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Spx500long

Likely 700 point drop looming, but this is very bullishI continue to run more models. My models are like the cones of uncertainty when forecasting hurricanes. The more data that comes in changes the cone. In this case, this chart is completely different from the one 2 weeks ago. That one saw the end of Grand Supercycle 1, this one still has us in the final Cycle wave 5. This model also projects Grand Supercycle wave 1 will not end until early-mid 2022, but more will be published on that later. My prior model was not completely wrong as the major crash is looming, it is now just delayed for another 18 months or so. This chart is using similar models to project Intermediate waves 3, 4, & 5 (which are annotated in the white text) and another one to project Primary waves 1 & 2. The end location for Intermediate wave 3 is based on 110 data points. It is even possible this wave 3 ended with the close of trading yesterday which could start a 150-200 point drop over the next 7-13 days. Intermediate wave 4's end dates and points are separately based on 150 data points. Wave 4's have an average and median drop of around 41% the entire movement of wave 3. Wave 4 will give way to a nice jump slated to top right before election day in the U.S. Intermediate wave 5 is based off of 190 data points and tends to be the most accurate in all of the models I run. The end of Intermediate wave 5 is also the end of Primary wave 1. There is some overlap in the projects for the intermediate and primary waves. The most accurate projections are for the intermediate waves due to the amount of available data to determine those dates and price levels. The yellow text primary waves are larger targets because less data was used to obtain them. The biggest data points for the yellow primary waves comes from one main area. The fifth wave typically accounts for 15-20% of the bigger wavelength (with a consistent average & median around 18%). Theoretically Cycle wave 5 will last around 18% of Supercycle wave 5's length. 18% of projected Supercycle wave 5 is 610 trading days. 15% is 491 trading days. My current projection has Supercycle wave 5 ending (which is also the end of Cycle wave 5) in 2022. I will go into greater detail about these points in the future. The primary waves were calculated solely based on the 491-610 trading day length of Cycle wave 5. Each wave tends last a similar ratio to the larger wave it trades inside. This is how the yellow text was calculated. Wave 1's tend to last ~29% of the larger wave, 2 is ~12%, 3 is ~37%, 4 is ~5%, and 5 is ~17%. These values are not found in any book, they are from nonstop studies of millions of data points my programs have been running. The 700 point drop in the title speaks of my current projection from the end of Intermediate wave 5 / Primary wave 1 right before election day and through the first quarter of 2021. My website will go into much greater detail about the drop and whys. Leave comments if this analysis was helpful and thanks for reading.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
2
SP500 (Y20.P3.E2).Still bullish but a correction soonHi All, Looking at the chart from a channel perspective, one can see that the price action is over extended with a daily and what looks like the weekly, both with bearish divergences. One will then expect sooner or later for it to return to the average, in this case, towards the mean of the channel. I believe a double top is taking place and if we see the indicators cross over, then that is the signal for a down ward correction. Just like Gold or BTC , I don't see a big correction. I believe we will still have upward pressure based on the indicators. OBSERVATION: ================================================= > The price is completing a double top with a bearish divergence on the daily > The price is over extended to the 3rd deviation of the channel > Looking at the weekly indicators, we can see the orange energy below 60%, showing downward pressure is close near by > We have the green rsi almost touching the red, another downward pressure indicator near in the making > Since both RSI's are above 50 or 60%, we know at this time, that the pullback will not so deep, at this point > The Stoch . is close to crossing over, the signals for a downward motion. THOUGHTS: ================================================= > Price will likely move towards the 21, 34, (black ribbon) or the 50 EMA , which are all within the channel, 1st deviation. > Along with the fib. retracement, its my opinion we will make a small dip below the support line touching one of the moving averages. Please give me a like or tick for this post. Regards, S.Sari 8 HRLY chart Close up view on the weekly
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by ssari
SPX Pullback This Week Expected (600-1000ish pips)Short Term: Bear Long Term: Bull Unknowns: Fundamentals (Stimulus talks/reaction to gold creating instability in the dollar, Crude Oil Inventory Wednesday, Unemployment claims Thursday) For the past week and a half we've had a good bull run on the SPX. I myself made plenty of good trades and was able to hold the position and ride the wave. But I'm afraid it might temporarily be over. I've outlined the impulses/rallies in blue and the pullbacks in gold going back to June. After our last major resistance turned support (designated in the pink bordered box) that area was never retested once it left the building. After the big dip on the 11th creating and creating a new high on the twelfth, you can see the RSI and MACD see a shift in momentum. I drilled a little deeper into this segment here. SPX did not create a new high and side stepped the channel we've been following for the last two weeks. Which means another channel will be forming and I have the idea in the original chart. I believe we'll be following that channel probably making a few big drops along the way to the 3290-3280 area. Which would currently give us roughly 880 pips. What will be interesting