Spx500short
SPX/SPY Fib Retracement Key Levels I've been watching SPX/SPY very closely to see which direction it decides to go through the rest of the year. We are at a VERY IMPORTANT range. Initially the top trend line acted as resistance and short bias looked to be validated with the reject of the 0.681 golden zone. You can see a bounce off the shorter term long bias 0.681 retracement almost perfectly from this years low. Short term long needs to hold 0.618 for us to see retest of highs trend line. This will be the best entry point for short position into the rest of the year as a retest to break out of channel is going to likely reject. Ultimately SHORT bias long term , potentially LONG bias short term .
Short Term PT $420
Long Term PT $334
SPY S&P 500 September is historically the worst month for stocksTwo months have delivered an average negative return for stocks since 1945: February and September, the latter being the worst.
Economic context:
Russia will not restart gas supplies to Europe through a key pipeline until western sanctions are lifted.
OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to cut output in October by 100,000 barrels a day.
August 2022 CPI data are scheduled to be released on September 13, 2022.
Fed’s next scheduled monetary policy meeting takes place on September 20-21. Depending on how inflation is trending and how the jobs markets and overall economy is looking we expect a Fed Rate Decisions of 50bps or 75bps hike.
The crypto market context is not good either. Ethereum network’s security and performance could be negatively impacted by the upcoming Merge.
Taking into consideration the information above, my price target for the SPY ETF is $374.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
#SPX 5th Corrective Wave Continuation for #SP500 4 corrective waves succesfully done and now proceed to 5th wave. Probable targets are given on the chart. This was the most important part, the technical analysis . Neither global conditions (EU Energy crysis, war threats, inflation and covid rise), neither astrologic conditions (Jupiter retro will not leave 23 - 28th Oct) doesn' t allow a real bounce. And #dollar index $DXY is growing and EUR is weakening. It' s time be most careful. After the 5th wave dip, an ABC bounce is expected. Not financial advice. DYOR.
61.8 is at 3899.75must revert from there or its a crash Tuesday!
3910, then 3922 and main resistance/support is at 3943.50SPX
13 min left
Just wondering how many expect this?4020-23SPX is the must watch, failing to regain it by tomorrow's close, will be super bearish imo!
I know many are trapped and can be in denial, get protection!
Im going to enter with lotto Sep 6th puts if we see 4020 today/tomorrow
S&P500 - watch for short term downsideGood afternoon everyone,
Watch for short term sell setup (bearish flag) that could prove completed if the price breaks the small corrective structure (black trend line).
The target is a rather strong support level @3970, which could yield @2% profit.
Nonetheless, trade with care as this is a short term setup and, despite the negative news flow for risk assets recently, a sharp reaction to the key support level below is likely probable.
Wish you all the best trades,
PTFX
Disclaimer: This post does not provide any kind of financial advice. It is for educational purposes only and solely supported by my understanding of the technical figure based on wave theory.
$SPX Daily - Rockin' the Casbah 2023$SPX Trade Idea into 2023. Now the king told the boogie men, You have to let that raga drop. Rockin' the Casbah, rock the Casbah.🎶
TP - $3441.04
US500 BEARISH OUTLOOKAfter the speech of Fed chairman Jerome Powell last Friday, on which he clearly stated that the main goal of Federal Reserve is to stabilize prices and will remain hawkish on interest rates, expectations of increased strength of the USD made big portion of the investors to sell their shares and increase the amount of dollars they are holding, which plummeted the price of S&P500.
RSI indicator is below 30 level and MACD is below zero as well, which also indicates a bearish trend.
The instrument broke the support at 4109 and continues to decline. If this pattern continues, the instrument might test its levels at 3940. Otherwise, if the trend reverses, the price might test levels at 4060.
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SPX end of the week updateI had no time to post this last night, but I did the ES.
We did hit my upper target at 4210-20, reversed and never looked back!
Was looking for this move for several days now, but it came so big, I didnt expect to have so much of a move in 1 day.
This gives me more confidence on my lower target zone to hit 3930-50SPX
So for today's close 2 very important numbers are:
- 4157
-4125
Closing below second number will make me even more confident of seeing that lower target next week.
Main supports are:
- 4078 (expect a good bounce from this number, ideally to test 5150 level)
- 4050
Main daily resistance is at 4177 now
have a great weekend
SPX - 2008 vs 2022$SPX 2W Timeframe - 2018 vs 2022
2008:
- 7 MA crosses 25 MA, market drops towards 100 MA.
- Retests 25 MA before further falling down 50%.
2022:
- 7 MA crosses 25 MA, market drops towards 100 MA.
- Retests 25 MA (Currently) with a very bearish candlestick.
Gapping up into reversal in the short term?it appears to be a now mildly bullish sentiment in the short term, but a period of uncertainty with low volatility.
what technical indicators does anyone think were present for today's short term reversal?
calm before the storm?a larger than expected gap up this morning with no fundamental change to remove the underlying bearish atmosphere.
was this gap up the last opportunity to go short ahead of the fed meeting tomorrow?
or is this simply retail traders eagerly investing extra funds they were saving to pay off their loans, despite market circumstances?
please leave a comment, curious to hear opinions on the matter.
SPX level of importance is 4145 on closingMorning, quick update here
Lets see if we close below 4145 again, then we are going down into the 29th low
I have a main resistance to hit at 4166+-, above it it can stretch to 4175-76, should hold the night highs today and make a lower high during the regular hours imo
Im going to short 4166 and 4175-76 with a stop
Im currently long ES from 4148, tight stop there
SPX500 SHORT for ABCD COMPLETIONLooking at a short off Right Shoulder H&S Pattern
Looking to hold at Minimum ABCD pattern completion C-D Leg
SPX must watch number for the close is 4135.30!Watch 4135.30SPX number, closing below will flush tomorrow and vice versa!
1h is showing a positive divergence when 15min is actually setting up for a flush, RSI is below 50, MACD below 0.
It should give one way or another!
Very interesting thing is this, next stop is at 4069-80 and nothing till 3951!
On the upside must close above 4140.20 for a push higher.
Resistance is at 4140, 4211 and 4308.50 (again)
My bottoming timing is on the 25th
SHORT ON SPX500Previous weekly target reached. I'm bearish now on the SPX500.
That being said, I'd like to see this move happen.
Just studying price until August ends.
Be prepared for large sell off of $SPX around 4350 levelThe moving average 300 is an indicator of trends for the S&P 500, and prices often tumble to it during bull market rallies or bounce to it in bear market rallies. Currently, $SPX is making a push towards the moving average 300, which is currently‘ at 4350.34. At this level, the volume histogram indicator across a 200 day timeframe and 500 day timeframe shows that there was historically a very high volume executed, which indicates that this may be a critical point for the market, and lots of volume may happen when it is reached.
Given that US markets are now in a recession, as dictated by two quarters of negative GDP growth, the war is still ongoing, and inflation rates are still high, I'd personally guess that the current rally is a bull market trap, which will reach the MA 300 then experience large volume and reverse downwards.
Comparing the current situation to two crashes, 2008 and 2020, I'd say that the state of the market is more similar to 2008, where prices came close to the ma 300 then crashed, instead of 2020, where the stock market rallied strongly after crossing over the moving average 300. This is because, in 2020, the rally after the crash was largely fueled by the federal reserve's quantitative easing and asset buying, whereas now in 2022, the federal reserve's actions are on the opposite end, with "quantitative tightening" and rate hikes.
S&P500 possible short for 4120weekly key reversal bar made a new high closed of the low indication for weakness ahead. wait for retracement for short. supply zone 4275 & 4320. stop loss few pips above key reversal bar i.e 4340, target 4120.
Resistance appears to have held and now to electionsIf 198 days is the approximately length of Cycle Wave A (as is the current expectation), the following timelines could be true:
Supercycle 2 could be ~ 813 days (final bottom is March 2025)
A is ~ 25% of the overall wave it resides
Cycle A would be ~ 198 days
INSIDE CYCLE WAVE A
1 is ~20% of the overall wave it resides:
This would make Primary 1 ~ 40 days
Primary 1 was actually 35 days long
2 is ~9% of the overall wave it resides:
This would make Primary 2 ~ 18 days
Primary 2 was actually 23 days long
3 is ~38% of the overall wave it resides:
This would make Primary 3 ~ 75 days
Primary 3 was actually 56 days long
4 is ~17% of the overall wave it resides:
This would make Primary 4 ~ 34 days
Primary 4 was actually 40 days long
5 is ~23% of the overall wave it resides:
This would make Primary 5 ~ 45 days
There is certainly some give and take as these median percentages of primary waves add up beyond 100% (107%). Some waves were longer and others under as well.
I drew a resistance line based on the beginning of Cycle wave 2 on January 4 and the next highest peak where Primary wave 2 ended. IF Primary 4 has indeed ended, it just missed this resistance line. A support line was drawn similarly based on the first major low since the January top. This first low was the end of Intermediate wave 3 in Primary wave 1 and the second low was the end of Primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 briefly dropped below this line 3 times, however, I am maintaining it as the source of a potential bottom.
I am working on something new by plotting the most agreed end dates based on my computer models instead of the top 1 or 2. The most agreement has Primary wave 5 lasting 28 or 40 days (8 models each).
I have additionally cross-hatched Fibonacci levels and percent extensions for wave 5 to potentially end. The first quartile extension 112.36%, median extension is 135.09%, and the third quartile is 204%. Based on all of these dates and cross-hatch points, I do not expect a low beyond 3136 or the bottom occurring after December 8.
My comfort target bottom would likely occur on or before election day likely around 3300. We shall see what happens.
One more flush will setup a good buyIm looking for a test of 4200 to buy or short below 4267.50SPX at the close.
VIX is out of its wedge and Monday can be a good gap down again if we close below 4200
Very important level is 4267.50 on the closing level today!
SPX flagging, there is a good setup for a good size gap down SPX flagging, there is a good setup for a good size gap down tomorrow.
Again has to gap down below 4255-57SPX to mark the top being in place (reference to March topping pattern)
If we gap down to 4189-4207SPX (the bottom of the channel) and hold it early from the open, then I will go long for a move up into the close.
If this is what will play out, then we should re-test 4308.50-23 on Monday with a gap up and crap.
So must watch number for tomorrow is 4189-4207. Must gap down below 4255 to have this setup more probable!
Some good setups are coming, just need to be patient.
Maj resistance is at 4308.5SPX on closing level.
SPX needs a Gap Down below 4255-57 tomorrow...Quick update.
The price needs to gap down tomorrow below 4255-57 to confirm the top being in place.
Usually this type of the move trap bulls for long, so as long as we gap down hard tomorrow, I can mark the top being in.
There is still a room to squeeze to 4330-34, but Im not really playing it unless I see a good setup.
If we gap up tomorrow, will have to revisit my charts.
Tomorrow should continue today's day, we had a reversal to downside and if this is real we should see a low on the 22nd-23rd, small bounce 23-24th and last low or higher low on the 25-26th
24th is a panic cycle day! Mark it on your calendar
Numbers to watch tomorrow:
- Maj resistance is the same - 4308.50 (on closing level)
- First main support is at 4255-57
- 4220 and next is at 4175
- Ideal target of this move is at 4125-46
Ideally we should see something similar of a move from EOM Mar high. You can revisit a gap down below 4520, which was retested and never seen since after.
Tomorrow's move should be a start of the first move down, fits with cycle lows into 22-23rd or 25-26th, then a rally into Labour Day high/lower high.
The week of Sep 5th is a panic cycle week, so a gap down from there is expected to trap all the bulls, especially after staying long over the long weekend.
Have a good night
