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Spx500long

Trump PumpLet's face it. The dude is a master at manipulating the markets and the markets eat it up. But regardless everything is pointing towards this "mini deal" and apparently that's enough good news for everyone to pop champagne and shoot for net ATH's. Today we opened right where we left off after a WILD night in the futures markets and sure enough we ran up to test the top of the symmetrical triangle channel. On SPX it's a lot more pronounced, i will post the chart below. Remember SPY price is still a little skewed from the dividend payout a couple weeks ago. The downtrend line acted as perfect resistance on SPX after multiple stabs at it. But honestly the hopium is extra strength right now and i think people are just looking for an excuse to send the market higher. Either we gap over the downtrend line in SPX and over the resistance at $294 and make a run back towards $300 or all these theatrics with this trade deal unravel before our eyes and we're back at $290/$2900 and honestly both are completely possible. At this point technicals are being washed out by the news flow, but also there aren't any negative divergences or anything to note a bearish case. You could have taken an objective short at the top of the symmetrical triangle for a scalp but with the way this market is right now i'm pretty sure everyone has PTSD. I do have resistance pegged at the $296 level where the intermediate uptrend line acted as resistance before and also have it pegged as resistance in general. Check out the SPX chart below to get a better idea of the downtrend resistance.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904
5
Interesting last minute sell off. So we did end up gapping above and into the symmetrical triangle and testing the intermediate term trend line for majority of the day after grinding through it on a low volume/algo pump. It's almost as if everyone had to go collect their thoughts and lick their wounds after the past couple days. But after grinding higher most the day on half avg volume we had an interesting reversal in the last 15 minutes of trading that gave us a bearish engulfing on the hourly that landed smack dab on the trend line. That candle was also 2x the avg vol. Could have been everyone GTFO so they don't have to hold overnight. Also notice how we were radio silent on the trade front news wise besides Bloomberg's annonymous source this morning (5 AM EST) that said something that we already knew? (China's willing to do a watered down deal, buy ag products, shit like that. The manipulation is impressive sometimes.) And it's not like we had a shit ton of buyers today, it was just no one had any conviction on whether to buy or sell or are already positioned. Although it was a nice little short squeeze. What also kills me is we've seen this movie before - if we do end up getting a "trade truce" and "skinny deal" or a partial deal all it'd be is a replay of the G7 meeting in Japan and literally nothing gets done. But, the markets would use it as an excuse to rally and $310/$3100 here we come. I can see two different scenarios playing out overnight. Scenario 1. We stay bullish overnight barring any bearish catalysts and resume our low volume pumpage back to the $294 level until whispers about the meeting start coming to light. There is a downtrend line coming from the original break down candle (top of the symmetrical triangle) but i'm assuming people would want to go for the fat round number of $294. $2950 on ES. Scenario 2. Some institutional traders or Trump's team or whomever frontran us and that actually is a reversal candle and we gap down and head back to revisit $288 which i would not expect to hold a third time. This could also just be one big ass bear flag that just printed as well. But, at this point your guess is as good as mine. Let me know where you guys stand. Goodluck.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904
Schizophrenic markets win the day againToday was another incredibly challenging day to trade intraday. The market wants to be bullish SO bad and honestly i thought we were going to turn there for a minute. But this schizophrenic news flow is whipsawing everyone left and right. I'm personally wearing this one with bad entries and overreactions to news. My target of $289 on SPY and $2900 on ES were ultimately hit even if we took the long way there. I can see us retesting the trend line i drew creating a symmetrical triangle after the market reversed, only to reverse again breaking down out of it. But i do still see it as valid. Either we'll retest that trendline in ES overnight and get rejected or we'll pass through it for a gap up and retest the neckline. Positive divergences on the 15m - 1H. I honestly don't know how anyone is still bullish but there were buyers out there today. We'll see if it bleeds into tomorrow.
AMEX:SPY
by merkd1904
SPX to climb from upside confirmation, potential bounce! SPX to climb from its upside confirmation at 2951.5 where it could potentially bounce further to 3028.3. *Disclaimer.* Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 684312). This information is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
TVC:SPXLong
by Pepperstone
How to Trade the SPX in October 2019Look for the SPX to trade rangebound between 2960 and 2880 for 2 to 3 weeks, followed by a significant move either to the upside or downside. Its too early to tell which way the move will resolve, so be watching closely. My bias is towards the downside, specifically towards the trend-line at 2790, but considering the amount of liquidity the Fed has already pumped into the market, I would not be surprised to see the S&P shoot higher.
TVC:SPX
by Ludwig_Von_Mises