Spx500short
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Analysis: Key Levels and Expectations.SP:SPX My Take:
Looking at the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 Index, it's clear that we're approaching a critical juncture. The price recently rallied up to the $5,630 - $5,655 resistance zone, which has been a significant barrier in the past. However, this level has proven to be tough for the bulls to break through, and we're now seeing signs of potential exhaustion.
Key Levels:
Resistance:
$5,620 - $5,630: This is the zone where the price is currently facing resistance. It’s a crucial area to watch because a failure to break above it could result in a pullback.
Support:
$5,480 - $5,440: If we see a rejection from the current resistance, I'm expecting the price to retrace towards this support zone. This area has acted as a strong floor in the past, and it's likely where buyers might step in again.
Trendline Support:
The upward trendline, originating from the lows earlier this year, is still intact. This trendline could provide additional support around the $5,280 level if the price breaks through the aforementioned support zone.
Expectations:
Pullback Potential:
Given the current price action, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback from this resistance zone. The first area I'll be watching for potential support is the $5,480 - $5,440 zone. A break below this could bring us down to test the trendline around $5,280.
Continuation of the Uptrend:
If the bulls manage to push through the $5,620 - $5,630 resistance zone, we could see a continuation of the uptrend with a possible target towards $5,700 and beyond. But for now, I’m leaning towards the possibility of a short-term pullback before any further upside.
Food for Thoughts:
Right now, I’m closely watching how the price reacts around this resistance zone. A pullback could offer a good buying opportunity, especially if it holds above the $5,480 - $5,440 support area. On the other hand, a strong breakout above $5,630 would signal that the bulls are in control and could push the market to new highs.
Stay tuned for more updates as the situation develops! Happy Trading from Deno Trading!
Is this a SELL SIGNAL for S&P 500 this week???Technical speaking, we have predicted that last week, the s&p 500 might started to rebound, since we've seen three to four bearish candles before trend reversal in the past pullbacks, and last week was the forth candle of this pullback. And it just moved as we've predicted.
And for now, the price is still rebounding from overall bearish market. So this week, we might pay close attention to the ending signal of this rebound, for example, the price be rejected by the resistance of previous low.
Key macroeconomic dates include the U.S. releasing the July PPI on August 13, the July CPI on August 14, and the so-called "dreaded" July retail sales data on August 15.
Also, Japan will release its Q2 GDP, likely stirring the pot again with yen carry trades.
In political news, the latest Financial Times poll shows Harris with a 1% lead over Trump in the presidential race.
I think from economic reports to the election, all could drive more volatility in U.S. stocks. Investors should keep a close eye on market movements and manage their risks accordingly.
Will the Stock Market Crash Continue? My Trading ideasOn the macro level, the Bank of Japan says it won't raise rates when the market's unstable, which helped calm the market this morning.
But rising tensions in the Middle East are making investors nervous.
I think in these shaky times, it's smart to spread out your investments and focus on safer bets like healthcare, consumer goods, and utilities.
You might also consider using options to protect against short-term losses.
Now let's check s&p 500 from technical aspect.
The price is moving in an overall bearish market, but recently, it be supported by previous high volume candle area.
Now the point we may need to pay attention is the yesterday's bearish engulfing pattern, since the price started to drop after this pattern of previous callback. Therefore, the price may continue to go bearish later.
And traders who are interested in short trading, like me, may be a good timing to watch now.
SPX500 to continue in the downward move?US500 - 24H expiry
Traded to the lowest level in 12 weeks.
We have a 78.6% Fibonacci pullback level of 5136 from 4930 to 5680.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs.
We look to set shorts at our bespoke indicator level (5273).
We look to Sell at 5273 (stop at 5321)
Our profit targets will be 5150 and 5136
Resistance: 5273 / 5338 / 5404
Support: 5175 / 5136 / 5091
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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Eyeing the Key 0.618 Fibonacci Level Amid Rising Wedge BreakdownCurrent Price Action:
- The S&P 500 is currently trading around 5,346.55, having experienced a recent pullback.
- A significant decline of about 13.51% from the recent highs is indicated, bringing the index to around 4,703.08, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
Fibonacci Retracement:
- The 0.618 Fibonacci level at approximately 4,703.08 is a critical area to watch. This level is typically considered a strong support zone in technical analysis, and a bounce from this level could be anticipated if buyers step in.
Rising Wedge Pattern:
- A rising wedge pattern has been identified, which is generally a bearish signal. This pattern suggests that the recent uptrend might be losing momentum and could lead to a significant price correction.
- The break below the lower trendline of the rising wedge confirms the bearish outlook, supporting the expectation that the price might head toward the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Immediate support is seen at the 0.5 Fibonacci level around 4,887.58.
- The major support level to watch is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 4,703.08.
- On the resistance side, the recent high near 5,669.34 acts as a critical resistance level. If the index manages to reverse and break above this level, it could invalidate the bearish scenario.
Technical Indicators:
- The moving averages are currently showing a downward slope, indicating bearish momentum.
- The EMA ribbons (colored bands) are compressing, suggesting a potential shift in trend.
