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Spx500forecast

Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 Futures Eyeing New All-Time HighShort term Elliott Wave view on S&P 500 Futures (ES_F) suggests that the rally from March 9, 2019 low (2726.50) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. The Index is now within wave (3) which subdivides in 5 waves of lesser degree. In the chart below, we can see wave 3 of (3) ended at 2899.5 and wave 4 of (3) pullback ended at 2877.61. Short term, index ended wave (3) at 2921.5 peak. Subdivision of wave 5 is unfolded as a 5 waves impulse of lesser degree. Up from 2877.61, wave ((i)) ended at 2900 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 2885.25. Rally to 2914.75 ended wave ((iii)), and wave ((iv)) ended at 2900.50. Wave ((v)) of 5 ended at 2921.5. Currently, we are in the pullback in wave (4) to correct cycle from March 25, 2019 low before the rally resumes. The pullback in wave (4) is expected to stay above March 25, 2019 low (2790.25) for further upside. We don’t like selling the Index.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Panic if SPX500 Moves Well Below 2870 and If Volume Stays LowIf a move below 2870 begins and starts to gain momentum to the downside, then we will start to see a head and shoulders pattern form which is exactly the same type of pattern that formed in the SPX500 right before the 2008 Financial Crisis. Keep in mind though, its not the intrinsic nature of a head and shoulders pattern to cause a downward move, but rather what the trading psychology of the pattern tells us about the broader market. In short, it suggests that the euphoric momentum that brought us to record highs can no longer be sustained. When we pair this with volume, we can see that this recent drive to record highs in 2018 is accompanied by significant doubt. Low volume in an uptrend is a big red flag. Oh and by the way, if volume does not pick up later in the day, it'll be the lowest daily volume since 2003. This is starting to become a real concern. So too would a head and shoulders pattern if it develops.
SP:SPX
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Long if We Surpass Records, Short if We CantThe S&P 500 is flirting with record highs again after a major correction last December which only missed becoming a bear market by a marginal amount ending just shy of down 20 percent. Going on to the 11th year in the bull market, investors should then take a look at where we could be and a few signals to determine where we are headed which can be found on Daily FX’s Discovery to Deflation chart. If you follow the S&P 500 then you will notice that recent price action interestingly resembles areas around the the blow-off and transition phase. However, the problem with this road map is that we simply do not know where we are in the cycle. As of right now, either we are in between the bear-trap and renewed optimism, or we are between a bull-trap and THE lower-high or the final lower-high before a massive downturn (hence emphasizing ‘the’). If we look at the S&P 500 and the above chart, we can see where these levels could be. Since this is the case, we are forced to look at some other signals. First, volume on average has been a noticeable step lower ever since December 2018 on either of the bull or bear side. Second, while the consecutive candle count shows a recent uptick in consecutive up days, the down days are much more volatile. In other words, it only took a few down days to correct almost 20 percent and three months to gain it back. In spite of this, while the downward volatility is extreme so too is the upward momentum. A near 20 percent gain in three months is incredible for any asset. Most mutual and hedge funds would be happy with 20 percent returns over 3 years let alone over 3 months. In other words, price action is incredibly choppy. Where are markets this choppy? Usually at the end of a bull cycle during what’s referred to as the distribution phase. Yes, choppiness occurs during public participation phase as well, but the public participation phase occurs mid-cycle and not after ten years. There could potentially be what has been referred to as an elongated cycle. This is possible, but lacks precedent in the United States as the current bull market is now the oldest bull market in history coming in at 10 years. Overall, a bearish view is not just predicated on these cyclical theories. We know global growth is already slowing. Germany just barely avoided recession this year while Italy is already in one. China may be in recession as well, but we wouldn’t know because they manipulate their data to such an extreme. Capital inflows into markets are significantly lower since the bull run began in 2009. Interest rates across the world are at 0 while the only hawkish central bank, the Fed, has reversed course on fears of the global growth slowdown. A common truism in trading is “Don’t short support, don’t buy resistance.” Maybe we can reach more record highs, but let’s not go all in until we can pass the current ones. If we don’t and pass below December’s levels, then markets will start to panic and you should too if you’re still in stocks by then.
