SPX 500 - Running flat or Expanding Flat in the making SPX 500 is currently correcting, since we broke the top there can only be 2 possibilities for this correction - either a running flat or expanding flat depending on whether C wave breaks the A wave low or not.
Short the breakout for nice short setup SPX. Expect this move to be swift very similar to one we got towards the beginning of the yr.
Spx500forecast
Timing the Next Market Top; Don't Wait Too LongI keep narrowing my projection for the top of the market as more days elapse and more data comes in. I have been contrarian to the 'pundits' and still strongly believe the market will top before the end of 2018. I am right now projecting a near-term top to occur by the end of this week or beginning of next week around 2930. This will wrap up intermediate wave 3 which is presently in minor wave 5, minute wave 5.
I have intermediate wave 4 ending down around 2841 around October 5, 2018. After that, the final market top should occur between November 1 and November 16, 2018. The final top should occur slightly above 3000. I initially forecasted the top above 3100, but do not see the top occurring higher than 3070. All of these moves can be monitored in the interactive chart below. The white box was one of my more recent projections, but the green box is my current forecasted zone for the top.
I recently published my article detailing 8 stocks that have been great forecasters of market tops. These symbols indicated the tops in 1987, 2000, and 2008. The full article is free as always at ElliottWaveIdeas.
S&P500 Entering Our Buying Areas Soon?Hello Traders,
S&P500 Elliott wave view suggests that the pullback to $2803.34 low ended red wave 2. Up from there, the rally higher to $2917.50 high ended black wave ((i)). The internals of that rally higher unfolded as impulse structure with the sub-division of 5 waves structure in it’s each leg higher i.e blue wave (i), (iii) & (v).
Up from $2803.34 low, the initial rally to $2874 high ended blue degree wave (i) in 5 waves structure. Down from there, the 3 waves pullback to $2846.25 low ended blue wave (ii). A rally higher from there ended blue wave (iii) in another 5 waves structure at $2906.25 high. Below from there, a pullback to $2894.25 low ended blue wave (iv). Then finally a rally to $2917.50 high ended blue wave (v) & also completed black wave ((i)).
Currently, the instrument is doing a black wave ((ii)) pullback against $2803.34 low in 3, 7 or 11 swings before further upside is seen. Near-term focus remains towards $2852.74-2843.31, which is 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of blue wave (w)-(x) to end the short-term correction.
The Index should find buyers from there looking for another extension higher or for minimum 3 waves reaction higher.
SPX500 Sell setting upSPX500 trading in a multi-days bullish channel with tops and lows. Price action is compressing near the resistance area. Chances are it continues compression a little further. Momentum is getting weaker as well so I am looking for a strong break. If you have your trading strategy watch out this market for shorts.
Trade Safe!
Future Target Extensions on SPX using Wicks and ClosesJust posting this so I can refer back to it later. These are the extension targets for SPX based on the future price target projections pulled from the January 26th peak. The index broke out the descending triangle so at the point of the breakout I have the High to Low measurement in yellow, and the High Close to Low Close measurement in bright blue (with the extensions in matching colors). *Note - Failed pattern breakouts tend to deflect at these extension levels, so just because the measured target is high, doesn't necessarily mean that the price will reach this level.
SPX500 Big ShortSPX500 have reached to its prior highs and a successful attempt to break highs have just been made, but i am wary of the market to reverse from here since momentum indicators supporting my view. I am looking to short this market, if you have your trading strategy, better go for short setups.
Trade Safe!
Recession is Coming? A deeper SPX analysis w/ Spectro™ M This study uses Spectro™ M
Hey guys, Specter here, and this is a nice and controversial topic that I'll enjoy spending my time writing such a big public report. Plus, I love seeing some conflict in the comment area.
The first premise; basically, I only trade in general using my Spectro™ M indicator and I like to keep things as simple as possible, so we have to walk around some of the features displayed on the chart otherwise you understand much.
The blue background means a reversal zone. As you can see it has been popping up a lot lately, and if you observe past data you will see there's only so much it happens before a reversal of some sort.
The big scary "RED TRIPLE TRIANGLES" mean that Spectro™ M confirmed a reversal consensus on more than 20 indicators.
