SPX crucial support 3636Weekly closing price is the price available for the world for two days.
It is the maximum resting time of a stock or index price, than daily or even monthly.
All investors ,traders, institutions, owners are scratching their heads for next action
So we have some logics;
Every thing is out, inflation, rate Hike, corona lock down, supply chain lock , BUT remember market is already factored in.
public is under fear of recession, market collapse ,thanks to Media for over shouting .
what they will do? they wait for Monday to sell their stocks
what smart BULLS do? they will always act fast before the public realizes
they BUY at low level (market oversold to the level of 2015 )
As per EW counts, 'Y' wave will end at 3636 (X*1.618)
as long as this level is supported by smart BULLS, we have another new Rally
Spx500long
SPX - RSI Analysis Two periods can be observed on the RSI for SPX on this 3Monthly chart
A downward trend which correlates with a sideways move on the relative timeframe
And a small uptrend that correlates with sharper growth on the SPX, these begin within the green circle
These green circles show very comparative structures, however one is during an up period, while the current one is during a sideways trend period
Price will very likely continue through the up channel on this larger timeframe
SPX Long Term View 4300 becomes the main resistanceMy weekend update is a day early, I will update those who are on my list with a bit more details on shorter time frame view tomorrow.
We are in a bear market and those 5500 callers got destroyed all the way down calling every bottom from Jan.
This is my long term view and I think we have bottomed here today or super close to it!
I got targets for the potential bottom left, all SPX:
- 3643 (came super close to it today)
- 3688.50
- 3555
We clearly had 5 down or A completed on this move! Now the time for the B (still think this will be an ABC correction going into Mar of 2023)
My main target now is 4300, down from 4425. Extension target now is 4425-45 down from 4600
110MA (descending every day) becomes the main magnet for the move up to hit at least
I got 2 main targets to hit for the C, one in Oct/Nov of this year and next one is Mar of 2023.
Ideally we see the first target hit and then some sort of damage control move into the EOY close and finish up in to 2600 handle (2800 at min) in Q1 of 2023.
I was saying for a while now, that the whole move from 2020 will be erased this year, its getting supper close to it now!
That yellow dotted line is line in sand for the bears and bulls, break it above and test it from the top will make me change my view to the whole view and look higher.
Before it happens its the main line Im paying attention to now.
Have a nice day
P.S. next week should rally up and ideally we make a higher low end of the month before the window dressing rally
SPX Swing/Investor TradingAs we fall Sharply On the SPX, we can assess where the monthly Trend Trader would look to start to get long..
Remember, yes it MAY correct further. But as always its a MAY based on TIME. Ultimately, as lots of harmonic Traders look for are Very long term targets. Hitting these is also inevitable and realistic, but it must be matched by CORRECT position size VS the time it takes to get there.
Sometimes its BETTER to be in and than out based on your capital available.. If you are out and waiting for an absolute ultimate price.. You will be waiting a while mostly because it has to occur on the HIGHER Timeframe charts.
As with most equity markets you will see them RISE as World economies grow. Scaling in and taking gains On the LONG side is an option so much as you have good Risk management. This entails Hedging where necessary and appropriate position Sizes VS account Equity.
SPX is at the bottom of the channel again! Bottom Alert!SPX supports for today are 3689 and 3678
Today must close above 3710!
Its at the bottom of the channel and lots of support is right here and now.
Im out from my overnight short and not taking more of those at the point.
Closing below 3640-50 will trigger a crash, Im not in that camp but something to watch!
Im expecting a trip back to the mid channel (around 3900) by the end of the next week, starting tomorrow
Must hold the opening lows!
SPX UpdateDoes look like a gap up tomorrow to my eyes. I got some lotto calls for tomorrow/Fri
Support 3775SPX
Overnight support ES 3770-80 and 3745
Main resistance is 3885SPX and one more at 3855SPX
Im mostly bullish, will add if we get another weakness tomorrow am.
Might update the chart with more info later on
SPX rejected both 3710 and 3730SPX support, tomorrow will gap upSPX rejected both 3710 and 3730SPX support. Maj daily support was 3710.
Tomorrow should gap up. There is a chance we still see my 3696.50 tomorrow, but in idea we should gap up tomorrow and repeat the Mar Fed day.
Im out from 80% of my short, and keeping only core longs going into the FED day.
SPX gaps to close are:
- 3900
- 4017
Failure getting above 3957 after the FED will get us another washout to 3665-68SPX
Ideally we gap up tomorrow and make a higher low after the announcement. As the hike is already priced in imo
SPX - one more possible target - 3696.50One more calculated target for the potential low of this move is 3696.50
Im expecting a run up after the FED back to 3975 or so and make another low to 3665-68 or 3696.50, it might make a higher low, but the pathway is the same.
