The S&P500 is preparing for an insane rallyHello Traders and Investors,
My name is Philip and I am a German swing-trader with over 4 years of trading experience.
I only trade the higher timeframes, preferably the monthly chart, because this allows me to capitalize on the major market swings.
I view trading as a long term game over the next 20 years which will help me to build massive wealth - it is not a get rich quick scheme.
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Today I want to share with you my outlook on the S&P500:
Over the past almost 15 years the S&P500 has been respecting a super simple bullish trendline. Always when the S&P500 tested this level, we saw a major rally towards the upside. And now the S&P500 is about to retest this trendline again and I do expect another push higher.
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Most of the people always follow the quick money. But the quick money is never the big money.
They think that making 5% a month consistently is reasonable, which is one of the reasons why so many traders fail.
The only think which you can control is your risk, everything else is unknown.
Keep your long term vision!
Spx500forecast
SPX500 Bearish Reversal , Time to fall Hello traders as you can see in my analysis it seems like spx500 has changed from an uptrend to a down trend forming a head and shoulder a classic bearish reversal pattern .
i believe the price is being influenced by the dollar monetary policy and the situation in Palestine so watch out for that .
but technically speaking , the price is coming down.
please share with me your thoughts below .
$SPX: The S&P 500's Key Yellow Resistance TargetIn my previous update I discussed that SP:SPX has lost a key support level in the orange support zone. SP:SPX was sitting under resistance as investors waited for Friday jobs data. The strong jobs data led to a spike back up and SP:SPX has successfully regained support at this orange zone again. My current price target for SP:SPX is the yellow resistance trend line.
SPX - 02/10/23 - TRADE IDEASSPX- 02/09/23
**Trade setup:** Seems to be holding the $4250 area really well, will look to test again to see if they take it out.
We have completed the head and should pattern I identified on the 18th of SEPT now we are holding nice in this area so I will look for another test of $4250 to look for a structure break on the 15 min to enter a long.
If it doesn't hold I'll then reverse my thoughts and take a short to $4168 area the next higher low from the move upwards.
Now the targets are below:
**Bullish target:** $4325
**Bearish target:** $4168
**Supply and Demand**: The nearest Demand to keep us up is $4250. The next Supply is $4525.
#SPX up or down?#SPX perfect dump from my 4600$ target
Perfectly came to my 4280$ price level and bounced.
Currently, on the weekly chart we can expect some bounce up to 4395$, where I highlighted a new resistance level for Bulls.
Where I would wait for bullish confirmations on LTF, to be sure that the price can go higher. Otherwise we can expect strong bear reaction that will lead the price back to 4200$ and below.
So, I highlighted 3 possible scenarios for #SPX:
1. #SPX bounces and breaks above 4395$, eg, closes with 4H, 8H, 12H, D candle above that price, in this case, new ATH will be reached.
2. #SPX comes to resistance 4395$ and rejects, in this case it can dump till 4161$ where I expect another bounce.
3. #SPX rejects from 4395$ and comes to 200 ema on W TF - 3856$ where it will be last chance for Bull to take the control in the market.
SPX Market Crash (upcoming) - 35% why?Hi Everyone,
A summary of the last 5 recessions since 1981... These recessions triggered declines of at least 20%. The Great Recession from December 2007 to June 2009 was the one that most affected the market with a decrease of about 57%. Regarding macroeconomics, the Americans are currently implementing a monetary tightening policies and have announced a final interest rate hike before the end of the year, so in my opinion, a recession is now inevitable.
The SPX is currently forming a tweezer top on the 3-month timeframe... In my opinion, a 35% decline is possible to test the M Neckline (entry gate).
S&P 500 ForecastS&P 500 moved towards the 3980 level as traders prepared for tomorrow’s CPI data meanwhile, the tech heavy NASDAQ Composite was up by 0.4%.
