SPX also showing strong upside to come with a C&H target 4,600Cup and Handle has formed over the last few months.
We have had a break up out of the brim level and now looks like the price wants to bounce and run up further.
This is following onto the long position and update we did with the SPX a few months ago.
As traders we need to adjust course and apply new patterns as they come.
7>21>200
RSI>50
Target 4,600
With the Jobs added better than expected last Friday and with the signs of an economic recovery, The US is showing strong signs of a rally.
This could be before the catalyst for the expected fall.
Regardless, I am bullish for now and the charts don't lie!
Spx500long
SPX to find support at previous resistance?US500 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 4081 (stop at 4049)
Previous resistance level of 4141 broken. Majority of the initial daily gains being overturned.
Bespoke support is located at 4047.
The sequence for trading is higher highs and lows.
The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited.
Our profit targets will be 4153 and 4170
Resistance: 4153 / 4194 / 4548
Support: 4047 / 4000 / 3954
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
SPX TOP!! Final leg to 6100 by July 22nd 2024This just lines up so perfect for me. A measured move from the March 2020 lows would be 6100 in July 22nd ish 2024. That would line up with the tops from 1929 and 2001, oh man. At that point I'm selling it all and running for the hills cuz it could get REAL nasty.
SPX500 > Bullish Outlook is Very Likely if the Support HoldsThe SPX500 is trading in corrective mode ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve interest rate hike meeting, which is expected to impact the asset class' price. Currently trading at 4000, considered a crucial support level and psychological round number, the price may resume its bullish trend after a correction.
The stability of support levels at 4000 and 3990 depends on the Fed's rate decision. If rates are hiked more than 50 points, the market may turn bearish, and if support levels break, the price may retest the consolidation breakout's top. Key levels to watch include 4000 and 3990.
I would appreciate your support and opinion of this idea. Let's watch the level mentioned with an eagle eye.
SPX is getting close to it's target boxThis was the title of the last update, which got deleted by the tradingview:
"SPX can still make a higher high next week - Jan 19th update"
I cannot attach the image but will post it another place, look for info under my bio
Since I get banned not even mentioning a site, I will post here only 1-3 times a week.
I don't want to waste my time on bringing business to this site.
SPX is near its completion move for the C wave up I have had for over than a week now.
Targets are at 4065, 4090 and 4110
We close near the first one; tomorrow is the PCE numbers report, which should move the markets.
But today, we didn't move on GDP numbers, when before, it was selling off on hot numbers.
So the real move might not come till actually the Fed meeting on the 1st.
We had a wall into the close, which is a bearish signal and usually ends up with a gap down the next day.
As long as we won't exceed Dec high, I'm looking for a move down to 3700 handle if not more.
Watch that yellow trendline, it's been a bear-bull line since 2009, and the price is still below it!
Night
SPX more downside soonSPX remains bearish.
The downsloping resistance line (yellow line) is still acting as a long-term resistance
The price is breaking down from the Rising Broaderning Wedge which is a bearish pattern.
We expect the price to get rejected from the previous support which now should be acting as a resistance.
More downside coming.
Targets shown in the chart.
Good luck
SPX Is Actually Bullish | My Last Analaysis Was Invalidated When i'm wrong, i'm usually wrong very quickly. My last analysis was invalidated within 24 hours, which is ok because now we know the direction for sure.
Its important to know as to why this breakout is important. A structure, as long as 264 days has been broken.
A broken structure leads to change! Usually a change in trend. That does not mean we're going to shoot back up to the moon (we could), but at the very least the downtrend seems to be over.
the next target is 4100, located at the previous resistance.
Will SPX's previous support attract buyers?US500 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 3875 (stop at 3855)
Continued downward momentum from 4013 resulted in the pair posting net daily losses yesterday.
An overnight positive theme in Equities has led to a higher open this morning.
The 361.8% Fibonacci extension level of the 4016-3977 move is at 3875.
A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 3875.
There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited.
Our profit targets will be 3928 and 3990
Resistance: 3928 / 3960 / 3992
Support: 3882 / 3875 / 3850
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
SPX - Are you ready for this?SPX approaching a downsloping resistance.
It may fakeout above the trendline to trick traders but don't get it twisted. This bear market rally is almost done and it's a time for a major move.
Lower high after lower high is suggesting downtrend continuation.
Are you ready for a 17 % dump? If you are not ready, this is a friendly reminder that it may be a right time to close your longs and enter shorts or stay on the sideline.
It may take some time so be patient!
Good luck!
S&P 500 SPX SPY ES1! Breadth (S5FI) & (S5TH) - Updated 011623Looking at the latest S&P 500 SPX (SPY ES1!) "Breadth" data , including Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average (S5FI) & Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average" (S5TH) — this is yet another indicator that we have been tracking since the start of the market downturn (correction/bear market) in late 21' / early 22' as it has helped to signal buy/sell signals.
Here's what you'll find on this chart: 📊
Top Section
Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average (S5FI) = Blue Line: *CHART NOTE* Pay close attention to the horizontal (Blue Dotted Line), which signals/coincides with relative tops in breadth that match the SPX resistance.
Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average" (S5TH) = Orange Line: *CHART NOTE* Pay close attention to the horizontal (Orange Dotted Line), which signals/coincides with relative tops in breadth that match the SPX resistance.
Bottom Section
S&P 500 SPX (SPY ES1!) = Teal Line
Support/Resistance (Bear Flag Pattern) = Vertical Red Lines
Pay close attention to the (Red Dotted Lines), as these mark relief rally tops in the SPX (SPY ES1!). Conindiencely enough, these "alignments" of technical signals closely match the resistance (Red Line) that is now sitting around $4,000 S&P 500 SPX (SPY ES1!).
What do you think about this S&P 500 SPX (SPY ES1!) contrarian (sell) indicator? 📈📉
Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
Buying SPX at first support.US500 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 3975 (stop at 3955)
4 positive daily performances in succession.
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning.
Bespoke support is located at 3975.
The 261.8% Fibonacci extension is located at 4065 from 3763 to 3878.
Our profit targets will be 4022 and 4065
Resistance: 4022 / 4065 / 4137
Support: 3975 / 3920 / 3902
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX - Updated 011423Leading up to the December Inflation CPI Report that was released this last week (Thursday), markets (at a macro level) have been rallying into this last Friday — which also was coincidently the start of earnings season as banks such as J.P. Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), & others.
Now that the Inflation (CPI) Report is out of the way & earnings season is full steam ahead, markets look to the next big event(s) which include the Federal Reserve February Interest Rate Decision coming our way on February 1st, 2023.
That said, here's what is happening in the charts with the S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! as it relates to our "40-Bar Cycle" 📊:
📉 *CHART NOTES* 📈
As I mentioned above, we did break out of the sloppy trading/consolidation range that the S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! was kept in throughout the holidays, & into the new year. Now that we've broken out of that & reached back above the 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA50 = Red Line) on the daily chart, SPY is sitting just below the 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA200 = Green Line). Also note that we did close above the SMA200 ($397.21) to finish up the week at ($398.50) on SPY. Now that we are above this key level (on a daily close), question is will we re-test this level & drift higher into the February Federal Reserve Meeting? OR, are markets setting up for a further (or short-term) pull-back using the timing & levels included in the "40-Bar Cycle" 📊 ?
Keep in mind too that we did get a positive MACD crossover (buy signal) on the daily chart, as featured below. However, looking at the charts (including 4-hour MACD) I would conclude that this is likely an invalid buy signal — based in-part on other factors including January Options Expiration (OpEx) next week, 'VIX Compression', & also Federal Reserve 'Net Liquidity', which is still "risk-off" on a macro level as the Federal Reserve looks to keep a lid on asset prices, & of course Inflation (CPI).
Chart #1-2: SPY Consolidation Breakout (Daily, w/ & w/o Falling Wedge Pattern)
Chart #3: SPY Consolidation Breakout (4-Hour)
Chart #4: SPY Consolidation Breakout (1-Hour)
Chart #5: SPY 40-Bar Cycle (Daily, note that we are now clearly above the 50SMA are converging on major resistance of the 2022 downtrend & the 200SMA ).
Chart #6: SPY 40-Bar Cycle (4-Hour, note the 50SMA did not cross below the 200SMA)
Chart #7: SPY 40-Bar Cycle (1-Hour, note the 50SMA vs. 200SMA buy-signal & upward regression channel)
What are your predictions for the rest of January 23'?
Camp A: We are short-term overbought & a pull-back is in order, before we re-test & break out of this $380-390-400 range on the back of better than expected earnings, less than hawkish Federal Reserve, & more "resilient" macro data.
Camp B: We may continue to short-term rally, however market liquidity is still too strong & the Federal Reserve is likely to continue with .25% — in addition to maintaining their hawkish tone so that excess market liquidity does not run away from them with higher asset prices. Macro data will continue to be mixed, if not trend-downward, & earnings will start to come in softer than people expect as forward outlooks raise the red flags for investors.
Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
Buying SPX at previous resistance levels.US500 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 3867 (stop at 3842)
Selling pressure from 3951 resulted in all the initial daily gains being overturned.
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning.
Bespoke support is located at 3867.
A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 3815.
Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 3933 and 3951
Resistance: 3933 / 3951 / 4137
Support: 3867 / 3850 / 3812
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! - Updated 122322With a key level of the $JPM Quarterly Options Collar sitting at $3,855 on SPX ES1!, markets seemed to have been "pinned" for the time being as market makers position for the close of business ahead of the Christmas holiday.
Question now is are the bulls hopes of a Santa Rally into year-end wishful thinking? 🎅 🎄 Or, we see another attempt at a short-term relief rally within what is likely to be a continuation of the downward "40-Bar Cycle" that is projected to continue into the first few weeks of 23'?
SPY Daily Chart Template
www.tradingview.com
Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets?
Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED + Downward Earnings Revisions/Misses).
Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED + Earnings "Resiliency").
Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