Get started

Spx500short

DXY Rate hike sparks fresh bears,17/1000, 12/1/2023Now! Short this market, you will get unimaginable profits! YOLO DXY has been falling, causing a general uptick in all secondary markets right now Has the dollar achieved its goal of cutting inflation? No! Traders' hopes for a return to the bull market in the secondary market run counter to the Fed's control plan SPX's breakthrough on the S line has already reflected the overly optimistic sentiment in the secondary market Today's CPI may cause a new high in the US dollar rate hike, the short position in the secondary market is not over yet, and the price rebound is difficult to continue
TVC:DXY
by IFTrees
1
S&P 500 (SPX)/Producer Price Index (PPIACO) Leading Market LowerToday, I wanted to share a chart setup that was inspired by @Badcharts that highlights the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) correlatio n — which, as @Badcharts recently highlighted on a Twitter space led (or very closely correlated) with the downturn in the S&P 500 (SPX SPY ES1!) starting in late 21’. In addition to this, I wanted to layer on the S&P 500 (SPX), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), & U.S. Recessions as these (3) inputs seem to have a very intersting correlation to the relative predictive timing of previous recessionary periods — both in 01’ & 08’. I’ve also added the “MACD Indicator” (bottom indicator) & the “Distance from Moving Average” (first indicator), using the SMA 144 & 200 Bar Lookback as these help highlight overbought/oversold conditions in the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) — which could help you identify tactical market positioning opportunities (long or short). Here is the chart key for this setup: 📊🔑 Black/White Bars = S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) Blue Line = SPX (SPY ES1!) Orange Line = Unemployment (UNRATE) Vertical Black Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Ratio Peak (SPX/PPIACO) Vertical Orange Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Unemployment Trough (UNRATE) Vertical Blue Dotted Line = Pre-Recession S&P 500 Peak (SPX) 1990 - 2023 Overview (Monthly) 📊 *2001 Recession* (Monthly & Weekly) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)* Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Mar. 00’ Trough (UNRATE) = Apr. 00’ Peak (SPX) = Aug. 00’ *2008 Recession* (Weekly & Daily) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)* Trough (UNRATE) = May 07’ Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = June 07’ Peak (SPX) = Oct. 07’ 2023 Recession? (Weekly & Daily) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 7 bars (months), but no “technical recession”…* Peak (SPX) = Dec. 21’ Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Jan. 00’ Trough (UNRATE) = July 22’ What are your initial thoughts & observations from this chart setup? Let me know in the comments below! 👇🏼
SP:SPXShort
by kylemusserco
1
Selling SPX into current highs.US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 3895 (stop at 3945) Posted Mixed Daily results for the last 9 days. Intraday, and we are between bespoke support and resistance 3747-3895. Rallies continue to attract sellers. The medium term bias is neutral. Our profit targets will be 3747 and 3700 Resistance: 3895 / 4028 / 4140 Support: 3747 / 3700 / 3515 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
1
S&P 500 Big Picture Update - Bearish ScenarioMany investors are already assuming a breakout from the upper trend line and thus a continuation of the uptrend. The economic sentiment is still bearish , many companies now have to bear the high capital and energy costs and many companies are still highly overvalued. Therefore, today we would like to introduce you to a bearish scenario that is likely to occur, the Double ZigZag . Structure of a Double ZigZag - Superior: (W) - (X) - (Y) - Subordinate: (ABC) - (ABC) - (ABC) - Subwaves: (12345 - ABC - 12345) - (ABC) - (12345 - ABC - 12345) Current situation If this scenario is correct, we would be in the last sub-wave ABC and now see the last downward movement as sub-wave 12345. This would complete the last subordinate (ABC) wave. This scenario would be confirmed if in the next few days/weeks the SPX initiates a trend reversal to the downside. We already see a weaker SPX struggling to pump above the yellow highlighted resistance. Even if we could make it above this, it would have to be retested first and thus hold above resistance. We now expect the SPX to either make another small breakout to the upside before correcting back down, or for the SPX to correct right away. Strongly changing market The market is very difficult to assess at the moment. Many economic news are affecting the markets very strongly, new political and economic changes are coming at a record pace and most investors are still afraid to lose money. Thus, this Double ZigZag scenario is one of several possible scenarios. We will post a bullish scenario in the next few days.
