SPX is getting close to it's target boxThis was the title of the last update, which got deleted by the tradingview:
"SPX can still make a higher high next week - Jan 19th update"
I cannot attach the image but will post it another place, look for info under my bio
Since I get banned not even mentioning a site, I will post here only 1-3 times a week.
I don't want to waste my time on bringing business to this site.
SPX is near its completion move for the C wave up I have had for over than a week now.
Targets are at 4065, 4090 and 4110
We close near the first one; tomorrow is the PCE numbers report, which should move the markets.
But today, we didn't move on GDP numbers, when before, it was selling off on hot numbers.
So the real move might not come till actually the Fed meeting on the 1st.
We had a wall into the close, which is a bearish signal and usually ends up with a gap down the next day.
As long as we won't exceed Dec high, I'm looking for a move down to 3700 handle if not more.
Watch that yellow trendline, it's been a bear-bull line since 2009, and the price is still below it!
Night
Spx500short
Time For Bears To Feast? $SPY Heading to $385 By Feb. 10th.It seems like it's following the same pattern as the past two rallies. If you look closely, each time it rallied, the volume was declining and same is happening with the current rally as well. The first rally hit the bottom trendline in 36 days, the second rally hit the bottom trendline in 18 days (in exactly half the amount of days it took the first one to touch the trendline) and if the algos are following similar pattern we should see $385 by second week of Feb. Close above $405 invalidates this probability for me.
SPX more downside soonSPX remains bearish.
The downsloping resistance line (yellow line) is still acting as a long-term resistance
The price is breaking down from the Rising Broaderning Wedge which is a bearish pattern.
We expect the price to get rejected from the previous support which now should be acting as a resistance.
More downside coming.
Targets shown in the chart.
Good luck
sp500Thinking we've just completed wave B on the HTF monthly chart in what appears to be a Zig Zag bearish ABC that once completed will make the 5th wave blow off top into summer 2023 or longer / shorter depending on
how long it will take for Wave C to push, judging by the way Fed is reducing interest rates a pause seems likely in the next few meetings. This should be the FA event that sends the stock markets up 1 last time.
Continue...The increase in rates will begin to realize itself closer to March. FRS does everything right.
Taking into account the Fed's policy for 2023, macroeconomic factors and banking policy, 2023 can easily become the year of the red candle or the continuation of the downtrend.
Let's now go deeper into the economy and see what is happening in it now.
We all know that the credit policy of the USA and the EU for individuals. the price is very profitable. Interest rates were very low, and housing loans were even negative. All this led to individuals grow lending themselves to the ceiling of their salaries. Not the way I teach you – to calculate only from net income – namely from a salary on paper.
Due to the increase in interest rates, % on loans begin to grow and payments from individuals grow with them. All this, at a distance, will lead to the fact that many people will have to start selling their property in order to pay off their debts to banks.
S&P500 Is Likely To Go LowerThe SPX made a false breakout. A false breakout means that the price attempted to break out of a pattern, or break support/resistance. The attempt is successful for a short amount of time, before the price goes back to where it was. This usually is a reversal signal.
For now i'm staying bearish, untill the price goes sideways or manages to break the resistance of the channel.
SPX - Are you ready for this?SPX approaching a downsloping resistance.
It may fakeout above the trendline to trick traders but don't get it twisted. This bear market rally is almost done and it's a time for a major move.
Lower high after lower high is suggesting downtrend continuation.
Are you ready for a 17 % dump? If you are not ready, this is a friendly reminder that it may be a right time to close your longs and enter shorts or stay on the sideline.
It may take some time so be patient!
Good luck!
SPX SHORT idea As the current price is moving toward the Ichimoku cloud and heading to the 1st support line. As of now, we may hold our position until the price break the 1st support line. Once the price has broken the 1st support line, we are expecting the price to drop further. we may place the sell entry at 3901.28. Take profit 3764.49 and stop loss at 3952.92.
Is it the end of the bear-market rally on the S&P 500?Volatility was high during the Asian and US session yesterday, which saw a reversal of fortunes for the Japanese yen and the US dollar track Wall Street lower by the close on concerns the US is already in a recession.
The yen originally weakened and sent USD/JPY over 250 pips higher as the BOJ did absolutely nothing, catching pre-emptive hawkish bets off guard. Yes with US retail sales sinking to a 12-month low at -1.1% m/m, then industrial production and manufacturing output falling –0.7% m/m and -1.3% respectively, it seems ‘happy new year’ is a distant memory and bears are coming out of hibernation.
The Dow Jones led Wall Street lower (-1.8%) followed by the S&P 500 (-1.56%) and the Nasdaq (-1.3%). It also dragged the dollar lower as traders bet on a lower terminal Fed rate, seeing USD/JPY hand back most of its earlier gains. AUD, CAD and oil were also dragged lower as recession concerns dominated sentiment.
S&P 500 daily chart:
The S&P has stalled at an interesting juncture, and one that may prove to be a major swing high, during its worst session in 21. A large bearish ingulfing candle formed following an intraday false break of 4,000, trend resistance and the 200-day MA. Also note how the S&P has struggled previously at the 50-day MA back in August and twice in December. Volume was also above average to show conviction in the down-day, and the OBV (on balance volume) has been trending lower since November, despite the S&P’s rally since October, to show that bearish volume is dominating overall.