SP:SPX
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Expect a Downturn in EM If you Expect a Downturn in the USIts not quite a great idea to invest in EM if one is expecting a downturn as EM will be significantly hit from drying up liquidity via outward capital flows and lower investment. Happened in 2008 with the liquidity crisis and again in 2011 with the EU sovereign debt crisis. We can see this relationship between developed markets and emerging markets through a correlation coefficient between the S&P 500 and the most liquid emerging markets ETF in the world EM. Moreover, EM is vulnerable to a Chinese financial crisis as well if the Chinese can't figure out how to lower their debt levels which they really havn't yet. Either way, I would avoid EM at these price levels.
MIL:EMShort
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Angle of the January-April Bull Rally Is One of Many Red FlagsSPX has trended at a 57 degree angle since the 2008 financial crisis. While trend line theory suggests any stock above a 45 degree angle is troublesome, perhaps the SPX is an exception. However, the current trend we are witnessing is at a 67 degree angle, suggesting a significant pullback is warranted. Take this with the global fundamentals (slowing Europe, slowing China) and oscillators which indicate overbought, SPX is probably in for a bit of a healthy pullback.
SP:SPXShort
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
2
Panic If Price Action Does Not Blast Through Record HighsI just wrote a bit of a thesis on potential head and shoulders pattern forming in the SPX500. This is basically that same information, but without the head and shoulders pattern in addition to two moving averages, 200 MA and 200 EMA. Also, I have added a moving average on the volume. As you can see, it has significantly declined over the past year since volatility dramatically picked up in January 2018. Keep in mind, JP Morgan just asserted that there is a 70 percent chance of a recession in the next year. At any rate, here the rest of the content: Not a perfect pattern, but few are. If the SPX500 does not reach record highs and does not go beyond those record highs with strong conviction, then it will suffer from the exact same chart pattern DJI did right before the 2008 Financial Crisis. If price action starts to move down then we would be witnessing a large head and shoulders pattern right into a financial crash or at the very least a large correction. We already know a recession is coming sometime in the upcoming year, but the question is when. However, that does not mean I am saying this pattern will form. I'm just saying its possible. And if it starts to form, be very very careful. Also by the way, volume is super f word low right now probably indicating most traders are skeptical as to why they should buy at such high levels. It is the second lowest level of volume since 2006 with the lowest level of volume since 2006 only occurring last year. Big red flag guys and gals. Too expensive for many. Expect institutional traders to attempt to unload their positions that they too believe are probably too expensive.
SP:SPX
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
V Bottom Bull Signal ?V bottoms are bull signals that suggest follow through to the up side if driven through resistance. Clearly, that's what we've seen over the past few weeks, but resistance breakthrough is not too strong. Moreover, we are seeing a number of minor pull backs without strong conviction beyond resistance. Fundamentals are key to SPX500 as well, so don't get bogged down in singular signals, but use that as a part of a larger strategy. For instance, stochastic tells us to expect a pull back, but the volatility of this oscillator suggests it could be brief which is the benefit of the stochastic. Finally, I have the Sharpe rolling oscillator which tells you if the asset is outperforming its year to date returns given a risk free 3 month return. As of right now, SPX500 is just barely doing this. Good luck trading out there ladies and gents. For more, check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
SP:SPX
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
S&P500 - Target 3100 I'm still bearish, but I believe price needs to move a little higher before the bears appear. A nice bull trap to break the all time high, before a reversal to the 1800 handle. Calculating the mid point of the wave and using symmetry, the target should be around the 3100 level. Coming from another angle, I used another method to get close to the same result. So the chart shows, both methods have a market top around 3000-3100. I have also drawn in the Elliot waves, which align with the mid point (wave 3). There has been no weekly or monthly sell pivot, and with MACD indicator is confirming a continuation on the recent move up. Price still has more work to be done at higher prices.