Conclusion:
- Given the break of the rising wedge pattern and the target of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, the outlook for the S&P 500 appears bearish in the short term.
- Traders should watch for a potential bounce at the 0.618 level around 4,703.08, as it might serve as a strong support area.
- If the index fails to hold this level, further downside towards the 4,440 region could be expected.
U.S. Stocks' foreseeable goalsThe most important index for the reflection of the American Stocks market is the SP:SPX , so let's start with it. Unfortunately, now the chart of this index is not rich in models, so the current logic of movements in our opinion is described by the EXP model from July 30 on the daily timeframe👇
As long as the price is below the 4-point level (5 390.95), the target levels are 100% (5 125.93) and 200% (4 873.94). In case the price returns above the level of 4 point and goes beyond the trend line, there will be a second attempt to reach the target resistance level of 5 582.31 - the formally reached target of the impulse of August 1. It is necessary to mention that this pattern, despite being on the daily timeframe - is weak.
In addition, let's look at a chart of the NASDAQ:NDX - this index includes the 100 largest non-financial companies traded on the Nasdaq exchange, primarily technology stocks.
Consideration of this index is additionally interesting because most institutional managers consider BINANCE:BTCUSDT to be in the technology sector, so NASDAQ:NDX and BINANCE:BTCUSDT is often correlated.
First, let's look at the AMEXP model that formed in mid-March 2023 on the weekly timeframe and described the entire uptrend within the 2023-2024 period on this index👇
In this model we are primarily interested in the level of HP (18 289.68), currently acting as an extreme support on the weekly timeframe, and if the price can consolidate under this level, the next support will be the level of 100% (15 891.73).
More locally, on the daily timeframe, the current movement is described by the EXP model from July 24, where the price has already reached the first target level of 100% (18 355.48)👇
It is very interesting that now on NASDAQ:NDX the price has settled in the zone of 18 355.45-18 289.68 formed by 100% and HP levels and if we don't see a rebound soon and the price tries to consolidate under this zone, the next target level will be 17 296.42.
By the way, we do not exclude that the movement towards 17,296.42 will be accompanied by an attempt of CME:BTC1! to close the CME GEP at the level of $57,805👇
Urgent Market Alert: Potential Coordinated ReversalIndian stock market started showing reversal signs.
The upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 8:30 AM EST (6:00 PM IST) is a pivotal event with the potential to trigger a reversal in the US market. This data point will provide crucial insights into inflationary pressures, which are a primary concern for the Federal Reserve and investors alike. In case the reversal doesn’t happen, follow technical levels.
Is this a wedge I see before me?I have noticed that the rally since 2022 lows is forming itself into a decent rising wedge pattern on the SPX.
There is also a small RSI divergence in place that has since migrated to the hourly time frames.
This could be indicative.
There is also a disappointing looking NFP report in the pipeline this week.
I have no active trade, and I will not take a position on this until it confirms (likely to be later in the month if it does confirm) however, I believe that the pattern here which has 3 touchpoints at resistance and 3 touchpoints at support (suggesting the pattern is well defined) warrants attention from traders.
Watch out and trade safe!
US500SP:SPX TVC:SPX CBOE:SPX SPREADEX:SPX
This analysis was performed by a neural network based on all signals from the indicator CCPR
#US500 #1d #BrownDot
06/13/2024 | 5432.81
#google/gemini-flash-1.5
### Analysis of the current situation: (funding and volume)
*Funding: Funding on the US500 is in negative territory, indicating that sellers are more active than buyers.
*Volume: Trading volume on the US500 has been above average in recent days, indicating increased interest in the market.
### Support and resistance level:
* Resistance level: 5440, 5480
* Support level: 5380, 5340.
### Forecast for US500 price movement relative to the dollar:
#### Brief immediate forecast:
*Probability: 60%
* Movement: The price is expected to drop by $500 in the coming days.
* Signals: There is a strong signal for a downward reversal (BrownDot), which is confirmed by a weak buyer (BIGREDDOT) and negative funding.
#### Medium-term forecast:
*Probability: 40%
* Movement: The price is expected to increase by US$500 in the medium term.
* Signals: There is a downward divergence (DivergenceDOWN), which can be a trend reversal signal and preserves all previous downward signals.
#### Motion reliability:
* Up: 40%
*Down: 60%
### Conclusions:
* The current situation in the US500 market indicates a trend toward gradual price declines.
* However, a downward divergence signal (DivergenceDOWN) can be a trend reversal signal and leaves all previous signals to fall.
### Recommendations for entering the position:
* Short: Apply an open short position on US500 with a target of 5340, stop loss of 5400.
* Long: thus delay opening long positions until the trend reverses.
Additional factors to monitor:
* News: Stay tuned for news that may appear in the $500 market, for example, for the publication of data on dynamics, interest rates, etc.
*Volume: Follow trade analysis to ensure signal strength.
Data for analysis:
*Price: Keep an eye on the $500 price to determine its movement.
* Indicators: Use indicators to give signals.
*Volume: Follow trade research to identify strength signals.