my signal please help to like and follow
Thank you
S&P500 - BULLISHS&P 500 looks very bullish.
Target 1: 3550
Blue triangle indicates the current range.
Green box is buy.
Red box is sell.
Blue line indicates potential support/resistance .
Green line indicates t/p.
This is a log chart.
This chart is made using fib channels.
This is not financial advice. All charts shown on my page, including this one, are just for fun.
If you enjoy my ideas please give this post a like and follow my page if you would like to see future posts! :)
SPX 4h Sell the breakdownSPX starting to run out of steam and took out the highs look for sells on the breakdown for deeper correction.
SPY: Head and shoulders pattern on overbought market
2936 structure support level is on focus.
Sell the market as bears broke and close below this level.
T1 - 2922
T2 - 2912
targets are based on structure
SPX500USD ShortPlease see chart for brief opinion on what i think is happening. Enter and exit at your own risk.
DISCLAIMER
Please note that this chart is an opinion based chart only. Please trade at your own risk
S&P500, Key Levels to ConsiderAs title states, key price action levels to consider with regards to S&P500
S&P500 TD Sequentials, Aggressive 13 Has AppearedWeekly Sequentials have met a aggressive Green 13, this signals an upcoming price reversal likely to occur. This week ended concluding a reversal Doji.
SPX trade idea: Capitalizing on the potentially impending dropIt's possible that SPX price is following a corrective triangle pattern like the one depicted. If so then we can easily capitalize on it. Price would need to drop below price-point B to complete the pattern prior to resuming a bullish trend.
Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 Futures Eyeing New All-Time HighShort term Elliott Wave view on S&P 500 Futures (ES_F) suggests that the rally from March 9, 2019 low (2726.50) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. The Index is now within wave (3) which subdivides in 5 waves of lesser degree. In the chart below, we can see wave 3 of (3) ended at 2899.5 and wave 4 of (3) pullback ended at 2877.61.
Short term, index ended wave (3) at 2921.5 peak. Subdivision of wave 5 is unfolded as a 5 waves impulse of lesser degree. Up from 2877.61, wave ((i)) ended at 2900 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 2885.25. Rally to 2914.75 ended wave ((iii)), and wave ((iv)) ended at 2900.50. Wave ((v)) of 5 ended at 2921.5. Currently, we are in the pullback in wave (4) to correct cycle from March 25, 2019 low before the rally resumes. The pullback in wave (4) is expected to stay above March 25, 2019 low (2790.25) for further upside. We don’t like selling the Index.
Panic if SPX500 Moves Well Below 2870 and If Volume Stays LowIf a move below 2870 begins and starts to gain momentum to the downside, then we will start to see a head and shoulders pattern form which is exactly the same type of pattern that formed in the SPX500 right before the 2008 Financial Crisis. Keep in mind though, its not the intrinsic nature of a head and shoulders pattern to cause a downward move, but rather what the trading psychology of the pattern tells us about the broader market. In short, it suggests that the euphoric momentum that brought us to record highs can no longer be sustained. When we pair this with volume, we can see that this recent drive to record highs in 2018 is accompanied by significant doubt. Low volume in an uptrend is a big red flag. Oh and by the way, if volume does not pick up later in the day, it'll be the lowest daily volume since 2003. This is starting to become a real concern. So too would a head and shoulders pattern if it develops.
Long if We Surpass Records, Short if We CantThe S&P 500 is flirting with record highs again after a major correction last December which only missed becoming a bear market by a marginal amount ending just shy of down 20 percent. Going on to the 11th year in the bull market, investors should then take a look at where we could be and a few signals to determine where we are headed which can be found on Daily FX’s Discovery to Deflation chart.
If you follow the S&P 500 then you will notice that recent price action interestingly resembles areas around the the blow-off and transition phase. However, the problem with this road map is that we simply do not know where we are in the cycle. As of right now, either we are in between the bear-trap and renewed optimism, or we are between a bull-trap and THE lower-high or the final lower-high before a massive downturn (hence emphasizing ‘the’). If we look at the S&P 500 and the above chart, we can see where these levels could be.
Since this is the case, we are forced to look at some other signals. First, volume on average has been a noticeable step lower ever since December 2018 on either of the bull or bear side. Second, while the consecutive candle count shows a recent uptick in consecutive up days, the down days are much more volatile. In other words, it only took a few down days to correct almost 20 percent and three months to gain it back. In spite of this, while the downward volatility is extreme so too is the upward momentum. A near 20 percent gain in three months is incredible for any asset. Most mutual and hedge funds would be happy with 20 percent returns over 3 years let alone over 3 months. In other words, price action is incredibly choppy. Where are markets this choppy? Usually at the end of a bull cycle during what’s referred to as the distribution phase.
Yes, choppiness occurs during public participation phase as well, but the public participation phase occurs mid-cycle and not after ten years. There could potentially be what has been referred to as an elongated cycle. This is possible, but lacks precedent in the United States as the current bull market is now the oldest bull market in history coming in at 10 years.
Overall, a bearish view is not just predicated on these cyclical theories. We know global growth is already slowing. Germany just barely avoided recession this year while Italy is already in one. China may be in recession as well, but we wouldn’t know because they manipulate their data to such an extreme. Capital inflows into markets are significantly lower since the bull run began in 2009. Interest rates across the world are at 0 while the only hawkish central bank, the Fed, has reversed course on fears of the global growth slowdown. A common truism in trading is “Don’t short support, don’t buy resistance.” Maybe we can reach more record highs, but let’s not go all in until we can pass the current ones. If we don’t and pass below December’s levels, then markets will start to panic and you should too if you’re still in stocks by then.