SP:SPXLong
by TRADER-RI
1
S&P 500 short to 2734 points SPX price forecast fall S&P 500 index pretty much peaked on 2734 previous value. Now, made new high in a form 2856 peak which is nothing but new high which will hardly be surpassed now. Stoch RSI confirms bearish momentum and projected bearish crossover. I personaly don't see these price ranges sustainable in this form on this price range and i would suggest selling a position on SPX. After short to 2734, probably lower high will follow, but right after further drop is expected since this high price index has not a single mathematical justification for " existance" . Yet, it present, true, but only temporarily so buyers/shareholders will feel safe after previous price crash occurred on November 15.th onwards. Index value can be used in order to manipulate with it on lower levels, therefore, i m expecting new low after this short and lower high. Gradual drop forms should occur as decribed on an idea on SPX posted : Regardless price index is being pushed or holders might think they've missed a chance, my personaly advice is to sell position rather to hold and drop with your assets. Mathematical price range of drop which will be achieved will be sub 1867 points on SPX which represents significant loss and massive pullback built in phazes : *2400 points revisit (buyer will tell " it's a higher low, we should accept it" ) *2200 points (expecting massive volume, fire sell and spiking on precious metals) since " players" want to reinvest in something stable. *1867 points (as third retrace stage) making full retrace on SPX index which should play out in October 2015th and January/February 2016 and instead droping from initial index value (1867) points, index has been pushed by 50% (up to 2723). Good luck
SP:SPXShort
by milanjelic
18
SPX500 MAs All Show Buy, Most Oscillators Are NeutralIf you're a momentum trading loving moving averages, US indexes, particularly the SPX500 is for you. If you're more an oscillator guy, then its understandable how frustrated you may be lately. That said, we could be looking at former resistance as support, but we havn't yet touched previous resistance for this to be the case yet. Although, we are staying above it at least. This is good news, but don't look at fundies if you want a more positive note. I'm neutral with the oscillators then, but the chart its mostly the rosy picture. Good luck with your trades boys and girls. If you want more analysis and charts, check out my other content at www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
SP:SPX
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Former Resistance as Support? Now that we are above resistance, are we now about to conceptualization previous resistance as support? It's hard to say given the crazy amount of volatility around Brexit which will be coming if Parliament fails to pass legislation, or if US-China trade war is still on which is trending back in that direction, or if the Fed realizes that they want to actually cut rates towards the end of 2019 given the speed in which they transformed from hawks to doves. Long story short-->price levels to me are still uncomfortably high. I don't think the sky will fall tomorrow, but I'm keeping a close eye on the aforementioned global themes which move markets the most. If you find this analysis helpful, then please look at the rest of my work at www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
SP:SPX
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Bull Run Possible, But We Won't Be Up 5 Percent Tomorrow Volatility in either direction is lacking because markets don't know what is fully thrusting them forward right now. Something like the Shanghai Composite is much easier because its more based on speculative appetite than fundamentals. Even if you're a bear though, we have at least about 1 or 1.5 percent more until we hit a level of resistance below the record high. If record highs are resistance then we have 1 or 1.5 percent more after that first level of resistance. Overall, the macro fundamental picture is a bit confusing. Brexit, but likely trade war resolution. Global slowdown in Germany and China, but dovish monetary policy in the most hawkish central bank in the world (the Federal Reserve) oh and by the way that central bank is also the head of the world's largest nominal economy in charge of the most used currency in the world. But also ten year bull run, but Australia has avoided recession for 27 years and the US tends to lead the world into recession, not follow it into one. If you're confused on what the global macro trend is then, its excusable. I'll say this--I was a bear when we were below this huge resistance, but now that we are above it the argument is a bit more difficult. Let's just see where the data is headed so there is a more clear picture. For more analysis, please check out more of my content with plenty of charts at www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
SP:SPX
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
2
SPY - Weekly Review Feb 25 - Mar 01The chart from Feb 25 showed the support and resistance zones for $SPY for the coming week (link in related ideas). SPY started the week with a gap up right into the red resistance zone but couldn’t hold and sold off after hitting the upper trend line. The next day it held on to the support 1 level identified on the chart and tried to run for the resistance zone but couldn’t. Started the Wednesday with a gap down but managed to close above the support 1 level and also above the lower trend line. On Thursday, it gapped down again and closed below both the support level and the lower trend line which looked quite bearish, but overnight price action was very bullish which resulted in a gap up today (Friday). Today was interesting. Gapped up in the red resistance zone, couldn’t hold, sold off first half of the day, bounced right from the support 1 level and managed to close the day above the lower trend line and right at the start of the red resistance zone. As expected, this red zone is going to be a troublesome area. Today’s candle looks to be a doji which means no body. Let’s see what next week brings.
