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Spx500short

SPX 500 how low can we go?In the past 2 years things were very strange, good and bad. But now again during the uncertain times, what can we expect? Well, I just put 2007-2009 crash chart, and what we can see, believe it or not, it looks very similar to the current one. What needs to happen in the world to see such a collapse or even worse than in 2008.. There can be a lot of reasons, let's point out the top points - we have "old good" money printing machine continuation, energy crisis and war in Ukraine. So regarding the war, if putin will use tactical nukes (which is possible, but before he will lose even more soldiers on the battlefield) world will be in TOTAL shock and panic!!! And if this scenario playing out (which is obviously the worst and extremely unfortunate scenario), then we can expect SPX price even lower than 2100... This is my personal opinion only. Thank you for your attention! :)
SP:SPXShort
by dsktrades
1
SPX quick update15min is diverging down, watch for 3731-32 print (I have few to short there), we came close enough though. That resistance line above it what must hold on any test, it will be quite bearish if it does today/tomorrow. Needs a gap up to confirm the low is in. I have trimmed my longs and entered with SPY Oct exp 351P, also have order to short at numbers mentioned above. For tomorrow Im looking for a higher low and move above that resistance to test the trendlines above at 3750 3750-60SPX is the next resistance after 3725-35SPX Im not shorting here till I see my 3731
SP:SPX
by RealTima
32
Selling SPX into a rally.US500 - Intraday Expiry 9pm UK - We look to Sell at 3777 (stop at 3836) Sentiment remains negative despite the pull-back higher in prices. We are assessed to be in a corrective mode higher. Horizontal resistance is seen at 3800. Resistance could prove difficult to breakdown. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 3640 and 3600 Resistance: 3800 / 4155 / 4322 Support: 3640 / 3280 / 2800 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
SPX500 getting absorbed by sellers!Hey tradomanics, currently we see an inceberg-order and absorptionat the top of the day. As long as aggressive sellers dont appear price wont drop as limit-orders can`t move the market, but we know we have a strong resistance here! Overall a fakeout-zone so watch this price carefully! A another fakeout above this orderblock could provide more liquidity to the sellers. Current situation is not very clear but buyers tend to exthaust so a drop is likely! What do you think?
FX:SPX500Short
by Trading2ez
4
Very important place to hold, I think it wontSo close to new lows. DOW already made one last Fri. SPX to make today or tomorrow imo. Too many stops below that low Jun low, Im sure algos will shave those, before turn. Fear and Greed is at Extreme fear levels, VIX is above 31-32, perfect bottoming indicators to me Below the support line (3662-58) we will see 3636-20 and my ideal target 3588 Im not going long till tomorrow BTW ES already broken support and last night low and just needs a continuation
SP:SPX
by RealTima
23
SPX pathwayThis update works only if we wont flash crash tomorrow from the open or even pre-market. Next week is a directional change week! If we hold 3636-40 on closing level it will be quite bullish imo. But I still think we will deep down to 3588SPX before it finds a good bottom. Timing is limited for Mon/Tuesday am only, so tomorrow's action is very important. I think we bottom either tomorrow or Tuesday. Regardless of that low Im going to watch Tuesday higher daily close to mark temp bottom. Ideally we see 3960SPX on the move up by early Oct. But it can be limited to 3830SPX Going to start buying tomorrow if we hit 3636-40SPX and add at 3588SPX. My pathway is this: - bottom on Tuesday - up move into 3rd/4th - down into Oct 7th Dont get trapped with shorts next 2 days!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
29
Bear Market Rally TeeteringMarket participants are wondering right now if we are merely in a bear market rally or if this is the beginning of a new long-term bull run. I thought I would write a post to share my thoughts. First, the chart above: This is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with Fibonacci levels applied. I drew Fibonacci levels from the January high to the June low to identify areas where the price of SPY may be resisted or reverse back downward. The chart is adjusted for dividends and is based on a log scale. I also placed arrows where Fibonacci levels may have acted either as support (up arrows) or resistance (down arrows). While anything can happen and it would be foolish to make a call for certain, I do genuinely believe the following: Regardless of how high the S&P 500 rallies, at some point in the future we will likely see the June bottom again. This is because the June bottom is far more important than most people realize, as I will explain below. Back on June 17th, the exact day of the bottom, I noted that SPY was likely bottoming. My charting analysis told me we were likely in the lower wick formation of the monthly candle at the time, so I knew a bottom was