Posted this on the 12th of Sep, playing out so well!!!I did post this warning on Sep 12th as well as emailed to those who are on my email list.
Check the MACD on that day and now! It created a hook and continued lower, bearish!
Some people noted and didnt get trapped on that day, it was daily high close
DO NOT GET TRAPPED Today!!!
Dont short this red whole!
Have to leave, will be back in few hours, again dont get trapped on the short side today!
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Spx500short
Watch for S1 to hold on closing level!S1 is right at first gap to fill 3831, can act as a very good support.
So again, its a day when I will be buying longs, question is from what price.
Ideally I buy at 3802-18 level, but might buy at higher price if I see that S1 holding into the close and no new lows.
Please note
Futs can always extend into AH's session
DO NOT GET TRAPPED Today!!!
Dont short this red whole today!
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SPX500 continues to kill the cryptocurrency market!Hello trader Today I prepared a new idea for you. Like and subscribe to the channel there is a lot of useful information✅
After the release of the results on the consumer price index from the FOMC, the downward movement continues, what to expect next?
Speaking from the technical side, the asset has broken through the global trendline, which was a strong support, I expect the next stop in the zone of 3700-3750
Also, do not forget that next week the FOMC is expected again on the key rate, there will be results of an increase by 0.75 bp, we should expect again volatility in the stock market!
SPX Sep 16th updateThe price has broke down and Im waiting for 3880-86SPX to be lost.
Ideally we gap down below 3880-86 and it becomes a resistance.
Futs already down and below those numbers if convert to SPX.
My pathway for tomorrow is to buy a gap down to 3802-18 for at least a day or 2 bounce.
- There is nothing but air after 3880-86 is lost, all the way to the numbers above.
- If we loose 3800, next support is not there till 3750-52SPX
Im looking for a low in am and reversal into the close and Monday/Tue high
On the other hand we held 3888 level today, close enough to my support zone, so if it gaps up, it could be quite a big squeeze imo. But I give low odds for the gap up scenario.
Its a weekly closing, important numbers to watch are:
- Weekly support is at 3720-22SPX
- Next weekly support is at 3635-40SPX
- Weekly resistance is at 4018-20SPX
We should bottom next week, ideally at or after FOMC decision, then rally up in another bear market rally into second week of Oct and continue lower into Oct final low for this year.
- Next week low is expected to hit 3750 or 3680SPX
Final low I have is at 3580SPX. i was looking for 34-35 handle to get hit, it should get there sooner then later imo
If it gets hit next week, then we will see 32 handle in Oct
The trend is down till it's not!
Have a good night, rest and get ready for tomorrow...
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S&P with dotcom overlay - is the S&P heading for a 50% fall??The chart shows the current S&P price action with an analog overlay of the dotcom bear market.
Scenarios;
1/ Near term support at 3900
2/ Mid term support at 3600
3/ Longer term support at 3200
A break of all 3 of these support areas could possibly see a fall to 2345 or even covid19 lows.
SPX Sep 15th mid day updateI was sleeping in today, no point to trade this market but hold swing short position.
Mid Bollinger or 20MA crossed 110MA on daily, not a good sign for the bulls. MACD is still making new lows.
This seems to get to 3680SPX by the FOMC decision or right after.
Main resistance now is at 4030-45SPX
Mid resistance is at 3970-85SPX and I think we wont get above on any test, like it came short yesterday.
I will short 3970-85 level for a continuation of this move down
So far its breaking down here to my eyes and should follow through soon.
Main support is at 3880-86 now! On closing level
I will be trying long at 3880-86SPX tomorrow am, but its OPEX day and all the quarterly hedges will be off the lines and this can unleash much bigger swings in both directions, but main direction is down.
After the FOMC meeting 3680 should produce a good size bounce and ideally we see lower in Oct, 35-34 handle is very doable imo.
So need to over trade this as it chops both sides!
2HR - ES1 WENT HIGHER THAN SPY/SPX - NEXT WEEK SHORT I wont rattle off the fundamental reasons this was all a A FOMO RALLY to retrace the last sell off..
Now we are done and can see a Red Week
C.P.I number will be a catalyst ....and since the FEDS are signaling another .75% hike next following week
So to all my bearish friends
-------------
And the solid candles' red glare, the gamma bursting in air,
Gave proof through the night that our SHORT was still there.
O say, does that open position yet wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave?
SPX MACD hook formation - warned Monday amI did warn about this possible outcome early Monday am
All we need is to gap down tomorrow (which has a high probability now as we closed below 3955 and especially 3935)
Then the downside targets will be 3775 and even 3680. It can even stretch to 3450 if Jun lows are broken.
Only a gap up tomorrow can save from this pathway for now.
Dont pay attention to the chart, but the MACD
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SPX faile to even touch 4k zone - 3955SPX is nextSo far so good for lower levels
- 3945-55 must hold and I think it will not go lower today.
If we close at the lows, there is a potential of gaping down below 3935 tomorrow, which will make 3885 next target.