AMEX:SPY
by Blackhole-Trading
S&P 500 technical analysis: Key info for Swing Traders Conclusion for today’s S&P 500 forecast: Price closing below the 1 hour bullish trendline that is confirmed by momentum provides a sell signal. SP:SPX trend analysis for today is examined today on an intraday timeframe (1 hour) with coverage of price action over the past 4 months. Two (2) major formations on the 1 hour timeframe to pay attention are the 1 hour timeframe bullish trendline and overhead resistance (supply zone) for the SPX 500. The former highlights the build up of bullish momentum from December 26, 2018 to current date, while the latter (i.e. between 2818.85 and 280.36) indicates price region that must be overcome for the current bullish price swing to continue towards the previous price high of 2939.86. In other words, price action closing above 2818.85 (upper boundary of resistance) does increase the chance of continuation of higher prices in the SPX 500. A close below the bullish trendline is bearish with 2349.33 offered as the minimum price target for the SPX 500.
SP:SPXShort
by Coin_Analyst
Beginning of a Violent Crash for SPX?Looking at the SP:SPX 1-month chart, I’m seeing some strong indications pointing at SPX being at the top of a potentially violent crash. Evidence For – Indicators that Support SPX Being at the Beginning of Crash: MACD Support Trendline: Broken with Some Distance – In the previous two crashes, the beginning of the crashes coincided with the MACD support trendline (red) being broken (with a reasonable amount of distance from the trendline). This has already happened on the 12 MA (cyan). Also notice, that both times in the past two crashes, the 12 MA (cyan) tested the MACD support trendline, found resistance, then dropped. Could see that play out soon. RSI Wave 5 Support Trendline: Broken, Tested and Becomes Resistance – Though the 2000 crash didn’t create an Elliot Wave Pattern on the RSI, if we create a support trendline (pink) on the RSI that corresponds to Wave 5 on price, you can see this pattern of broken, tested then resistance occurs. 2007 is even clearer. To me, where we’re at now, looks very similar to 2007. Price Wave 5 Support Trendline: Body of Red Candle Breaks Through – In the previous two crashes, the beginning of the crashes coincided with the price support trendline (pink) in Wave 5 being broken with the body of a red candle. In 2000, the price did not come back up to test the trendline as resistance, in 2007 it did, currently it’s on its way to test it for a 3rd time. Perhaps it will even test it a fourth time if it can’t breakthrough this time or perhaps breaks through briefly as it did in October/November. RSI Correction Wave A: Distinctive “E” Shape - All three patterns create a distinctive capital “E” type shape (green rectangles) to start out Correction Wave A, with the bottom of the “E” defining the resistance trendline (purple) in 2007. Angle of the trendline in 2000 wouldn’t have been far off if drawn there either. While I’m guessing this is not a common pattern used in charting, it does seem to be a pattern. Evidence Against: Indicators that DO NOT Support SPX Being at the Beginning of Crash Bollinger Bands/EMA: No Bounce Off EMA – In the two previous crashes, the following occurred with the correction wave – 1) correction Wave A completed at the lower BB 2) shot up to the EMA (middle yellow line) 3) Bounced off the EMA - completing Wave B. This go ‘round, 1) and 2) occurred, but instead of bouncing off the EMA to complete Wave B, it blew right through it. Perhaps it will bounce off the Wave 5 resistance trendline (pink) though like it did in 2008 or perhaps we’re still in Wave A and need to test the lower BB again before starting Wave B. MACD Support Trendline: 26 MA Hasn’t Broken Through – The 26 MA (purple) has yet to break through the MACD support trendline (red), even though the 12 (cyan) created some good distance. Not too worried about that though – the MACD on the daily chart looks poised for a crossover to the downside, and the 12 MA on the weekly looks like it’s ready to start heading down as well. I’m not a pro trader (YET). This is not investment advice (AT ALL). I’m just a guy who has spent a lot of time learning about technical analysis in the past 18 months or so. I would really appreciate any feedback, especially if you disagree with anything so I can see the other side or if find anything technically wrong with this chart that would help me improve going forward.