SP:SPXShort
by Consyder
1
Bottom before CPI followed by months of greenTesting for perceived location: SubMillennial wave: 1 Grand SuperCycle wave: 5 SuperCycle wave: 2 Cycle wave: B Primary wave: B Intermediate wave: B Location ID: 152BBB This is an update on the progress of Primary wave B. My last analysis ( ) projected Intermediate wave A (inside of Primary wave B) to bottom on December 22 which appears to be the case for now. Minor waves 3 and 4 inside of Intermediate A did appear to hit their marks as well. Minute wave 3 in Minor wave 3 was confirmed on an hourly chart by using my Elliott Wave 3 Finder ( ). This would appear to confirm the location of Minor wave 3 and further confirm Intermediate wave A is over, even though the bottom was not as deep as projected. The prior analysis also projected Intermediate wave B to top around 3925 by January 5. Due to Intermediate wave A not dropping as far, wave B may not reach this top. The following are the projections for the end of Intermediate wave B based on the assumed conclusion of Intermediate wave A. Intermediate wave A lasted 15 trading days, moved 278.13 for a rise over run of 18.542 points per day. The left most set of lines are for determining Intermediate wave B endpoints. Based on waves ending in 2BBB, the length of Intermediate wave B may only be 3 to 4 days (which we are beyond at this point). The most current top was 4 days after the end of wave A which theoretically means Intermediate B could be over. In my opinion this movement would be quick and historical data for waves ending in 2BBB is very limited so let’s explore the other datasets first. The quartiles for movement retracement are at 39.28%, 56.545% and 73.81%. This would point to tops at 3896.48, 3954.49, and 4012.50 (the light blue lines on the chart). Based on waves ending in BBB, the strongest model agreement for length is at 3 and 4 days again, with additional indications of 5 and 9 days long as well. The maximum lengths are generally only 60% of wave A’s move, while most are no higher than 33%. This would likely cap the length of wave A at 9 days, with a more likely cap at 5 days. Movement retracement quartiles are at 29.76%, 52.325%, and 68.64%. These are the yellow lines on the chart. The largest dataset, and less specific, is for waves ending in BB. In order of strongest model agreement intermediate wave B could last 4 or 3 days. The third most agreement is a tie amongst 5, 8, 15, and 30 days. Fourth most agreement is at 9 and 11 trading days. Movement retracement quartiles are near the previous levels with the 3rd quartile being the outlier at 86.58% (the white level on the chart). All datasets tend to point to a length around 3-4 days which has not only passed our current position but the current top was achieved on day 4. The level may have been lower than the quartiles from the models, however, it is in line with some of the historical movement. We will likely wait and see what happens next. Based on what would have been expected of Intermediate wave B, we will now assume Intermediate B has completed and begin to forecast Intermediate wave C. The plots for Minor waves A and B and end point for Intermediate wave B are plotted on the chart. This also means this first week of 2023 should move below the high from December 29, 2022 for a few weeks. ============================================ Current location: SubMillennial wave: 1 Grand SuperCycle wave: 5 SuperCycle wave: 2 Cycle wave: B Primary wave: B Intermediate wave: C Location ID: 152BBC The data for Intermediate wave A has not changed from above which was 15 trading days long, drop of 278.13 points for rise over run of 18.542. With the assessed conclusion of Intermediate wave B, it lasted 4 trading days, rose 35.81 points for a rise over run of 8.953 points/day. Intermediate wave B retraced wave A’s length by only 26.67% and retraced it’s movement by 12.88%. The centermost lines in the chart above outline the potential endpoints for Intermediate wave C. Based on waves ending in 2BBC, Intermediate C could last 6, 8, 11, or 12 trading days. No one value stands out. The movement extension quartiles are very compact at 127.13%, 130.095%, 133.06%. These levels are light blue above. Based on waves ending in BBC, the most model agreement has Intermediate wave C ending at 8 trading days. Secondary agreement is at 5 and 12 days. Many points all tie for third most agreement. The movement extension quartiles are 104.14%, 121.565%, 127.47%. The new levels are the yellow lines above. Based on waves ending in BC, the most model agreement has Intermediate wave C ending at 2, 4, 8, 12, and 15 days. The second most agreement is at 5 trading days long. Third most agreement is at 16 days. The movement extension quartiles are at 108.66%, 133.315%, 147.17%. These levels are the white lines in the middle section above. Based on all of these considerations it looks like we are in for a down week to begin 2023. I have placed the end of Intermediate wave C (which is also the end of Primary wave B around 3663 on January 11, 2023. That means we could drop a little less than 200 points over the next week and a half. All things considered with the market’s volatility over the past year, this will be slow and likely full of indecisive trading. The rightmost set of retracement lines outline the overall retracement of Primary wave B in relation to Primary wave A. This target bottom would place the overall retracement around 70% of Primary wave A’s gain of 600+ points. What could be the catalyst for this final bottom? I have us rising strong until the summer of 2023 with highs above 4400-4600 range. January 10th and 11th will be quiet on the economic news front, however, the latest CPI read will be January 12th. This could be the catalyst. There are likely 2 ways to consider this number and things to remember. Inflation really accelerated one year ago. Inflation is likely high, but when considering where we were one year ago it should drop significantly. Therefore, the algorithmic trading computers will likely see a low print as a high win for the Fed and its monetary policies of the prior year. Although this is hiding a major issue, people will not care to look at the actual cause. A low print will start the moonshot the market is soon to face. I will have plenty of time in the coming months to explain why the market top in mid-2023 will be followed by a likely 40-50% drop in the market, but who cares. Enjoy the quick gains and be ready to play it safe later.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