imminent. See the below post. In early July, I also explained that the bottom was significant. See the below post. We are currently sitting on a major level in stock market history. See the below chart. The chart above is a yearly chart of the entire 150 years of SPX price data that Trading View provides. When one analyzes the chart as if it were a shorter timeframe chart, one will see that we are teetering right on the third Fibonacci extension of the Great Depression high. That is to say, when one draws Fibonacci lines from the lowest price ever for the SPX up to the Great Depression peak and then applies Fibonacci extensions, one will see that the June bottom was precisely on the third extension of the Great Depression. (Some call it a Fibonacci extension, some refer to it as a Fibonacci Spiral, and others refer to it as a Golden Spiral. Regardless, it is a very important level.) For more information about the math and theory behind it, you check out this Wikipedia article on the Golden Spiral: en.wikipedia.org These spirals occur at points in time when markets can undergo the most dramatic declines. This occurs mathematically in the form of price unraveling to a previous Fibonacci level. In fact, very few people know that Black Monday (the 1987 Stock Market crash) occurred at the second extension of the Great Depression peak. Computers and smart money were detecting this Fibonacci level and likely led the initial phase of the sell-off, which spiraled into a panic sell-off. The above monthly chart from 1987 shows that price tried to surpass the second Fibonacci extension but failed to close above it and was repelled back down. Fast forward to the present time, the Fed Reserve's limitless quantitative easing propelled us abruptly above the third Fibonacci extension in the beginning of 2021. This important Fibonacci level actually held as support for both the 2021 low and the 2022 low (so far). See the charts below which show that the June bottom landed precisely on the 3rd Fibonacci extension. On a yearly chart, (although the yearly candle has not been completed yet), you can see that we are sitting precariously on the 3rd Fibonacci extension with a bearish hammer. This is quite concerning because it is occurring while we are on the verge of a significant recession. While I cannot explain all the reasons why I believe a significant recession is underway in this post, I have links to my prior posts explaining all the chart findings that lead me to this conclusion. You can refer to these links below. I find it concerning that so many market participants are buying into a rally while the yield curve is so inverted. Indeed, the yield curve is the most inverted it has ever been since data became available in the 1980s (as measured by a 10Y/2Y ratio). See my post below. Here's why I believe this rally is occurring. This rally was caused by two main types of market participants: Marginally informed market participants who think that inflation has peaked. While inflation very likely did peak locally, there are worrying charts that suggest elevated inflation will be persistent. Some commodities have broken out on their yearly charts, which can provide a tailwind for higher prices for years to come. So far there is no evidence in the charts that inflation is dropping precipitously enough to warrant a sudden pivot to easing by the Fed. I believe these marginally informed market participants may get whipsawed if inflation surprises back to the upside in the months or years ahead. Shorts are getting squeezed. There were plenty of signs in June that the markets needed to rally back up, no matter how bearish the long-term outlook. Many shorts missed these signs or fell victim to smart money misleading them. (Recall that right before the June low, Jamie Dimon warned that a hurricane was coming. Although this is actually true, his timing was likely not coincidental. Smart money loves to trap shorts right at the bottom and make fear-inciting statements when fear is already extreme. Basically, it's squeezing every penny out of uninformed market participants. Sadly, right at the January high Jamie Dimon said the opposite: Recall that in January 2022 he said that he sees the strongest growth in a decade . Again, trying to trap longs at the very top to squeeze every penny out of them. Never trust statements from anyone, unless they can back it up with a chart!). So we have been seeing shorts getting squeezed since June and this short squeeze has propelled the stock market higher at an unnatural and unwarranted rate. Technical reasons that I remain neutral with a bearish bias include: The weekly stochastic RSI is over-extended to the upside and ready to oscillate back down. While it's possible that price can continue higher or consolidate, despite a declining stochastic RSI, the risk-to-reward does not support rushing into long positions at this point in time. The weekly candle is still within the Ichimoku Cloud which can act as resistance. See chart below Other reasons that I remain neutral with a bearish bias: From late August through mid- to late-October stock market returns have historically remained muted or have declined. While some