Spx500long
SPX - bottom in 2024 (NEW)hi traders!
In September this year we have published a trading idea where we identified the Rising Broadening Wedge on SPX chart, which is a bearish pattern and we predicted more downside to come:
In November we looked at the chart from a different angle and we published the idea where SPX continues the downtrend as it's getting rejected from the downsloping resistance line:
Both publications are still valid and we expect those targets to be reached.
Today, in this trading idea, we would like to show you something very interesting on a monthly time frame.
What you can see on the chart is that:
-Major trendline was acting as a support from the beginning of 2009. It's a very important support as we've never seen a monthly close below this trendline. In 2020 (COVID crash), the price faked out but eventually it closed above the trendline.
-Last retest occured in March/April 2020
-We expect that the next retest of this key trendline will be in 2024 as probably the recession will get worse in 2023 .
On the other hand, we don't expect such a huge drop like in 2008 /2009 when SPX dropped 57 %.
False breakout below the trendline may occur like in 2020 but we believe that a monthly close will be above this major trendline.
2023 and 2024 will be a great time to accumulate stocks (and crypto) at huge discounts. The opportunity will present itself but it's not there yet. Patience is the key.
Do you agree? Will the trendline hold this time?
Or maybe you think that SPX won't retest it in 2023/24 and SPX has already bottomed out?
Share your opinion in the comment section!
Mini-Rally?Well,
Last week, I was right - until I was wrong.
Thanks to CRM and a Fed Chairman talking about "only a .25 rate hike", the market was behaving as forecasted.\
Why blame CRM? Not only did it manage to pull up on the DJI, it pulled up on the S&P (Since it is calculated into both averages).
So, here we are - new week, new data and the data changed from last week.. What do things look like?
The signal generated is bullish, the forecasts are the coming week is between: (4326 - 4113) with a mean of 4159.
The 5 period Stochastic still isn't showing full upward commitment from the index. This can change this week. The 5 period value still places the index in a position of indecision. It is still unsure of what is it going to do.
The 2 period Stochastic is suggesting it is going to challenge it's 2 period high of 4052. Not a difficult task since the close (4045) is so near to the high.
It is in consolidation between: 4052 and 3928. We know that 4052 is going to be challenged, but the close of the week might return to between these values if a reason to stay above doesn't materialize.
Have you seen the economic situation? When we are grabbing on any good news for a short term rally. I guess the market is hunting the good stuff.
Monthly S/R Range is: 4195 - 3491.
Close was above to 8 period moving average. So prices are at a premium to the 8 week average - a bullish indication of things to come. Yet still at a discount to the 5 week (~1 month) average.
I am still bearish - Need a monthly close above 4195 to change my mind.
However - I am not immune to playing a mini-rally for fun and profits.
If you are playing inverse ETFs, you may get stopped out this week.
Yet, don't give up on the bear. The signs that it has left the market have not appeared yet.
The FED speaks in a couple of weeks. Depending on what is said can break the consolidation. Then we go 2 months without hearing from the FED.
Stay frosty! Keep your stops in place. This is going to be an interesting, if not wild week.
-PriceProphet
US500 to hit the weekly support and then bounceUS500 is on the way to revisit the weekly support zone around 3990. Currently it has hit the daily support but it is likely that it will go and at least touch the weekly support zone. But they both are quite close. That will definitely produce a bounce to the upside and might bring the price to daily resistance level. Let us see if this daily produces enough momentum to lead it to the resistance. But I would incline towards it touching weekly first before heading towards resistance and that would also be favorable for a better entry point and a better RR.
SPX also showing strong upside to come with a C&H target 4,600Cup and Handle has formed over the last few months.
We have had a break up out of the brim level and now looks like the price wants to bounce and run up further.
This is following onto the long position and update we did with the SPX a few months ago.
As traders we need to adjust course and apply new patterns as they come.
7>21>200
RSI>50
Target 4,600
With the Jobs added better than expected last Friday and with the signs of an economic recovery, The US is showing strong signs of a rally.
This could be before the catalyst for the expected fall.
Regardless, I am bullish for now and the charts don't lie!
SPX to find support at previous resistance?US500 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 4081 (stop at 4049)
Previous resistance level of 4141 broken. Majority of the initial daily gains being overturned.
Bespoke support is located at 4047.
The sequence for trading is higher highs and lows.
The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited.
Our profit targets will be 4153 and 4170
Resistance: 4153 / 4194 / 4548
Support: 4047 / 4000 / 3954
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SPX TOP!! Final leg to 6100 by July 22nd 2024This just lines up so perfect for me. A measured move from the March 2020 lows would be 6100 in July 22nd ish 2024. That would line up with the tops from 1929 and 2001, oh man. At that point I'm selling it all and running for the hills cuz it could get REAL nasty.
SPX500 > Bullish Outlook is Very Likely if the Support HoldsThe SPX500 is trading in corrective mode ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve interest rate hike meeting, which is expected to impact the asset class' price. Currently trading at 4000, considered a crucial support level and psychological round number, the price may resume its bullish trend after a correction.
The stability of support levels at 4000 and 3990 depends on the Fed's rate decision. If rates are hiked more than 50 points, the market may turn bearish, and if support levels break, the price may retest the consolidation breakout's top. Key levels to watch include 4000 and 3990.
I would appreciate your support and opinion of this idea. Let's watch the level mentioned with an eagle eye.
SPX is getting close to it's target boxThis was the title of the last update, which got deleted by the tradingview:
"SPX can still make a higher high next week - Jan 19th update"
I cannot attach the image but will post it another place, look for info under my bio
Since I get banned not even mentioning a site, I will post here only 1-3 times a week.
I don't want to waste my time on bringing business to this site.
SPX is near its completion move for the C wave up I have had for over than a week now.
Targets are at 4065, 4090 and 4110
We close near the first one; tomorrow is the PCE numbers report, which should move the markets.
But today, we didn't move on GDP numbers, when before, it was selling off on hot numbers.
So the real move might not come till actually the Fed meeting on the 1st.
We had a wall into the close, which is a bearish signal and usually ends up with a gap down the next day.
As long as we won't exceed Dec high, I'm looking for a move down to 3700 handle if not more.
Watch that yellow trendline, it's been a bear-bull line since 2009, and the price is still below it!
Night
SPX more downside soonSPX remains bearish.
The downsloping resistance line (yellow line) is still acting as a long-term resistance
The price is breaking down from the Rising Broaderning Wedge which is a bearish pattern.
We expect the price to get rejected from the previous support which now should be acting as a resistance.
More downside coming.
Targets shown in the chart.
Good luck