Critical Move For The Markets. (SPX)We are watching this compression point currently under this horizontal Resistance level.
Paying attention to the upward support that we are approaching after breaking our first price average as the candle crosses over the black line.
We hold that as bearish movement.
Would like to see it crack and have a nice Retracement.
50% short. Playing roughly 3% stop-loss, we will stay on top of it and see how she wants to move.
Have an awesome trading week! Cheers. ✌😁✌
Spx500long
Did We Bottom in the S&P 500?Bullish:
5 waves off the lows;
Some huge caps are bullish (AMZN, GOOG...);
Prices squeezed between the daily and 4H Vegas waves and still not dumping;
Hidden bullish divergence on the 12H RSI;
Daily RSI bear market resistance around 50 seemingly reclaimed.
Bearish:
Geometry is horrible (upward pitchforks median lines untouched, prices channel well);
Volume is anaemic;
June VIX futures at support.
Analyzing recent moves on SPX - in bulltrend with bearish signalWe saw last week 2950 was a super strong resistance. We tested it three times in a few days.
This level coincides with the Weekly 200 EMA and the 100 Daily EMA. Also it has been a strong S/R historically.
After being rejected for the third time, SPX lost it’s support and broke through the support trendline formed by the early march low and a low early may. This support was tested 3 times this month and showed promising. Now it failed to hold.
We see SPX fell down and was caught by the support trendline formed by last 2 low’s and supported by the Daily 200 EMA. SPX is now heading up again, hoovering at the 50 Weekly EMA.
We are still strong, bullish trend is not over, but the speed of the move down was significant, showing some bearish strength. However, it is very important to note the bears were not able to realise a new local low. First we need to make new low’s before any real bearish sentiment can be confirmed.
I have no clue where SPX will go and this post is purely analyzing where SPX went and found S/R.
Personally I think it's about time to get some correction downwards, but only time will tell if the bears are strong enough.
SPX: Potential Corrective Trend 1D (May 12)X Force Global Analysis:
The S&P500 index has been showing a clear bull trend for the past few weeks. However, as the "V" shape recovery takes place, we witness a weakened bullish momentum, and a probability for a corrective trend to take place. In this analysis, we explore the bullish and bearish technicals to determine the probability of a correction.
Bullish Evidence
- First of all, it's important to note that we have broken through the descending trend line resistance, marked in the dotted red line
- In doing so, we have created what looks like a reverse head and shoulders pattern, a bullish reversal pattern
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a clear uptrend, with higher lows
- And the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still demonstrates bullish histograms after a golden cross
Bearish Evidence
- However, based on Elliott Wave counts, there is a probability for a corrective trend to take place
- We have seen a clear Impulse Wave count (12345), and are expecting a Corrective Wave (ABC) to play out, possibly down to the 0.618 Fibonacci support
- The MACD is looking for a death cross, with decreasing bullish histograms
- It's also important to note that while we have been in a bullish trend for the past few weeks, the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) Ribbon has not converged yet
- Thus, solely based on the EMA Ribbon, it's too early to confirm the continuation of a bullish trend
- Moreover, we are not only testing the upper Bollinger Band resistance, but the band width is also narrowing
- The narrowing of the band width usually occurs before a big move
Market Sentiment:
Surprisingly, the market sentiment still remains at fear, as we are at 44 on the fear and greed index. This indicates that the market participants are cautiously bullish.
What We Believe
We believe that a correction is highly probable, based on Elliott Wave counts, and a number of other bearish indicators. However, should we see further bullish momentum from this point, it could serve as a confirmation for a continuation of a bullish rally.
Trade Safe.
It all comes down to this point - the battle for 2900.We are approaching an exciting moment. A big battle in the far right corner, with SPX retesting the support line it broke out from last week, and meanwhile finding support on exactly the same level on the trendline going from the low late march to the recent low’s early may. A downwards trendline. An upwards trendline. Colliding.
And that exactly on the 2900 level. How is it possible? I don’t know.
Where will it go? No clue.
Should we step in if it breaks out? Hell yeah.
The battle of 2900.
This is the moment that waiting is more important than action.
LONG MCDKeep your trading simple
Bullish Swing
T1 = minimum risk reward 1:1
I always leave 1/3 of my position for long term gains - moving my stop to my entry if I need to give room for the volatility or using trailing stop for maximum gains.
For maximizing your profits you can use Options.
Not a financial advise just my view - trade smart trade safe.
Follow me to support my work, Thanks!
H&S SPX, High R/R sell opportunityIn my previous post I indicated my change in sentiment from bullish to bearish because of two trendlines that were invalidated due to new local low’s. I initiated a good sell zone in the top blue bar, given that price would move there.
Yesterday we saw a strong rally up, moving into my sell zone, and even beyond. Instead of heading to my aimed level of 2885, the high around mid April, the bulls pushed it through till 2900.