Expect a Downturn in EM If you Expect a Downturn in the USIts not quite a great idea to invest in EM if one is expecting a downturn as EM will be significantly hit from drying up liquidity via outward capital flows and lower investment. Happened in 2008 with the liquidity crisis and again in 2011 with the EU sovereign debt crisis. We can see this relationship between developed markets and emerging markets through a correlation coefficient between the S&P 500 and the most liquid emerging markets ETF in the world EM. Moreover, EM is vulnerable to a Chinese financial crisis as well if the Chinese can't figure out how to lower their debt levels which they really havn't yet. Either way, I would avoid EM at these price levels.
Angle of the January-April Bull Rally Is One of Many Red FlagsSPX has trended at a 57 degree angle since the 2008 financial crisis. While trend line theory suggests any stock above a 45 degree angle is troublesome, perhaps the SPX is an exception. However, the current trend we are witnessing is at a 67 degree angle, suggesting a significant pullback is warranted. Take this with the global fundamentals (slowing Europe, slowing China) and oscillators which indicate overbought, SPX is probably in for a bit of a healthy pullback.
Panic If Price Action Does Not Blast Through Record HighsI just wrote a bit of a thesis on potential head and shoulders pattern forming in the SPX500. This is basically that same information, but without the head and shoulders pattern in addition to two moving averages, 200 MA and 200 EMA. Also, I have added a moving average on the volume. As you can see, it has significantly declined over the past year since volatility dramatically picked up in January 2018. Keep in mind, JP Morgan just asserted that there is a 70 percent chance of a recession in the next year. At any rate, here the rest of the content:
Not a perfect pattern, but few are. If the SPX500 does not reach record highs and does not go beyond those record highs with strong conviction, then it will suffer from the exact same chart pattern DJI did right before the 2008 Financial Crisis. If price action starts to move down then we would be witnessing a large head and shoulders pattern right into a financial crash or at the very least a large correction. We already know a recession is coming sometime in the upcoming year, but the question is when. However, that does not mean I am saying this pattern will form. I'm just saying its possible. And if it starts to form, be very very careful.
Also by the way, volume is super f word low right now probably indicating most traders are skeptical as to why they should buy at such high levels. It is the second lowest level of volume since 2006 with the lowest level of volume since 2006 only occurring last year. Big red flag guys and gals. Too expensive for many. Expect institutional traders to attempt to unload their positions that they too believe are probably too expensive.
V Bottom Bull Signal ?V bottoms are bull signals that suggest follow through to the up side if driven through resistance. Clearly, that's what we've seen over the past few weeks, but resistance breakthrough is not too strong. Moreover, we are seeing a number of minor pull backs without strong conviction beyond resistance. Fundamentals are key to SPX500 as well, so don't get bogged down in singular signals, but use that as a part of a larger strategy. For instance, stochastic tells us to expect a pull back, but the volatility of this oscillator suggests it could be brief which is the benefit of the stochastic. Finally, I have the Sharpe rolling oscillator which tells you if the asset is outperforming its year to date returns given a risk free 3 month return. As of right now, SPX500 is just barely doing this. Good luck trading out there ladies and gents.
For more, check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
S&P500 - Target 3100 I'm still bearish, but I believe price needs to move a little higher before the bears appear. A nice bull trap to break the all time high, before a reversal to the 1800 handle.
Calculating the mid point of the wave and using symmetry, the target should be around the 3100 level. Coming from another angle, I used another method to get close to the same result.
So the chart shows, both methods have a market top around 3000-3100. I have also drawn in the Elliot waves, which align with the mid point (wave 3). There has been no weekly or monthly sell pivot, and
with MACD indicator is confirming a continuation on the recent move up. Price still has more work to be done at higher prices.
S&P 500 short to 2734 points SPX price forecast fall
S&P 500 index pretty much peaked on 2734 previous value.
Now, made new high in a form 2856 peak which is nothing but new high which will hardly be surpassed now.
Stoch RSI confirms bearish momentum and projected bearish crossover.
I personaly don't see these price ranges sustainable in this form on this price range and i would suggest selling a position on SPX.
After short to 2734, probably lower high will follow, but right after further drop is expected since this high price index has not a single mathematical justification for " existance" .
Yet, it present, true, but only temporarily so buyers/shareholders will feel safe after previous price crash occurred on November 15.th onwards.
Index value can be used in order to manipulate with it on lower levels, therefore, i m expecting new low after this short and lower high.
Gradual drop forms should occur as decribed on an idea on SPX posted :
Regardless price index is being pushed or holders might think they've missed a chance, my personaly advice is to sell position rather to hold and drop with your assets.
Mathematical price range of drop which will be achieved will be sub 1867 points on SPX which represents significant loss and massive pullback built in phazes :
*2400 points revisit (buyer will tell " it's a higher low, we should accept it" )
*2200 points (expecting massive volume, fire sell and spiking on precious metals) since " players" want to reinvest in something stable.
*1867 points (as third retrace stage) making full retrace on SPX index which should play out in October 2015th and January/February 2016 and instead droping from initial index value (1867) points, index has been pushed by 50% (up to 2723).
Good luck