Since Spectro™ M is using the conservative version of the X Confirmations(the scary triangles) so it checks all the 20 indicators and if they agree with each other it will be displayed on the screen.
So whatever you use, RSI, STOCH, DPO, CCI, MFI, OBV...whatever, it's all in there and they are all saying: Yo! It's oversold.
As you can see it predicts reversals before they happen with a high precision.
Plus, we can see a possible double top coming, another good reason to pay attention. My double top numbers show close to 60% precision rate over 10 years of trading.
If you paid attention, there's a reason I said reversal and not correction and why I used the word recession.
Let's zoom out and analyze the bigger picture, take a look at NASDAQ, DOW30, NIKKEI225, DAX or FTSE100 - just those one featured by Tradingview.
For those who have no idea what those are, those are basically an average of the WHOLE industry of a country, SP500, NASDAQ and DOW30 are americans, NIKKEI225 belongs to Japan and FTSE100 belongs to UK.
If you analyze all of those you will notice they are all kind of topping - that's scary.
Plus after 2008, we've been pretty much on an insane ride up, no major corrections.
Going a little philosophical: some believe that the market works in cycles and we are supposed to see corrections after a certain time like 7 or 8 years, it all depends on what book you read. What I'm trying to say is that we're 10 years away from 2008 and still no correction.
You don't have to believe me, but you really fucking should believe in Ray Dalio, if you don't know who he is - you sure as hell should if you're in this game (I recommend the book Principles wrote by him).
I won't get in details but he ran one of the most successful hedge funds of this era and predicted the 2008 crisis and he wrote a BADASS report about it which he was kind enough to translate it to this video:
www.youtube.com
So I'm just saying...
I really wanted to diversify(and actually have some fun building because I think real state sucks as an investment) buying property and the very reason I'm renting now and not buying is that I'm afraid of that correction.
Also another food for the thought, there's this amazing article wrote in 1996 by John Rothchild:
WHEN THE SHOESHINE BOYS TALK STOCKS IT WAS A GREAT SELL SIGNAL IN 1929. SO WHAT ARE THE SHOESHINE BOYS TALKING ABOUT NOW?
This article presented me one of the most reliable indicators I use, the "shoeshine" guy. It could be your taxi driver or your barber - for me was both.
Not enough space so let's carry this on to the updates.
Liked it? Give it a shot at, it's really affordable - you wouldn't believe if I told you: hypester.org
E-mini S&P500 in phase of uptrend. (26/07/2018)Sure the "Flat" model and Bull's "Cumulation Balance" on ES is over.
Near month, Bulls can retest & breakthrough the historical peak 2884.50
I decisively, take a long position for 2900.00;
"Short term target": 2900.00 - 3000.00.
"Middle term targets": 3200.00 - 3300.00;
"Long term targets": 3400.00 - 3500.00.
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S&P500 ready to DROPS&P500 fell sharply earlier this year, still this market is under correction until it breaks the top. But for now price action is stalling around the top of the multi-days channel, i am expecting a drop to at least test the $2,674 area. Look for sell setups if you have your trading strategy.
Happy Trading.
SPX Elliott Wave Analysis: Calling Correction LowerHello Traders,
In this Elliott Wave analysis, we will have a look at the SPX Index.
SPX short-term suggests that the rally from 4/02/2018 low to $2792.25 ended the blue wave (1). Down from there, correction against that cycle remains in progress in 3, 7 or 11 swing structure. Also, it’s important to note here that the decline from $2792.25 peak shows an overlapping price action thus suggesting that the correction is taking place in a corrective manner i.e either Double three or Triple three structure.
Down from $2792.25, red wave W unfolded as a double three structure with a combination of 3,3,3 swings in each leg. The black wave ((w)) of red wave W ended at $2743.10, black wave ((x)) ended at $2774.86 and black wave ((y)) of W ended at $2698.67 low. Up from there, red wave X bounce remains in progress to correct cycle from 6/13 high ($2792.25) where black wave ((a)) ended at $2746.09 and black wave ((b)) completed at 2710.93 low.
Near-term focus remains towards $2745.34-$2756.41, which is the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement area of the cycle coming from $2792.25 high to black wave ((c)) of red wave X.