Have we just seen the end of a bear-market rally?
Possibly, perhaps not. But it does appear that a prominent swing high has formed
• Our bias remains bearish below 4016 with an initial target at 3800
• Bears could either enter a break of yesterday’s low, or seek to fade into rallies with yesterday’s bearish candle (this potentially increases the reward to risk ratio)
• If confident this is the end of a bear-market rally, bears could keep an open downside target and manage with a wider stop as it moves lower to managed the inevitable whipsaws along the way
Bull Trap Ahead!! Max pain incoming...In trading, a bull trap is a situation where a trader (beginner) buys an asset believing its price will continue to rise, only to see it fall sharply soon after. If you inspect the SPX chart by yourself, you'll see:
1- lack of increasing volume
2- absence of momentum
3- lack of definite/sufficient trend break
4- retesting of resistance level (Major downward trendline)
5- sus bullish candlesticks
6- last but not the least, the VIX is at the zone where the market always reverse to the downside. This is just a prime short entry in my opinion.
Overall, the macro market conditions still didn't improve that much. Ofc there is a chance it breaks up, however, the odds of this being a bull trap is wayyy more likely. Don't FOMO into anything and have a bi-directional outlook on the chart; inverting the chart might help. Protect your capital and lessen your position sizes until further confirmation. Take care
SPX500 sell off 3600s! BIG TIME SHORTI was given some information today that has concluded me to short SPX for the remainder of the year.
Turmoil and scandal in the US has caused a turn in SPX bearish. The US is going bankrupt.
I cannot say anymore than that.
consolidation may occur at 3850 levels then further dip to yellow supply
POTENTIAL 700 Point swing!
3:1 RR from MA200 (red) to the yellow supply box 1.
8:1 RR from MA200 (red) to the red supply box 2.
3257 levels indicate the impulse bounce (TA backed by A.K)
DXY Rate hike sparks fresh bears,17/1000, 12/1/2023Now! Short this market, you will get unimaginable profits! YOLO
DXY has been falling, causing a general uptick in all secondary markets right now
Has the dollar achieved its goal of cutting inflation? No!
Traders' hopes for a return to the bull market in the secondary market run counter to the Fed's control plan
SPX's breakthrough on the S line has already reflected the overly optimistic sentiment in the secondary market
Today's CPI may cause a new high in the US dollar rate hike, the short position in the secondary market is not over yet, and the price rebound is difficult to continue
S&P 500: A consolidation is possible on 30' chartHi everyone!
From a technical point of view, S&P 500 could trigger a bearish consolidation (scalp) on 30 minute chart, let's look at what will happen in the next few hours and if the conditions are met, we will publish some updates on intrady chart.
Thanks for your support, like & comments!
Trade with care!
S&P 500 (SPX)/Producer Price Index (PPIACO) Leading Market LowerToday, I wanted to share a chart setup that was inspired by @Badcharts that highlights the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) correlatio n — which, as @Badcharts recently highlighted on a Twitter space led (or very closely correlated) with the downturn in the S&P 500 (SPX SPY ES1!) starting in late 21’.
In addition to this, I wanted to layer on the S&P 500 (SPX), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), & U.S. Recessions as these (3) inputs seem to have a very intersting correlation to the relative predictive timing of previous recessionary periods — both in 01’ & 08’.
I’ve also added the “MACD Indicator” (bottom indicator) & the “Distance from Moving Average” (first indicator), using the SMA 144 & 200 Bar Lookback as these help highlight overbought/oversold conditions in the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) — which could help you identify tactical market positioning opportunities (long or short).
Here is the chart key for this setup: 📊🔑
Black/White Bars = S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO)
Blue Line = SPX (SPY ES1!)
Orange Line = Unemployment (UNRATE)
Vertical Black Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Ratio Peak (SPX/PPIACO)
Vertical Orange Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Unemployment Trough (UNRATE)
Vertical Blue Dotted Line = Pre-Recession S&P 500 Peak (SPX)
1990 - 2023 Overview (Monthly) 📊
*2001 Recession* (Monthly & Weekly) 📊
*NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)*
Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Mar. 00’
Trough (UNRATE) = Apr. 00’
Peak (SPX) = Aug. 00’
*2008 Recession* (Weekly & Daily) 📊
*NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)*
Trough (UNRATE) = May 07’
Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = June 07’
Peak (SPX) = Oct. 07’
2023 Recession? (Weekly & Daily) 📊
*NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 7 bars (months), but no “technical recession”…*
Peak (SPX) = Dec. 21’
Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Jan. 00’
Trough (UNRATE) = July 22’
What are your initial thoughts & observations from this chart setup? Let me know in the comments below! 👇🏼
1.4.23 - First trade of the year.BSL was taken -- as well as the Built up BSL triple top we had that I was waiting for it to get raided. We also had a breaker which I was looking to find resistance as well as a Volume Imbalance (not sure which timeframe its most visible on but I will share pictures below. We also had a trendline with SSL below each low that was used as liquidity.
Selling SPX into current highs.US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 3895 (stop at 3945)
Posted Mixed Daily results for the last 9 days.
Intraday, and we are between bespoke support and resistance 3747-3895.
Rallies continue to attract sellers.
The medium term bias is neutral.
Our profit targets will be 3747 and 3700
Resistance: 3895 / 4028 / 4140
Support: 3747 / 3700 / 3515
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