Spx500short
SPX is at support levelNothing much to add since yesterday's updates.
Im looking up for a breakdown trendline test. If its very bearish, then it can just get to 3965-70SPX and stop there.
That would mean much lower levels are coming this month!
Ideal pathway is to test 4k level and reverse down. That would be your shorting opportunity
The whole move off CPI will be erased next!
If it happens before the CPI on the 13th, be ware of a move down to 3400-3500!!!
So be careful if long here! especially if we stop at 3970SPX
SPX Model Trading Plans for WED. 12/07Fed Pivot Hope Turned Into a Bull Trap; Approaching Support
In our trading plans published post-NFP on Fri., 12/02, we wrote: "After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning's Non Farm Payrolls data could be suggesting that it could potentially be an "irrational exuberance", and the futures' reaction so far post-NFP points to this proving to be the case. Of course, how the index trades in the regular session and how it closes today will hold further clues to this".
Last two sessions turned the recent spike up into a bull trap. However, our models are indicating that the index is likely to find some support around the 3910-3915 range. Longs might want to wait to see if the index holds this level, and shorts need to be nimble in taking their profits if it does.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models went into today's regular session with a short opened on Monday, 12/05, at 4014.57 with a 38-point trailing stop which was tightened to a 33-point trailing stop on Tue, 12/06. This trail from yesterday's low of 3918.39 was hit at 3951.39 within the first ten minutes of today's open, closing out the short with a gain of 73.18 index points. Models indicate staying flat until posted otherwise.
Positional Models assume that we are trading an instrument that trades the futures hours, with the trailing and other stops effective overnight.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for WED. 12/07:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3948, 3931, or 3912 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3926 or 3908 with a 10-point trailing stop.
Models indicate long exits on a break below 3958, and short exits on a break above 3893. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 01:01 pm ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
***** No Idle Analysis-paralysis here! Only actionable trading plans - every morning! And, transparent, verifiable results of each and every trading plan, every night!
LET THE RESULTS SPEAK FOR OUR MODELS! See for yourself how our Morning Trading Plans have been doing for the last one month or one year or since started! *****
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #rates, #earnings, #midterms, #elections, #cpi, #fedpivot, #shortsqueeze, #bulltrap, #nfp, #nonfarmpayrolls, #jobs, #pmi, #ism
SPY SPX Short? S&P 500Quick look at the S&P500 SPY
Technical is working great on this one.
We are clearly in a rising wedge, unclosed gap, and RSI divergence. Many things are working against us.
Chart:
- Rising Wedge, will break into down side on a 1H
- Unclosed gap at $380
- RSI divergence and shows bearish trend.
Will we test $380?
SPX Model Trading Plans for TUE. 12/06Fed Pivot Hope Turning Into a Bull Trap Nightmare? Day 3
In our trading plans published post-NFP on Fri., 12/02, we wrote: "After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning's Non Farm Payrolls data could be suggesting that it could potentially be an "irrational exuberance", and the futures' reaction so far post-NFP points to this proving to be the case. Of course, how the index trades in the regular session and how it closes today will hold further clues to this".
Yesterday morning's hotter than expected ISM numbers, the post-PMI reaction, and this morning's market action so far are all lending more plausibility to our hypothesis that the recent spike up could be turning into a bull trap. The price action today and tomorrow could give us a confirmation. Bulls need to be cautious, and bears need to be nimble.
Positional Trading Models: Yesterday's published positional models closed 6.51 points in gains and went into the close with an open short at 4014.57 and a 38-point trailing stop. For today's session, models indicate tightening the trailing stop to 33-points. If stopped out, the models will stay flat for the rest of the session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for MON. 12/05:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4052, 4028, or 4003 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4048, 4024, or 4000 with a 10-point trailing stop.
Models indicate long exits on a break below 4064, and short exits on a break above 3992. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01 am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
***** No Idle Analysis-paralysis here! Only actionable trading plans - every morning! And, transparent, verifiable results of each and every trading plan, every night!