to see is how it reacts with the 3330-3334 level. It is possible for that level to maintain support as it moves sideways. But I believe that is highly unlikely. Instead I believe it will drop through that level and retest for the sell down to the 3280 area. The two scenarios are loosely depicted below. What I'm personally hoping for is a quick/deep re-tracement bouncing off S/R levels along the way in which I will setup a sell down to the 3280 level for the major sell that would look something like this. Lastly I had to take a fibonacci re-tracement into consideration. The 3280 level sits just above the 618 re-tracement as is with the current high and 3280 being "1" fibonacci level. It would not be surprising If we see bullish action and a new All Time High (ATH) created around 3205 come Sunday/Monday that would then push that 618 re-tracement level up to match the 3280 level. This would be the ultimate trade scenario and such a scenario would be as follows. The one thing that could happen that I'm not considering is if we fall straight through that 3280 level. So I'm not going to worry about that. Thank you for checking out my analysis! Let me know what you think, please and thank you.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by BodiesXWix
The August SPX ChannelIt hasn't ventured out of the channel yet since thee beginning of the month. It's been very predictable and easily tradeable this week as long as you're paying attention to the support and resitance zones that it continues to create as it works it's way through the channel. However, we're nearing the ATH and I'm curious as to if we'll see if the resistance force of the ATH (3398.2) will knock it out of the channel. I've set many buy limits when it makes its small predictable dips at the end and/or beginning of the day. They'll eventually trigger the entry and continue on. I'm not a position trader, but I have been placing many positions in SPX the last 2 weeks due to the predictability. But now a new frontier is just at the heed. We could see the classic Squeeze play that may end up in the channel creating a new all time high looking something like this. Or we could see the price action bounce otside the channel from the resistance of the ATH. Retest that high as a double top before making a correction. That nay look something like this. I'm Personally Bullish and I'm setting another buy limit around here and hoping to be apart of the new high when it happens. I see the support line at 3362 and it may dip a little lower, but that's where I expect my next entry. A couple of Scenarios to think about. The best thing to do is not overthink it. Not predict price but react to it. My personal opinion is that it's been easy to set buy limits at support levels and continue riding them up. I don't see why this would be any different.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by BodiesXWix
$IWM Financials Bull Run - Component #2 AMEX:IWM As we continue to embark on this epic economic bubble , there will be varying components that will be mixed in so the trend can continue. To allow some normality to the markets, profit rotations still seem to be taking place and tech seems to be the one market that is becoming exhausted. With that said, I think we continue to see those absurd profits roll into financials and small caps, allowing $IWM to be a benefactor of that, which the technicals are starting to show. With that thought in mind, looking at the chart you can clearly see a strong bullish breakout, with volume (last green volume bar to the right) from consolidation and our first attempt at breaking the first red trend line. I expect us to retrace a bit from here, and each red line there after once contacted, but also fully expect us to make our way up to at least the $170 region (3rd and final red trend line). From there, in J. Powell we trust and Gods speed. I leave you with this, "cut your losses early and let your profits run" - J. Livermore - PennyBag
AMEX:IWMLong
by PennyBagsCapital
SPX To Retest Highs From Early June At .618 Fib Level To Go LongWe've seen a steady increas of SPX (S&P500) Over the last few weeks, This particular level is of great interest as it not only retests the highs from early June and is less than 20 pips from the 618 level of the fib retracement of the most recent higher high and higher low. All whilst still following the channel. If this comes to fruition, we could see a steady climb back of domincance in the SPX/S&P. Added Plus: President Trump speaks today after market close so we could see this news push it in the direction intended for these purposes. Really keep an eye out on this one. A lot will ride on it.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by BodiesXWix
S&P 500 - Volume absorbing Tesla buy into the index?If you didn't see the article, it's on Apple news that Tesla would be Joining the S&P 500. The article stated that a spoekseperspon from the Dow S&P Declined to comment. An analyst said that if it were to happen that the S&P would try it's best not to let it affect it's performance. >>>> apple.news Are we seeing this play out with the large amounts of volume in play, sprinkled here and there, with ver little price action. Are they trying to hide the buying of Tesla shares, while at the exact same time the same amount of buying into the index from the large players? If this speculation is true. I would eventually see it relax down to with a big push to the downside to 2984 or 3035 (Where previous downpushes were made) before skyrocketing up above 3250? Looking at it from a 2 hour chart >> << You can barely notice the increase of volume compared to the last 2-3 months. But I watch the S&P at market open all of the time. And when I see this amount of volume there is usually bigger price action than just 15-20 points. Getting that news from yesterday while noticing these unusual pieces be put together could mean something bigger is coming for the S&P? What are your thoughts?
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by BodiesXWix