SP500 entering sell zone. 1:3 R:R sell tradeLast week I said that SP500 is drawing a nasty picture and although we can have a rebound from the recent ascending trend line, this will not change the longer-term bearish perspective.
Indeed, we had this rebound and now the SP500 index is trading in a very strong sell zone that is set between 4100 and 4200.
In my opinion, a reversal to the downside will follow from this zone and traders should look for selling opportunities.
This outlook is intact as long as the price is under 4300 and bears can target the previous low for their sell short trades.
Spx500short
SPX is very close to my first target outlined for a while nowI missed most of the day, Im waiting for my 4125-35 test to short and exit some longs I have running since last week (those were under the water at some point, now nicely in green)
Want to see some pullback into the close and then spike up tomorrow to hit the target zone for a fakeout move.
High tomorrow and low on the 16th, then we should rally to 4200 and even 4285-91SPX by or before 21st FOMC meeting
4085 is now support!
This chart is from 6th of Sep
P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well.
Thanks in advance!
SPX500 about to fall!Hey tradomaniacs,
looks like SPX500 is ready to fall again soon unless news give us any other input.
So far Market-Depth has shown on overshoot with trapped buyers right at resistance.
Another re-test with e.g. SL-Hunt could confirm this setup! Technically a good spot to sell.
Let`s see! =)
SPX/SPY Fib Retracement Key Levels I've been watching SPX/SPY very closely to see which direction it decides to go through the rest of the year. We are at a VERY IMPORTANT range. Initially the top trend line acted as resistance and short bias looked to be validated with the reject of the 0.681 golden zone. You can see a bounce off the shorter term long bias 0.681 retracement almost perfectly from this years low. Short term long needs to hold 0.618 for us to see retest of highs trend line. This will be the best entry point for short position into the rest of the year as a retest to break out of channel is going to likely reject. Ultimately SHORT bias long term , potentially LONG bias short term .
Short Term PT $420
Long Term PT $334
SPY S&P 500 September is historically the worst month for stocksTwo months have delivered an average negative return for stocks since 1945: February and September, the latter being the worst.
Economic context:
Russia will not restart gas supplies to Europe through a key pipeline until western sanctions are lifted.
OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to cut output in October by 100,000 barrels a day.
August 2022 CPI data are scheduled to be released on September 13, 2022.
Fed’s next scheduled monetary policy meeting takes place on September 20-21. Depending on how inflation is trending and how the jobs markets and overall economy is looking we expect a Fed Rate Decisions of 50bps or 75bps hike.
The crypto market context is not good either. Ethereum network’s security and performance could be negatively impacted by the upcoming Merge.
Taking into consideration the information above, my price target for the SPY ETF is $374.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
#SPX 5th Corrective Wave Continuation for #SP500 4 corrective waves succesfully done and now proceed to 5th wave. Probable targets are given on the chart. This was the most important part, the technical analysis . Neither global conditions (EU Energy crysis, war threats, inflation and covid rise), neither astrologic conditions (Jupiter retro will not leave 23 - 28th Oct) doesn' t allow a real bounce. And #dollar index $DXY is growing and EUR is weakening. It' s time be most careful. After the 5th wave dip, an ABC bounce is expected. Not financial advice. DYOR.
S&P500 - watch for short term downsideGood afternoon everyone,
Watch for short term sell setup (bearish flag) that could prove completed if the price breaks the small corrective structure (black trend line).
The target is a rather strong support level @3970, which could yield @2% profit.
Nonetheless, trade with care as this is a short term setup and, despite the negative news flow for risk assets recently, a sharp reaction to the key support level below is likely probable.
Wish you all the best trades,
PTFX
Disclaimer: This post does not provide any kind of financial advice. It is for educational purposes only and solely supported by my understanding of the technical figure based on wave theory.
US500 BEARISH OUTLOOKAfter the speech of Fed chairman Jerome Powell last Friday, on which he clearly stated that the main goal of Federal Reserve is to stabilize prices and will remain hawkish on interest rates, expectations of increased strength of the USD made big portion of the investors to sell their shares and increase the amount of dollars they are holding, which plummeted the price of S&P500.
RSI indicator is below 30 level and MACD is below zero as well, which also indicates a bearish trend.
The instrument broke the support at 4109 and continues to decline. If this pattern continues, the instrument might test its levels at 3940. Otherwise, if the trend reverses, the price might test levels at 4060.
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SPX end of the week updateI had no time to post this last night, but I did the ES.
We did hit my upper target at 4210-20, reversed and never looked back!
Was looking for this move for several days now, but it came so big, I didnt expect to have so much of a move in 1 day.