LET THE RESULTS SPEAK FOR OUR MODELS! See for yourself how our Morning Trading Plans have been doing for the last one month or one year or since started! *****
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
(iv) Positional Models assume that we are trading an instrument that trades the futures hours, with the trailing and other stops effective overnight.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #rates, #earnings, #midterms, #elections, #cpi, #fedpivot, #shortsqueeze, #bulltrap, #nfp, #nonfarmpayrolls, #jobs, #pmi, #ism
SPX Huge Short incomingLooking for the benchmark index to go up a little more in to the 4hr poi and daily descending trendline resistance before dropping to make new lows.
Mid to end of November should mark the start of a new and more aggressive downwards movement where we could see price reach the 2750 level.
This is a very important level as it represents the 50% from ATHs and the 08/09 financial crisis where we saw unprecedented drops.
Once we reach this level and rebalance the COVID-19 crash, I'd start looking to hedge buys into the market.
S&P 500 Big Picture - Bearish ScenarioMany investors are already assuming a breakout from the upper trend line and thus a continuation of the uptrend.
The economic sentiment is still bearish, many companies now have to bear the high capital and energy costs and many companies are still highly overvalued.
Therefore, today we would like to introduce you to a bearish scenario that is likely to occur, the Double ZigZag.
Structure of a Double ZigZag
- Superior: (W) - (X) - (Y)
- Subordinate: (ABC) - (ABC) - (ABC)
- Subwaves: (12345 - ABC - 12345) - (ABC) - (12345 - ABC - 12345)
Current situation
If this scenario is correct, we would be in the last sub-wave ABC and now see the last downward movement as sub-wave 12345. This would complete the last subordinate (ABC) wave.
This scenario would be confirmed if in the next few days/weeks the SPX initiates a trend reversal to the downside. We already see a weaker SPX struggling to pump above the yellow highlighted resistance. Even if we could make it above this, it would have to be retested first and thus hold above resistance.
We now expect the SPX to either make another small breakout to the upside before correcting back down, or for the SPX to correct right away.
Strongly changing market
The market is very difficult to assess at the moment. Many economic news are affecting the markets very strongly, new political and economic changes are coming at a record pace and most investors are still afraid to lose money. Thus, this Double ZigZag scenario is one of several possible scenarios. We will post a bullish scenario in the next few days.
20 Reason buy S&P🔆MULTI-TIME FRAME TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS OVERVIEW☀️
1 ✨Eagle eye: Super BUllish
2 📆Monthly: after a deep correction now, the impulsive move is just started
3 📅Weekly: bear trend/beartrap double bottom/ make lower high
4 🕛Daily: the clear bull trend toward extreme high
😇7 Dimension analysis
🟢 analysis time frame: daily
5: 1 Price Structure: bullish
6: 2 Pattern Candle Chart: flag
7: 3 Volume: high volume
8: 4 Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL Rsi: super bullish
9: 5 Volatility measure Bollinger bands: v
10: 6 Strength ADX: bullish
11: 7 Sentiment ROC: bull
✔️ Entry Time Frame: H4
12: Entry TF Structure: bull
13: entry move: impulsive
14: Support resistance base: cip
15: FIB:
☑️ final comments: buy
16: 💡decision: buy
17: 🚀Entry: 4107
18: ✋Stop losel:4019
19: 🎯Take profit:4198
S&P 500 Building Up A Short PositionRising Wedge, nearing 0.786 fib, major resistance nearby, low momentum above the 200 DMA and upcoming economic reports are all reasons i've been building up a short here on the S&P. Swing trading with a final target at 3400 over a several month timeframe, and a SL at 4160.
SPX Model Trading Plans for FRI. 12/02: NFP FridayFed Pivot Hope Turning Into a Bull Trap Nightmare?
After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning's Non Farm Payrolls data could be suggesting that it could potentially be an "irrational exuberance", and the futures' reaction so far post-NFP points to this proving to be the case. Of course, how the index trades in the regular session and how it closes today will hold further clues to this.
Trading Plans for FRI. 12/02:
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models went long on 11/29/22 at 3950.89, with a 40-point trailing stop. The long rode the post-FOMC spike up and stayed long for another session, finally hitting the trailing stop yesterday with an exit at 4060.51 - for a gain of 109.62 index points!
For today's session, models indicate going long on a break above 4040, with a 35-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4008, with a 36-point trailing stop. Models also indicate instituting a break-even exit once a trade is in profit by 12 points.