Afterwards, the index is expected to continue lower in red wave Y to correct cycle from 4/02/2018 low. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback.
S&P500 possible turning bearishMy previous call on S&P500 longs around 2692 almost have met the target of 2800, not yet hit that level but almost reached it. We may see it may test that and roll all the way back. For now- it seems like it is likely to complete the correction and i am expecting a big move to be setting up to test the lows over the coming weeks or so. So i should be looking for sell setups here.
Check out my twitter for my trade results and updates.
Happy Trading.
UPDATE: SPX500 looks great, review at $2785Hi guys, thank you for the support! I will have this analysis out each weekend as well as daily updates throughout the week, if you guys like what I'm doing hit the "follow" button and you will get a notification each time I post a video or chart!
Have a great day everyone!
Elliott Wave Analysis: SPX Close to Ending A Cycle from 04/02/18Hello Traders,
In this short-term analysis, we will have a look at the SPX 0.45% in the 1 hour Elliott Wave chart. At this moment in time, the near-term cycle from 4/02/18 low (2555) remains in progress as a 5 waves leading diagonal .
Up from 2555 low, it has ended red wave 1 at 04/18/18 peak (2717.67). From that top, it has ended red wave 2 correction at 05/03/18 low (2593.98) and from that low, it has ended wave 3 at 05/14/18 peak (2742.10) and wave 4 correction at 05/29/18 low (2676.25).
While SPX 0.45% stays above 2676.25 low, the index is expected to see 1 more push higher in wave 5 to end the cycle from 04/02/18 low before starting its correction in 3-7-11 swings. The right side remains to the upside. Therefore, we don’t like selling it and prefer buying wave (2) pull backs in the sequences of 3-7-11 swings
Quick short trade on /ES miniFibonacci tells me it would go at least 38% retracement range of 2685..
I think a short trade placed at 2710 with stop loss at 2715 and profit target of 2685 would yield more than 1:4 risk to reward trade..
Disclaimer: this is no recommendation for any trade. I am using it to track my paper trade prediction performance
Elliott wave analysis of SPX (S&P 500): 4hr tfMy previous post for the SPX (S&P 500) can be found here:
A possible Elliott wave contracting triangle was discussed in the post to capture price action from January 29, 2018 to April 25 when the analysis was initially provided.
SPX (S&P 500) currently is sitting just above B-D trendline for the contracting triangle. The relative strength index (RSI) is also shown here and does have a rising, positive slope, which argues for more upside movement in SPX (S&P 500).
The projection of price action using this Elliott wave structure still stands as provided in the previous post.
The ideal point of entry (POE) is placed at ~$2718.73 (dotted horizontal line) when price action attempts a break out above the termination point of wave D of the contracting triangle.
The point of invalidation (POI) of this analysis still stands as provided in the previous post.
S&P 500’s (SPX) Elliott wave analysis: 4 hr tf analysisPrice action for the S&P 500 from January 29, 2018 till present date has been captured in this analysis using a contracting triangle Elliott wave structure. The implication of this structure for the S&P 500 is that price should resume its bullish trend once a breakout occurs out of the triangle. Breakout point as used in this analysis is ~ $2718.51
The post thrust measurement (target area) for the bullish interpretation can be calculated by measuring the width of the triangle and projecting it on top of the breakout point.
The width in this case is 2863.99 – 2533.29 = 330.70
A vertical projection of the width above the breakout point means that the S&P 500 should target ~ $3,049.21 (330.70 + 2718.51 = $3,049.21).
The point of invalidation (POI) of this analysis is a price close below ~ 2542.92 at which point the wave E would have overlapped wave C, which is unacceptable for a contracting triangle.
SPX - Half Way ThereThis is a re-post of a chart from one month ago after the dow dropped 700 points in one day. My extrapolation from that post compared this to 1987, in which there was a 2 year run up, and then a quick crash which erased 1 years worth of gains.
While this 2018 crash appears to be slower in time than 1987's two month crash period, the charts nonetheless look the same to me. If we extrapolate, then SPX's current price has only reached half way to where it will eventually bottom out, which should be around 2380.