This gives me more confidence on my lower target zone to hit 3930-50SPX
So for today's close 2 very important numbers are:
- 4157
-4125
Closing below second number will make me even more confident of seeing that lower target next week.
Main supports are:
- 4078 (expect a good bounce from this number, ideally to test 5150 level)
- 4050
Main daily resistance is at 4177 now
have a great weekend
calm before the storm?a larger than expected gap up this morning with no fundamental change to remove the underlying bearish atmosphere.
was this gap up the last opportunity to go short ahead of the fed meeting tomorrow?
or is this simply retail traders eagerly investing extra funds they were saving to pay off their loans, despite market circumstances?
please leave a comment, curious to hear opinions on the matter.
SPX level of importance is 4145 on closingMorning, quick update here
Lets see if we close below 4145 again, then we are going down into the 29th low
I have a main resistance to hit at 4166+-, above it it can stretch to 4175-76, should hold the night highs today and make a lower high during the regular hours imo
Im going to short 4166 and 4175-76 with a stop
Im currently long ES from 4148, tight stop there
SPX must watch number for the close is 4135.30!Watch 4135.30SPX number, closing below will flush tomorrow and vice versa!
1h is showing a positive divergence when 15min is actually setting up for a flush, RSI is below 50, MACD below 0.
It should give one way or another!
Very interesting thing is this, next stop is at 4069-80 and nothing till 3951!
On the upside must close above 4140.20 for a push higher.
Resistance is at 4140, 4211 and 4308.50 (again)
My bottoming timing is on the 25th
Be prepared for large sell off of $SPX around 4350 levelThe moving average 300 is an indicator of trends for the S&P 500, and prices often tumble to it during bull market rallies or bounce to it in bear market rallies. Currently, $SPX is making a push towards the moving average 300, which is currently‘ at 4350.34. At this level, the volume histogram indicator across a 200 day timeframe and 500 day timeframe shows that there was historically a very high volume executed, which indicates that this may be a critical point for the market, and lots of volume may happen when it is reached.
Given that US markets are now in a recession, as dictated by two quarters of negative GDP growth, the war is still ongoing, and inflation rates are still high, I'd personally guess that the current rally is a bull market trap, which will reach the MA 300 then experience large volume and reverse downwards.
Comparing the current situation to two crashes, 2008 and 2020, I'd say that the state of the market is more similar to 2008, where prices came close to the ma 300 then crashed, instead of 2020, where the stock market rallied strongly after crossing over the moving average 300. This is because, in 2020, the rally after the crash was largely fueled by the federal reserve's quantitative easing and asset buying, whereas now in 2022, the federal reserve's actions are on the opposite end, with "quantitative tightening" and rate hikes.
Resistance appears to have held and now to electionsIf 198 days is the approximately length of Cycle Wave A (as is the current expectation), the following timelines could be true:
Supercycle 2 could be ~ 813 days (final bottom is March 2025)
A is ~ 25% of the overall wave it resides
Cycle A would be ~ 198 days
INSIDE CYCLE WAVE A
1 is ~20% of the overall wave it resides:
This would make Primary 1 ~ 40 days
Primary 1 was actually 35 days long
2 is ~9% of the overall wave it resides:
This would make Primary 2 ~ 18 days
Primary 2 was actually 23 days long
3 is ~38% of the overall wave it resides:
This would make Primary 3 ~ 75 days
Primary 3 was actually 56 days long
4 is ~17% of the overall wave it resides:
This would make Primary 4 ~ 34 days
Primary 4 was actually 40 days long
5 is ~23% of the overall wave it resides:
This would make Primary 5 ~ 45 days
There is certainly some give and take as these median percentages of primary waves add up beyond 100% (107%). Some waves were longer and others under as well.
I drew a resistance line based on the beginning of Cycle wave 2 on January 4 and the next highest peak where Primary wave 2 ended. IF Primary 4 has indeed ended, it just missed this resistance line. A support line was drawn similarly based on the first major low since the January top. This first low was the end of Intermediate wave 3 in Primary wave 1 and the second low was the end of Primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 briefly dropped below this line 3 times, however, I am maintaining it as the source of a potential bottom.
I am working on something new by plotting the most agreed end dates based on my computer models instead of the top 1 or 2. The most agreement has Primary wave 5 lasting 28 or 40 days (8 models each).
I have additionally cross-hatched Fibonacci levels and percent extensions for wave 5 to potentially end. The first quartile extension 112.36%, median extension is 135.09%, and the third quartile is 204%. Based on all of these dates and cross-hatch points, I do not expect a low beyond 3136 or the bottom occurring after December 8.
My comfort target bottom would likely occur on or before election day likely around 3300. We shall see what happens.