SPX - Enjoy the rally while it last!For those who have been here since 2022 early 2023 when there was so much fear in the market and we called the market had bottomed. I think it was the right call, even though we had a lot of naysayers. Now I think we are nearing the end of this rally which I estimate will be sometime in February 2024. I have two outcomes the green line below which I highly favor and believe that is the path and the grey line which is definitely possible but unlike in my opinion due to election year. Also it looks like we are following the cup and handle. I have also explained in my other ideas why I think we are like in 1990 and 2012 (base on the fear). If the grey line happens, Biden loses the election guaranteed so I am certain the fed will hold the stock market at least until after the election.
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Spx500forecast
S&P 500 FORECASTThe current bearish trend is projected to reach 5280 and 5266 if the price remains below the pivot point at 5300. However, if it breaks above 5300, confirmed by a 4-hour candle closing above this level, it could potentially target higher levels at 5311, 5328, and then 5345.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 5300
Bullish Lines: 5311, 5328, 5345
Bearish Lines: 5280, 5266, 5220
SPX500USD - Bullish Momentum UnderwaySPX500USD has been undergoing some bullish momentum over the last few days. This may lead to a potential push to the $5350 region over the next few days. Further movement will take time to tell; but overall it’s currently looking good.
All 4 of our Core YinYang Oscillators and exhibiting Bullish Momentum; however since there is such low Volume, it’s hard to say how strong this momentum will be. Nonetheless prepare yourself for a potential movement upwards in the short term.
THREE BLACK CROWS appear on the S&P500In the weekly frame on the S&P500 index, there is a pattern called three black crows and it is a bearish pattern that will lead to a downward move in the upcoming weeks.
in July and August 2023, the same pattern happened and the market rebounded for two weeks then the downward move began to make the index retrace about 9%
As we can see on the chart the index stopped at the Fibonacci support level in August and last week also, so we expect the rebound will be to the 5208 points level and a new correction will begin.
S&P 500 In Trouble The S&P 500 is showing signs that the uptrend is becoming fragile. As you can see there is a very clear rising wedge pattern developing on the daily chart this is a classic bearish reversal pattern and it indicates a shift in supply and demand from bullish to bearish as the buyers can no longer keep prices propped up. This pattern is not confirmed yet as it has yet to break the bottom support trendline but it still can act as a stern warning to be careful going long here.
The bearish signal in my opinion would be a break of the bottom support on large volume this would signal traders are beginning to panic and exit long positions and the selling cascade can have a big impact. Target wise If it does break down I think a retest of the previous all time high makes sense but if you want to go off the technical price target it would technically be at the bottom of the wedge at $410 which is bold...
RSI is also showing bearish divergences popping up and we are very extended away from the 200 day moving average it is no surprise to say that stocks just may be overvalued and far too extended and probably ripe for profit taking.
Also on the fundamental side of things inflation has been coming out sticker and not coming down as seen in the recent CPI and PPI reports which dampens the expectations of early rate cuts and continues to support the "Higher for longer" narrative which again is not a good thing.
Overall I am thinking this is looking extremely dangerous and based on technical and fundamental factors I would absolutely not be loading up on fresh longs especially on leverage I would tread carefully and consider thinking twice before you make a decision.
CBOE:SPX AMEX:SPY CME_MINI:ES1!
SPX OULOOKSPX FEB WEEK 5 OUTLOOK -
Daily - no doubt we have been super bullish here on SPX for last few week going back to December. but it's around the seasonality cycle and on daily TF that it looks in need of a pullback.
Origin - 2 scenarios become apparent when we drop down to origin.
1. a small pull to the zone** 5065.01 - 5027.94** and hold above it. if that happens I will look for longs above the higher end of the zone
2. a deeper pullback to **4972.61 - 4951.93** and if price gets absorbed here, I will look to enter long once price holds above the upper end of this zone.