can argue that the VIX has broken down its trend line, I remain cautious whenever the VIX and the VVIX are so suppressed to the downside going in the August to October timeframe. This is typically a volatile part of the year. Few people noticed that last week, the weekly RSI of the VIX was the lowest in nearly a decade. This does not make any sense. Being a gauge of fear, I find it hard to believe that the fear among market participants last week was the lowest in nearly a decade (from a weekly RSI perspective). I believe that the VIX has been artificially low lately, and although I can only speculate why, I know one thing for certain: the risk-to-reward does not support entering a whole bunch of long positions at this time. Do not get caught up in the FOMO. The FED is only now just beginning to accelerate the roll-off of assets from its balance sheet. It's hard to imagine this action facilitating a bull run that breezes past new all-time highs. The value of the FED's assets is equal to a very sizable percentage of the total stock market capitalization. Rolling these assets off its balance sheet will de-leverage risk assets. Market participants buying into a rally as the Fed accelerates balance sheet roll-off is essentially fighting the Fed in my opinion. The Fed has only rolled off about 1% of its balance and we had one of the worst first 6 months of the year in stock market history. Finally, as noted above the yield curve has inverted. This means we are in a late-cycle rally. So if I am to add any longs, it will be in sectors that do well in the late cycle: Utilities, Telecom, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples. With that said, I will play very defensively and use fairly tight stops since many risk assets are still historically overvalued and overbought. I will look for strong bullish setups in only these sectors. I also see U.S. Treasuries as attractive if the Eurodollar Futures and the terminal rate remains steady, and assuming the Fed does not get crazy with its balance sheet roll-off. In summary, virtually all of the charts I have seen show that there will likely be a significant recession in the coming year(s). Be skeptical of strong rallies while the yield curve is inverted. Trade safe, never trade on emotion, and have a plan before you enter into a trade. Good luck with your trading!
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
47
Blueprint for remainder of bear marketWe are unveiling our finals paths based on the completion of waves 1 and 2 inside of our suspected final downturn for 2022. We believe we are in Sub-Millennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave A, Primary wave 5, Intermediate wave 3, Minor wave 3, and believe we may have completed Minute wave 4 at the close on Friday. Our next steps would be to complete the final Minute wave 5 drop which will simultaneously end Minor wave 3 sometime early next week. We consider our current position as a wave labeled 152A5335, which will be referred to as a wave ending in 5335 or 335. We expect this wave to be completed Monday or Tuesday at the latest. This does mean we should not only go lower than the Friday close, but we will also likely take out the June low. DETERMINING END OF MINOR WAVE 3 We expect an extension greater than 172.04% to occur for the Minor wave 3 bottom based on Minor wave 1. This would put the low beneath 3633.78. Furthermore, we expect Minute wave 5 to extend 122.05-134.03% beyond Minute wave 3 which puts the bottom between 3598-3616. This would mean we drop around 80-95 points from the Friday close which is around 2.5%. If this holds true Monday and part of Tuesday will likely continue the major drop in the index. The historical minimal move extension for waves ending in 335 is 89.35% which means Minute wave 5 must drop below 3662.62. The first quartile move is at 3616.11 and the median move would place the bottom at 3599.07. Historical moves are not necessarily accurate but most times they provide a good ballpark figure for wave movements. These levels are left most lines on the chart below. The right most lines are the historical extensions for waves ending in 533. These are the projected movement extensions for Minor 3 based on the completed movement of Minor wave 1. The yellow lines represent the historical first quartile movement (133.48%), the median (160.79%) and the third quartile (221.60%). The blue lines are the same but for waves ending in 33 (so based on many more data points, slightly less specific to our current situation). Minor wave 3 appears to be on the higher end of retracements according to the right most lines and our forecast of the bottom around 3600. Minor wave 4’s position is a complete guess right now and we will have a better idea once Minor wave 3 ends. Minor wave 2 moved up about 70 points over 24 trading hours. The movement was slow and not exactly at steep climb. Through most of our research wave 2 OR wave 4 is a quick and sharp move, while the other is slower and not as steep. Right now we would classify wave 2 as the slower one, which opens the door for Minor wave 4 to be quicker than 24 trading hours and a steeper gain. This could see a gain greater than 70 