Today’s rebound is led by energy stocks. WTI oil managed to get above the $73 level as traders focused on the Keystone pipeline outage.
From a big picture point of view, S&P 500 continues to consolidate in the range between the support at 3915 and the resistance at 3975. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional momentum after the CPI data and the Fed decision. If the CPI report shows that inflation is slowing down, the current consolidation will serve as a good base for an upside move. However, it should be noted that traders may remain somewhat cautious ahead of the Fed decision.A move below the 50 EMA, which is located near the 3915 level, may be interpreted as a sign of an upcoming sell-off. S&P 500 received strong support near this level, so traders may rush out of their long positions if this support level is broken
we still in down trend and we should break the yellow line and back 4100 level
The Fed is still playing catch up to tame rising prices after its protracted gross mischaracterisation last year of inflation as ‘transitory’ and its initially timid steps to withdraw monetary stimulus,
The world’s most powerful central bank is now confronted with two unpleasant choices next year, crush growth and jobs to get to its 2% target or publicly validate a higher inflation target and risk a new round of destabilized inflationary expectations. I think Rather than fall to 2-3% by the end of next year, U.S. core PCE inflation will probably prove rather sticky at around 4% or above.
SXP500 Index 30/08 MovePair : SPX500 Index
Description :
Bullish Channel in Long Time Frame and Rejecting from the Upper Trend Line Completing its " 3rd " Impulsive Wave. We have Break of Structure and Making its Retracement in Corrective Waves " ABC " . Possible Rejection from Fibonacci Level 61.80% or Previous Resistance
SPX S&P 500 Fell down after the U.S. Credit Downgrade As I said in the last SPX article, the S&P 500 experienced a notable decline of 10% within three months after the previous U.S. credit downgrade:
Now it seems like SPX, the S&P 500 index, started to follow the pattern.
According to the past retracement, this time the Price Target of SPX is $4080 by October.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SPX to new highs SPX loves cups and handles.
All the highlighted Cup & Handles on daily have played out beautifully so far, they all have been to the upside so far, but now we are making one to the downside with targets towards 4150. Then how do we reach new highs?
If we zoom out to monthly TF things become clearer. As long as we stay above 0.5 or close above it on monthly, we have a chance to make new highs in a year or so.
I have highlighted several upside targets based on where we bounce from on monthly.
Corrections do not last long. This one might ass well be overJust by simply measuring the previous corrections in the stock market, it is clear that corrections in general do not take long. The average size corrections seems to be between 3 and 5 weeks.
The botom of the current correction is found in week 4. As the price is also holding a critical support level, the probability of this being the bottom is incredibly high.
With Bitcoin finding a bottomg as well (these two markets are correlated), I believe that this is the bottom of the current correction.
SPX Further Downside Incoming (1D)SPX Daily
Price Chart
After the recent bounce of the level of resistance (Red Box) the SPX snapped it's first small level of resistance (Teal Dotted) and has continued lower. Price has also closed below the 50-day EMA while the 12-day and 26-day have recently crossed and the 50-day flattens out. The next level of support (First Green Box) should come into play within the next several days, unless we get a big sell-off Friday and hit it today, but this is the first area we expect to see a bounce. Also notable is the minor trend line (Yellow Dotted) that has been broken which should lead price action to eventually come in contact with it's major trend line (Yellow Solid) again.
Relative Strength
Not a lot to show here, however there have been two significant moves. First is the rejection of the 50 level (Aqua Circle) and the second is the break below (Aqua Highlighter) the major trend line (Yellow Solid). Both of these moves fortify the recent price action and indicate further weakness in trend.