I do not sell before I see confirmation/reversal. There was an early sign of reversal on the 5th of May at 05:00 but it was not strong enough for me to enter. Now, after a night of sleep we see market pushed till 2900, and got rejected. A perfect head and shoulder pattern is forming with rejection of the major psychological 2900 level.
We are still in my sell zone box after rejection and a correction downwards. For me that is enough indication to sell.
Sell at 2865, with a SL at 2905(tight) or 2925(wider) and a TP of 2755(tight) or 2670(wider).
This 2670 is the Weekly 200EMA and the 0.618 Fib retracement with the March 2180 low as starting point and last week's 2970 as high.
Below you can see my analysis from last post, waiting to see correction upwards to enter a sell:
Careful! Sign of strength in SPXIn my previous post I indicated a good R/R sell opportunity. A small update now given the latest development.
We see SPX is retracing back up. It found support on a trendline (clearly testing it), and locally we do not see a lower low but a higher low. It seems SPX is gonna test the resistance of the right shoulder top(orange line) that was recently formed. However, if it finds again support on the trendline it is a good opportunity to battle to new local high's.
I'm not saying the good R/R entry is invalidated, but a signal of strength has been given by the market with the higher low/support on trendline. Be careful. Let the market give clear signs of direction first - one of the two drawn scenario's - before you take position.
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Today we are looking to see if the uptrend can continue with the S&P (SPY, SPX, SPX500USD, etc). Longing the uptrend in equities has been profitable recently, let's assume that trend continues and talk about entries, exits, and key levels.
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1. S&P is currently in an uptrend within a channel as illustrated on the chart. We recently saw a reaction off the bottom of the channel which produced a long signal.
2. With the strategy in use we want to go long ONLY when Fractal Trend signals an uptrend (Green background color) AND Breakaway Scalper then signals an uptrend (Green bar color).
3. With a long signal having been recently produced, we are watching R1 and R2 for reactions. If rejected at R1 we will watch for a retest of the trend line or even a trip down to S1. If price can get past R1, then the levels to watch above are R2 and R3.
4. If the uptrend channel is broken, S1 and S2 are the next levels to watch for support.
5. Regardless of which way the price goes, we will be using the built in trailing stop on Breakaway Scalper to reduce risk and lock in profits if we move to the upside.
Buy opportunity - SPX retracingYesterday we made a new high at 2970, bullish signal. Of course, we see retracement.
Looking at the hourly graph, we see SPX is retracing towards 2850, the high off 14th of April and the battling around the same level early March.
Since RSI on hourly is getting oversold now, and we have a trendline starting on 7th of April and being tested twice, this could act as support. On top of that, we see the Daily 50 EMA coincides with this trendline.
Two supports and oversold market, a strong uptrend last month: seems a good level to buy.
If you want to be long, buy 2850 for guaranteed position, or wait for 2820 or 2800 for better entry.
Profit level for small trade: 2900 (Daily 100 EMA)
For more profits, and risk, profit level around 2930(0.618 fib level), 2950 (Daily 200EMA and Weekly 50 EMA), or around 3000-3100 if you are very bullish and can accept the risk.
Note that I am aware we broke out of the rising wedge yesterday, which is a bearish signal. We can trade down very fast, but I think we will see the bulls fighting back after breaking this wedge. Therefore, the long idea.
For a short opportunity, wait for retracement up to one of the profit levels mentioned for my long trade, and short. Could be a fantastic trade risk/reward wise.
S&P 500 Index (1H) / Primary Apologizes for the change in colours, I will try to keep a more standardized format from now on between the cash and the futures S&P 500 indices. We have a clean 5-wave move in green 1 or red A. Futures are down in pre-market, we might not get our 7th swing to make our pink flat X possible.
SPX - battle at 2900 - where will it go?Minor update for what is going on with SPX. I was bullish SPX and I believed the wedge outbreak on the downside was a false breakout, thus invalid. That made me update the previous wedge.
We see SPX is hovering around 2900 level(Daily 100EMA), and it is caught between the Daily 100 EMA and the Weekly 100 EMA. In a wider band we see it is caught in between the Daily 50EMA and Weekly 50EMA.
Around the 2930 we see Fib 0.618 retracement and around 2950 we see Daily 200EMA and Weekly 50EMA. Given all these levels, there is a lot of resistance and therefore I expect heavy battling around the 2950 zone. For good sell sentry, sell around 2950 with SL 3050 and TP 2850.
We will for sure see retracement from 2900 levels. On a small scale, back to 2850, on large scale, potentially 2800. With the new highs however, I do believe we will test 2950 and potentially break it.
The interesting zones are indicated by blue boxes.
One trade idea could be wait for retracement and buy around 2850 with SL 2775 and TP 2950.
With strong believe, enter anywhere long in the blue box and aim for 3000-3100. Why not wait for retracement? Good exit is far more important than good entry.
Note that my long term view is definitely bearish. I just think we are just not done yet with the uptrend.
Trade well.