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4040, 4022, or 4007 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4018 or 4000 with a 10-point trailing stop.
Models indicate long exits on a break below 4054, and short exits on a break above 3991. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31 am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check our results to see for yourself how our published model trading plans have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES - READ CAREFULLY:
(i) This article contains personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.
(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.
(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.
(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.
(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.
SP500 is facing a lot of resistances. Warning for bulls!Since the spike low at 3500 on 13 Oct, SP500 had a pretty good run and has risen around 15%.
However, fundamentally we are not out of the woods yet, not by far, and also technically there are big warnings on our chart.
First, the rise is clearly corrective in nature and is unfolding in a rising wedge, more often than not, this leads to reversal and resumption of the overall trend, which is down.
Second, between 4100 and 4200 there are a lot of horizontal resistances.
Third, the index is now in the zone of the falling trend line that started in January this year.
All this for me translates into a greater probability of a fall to 3800 than to rise above 4300
Selling rallies from this point on also could have a pretty nice R: R for swing traders.
SPX500 about to fall? Key-Level-Alert!Hey tradomaniacs,
SPX500 just pumped up towards a major resistance-area where a lot of bearish confluence is possible.
Generally I must say that the recent pump caused by Jerome Powell seems to be SUS as his entire speech was pretty hawkish.
I also think he doesnt really want stocks to move up as it would not ease financial conditions and boost inflation.
However, technically a good spot to watch! Either for shorts or a break to the upside!
What do you think?
SPX 4H Analysis📈Trade Idea📉
🟡 #S&P500 Index 4H
✍️We can have two trading scenarios for this index. Considering that S&P is in the Equilibrium range, it can move as a continuation movement (CP) to the supply ranges in the chart (Premium), of course, with the condition of penetrating and closing a four-hour high candlestick (PDH-PWH). In this case, consider two scenarios for trading.
In the first scenario, you can use the supply ranges specified in the chart to activate sell orders.
The second scenario is for traders who are looking for a long stop in this index, they can use the block order limits specified in the chart. For trading in these areas, you can place your trade as a limit by observing the stop loss.
🟢Minor Order Block >🟢3640$ -3684$
🟢Major Order Block >🟢3740$ -3780$
🔴Minor Order block >🔴4080$ - 4120$
🔴Major Order Block> 🔴4165$-41250$
📊Poc (Point of Control) : 3960$
⚠️ Margin 1% For each position.
⚠️Use Tight StopLoss.
✍️Desert Eagle
📊Analysis Method SMART Money
Concept + ICT+ Volume Profile
(DYOR)
📆11.27.2022
⚠️This Analysis will be Updated⚠️
💸Good Luck Traders.
FIBS CONVERGE - .612 .382 SPX AND ES1 SHORT PRICE REJECTION
37 minutes ago
Comment: SEE FUTURES MAKING THIS MORE CLEAR = Interesting how FIB lines stay constant no matter what start or ending point you use
1. The Fib from Jan 4th high calls this the .382 Resistance line
2. The Fib from Aug 16th high calls this the .618 Resistance line
3. They BOTH LAND on the 4000 cash - 4030 on the FUTURES
Note the declining volume the higher she goes
Notice how the EMA CLOUDS mark key TURNING points marked with circles as it rose into the cloud
EMA Cloud where areas are shaded between two desired EMAs. The concept implies the EMA cloud area serves as support or resistance for Swing Trading 5-12 or 5-13 EMA cloud acts as a fluid trendline for day trades. 8-9 EMA Clouds can be used as pullback Levels –(optional). Additionally, a high-level price over or under 34-50 EMA clouds confirms either a bullish or bearish bias on the price action for any timeframe
SPX - US500 @ 200 EMA - TOPS CALLED BY 200 EMA the 200 day ema has called all 2022 TOPDS - now again
In general, the 50- and 200-day EMAs are used as indicators for long-term trends. When a stock price crosses its 200-day moving average, it is a technical signal that a reversal has occurred. Traders who employ technical analysis find moving averages very useful and insightful when applied correctly.