SP:SPXShort
by JDCryptoATX
7
Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 (SPX) Rallies as an ImpulseSince bottoming at 2346.58 on December 26, 2018, S&P 500 (SPX) has rallied 18% in less than 2 months. The structure of the rally appears like an Impulse Elliott Wave structure. An Impulse structure is a 5 waves move. The Index is now within wave ((3)) of the possible 5 waves move from December 26 low. Subdivision of wave ((3)) unfolded as another 5 waves of lower degree where wave (3) ended at 2738.98 and wave (4) ended at 2681.83. Wave (5) of ((3)) is currently in progress towards a potential target of 2781.12 – 2811.77 (blue box). The Index should then pullback in wave ((4)) to correct wave ((3)) rally from December 28, 2018 low (2397.94). The pullback should later unfold and find buyers in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing. In Elliott Wave Theory, wave 4 typically correct wave 3 at 23.6 – 38.2 Fibonacci retracement. We need to wait for wave ((3)) to complete before we can project a more accurate retracement area. If we assume wave ((3)) ends at 2781 (the blue box), then potential area for the Index to end the wave ((4)) correction is approximately 2635 – 2691. Once the Index ends the correction, it still has a chance to extend higher 1 more leg in wave ((5)). Alternate view suggests that the Index ends wave ((5)) already in the current rally instead of wave ((3)). In the alternate view, Index should correct the entire rally from December 26, 2018 low in the next pullback.
SP:SPXLong
by Elliottwave-Forecast
SPX approaching resistance, potential drop! SPX is approaching our first resistance at 2817 (78.6% fibonacci retracement, 100% fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) and a strong drop might occur pushing price down to our major support at 2616 (38.2% fibonacci retracement). Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is also approaching resistance and we might see a corresponding drop in price should it react off this level. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Tickmill
1
S&P 500 dead cat bounce and collision to 2400 points and lowerWhen talking about S&P 500 as per graph logg we could make conclusion that this was "dead cat bounce. Daily MACD confirms further bearish momentum. RSI turning against. Further fall is imminent to 2400 points. Important thing to say which is subjective opinion, but previous results add weight to expertise: * S&P500 suggested retracement at the Ocotber 2015 and on Janury/February 2016 being worth 1867 points. That was mathematically justified peak of S&P price index. Instead, we had " push" to 2.700 points. Presumably because Bezos bought Washington post 2013 while calling for buy of his shares. In practical terms after posting on twitter 15.th of November TA about S&P and NDAQ collision, people were in denial. However, index value fell from 2723 points bellow 2400 points making 11,5% fall X 24 trillion USD=2676 billion USD loss achieved on SPX from 15.th of November to end of December. Value of previous drop on SPX surpasses GDP of Germany, France, Italy or Russia. Now, we have pretty much same situation. After " dead cat bounce" i am expecting confirmation of 2400 level, therefore i would short it from this position with very narrow s/l placed. S&P 500 peaked by any parameter. Stochastic RSI turning against (peaked already) whether daily/weekly basis. MACD implies for weekly bullish crossover which might cause some kind of pump (therefore S/L is placed very near to 2720 index value). Having on mind that even current S&P500 index value is actually gifted price for uneducated, i would recommend every shareholder to clear his position in order to avoid buying on " right shoulder" SPX will continue to make lower highs (probably this one which will retrace back to 2400) points making 2500 billion US dollar loss and right after new lower high and further collision which could actually trigger massive selloff and price dumping whether we are talking about SPX, NDAQ or DJI. S&P500 index has no healthy grounds for this index value and further fall is imminent all the way down to 1867 points which is 33% additional fall in Index points. Money which is used for pumping index over " mathematically justified price peak=1867" points could now cause yo yo effect and cause massive reversal and selloff. As long banks or big holders are willing to pump price, it will be so, but, as time passes, it becomes more and more expensive to maintain artificial price as this one. Gold and silver are the only safe storage of value. Everything else will collide. Good luck to everyone.
SP:SPXShort
by milanjelic
57
S&P 500 - Sharp Fall, Distribution, Trapped Retail Traders I dont need to speak much on this one, please look at the previous data to help find a high probability outcome here. The world is in a shamble with PLENTY of fundamentals that are not positive right now, the stock market will crash its just a matter of time. As we can see we have had a nice recovery of 15% which is sitting right at an optimal entry point for retail traders to long, but actually a smart trader would be taking short positions here. Which is exactly what we are going to do. Short the S&P500. .705 Fibonacci Level (Optimal Trade Entry) *Shorting after a recovery ( Plenty of stops were taken out and retail traders believe the market is recovered and is looking healthy, when in reality institutions are dumping bags) Dont be fooled. The Sharp Move will follow.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by TheBigStepper