points in a much quicker timeframe ergo a 1-2 rally. Intermediate wave 3 (purple/pink/fuchsia) is placed roughly where we believe it will fall timewise, while the movement will be clarified once Minor wave 3 is completed. WHERE AND WHEN WILL PRIMARY WAVE 5 AND CYCLE WAVE A END? We try to plot out our waves and adjust once each wave completes. We firmly believe Intermediate waves 1 and 2 are complete and wave 3 is nearing completion. Wave 1 was 14 days long according to our wave count and wave 2 was 4 days long. We estimated from the beginning of Intermediate wave 3 that is would be 16 days long which still appears to look valid. We are projecting Intermediate wave 4 to be slower and not as quick as Intermediate wave 2 because wave 2 appeared to meet the criteria for quick and steep movement. Lastly, we are estimating Intermediate wave 5 will be around the lengths of waves 1 and 3 so we are projecting 15 trading days. We begin to look for real world events to explain our estimates AFTER we have plotted our estimates. In the current case. We strongly believed Intermediate wave 3 would be shaped by a bad inflation report, a week of pre-Fed speculation and then a more pronounced decline after the Fed rate decision. These appeared to hit the mark and these forecasts are viewable in our TradingView profile forever. As far as why will Intermediate wave 3 end around October 4 is a slight mystery. It is possible the JOLTS report shows some fewer jobs openings which would begin to meet some of the Fed’s dovish criteria. Nonetheless, we expect upward movement for Intermediate wave 4. Why does Intermediate wave 4 end? After we plotted this estimate we later learned this top aligns with the next inflation numbers. We project Wave 4 to end on October 12 and the inflation report arrives before the market opens on October 13. A bad report (or the perception of one) would likely tailspin the final Intermediate wave 5 down. This downtrend will likely occur all the way to the Fed rate decision which is slated for November 2. Coincidently enough, our Intermediate wave 5 projection places the market bottom on November 2. Our explanation is that the Fed reduces the rate hike to a potential 0.5% or maintains a 0.75% in order to not “interfere” with the elections which happen the next week. This was a similar consideration the Fed made before the November 2020 elections. We are forecasting the start of a major rally after the Fed decision simply based on Elliott Wave Theory. Stay tuned for more!
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
SPX all eyes on 3721 number!Resistance is at 3725-30 now. Maj support on closing level today is 3721SPX! The price is below that number. So if we close below (and Im looking for a rally back to 3730 and fail) then we could see my 3580 as early as Monday! Next week supports are: - 3662 - 3636 - 3580 - 3540-45 ES next stop is at 3666! We are below all the possible support fib extensions, new lows are coming! How do you feel now about 5500 call (I know some of you watch my channel here), being wrong all year and not admitting it its a diagnosis! Dont get trapped going into the weekend, being in cash is a position too P.S. I got stopped on todays lotto calls, 50% cut, thats why its a lotto
SP:SPX
by RealTima
12
SPX S&P500 The Bigger PictureThe FED Meeting on September 20-21 is expected to deliver 75bps hike. The decision will be announced on September 21. Some key data to consider: The annual inflation rate in the US eased for a second straight month to 8.3% in August of 2022, from 8.5% in July, but above market forecasts of 8.1%. Inflation rose for food (11.4%, the most since 1979), shelter (6.2%, the most since 1984), and used cars and trucks (7.8%). Core CPI increased 6.3% on a year, the most since March, and up markedly from 5.9% hit in both June and July. So there is a change to see even an 100bps hike next week! Under those circumstances, the economic hurricane coming our way that Jamie Dimon was preaching, could become reality: If we look at the S&P chart, we can easily presume a retracement to the $3714 support line, followed by, worst case scenario, a drop to $3100 if we are going to see more earnings revisions, like FDX did this week. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SP:SPXShort
by TopgOptions
4
Buying a falling knife..? SPXUS500 - Expiry in 24h - We look to Buy at 3676 (stop at 3602) The medium term bias remains bearish. The previous swing low is located at 3640. Price action continues to gravitate towards crucial support levels with aggressive selling interest. Support could prove difficult to breakdown. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. A higher correction is expected. Our profit targets will be 3855 and 3905 Resistance: 3855 / 3911 / 4155 Support: 3645 / 3210 / 2780 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by OANDA
SPX500| the speech of the head of the Fed J. Powell, even lower?Hello trader Today I prepared a new idea for you. Like and subscribe to the channel there is a lot of useful information✅ The stock market continues to fall before our eyes, after the harsh rhetoric of J. Powell, investors simply began to exit the stock market in batches, which actually affects further falls. Today there will be a speech by Fed Chairman J. Powell again So get ready for market volatility again! Grandpa Powell will again severely punish the markets, well, or he will say something softer and we will see a slight increase, which I actually hope for)