****** VOLUME DROP OFF THE HIGHER SHE GOES
******* STOCHASTIC CALLS IT WAY OVERBOUGHT
HOPIUM - on slower rate hikes may prove to be premature when next CPI and FOMC meeting takes place in 2 weeks....
On the way to 4110-4150, waiting for a pullback again.Analysis of the spx 500 index on November 23
Today we are here to talk about the spx 500 index.
And so let's see what happened to the index over the past day.
What's on the market now:
Today the index is trading at the level of 4003. Yesterday on the market we saw a sharp rise in the index and an attempt to get out of the current correction. As I said earlier, the next level of growth for the index will be the level of 4110-4150. Although now the growth seems obvious, there is still a chance for the market to develop a correction. Globally, I expect the market to continue rising to the 4150-4250 level, this forecast is confirmed as there is a lot of free money in the market due to the reduction of funds and their positions in bonds that I mentioned earlier. Also, we can expect that these volumes will go to the market, and we will see a sharp increase in the index. However, if this attempt is broken, then we will see stabilization in motion and an attempt to roll back the index to the level of 3860.
What I'm looking forward to today:
Today at the open, I expect an attempt to roll back the index to the level of 3970. But since there are new volumes in the market, therefore, there is still a possibility of a sharp increase in the index to the level of 4115. But if this attempt is broken, then we will see a sharp drop in the index to the level of 3860.
Here are my trading recommendations for today.
What I recommend
If you want to go short:
Short positions are possible from the 4110-4150 level, limit your losses.
If you want to go long:
Long positions are possible from the level of 3860, limit your losses.
If you are out of the market:
If you're out of the market. Then you need the perfect price to trade. Long positions are possible from 3860, limit your losses. If you want to open a short position, then it is better to do it from the level of 4110, 4250. Limit your losses.
Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice.
Subscribe to my channel and you will always be aware of the movement of the S&P 500 index .
Press Boost if you agree with the current market situation.
Thank you!
See you next time!
Goodbye!
SPX gapped up in am and retested the trendline from the topSPX gaped up in am and retested the broken trendline from the top, a perfect long for those who traded my call from last night.
I did warn that this can test 4007SPX, its getting close to it.
Did few long trades in am, not touching this till tomorrow.
FED should be a perfect catalysis for the top.
If the price will hold 3946-49SPX tomorrow instead of making a new high and crap, then I would be looking for another extension to 4068 with holiday volume by the 28th high.
From where I do expect a strong move down into Dec 1st low.
Dec 1st low should produce a good long opportunity and ideally it will hit 3744-50SPX.
Should see an easy 150 points into Dec 6th if not more.
The setup is coming and its tomorrow.
I will be on most of the day and will tweet my trades life.
Get ready. The end of this correction is near, a key moment.Analysis of the spx 500 index 11/21/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index.
And so let's see what happened to the index over the past day.
What's on the market now:
Today the index is trading at 3949. Yesterday, as I expected, we saw an attempt to increase the index at the market opening, i mentioned earlier. However, there were few volumes on the market and they were enough to maintain and stabilize the index. Thus, yesterday’s attempt to grow was not realized.
And so today the market will have another chance for the growth of the index. However, today in the morning the situation on the market is different than yesterday. Many market participants saw the weakness of the market and the hesitation of buyers. This will be a signal to experienced players to reduce their positions if the index fails to grow. This will cause the index to drop sharply.
What today:
Today at the opening of the market, rates are rising, the market is expected to be likely to move sharply. The index will have one last attempt to rise to the level of 4110-4150. However, if this attempt is broken, then we will see a sharp drop in the index to the level of 3860 and below.
What I recommend
If you want to go short:
Short positions are possible with a sharp move down. You can go short if the market goes down sharply, but limit your losses.
If you want to go long:
Long positions are possible with a sharp move up. You can go long if the market goes up sharply, but limit your losses.
If you are out of the market:
If you're out of the market. Then you need the perfect price to trade. Long positions are possible from 3860, limit your losses. If you want to open a short position, then it is better to do it from the level of 4110, 4250. Limit your losses.
Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice.
Subscribe to my channel and you will always be aware of the movement of the S&P 500 index .
Press Boost if you agree with the current market situation.
Thank you!
Bye!