Main target on the downside to hold is 3800-20 as a must hold on any test.
Below 3800 we will see 3720 and 3635-40!!!
Watching the close, riding short from 3992SPX
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SPX500 Short setup +200 pips- We can see clearly a bearish impulsive movement from 4200 supply zone.
- Price started to consolidate 3900 (sign of Reversal).
- Price Started to rise and broke last highs with a slow bullish movement.
- We will wait for the price to reach 4200 then we may short it to 4000.
SPX can extend to a higher high before the 21st or fail hardIts all about 4125-35, 4150-60 and 4202SPX now.
All 3 are resistance levels!
Support is at 4085-90 and 4025, below it we should see 3955SPX
Im not sure about the exact pathway, so my game plan is to short 4145-60 and 4202 zone. If we breakout I will flip for a trip back to 4285-92 and even over 4300SPX
Please note, that this can even extend to 4425 just to screw everyone out on both sides and then sell hard.
So regardless of the situation, I will be short (if we make a new high) or long (if we make a higher low) on the 20-21st or before the FOMC.
Ideally we spike up to 4125-35 and even 4145-60SPX tomorrow and sell off into Fri OPEX low. That low should produce a good setup for a few days rally before the FOMC decision on the 21st.
One certain thing is that the Oct low should provide a good buy and hold setup going into EOY high.
Ideally we make a new low in Oct and then higher low in Nov (before the Midterms) and then off we go together with Santa.
Jan (in case of the above scenario) should mark the high and then we should see lows in Apr.
Levels of importance tomorrow:
- 4145
- 4160-62
Closing above those levels will get us back to 4195-4205SPX by Fri.
Im going to short tomorrow's gap for the crap scenario. Ideally we hit 4125-35 or even 4145-60 in am and crap from there.
Have a good night
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SP500 entering sell zone. 1:3 R:R sell tradeLast week I said that SP500 is drawing a nasty picture and although we can have a rebound from the recent ascending trend line, this will not change the longer-term bearish perspective.
Indeed, we had this rebound and now the SP500 index is trading in a very strong sell zone that is set between 4100 and 4200.
In my opinion, a reversal to the downside will follow from this zone and traders should look for selling opportunities.
This outlook is intact as long as the price is under 4300 and bears can target the previous low for their sell short trades.
SPX is very close to my first target outlined for a while nowI missed most of the day, Im waiting for my 4125-35 test to short and exit some longs I have running since last week (those were under the water at some point, now nicely in green)
Want to see some pullback into the close and then spike up tomorrow to hit the target zone for a fakeout move.
High tomorrow and low on the 16th, then we should rally to 4200 and even 4285-91SPX by or before 21st FOMC meeting
4085 is now support!
This chart is from 6th of Sep
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SPX500 about to fall!Hey tradomaniacs,
looks like SPX500 is ready to fall again soon unless news give us any other input.
So far Market-Depth has shown on overshoot with trapped buyers right at resistance.
Another re-test with e.g. SL-Hunt could confirm this setup! Technically a good spot to sell.
Let`s see! =)
SPX/SPY Fib Retracement Key Levels I've been watching SPX/SPY very closely to see which direction it decides to go through the rest of the year. We are at a VERY IMPORTANT range. Initially the top trend line acted as resistance and short bias looked to be validated with the reject of the 0.681 golden zone. You can see a bounce off the shorter term long bias 0.681 retracement almost perfectly from this years low. Short term long needs to hold 0.618 for us to see retest of highs trend line. This will be the best entry point for short position into the rest of the year as a retest to break out of channel is going to likely reject. Ultimately SHORT bias long term , potentially LONG bias short term .
Short Term PT $420
Long Term PT $334
SPY S&P 500 September is historically the worst month for stocksTwo months have delivered an average negative return for stocks since 1945: February and September, the latter being the worst.
Economic context:
Russia will not restart gas supplies to Europe through a key pipeline until western sanctions are lifted.
OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to cut output in October by 100,000 barrels a day.
August 2022 CPI data are scheduled to be released on September 13, 2022.
Fed’s next scheduled monetary policy meeting takes place on September 20-21. Depending on how inflation is trending and how the jobs markets and overall economy is looking we expect a Fed Rate Decisions of 50bps or 75bps hike.
The crypto market context is not good either. Ethereum network’s security and performance could be negatively impacted by the upcoming Merge.
Taking into consideration the information above, my price target for the SPY ETF is $374.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
#SPX 5th Corrective Wave Continuation for #SP500 4 corrective waves succesfully done and now proceed to 5th wave. Probable targets are given on the chart. This was the most important part, the technical analysis . Neither global conditions (EU Energy crysis, war threats, inflation and covid rise), neither astrologic conditions (Jupiter retro will not leave 23 - 28th Oct) doesn' t allow a real bounce. And #dollar index $DXY is growing and EUR is weakening. It' s time be most careful. After the 5th wave dip, an ABC bounce is expected. Not financial advice. DYOR.