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by DanilBlinkov
SPX weekly end updateHi everyone, This one will be quick Its a weekly closing and I got both daily and weekly Major support at 3721-22SPX on closing level. - S2 is at 3709 - 100% extension off Aug 16 and Sep 12th highs is at 3680SPX We have Powell speaking at 2pm Eastern My trading plan for tomorrow: - currently short, both ES and NQ (ES entered at 3769.50, stop 10 points) - exit ES at 3936 - looking for a low before Powell, ideally in first couple of hours of the trading day - 3721-3709SPX and possible extension (less odds) 3680SPX (has a perfect 1.618 fib for the ES extension lower) - will buy lotto calls if we see second number - exit at the EOD ideally at 3770 level I will be entering with some lotto Monday puts if we get EOD rally and fail before the close Most important number is 3721SPX tomorrow! Closing below will bring 3660 and 3636SPX next week if not lower! There is a potential crash scenario on Monday if we get the rally into the close and fail to close on the highs. Have a good night!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
23
SPX tested the broken out trendline from the top, pushHere is last chance for the bulls to push into the close, levels to watch are 3802 and 3817 on closing level I have set a buy order at 83 with a tight stop (if it gets there again, will be a good r/r imo) Bull flagging Must close above 3786 at min for any bulls to have hope for another push to 3802-17 at min. My thoughts are either we see 3710-21 tomorrow am and rally into the 27th, or the opposite, we fail again tomorrow at 3817 and go down to 3720 and even 3680-36 by Tuesday
SP:SPX
by RealTima
19
SPX both supports broke down (added ES chart)We got my green open but it didnt really continue, I did few longs, still have one running in case its bottoming here But wont be surprised of bigger down days to come, 27th should mark some sort of a low in turn around Tuesday. I think we hit 3680 at min, be careful on the long side. The price is so weak cant even bounce much, means consolidation for lower levels. 3721 and 3636 are both maj supports to watch! (on closing level) Its a short the rip game till its not As you can see only ES is holding from falling apart
SP:SPX
by RealTima
Selling previous support on SPX.US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 3834 (stop at 3889) The medium term bias remains bearish. We can see no technical reason for a change of trend. A firmer opening is expected to challenge bearish resolve. Resistance is located at 3840 and should cap gains to this area. We look to sell rallies. Our profit targets will be 3701 and 3680 Resistance: 3840 / 4150 / 4320 Support: 3700 / 3280 / 2475 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
3
SPX: The 4 Horseman of the Apocalypse"When the Lamb opened the fourth seal, I heard the fourth living creature saying, “Come!” Behold, I saw a horse, pale greenish gray. The name of the one riding on it was Death" Hello, and welcome to the Apocalypse :D With SPY/SPX recent moves, I thought I'd scan history to see if there's anything unique about the pattern we see today. I wasn't disappointed. The best way I can describe it so far is a decline + 3 bear market rallies that I highlight here (weekly charts): This pattern has been present 5 other times in history, 4 of which ended in declines ranging from -37% to -56%. After the 3rd bear market rally, a 4th comes. The 4th horseman of the apocalypse signaling the end is nigh! Keep in mind that recognizing patterns has an element of bias to it and these were all identified to the best of my abilities. Hmmmmmm... 1966 23% move down from the highs 238 days from top to bottom 1968 37% move down from the highs 532 days from top to bottom 1973 50% move down from the highs 630 days from top to bottom 2000 50% move down from the highs 693 days from top to bottom 2007 56% move down from the highs 511 days from top to bottom Another interesting thing to note is that they seem to happen in sets of 2 with the second downturn moving 10%-13% lower than the first low. 1968-1974 2000-2009 If this pattern does in fact play out, it would mean this chart can guide you into the future of when to buy for the next bull market, and when to sell before the next decline. What's also interesting to take note of is that although our current issues of inflation are more related to the 70s than 2000-08, the market movements are more in line with the speed of 2000-08. 68-73 slowly fell from the top and then quickly fell to the bottom whereas 00-08 quickly fell from the top and slowly fell towards the bottom (time wise). For that reason, most of my predictions are based on 00-08. Lastly I'll post my projection for the end of this recession. You can look at my previous post which mapped the exact moves of 00 and 08 based on time and percentage.
SP:SPXShort
by PlayerNonZero