Then summer rally after the July 4th weekend
Significant BottomThis chart shows the baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud for the monthly candle of the S&P 500 (SPY) ETF. We've finally reached a level that virtually always supports the S&P 500 outside of recessions. It is likely that prices will find a significant bottom here. However, if inflation continues to spiral and prices drop significantly below this level, then it is quite likely that the economy will enter a recession (if one hasn't already begun).
SPX leaning bullish for todays close going into tomorrowLevels of importance are:
- 3805
- 3885
Im looking for a move up to close the gaps up to 4k into the FED or right after and then sell off to 3665 zone I mentioned in my yesterday's update
The full wave, which is making the 5th now if EWT talking could extend all the way to 3581.5, quite close to me other extension target of 3555, something to watch in case we wont close the 4k gap after the FED!
SPX close levels of importance - 3749 and 3805!3855
3805
3789.50
3749.50
3694.00
This is getting close to a capitulation move. Closing at the lows will get us lower open, ideally we get up off the ground into the close.
Its time to start scaling in with longs with potential move down to 3665 and even 3555
The move up in summer will be at least back to 4300 to ideal 4425SPX
SPX is looking for the 5th down or completing the C wave downIm not an EWT expert but this looks to me like completing the 5th down or the C wave of the bigger A wave down!
THIS IS THE BEAR MARKET!!! 6th month and rolling now. All those 5500 coo-laid smokers were destroyed 6 months straight!
Typically the bear market is lasting 2 years, I expect the maj low in Q1 next year. Its 6th onth now, so this move down should follow by a very strong rally soon (Mar like)
The FED is on Wednesday and I will not be in short or be short on that day or maybe even since Tuesday!
We closed below 3909SPX on Friday, targets 3850 or lower (warning email was send to my email list people second part of Fri).
ES already below 3855
3855 is the maj resistance now with following 3885-4k zone.
I got several targets for this move down:
- 3805-09SPX maj support
- 3765-80SPX
Some other calculations are pointing for much lower levels!
- 3665SPX level and,
- 3555!!!
Something to be open mined to. Ideally we hold 3800 handle, below is very bed!
Notes from the chart
4170-90SPX is the main resistances now
Resistance - 3855; 3885-4kSPX (must hold for continuation lower)
- Low target for tomorrow 3805-09, 3780SPX - Buy if seen in am, dont buy if we see higher first
- 3818-20SPX mid support,
- 3805-09 and then 3765-80 zone is the maj support zone
Buy zone for tomorrow with stops!
- 3805-09SPX
- 3850 and 34 must hold on any try or it falls apart (main support, not expected to get hit any time soon)
Short
- no short on the FED day or even after Tuesday
- 3855SPX and 3885-4k, no short above 4025
- Low (intraday) was on the 12th (about to get renewed);
- Long from 3855-65SPX zone (email was sent when the price was at 3867-68SPX)
Larger ABC pathway down into Oct/Nov low or more of the year is in play imo Final target in 3000-3200SPX zone
Potential 5 waves down is forming! Next mid Jun low can be lower low! Have to be careful with sizing
SPX is on the way to 3885SPXWell we blow all of the supports I was looking to hold. I got also stopped on my NQ short at 12330Jun right before the move. ES was short but covered at 54.
Im seating on my hands and looking for 3885-89SPX to hit to go long.
We should bottom before the FED next week and rally hard to 4300 into July 4th, maybe even 4425SPX
4215SPX will the be the main target on that move up.
Supports on the SPX are 3929, 3908 and 3885-89SPX
Weekly support which must hold is 3853SPX, closing below will get us to low 3800 and ultimately to 3775SPX.
My view is that we will hold 3885SPX, but dont rule out a test 0f 3850.
Ideally we just blast from am lows and finish the move down on Monday/Tuesday.
SPX 2 pathwaysIm watching 2 numbers - 3980 and 3950SPX (there is 4008 as a smaller degree support, so far held AHs in futs)
We should hold the am low and rally um into Monday high.
2 pathways:
- either we get to test 4077 (after 4008 or 3980test in am) and decline lower into Monday to 3950
- or just blast up into the 13th high, can stretch to 4215SPX for a fake out move I'm looking for
SPX support is at 4077 and 62, Im leaning bullish from the openIm long here, tight stop, next long will be at 77 and 62 respectively.
The bulls are running out of time to push higher, the max Im expecting is 4215 or so test as a fakeout move and then a full retracement down to 3885.
Hard market to trade, unless you trade the range, which is not easy as well. Probably will stay in one till the DEF meeting