On Balance Volume
OBV broke out of it's downward trend back in May (Yellow Solid) and started trading in an upward channel after. There hasn't been a reversal formation, but there is a small breakout forming (Aqua Highlighter) that coincides with recent price action and RSI movement. More evidence of an upcoming bounce is seen as a level of resistance is also being approached (Red Solid)
TLDR;
Dang man, talkin' bout no time man, dang ol' markets bleedin' man, come on up or dang ol' down man. Uh.. yea.. We think we understood that. Anyway.. Price action is on it's way down to a small level of resistance where we could see a bounce. RSI has bounced down off the 50 level and has broken down from it's main trend line; signaling a move lower. OBV has just begun to move down out of it's upward channel and also faces a level of resistance that could lead to bounce.
What Seems Legit?
A bit more of lower movement to hit the levels of resistance outlined above, then further downside
Chart Key
Yellow Solid = Major Trend Line
Yellow Dashed = Minor Trend Line
Red Solid = Major Support or Resistance
Red Box = Resistance
Green Boxes = Supports / Target Areas
Teal Dotted = Small Level of Resistance
Aqua Highlighter = RSI / OBV Breakouts
Where to from here on SPXI posted this chart few weeks ago as a follwup to my short to show few possible paths SPX is going to take after it begins the descent and SPX has followed the one where I explained about a possible break of the channel into the deviation below. please refer links below the description to look at my previous posts on SPX short idea.
The only difference is that , this happened bit slowly than I anticipated , which makes this drop out of the channel less likely to be a deviation now.
As you can see we are bouncing from the Suupport zone as I had highlighed in my previous post.
Which brings us to the question where to from here.
On The Daily TF we have first hints of a reversal or a decent size bounce from here , We have bounced from a key support and ended the day with right candle stick on the daily, but we need one more day of price action to confirm the reversal. If we get another green day without breachnig the low we are likely to head up.
But If we zoom in to 4h TF things become clearer.
Lets Look at the follwing chart:
On Friday we broke structure to the upside on 4h and created a strong low at 4336. That number is not random , Will cover this in the next chart.
If we get a pull back and break higher than fridays high we will get a full Change of trend on 4h TF. Once we do we should be able to break all the 4h strong highs until we meet the Daily Strong high at 4502 which is what I think will be hard to break and we will get a strong rejection from there. From there we can do one of the two things , either come back down create a double bottom and try again to break the daily high at 4500 and continue higher. If not we will continue the daily trend by breaking 4336 low and head lower.
Now lets look at why price bounced from 4336. Following chart has the answer. If you know VPA , then you know price moves in ranges , just like candle stick patterns are fractles , Ranges can act like fractles as well. In the chart you can see There are 3 ranges R1 , R2 and R3 that formed on this uptrend. R3 is the larger range that encompasses R1 and R2 and 4336 is the VAL of this bigger range and as Per VPA theory , price in a range keeps roughly bouncing between VAH and VAL of the ranges .If you look at the VAH of R3 it concides precisely with the Daily strong high at 4500 which gives us another conflunece for a rejection there into the Daily OB shown in previous chart.
Finaly if throw regular old fibs and Gann Fan into the mix we get additional confluence for a rejection at the 4475-4500 region as shown in the chart below. 4475 rehion is a gann resistance and 4475-4500 0.5 to 0.618 region of the retracement.
Speculation:
If we do get a move like the one I have explained , i.e move to 4500 area and reject , we will have few pattern emerge like inverse H & S and cup and handle . I have highlighted the targets if they mature. But always remember all these patterns are pure manipulation to trap retails , it totally possible that there is a fakeout into the pattern where pa comes to lower 4300s and then reverses from there can creating yet another pattern a Double bottom so be careful , only trade confirmations based on market structure change.
Happy Trading All !!!
SPX at major and important resistant Area SPX Reached the major Resistance Area ( the one that start the last bear market )
4600 IS A VERY CRITICAL area because all the target for the current movement has been reached.
the Market start the trend at 44° then become overheated and reached almost 72°
from my point of View the market need to cooldown in order to extend a healthy movement
the best option is to reaccumulate 4080 Area
the good news is every ware at he moment so be carful and activate your stop lose Level to protect your gain from any shakeout movement.