3
40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! - Updated 122322With a key level of the $JPM Quarterly Options Collar sitting at $3,855 on SPX ES1!, markets seemed to have been "pinned" for the time being as market makers position for the close of business ahead of the Christmas holiday. Question now is are the bulls hopes of a Santa Rally into year-end wishful thinking? 🎅 🎄 Or, we see another attempt at a short-term relief rally within what is likely to be a continuation of the downward "40-Bar Cycle" that is projected to continue into the first few weeks of 23'? SPY Daily Chart Template www.tradingview.com Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets? Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED + Downward Earnings Revisions/Misses). Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED + Earnings "Resiliency"). Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
AMEX:SPYShort
by kylemusserco
Selling SPX at previous support.US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 3909 (stop at 3963) A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 3776. An overnight positive theme in Equities has led to a higher open this morning. Intraday, and we are between bespoke support and resistance 3893-3503. There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. Our profit targets will be 3746 and 3503 Resistance: 3893 / 3909 / 4055 Support: 3746 / 3503 / 3491 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
UShort
by Saxo
SPX Fair Value Ranges - SPX ES1! SPY - Updated 121722Here is a chart that calculates SPX "Fair Value", based off FED Net Liquidity variables. SPY ES1! Looking to the end of the year 2022 and the start of 2023, here are some SPX target ranges to keep in mind when taking into account the current FED Net Liquidity: Upper Bound: $4,271.69 Fair Value: $3,921.69 Lower Bound: $3,771.69 If you want a copy of this chart, here is the link to make a copy: 📊👇🏼 SPX Fair Value (FED Net Liquidity) www.tradingview.com SPX Net Liquidity Band Indicator via @dharmatechnology8: www.tradingview.com
SP:SPX
by kylemusserco
Selling SPX at previous support.US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 3918 (stop at 3988) Trades at the lowest level in 25 days. The 161.8% Fibonacci extension is located at 3861 from 4140 to 3968. The medium term bias remains bearish. Bespoke support is located at 3504. Our profit targets will be 3745 and 3505 Resistance: 3918 / 3958 / 4140 Support: 3861 / 3746 / 3503 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
UShort
by Saxo
SPX so far so good from yesterday's updateI was sleeping in today after my BD celebration yesterday and what a present I got:) The only issue is I didnt short 2am last night as was looking to do it and tweeted about it! Good I got some of those lotto puts (tweeted yesterday as well) We got a gap down I was looking for, hope people are not trapped long since yesterday as I warned so many times as well as tweeted! Now the question if SPX gets below 3832-31, then it should close at the lows and the next support will be at 3808 (target I was looking for for last several days) Usually these types of moves are ending up with closing at the lows, so if we get a bounce, I will short it to exit either tomorrow am or AHs
SP:SPX
by RealTima
9
SPX Model Trading Plans for THU. 12/15Bull Trap from Last Week Re-testing Key Support In our last trading plans published on Wed., 12/07, we wrote: "Last two sessions turned the recent spike up into a bull trap. However, our models are indicating that the index is likely to find some support around the 3910-3915 range. Longs might want to wait to see if the index holds this level, and shorts need to be nimble in taking their profits if it does". Our models went into an indeterminate state since then and have come out with some trading levels only this morning. If you went to sleep after reading our last trading plan and are waking up today, you would not realize that a full week of trading transpired since then, as we are exactly where we were then! The bounce from our published support level proved only short-lived post the FOMC rate decision yesterday, and the index is feeling heavy again. With the key support level of 3900-3910 in the range again, BOTH bulls and bears need to be nimble in any positions they open today, as any bounce or breakdown could be swift and spiky. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models indicate going long on a break above 3955 or 3925 with a 35-point trailing stop and a hard stop on a break below 3940, and going short on a break below 3930 or 3895 with a 40-point trailing stop and a hard stop on a break above 3913. Models also indicate instituting a break-even hard stop once a position gets into a 10-point profit level. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for THU. 12/15: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3955, 3948, or 3915 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3940, 3933 or 3910 with a 10-point trailing stop.  Models indicate long exits on a break below 3963, and short exits on a break above 3896. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. ***** No Idle Analysis-paralysis here! Only actionable trading plans - every morning! And, transparent, verifiable results of each and every trading plan, every night! LET THE RESULTS SPEAK FOR OUR MODELS! See for yourself how our Morning Trading Plans have been doing for the last one month or one year or since started! ***** NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #rates, #earnings, #midterms, #elections, #cpi, #fedpivot, #shortsqueeze, #bulltrap, #fomc
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom