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Spx500short

Be prepared for large sell off of $SPX around 4350 levelThe moving average 300 is an indicator of trends for the S&P 500, and prices often tumble to it during bull market rallies or bounce to it in bear market rallies. Currently, $SPX is making a push towards the moving average 300, which is currently‘ at 4350.34. At this level, the volume histogram indicator across a 200 day timeframe and 500 day timeframe shows that there was historically a very high volume executed, which indicates that this may be a critical point for the market, and lots of volume may happen when it is reached. Given that US markets are now in a recession, as dictated by two quarters of negative GDP growth, the war is still ongoing, and inflation rates are still high, I'd personally guess that the current rally is a bull market trap, which will reach the MA 300 then experience large volume and reverse downwards. Comparing the current situation to two crashes, 2008 and 2020, I'd say that the state of the market is more similar to 2008, where prices came close to the ma 300 then crashed, instead of 2020, where the stock market rallied strongly after crossing over the moving average 300. This is because, in 2020, the rally after the crash was largely fueled by the federal reserve's quantitative easing and asset buying, whereas now in 2022, the federal reserve's actions are on the opposite end, with "quantitative tightening" and rate hikes.
SP:SPXShort
by spiritualhealer117
2
Resistance appears to have held and now to electionsIf 198 days is the approximately length of Cycle Wave A (as is the current expectation), the following timelines could be true: Supercycle 2 could be ~ 813 days (final bottom is March 2025) A is ~ 25% of the overall wave it resides Cycle A would be ~ 198 days INSIDE CYCLE WAVE A 1 is ~20% of the overall wave it resides: This would make Primary 1 ~ 40 days Primary 1 was actually 35 days long 2 is ~9% of the overall wave it resides: This would make Primary 2 ~ 18 days Primary 2 was actually 23 days long 3 is ~38% of the overall wave it resides: This would make Primary 3 ~ 75 days Primary 3 was actually 56 days long 4 is ~17% of the overall wave it resides: This would make Primary 4 ~ 34 days Primary 4 was actually 40 days long 5 is ~23% of the overall wave it resides: This would make Primary 5 ~ 45 days There is certainly some give and take as these median percentages of primary waves add up beyond 100% (107%). Some waves were longer and others under as well. I drew a resistance line based on the beginning of Cycle wave 2 on January 4 and the next highest peak where Primary wave 2 ended. IF Primary 4 has indeed ended, it just missed this resistance line. A support line was drawn similarly based on the first major low since the January top. This first low was the end of Intermediate wave 3 in Primary wave 1 and the second low was the end of Primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 briefly dropped below this line 3 times, however, I am maintaining it as the source of a potential bottom. I am working on something new by plotting the most agreed end dates based on my computer models instead of the top 1 or 2. The most agreement has Primary wave 5 lasting 28 or 40 days (8 models each). I have additionally cross-hatched Fibonacci levels and percent extensions for wave 5 to potentially end. The first quartile extension 112.36%, median extension is 135.09%, and the third quartile is 204%. Based on all of these dates and cross-hatch points, I do not expect a low beyond 3136 or the bottom occurring after December 8. My comfort target bottom would likely occur on or before election day likely around 3300. We shall see what happens.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
SPX flagging, there is a good setup for a good size gap down SPX flagging, there is a good setup for a good size gap down tomorrow. Again has to gap down below 4255-57SPX to mark the top being in place (reference to March topping pattern) If we gap down to 4189-4207SPX (the bottom of the channel) and hold it early from the open, then I will go long for a move up into the close. If this is what will play out, then we should re-test 4308.50-23 on Monday with a gap up and crap. So must watch number for tomorrow is 4189-4207. Must gap down below 4255 to have this setup more probable! Some good setups are coming, just need to be patient. Maj resistance is at 4308.5SPX on closing level.
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
26
SPX needs a Gap Down below 4255-57 tomorrow...Quick update. The price needs to gap down tomorrow below 4255-57 to confirm the top being in place. Usually this type of the move trap bulls for long, so as long as we gap down hard tomorrow, I can mark the top being in. There is still a room to squeeze to 4330-34, but Im not really playing it unless I see a good setup. If we gap up tomorrow, will have to revisit my charts. Tomorrow should continue today's day, we had a reversal to downside and if this is real we should see a low on the 22nd-23rd, small bounce 23-24th and last low or higher low on the 25-26th 24th is a panic cycle day! Mark it on your calendar Numbers to watch tomorrow: - Maj resistance is the same - 4308.50 (on closing level) - First main support is at 4255-57 - 4220 and next is at 4175 - Ideal target of this move is at 4125-46 Ideally we should see something similar of a move from EOM Mar high. You can revisit a gap down below 4520, which was retested and never seen since after. Tomorrow's move should be a start of the first move down, fits with cycle lows into 22-23rd or 25-26th, then a rally into Labour Day high/lower high. The week of Sep 5th is a panic cycle week, so a gap down from there is expected to trap all the bulls, especially after staying long over the long weekend. Have a good night
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
2
SPX Aug 17th updateExpected a high being hit today, we got it. Expected a close below 4308.5SPX, we got it. Expected a red close, got it only on NASDAQ and Small Caps. As long as we stay below 4340SPX we should see lower is my next expectation. VIX (see my update earlier) has a clear ISH pattern. Main support is 4177SPX Tomorrow must watch numbers are - 4285 and especially 75, failure of holding the last number can be a good sign of the local top, need much lower to mark the maj top! - Resistance is the same 4308.50 on the closing level. - Upper target zone is around 4330-34SPX in case it wants to tag it, Im not playing it and will be looking for a short setup instead. I expect this to dive down to 4150+- SPX zone by the 24th-26th and one more push to lower low /double top, or if broken above - 4425+ sometime early Sep. Not favouring the second scenario, but can be a case for the larger B wave top in Jan. Im not in the camp of new ATH's and the lows being in, I dont change my count to fit the price or put many counts to be right regardless. If Im wrong at some point (everyone makes mistakes), I will admit and only then change my view. We are not even close to have that view changed at this point. Also want to bring the attention to Sep and hope many will make a note of this warning - there is a chance we could crash that month and my charts do reflect that. Will it be serious or not as much, I have no idea, but I see some serious signs of something happening that month. You have been warned. Have a good night
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
17
SPX hit 4308.50 target!Ideal target has been met! Watch to close below 4308.50, ideally we close red, tomorrow will be a bigger sell off with the bounce on the 18th. The target zone is at 4300-33, it can stretch into 20s, I will short it there, or short if we close below 4308.50 Timing should be right as per my last night update. I will post a zoomed out chart after the close with the expected pathway into Oct low. One thing to mention is I wont be holding any longs after end of this month! Sep can produce a good crash, you've been warned!
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
2
SPX gap fill is at 4300.16, maj resisatcne is at 4308.50Its a turning day tomorrow, the 16th, expect it to be an intraday or a closing high. Super close to the Gap Fill at 4300.16 and my main target/resisatnce at 4308.50. Had that number since Jun, didnt expect it to get hit mid of Aug but EOM or first days of Sep. Timing for the low is on Aug 26th and I expect 4010-30 to hold! Might get to 4050-60SPX only, will calculate target when I see that we topped. 4200 will have to be lost at min, today this number could rise. This Fri Max Pain is at 405 SPY, something to watch! So I was thinking if we see a low on the 26th, then there is a high chance we stretch into the Sep OPEX for bear max pain and suck every bull in at 4425-35SPX. That was my ideal target before we saw lower in June, now its secondary target.
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
13
SPX is in the target and maj resistance zoneNothing much to add since my most recent updates. The price is in the target zone I had for a while now. Was expecting a good size pullback, never happened. Im still in some trapped ES short, as well as RTY from Fri close and some SPY puts. We got right into the Yellow dotted line I had for months now, its the main resistance line and right in our 4308SPX target zone. Maj daily resistance is at 4308-35SPX Maj support (and I expect it to hold) is at 4000-08SPX Might stretch into 4930-50, but low 4k has higher chance in holding on the upcoming pullback. As noted on the RTY chart, there is a chance we wont tag 200MA, too many are looking for one to get hit. We should get some sort of pullback next week, how deep it will be, I dont know, but it can be quite fast. Maj turn dates are the 16th and week of 29th, Im assuming that week will mark the high, might be lower high. We have 9 unfilled gaps since Jun low, I expect those to get filled by Oct low. Im expecting a double bottom or a marginal lower hit in to below 3450SPX zone before a good size rally into EOY. Sep comes up as a panic month, I expect a good size reversal that month and it can get quite ugly in Oct. I see some serious market movers Sep/Oct time, might stretch into Nov Midterm elections. Those in power will do everything to rig it, so expect more international instability as well as something serious in the states. Interesting and very dangerous times we live in. Very important to gap down tomorrow to mark temp high. Expect a counter trend next 2 weeks into week of 29th. 2 scenarios Im watching: - top in main target zone of 4308-35SPX - top at 4425SPX in case it wants to extend into mid of Sep
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
6
V-Shaped Recovery......is highly unlikely. The chart above shows the entire price history of the S&P 500. Each candle is a 6-month period. The channel that you see is a regression channel. It shows how far above or below the mean the stock market is at a given time. At the close of 2021, the stock market hit the 2-sigma deviation from the mean. This is about as over-extended as it ever has been. The Federal Reserve has been pumping the stock market up for decades with lower and lower interest rates and quantitative easing: Looking at this 6-month chart, if it were a daily chart, how would you trade it? The yearly chart is no less concerning. Here's the yearly chart of the S&P 500: I am not posting this to incite trading based on fear. Never buy or sell based on emotions. I still hold plenty of long positions myself since yearly charts are not to be traded on. These charts, however, call for extreme defensive plays. Have your stop losses in place. Trade strategically and consider how much risk you're taking for how much reward. It's highly unlikely that we're going to have a V-shaped recovery in the stock market and that we will casually blast through new all-time highs for years. You can read my post below about the extreme yield curve inversion that has already occurred, and my post on why I believe the charts are saying a significant recession is coming.
SP:SPX
by SpyMasterTrades
23
S&P500/ SPX500 ShortThe S&P500 Index made a massive recovery over the last week and for that reason most traders are bullish bias, we however have reason to belive that it may be time to short the S&P500.We have a complete bearish gartley that has its point D resting on our resistance, this gives us a strong bearish signal confirming our Bearish Gartley harmonic pattern. We will now sell the S&P500 to take profit at point B and start trailing profits beyond our point B. Disclaimer NASDAQ Guru offers general trading signals that does not take into consideration your own trading experiences, personal objectives and goals, financial means, or risk tolerance.
TVC:SPXShort
by Mezzoforte_Privilege
1
SPX quick updateNothing much I can add, but few things: Lots of evidence of the market hitting the ceiling - SPX is at 61.8 fib retracement, very important to watch - Added a trendline off Feb 2020 and Sep 2020 highs, we are right at the resistance zone. - Main target (4308-30) is getting close to hit with no 4th wave pullback but relentless grind in a C wave up. - Weekly bullish reversal is only at 4385SPX on closing level, we are not going to hit it today. - Daily is at 4308, same as the main target, also a gap to fill. - MACD, RSI, Stoch etc are all in overbought territory, can last for several days more to hit that 4308+ target - We have 9 gaps on the downside left, I expect those to get fill in Sep/Oct - VIX is giving another long signal and sell to equities, need to watch the close below the Bollinger band to confirm Im only day trading and have few ES under the water I m holding. Will be short over the weekend with NQ, especially if we reverse into the close and close below the highs. My internet is still very bad and technicians are only coming tomorrow end of the day, cant trade much in this environment but using my cell data for small trades
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
4
SPX back into the broken channel, fakeout was expected since my SPX back into the broken channel, fakeout was expected since my last night update. ES has the same look. Im having internet issues all day, barely traded few times. Might internet problem can last up to end of Saturday, might be an issue posting till then. I will try my best to post when I have internet working Daily S1 is at 4383.52, we got a bit shy of that target. 4h chart is showing a good negative divergence Tomorrow should follow throw if we got the fakeout or break above the trendline again. If second we will see 4308+ by Aug 16th. Im still looking for the low on the 16th, tomorrow will be a tell if we got an inversion or we are good to go for the low
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
4