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Spx500short

S&P 500 Index (8H) / Elliott Wave Update / Tricky S&PAs a reminder, there is not overlap between green submicro W2 & W4 on the cash index which is the one that matters. There is no alternation as both structures are truncated ZZs (!). Remember that a guideline is NOT a rule. And yes, counting waves on the indices has been (very) tricky. Please like and share if you appreciate this market update. We are certified Elliotticians and publish Elliott Wave counts for indices, stocks & ETFs, cryptos, and commodities, in weekly, daily and 4-hour timeframes. Cryptos are updated every day of the week and on Saturday, if necessary. Traditional assets are updated on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, and if necessary, on Friday. Elliott wave & Fibonacci labelling: Common path in white, bullish count in green, bearih count in red.
TVC:SPX
by TradingSurfers
4
US Market Technicals Ahead (8 Feb – 12 Feb 2021)All three US major averages finished the week in the green, with each posting its best week since November 2020 as fears of the short-squeeze in a handful of stocks leading to broader market contagion subsided. Investors will be focusing on earnings and the prospects for a hefty new coronavirus relief package in the week ahead. Markets will also be watching the latest consumer price inflation numbers on Wednesday amid expectations for an uptick as the economic backdrop improves and the vaccine roll-out gains momentum. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) kicks off the month of Feburary with a weekly gain of +5.03%, the best week of the index since November 2020. This rally not only fully recovered the correction from the initial week, but it also established a new all time high for $SPX at 3,895 level. Additionally, $SPX is now back above its 20DMA, along with the consolidated Trend Channel highlighted last week. At the current junction, the week’s rally of $SPX have exhibited a Bearish Divergence pattern; as the daily rally of $SPX is accompanied with a volume exhaustion. The first signs of weakness in this rally will require a re-test of all-time high resistance turned support at 3,870. 1. Earnings Better-than-expected corporate results so far in the fourth quarter have driven up analysts’ expectations, and S&P 500 ($SPX) companies are on track to post earnings growth for the period instead of a decline as initially expected. Upcoming U.S. reports in the week ahead include Cisco Systems ($CSCO), Twitter ($TWTR), General Motors ($GM), Pepsi ($PEP), Coca-Cola ($KO), AstraZeneca ($AZN) and Walt Disney ($DIS). Upbeat earnings along with stimulus talks and progress on the vaccine rollout boosted equities last week, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq recording their largest weekly percentage gains since the U.S. elections in early November. Upbeat fourth-quarter results would bolster expectations for a strong rebound in earnings in 2021 and help to ease investor worries that valuations are overstretched. 2. Stimulus U.S. President Joe Biden’s push for his $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package gained momentum on Friday after the U.S. Senate narrowly approved a budget blueprint allowing Democrats to push the legislation through Congress in coming weeks with or without Republican support. Republicans have proposed a $600 billion aid package, less than a third the size of the Democratic plan. Congressional committees are set to start drawing up legislation this week and Speaker Nancy Pelosi has predicted the final legislation could pass Congress before March 15, when special unemployment benefits that were added during the pandemic expire. Data on Friday showing a smaller-than-expected rebound in the U.S. labor market in January underscored the need for more stimulus to bolster the economy. 3. Inflation data Market watchers will be paying close attention to Wednesday’s CPI data amid growing expectations that an uptick in inflation could be larger and longer lasting than the Federal Reserve is currently anticipating. U.S. Treasury investors are betting on rising inflation as the U.S. economy returns to more normal levels in the second half of this year, after contracting at its deepest pace since World War Two in 2020. The prospect of a new coronavirus relief package is adding to inflation expectations. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to speak about the labor market on Wednesday at a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of New York. Thursday’s figures on initial jobless claims will also be in focus.
UShort
by jfsrevg
1
S&P 500 Short SetupS&P 500 Short Setup Entry: $3,864.4 TP & RR: $3,750.7 (2.22) Stop Loss: $3,915.7 REASONS FOR THE TRADE Not much to discuss here, aside from the fact that we are looking to open a short position at an established resistance level. This is one of those trades that it's just too obvious, so I believe a lot of traders will be stacking orders there. When/If our position gets filled, we will be monitoring it and if volume continues to increase or we pierce that level convincingly, we may close the trade prematurely and potentially open a long trade.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Quant_
$SPY Correction time, how deep do we go?My observation, when Price falls through 1W 12ma (pink ma), it's extremely likely Price will hit 50ma (blue ma) or get within 2% of it. I went short 1/26/21. Might've nailed shorting the ATH, but it's very possible we bounce off 1W 12ma and make a slightly ATH and then dump hard just we've done in 2018/2019. I'm not closing until I see some fear, might even just skip the 1st buy target. I have to think about it. This could all take 1-2 months. But with so many peoples eyes on the news and on stocks becasue of GME, ATC, TSLA... and so many new traders, so much euphoria in the market, this seems like the top. Just like bitcoin in 2017. The general population is always too late. If we're going down hard in 2021 for whatever reason (there's always something to blame) this is a solid game plan that's hard to mess up. I haven't decided how much to buy and how much short to cover at each target but I'll do the math later. Buy Targets: 1) 3D 50ma = ~3500 blue horizontal 9% Drop 2a) 3D 100ma = 3300 bright green 14% Drop 2b) 1W 100ma = 3200 dark green 18% Drop (Nearly guaranteed a solid bounce here) 3) 1W 200ma = 2900 Unless things go fucking crazy, this should be the last one. Orange line 24% Drop 2-3x leveraged Tech ETF like QLD or TQQQ. ------------- 4) 2200 - 2400 area would scare the shit out of a lot of people, but I would go all in here, 2-3x leveraged Tech ETF like QLD or TQQQ. Likely won't get here.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by teckno05
1
S&P 500 Ascending Channel - Short SetupSPX500 Short Trade Entry: $3,866.6 TP & RR: $3,840.5 (1.13) Stop Loss: $3,889.7 REASONS FOR THE TRADE Straight off the bat, you notice two things here - ascending channel and opening a position against the trend with what I consider a bad Risk:Reward Ratio of just over 1. However, I believe that price can form a double top with bearish divergence, retrace back to the lower trendline and then continue up. Of course, we will be looking to open a long order somewhere at the lower trendline. Stop Loss is set pretty high in case there's a fakeout. However, we will close the position if there's a convincing close above the recent high.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Quant_
US Market Technicals Ahead (25 Jan – 29 Jan 2021)As we enter into the last market week of January, investors will have lots to focus on in the week ahead with a series of major U.S. companies including Apple ($AAPL), Microsoft ($MSFT), Facebook ($FB), and Tesla ($TSLA) all reporting earnings. The Federal Reserve is to meet, and markets will get their first look at fresh GDP growth figures in the final quarter of pandemic ravaged 2020. Elsewhere, the IMF is set to release its World Economic Outlook and growth figures from Germany, Mexico and Hong Kong will also be in the spotlight. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) recovered from the earlier week of losses, posting a weekly gain of +2.23%. The rebound have reaffirm the significance of 20DMA supporting the rally since 4th November 2020. The significance of 20DMA towards $SPX daily current price action is also observed in the various rebound highlighted in the chart (arrow), particularly thrice in December 2020 and once in January 2021. As $SPX continues to creep up with a higher high at every bi-weekly swing, it is observed that volume is diminishing at every of this top establishment – essentially plotting out a technical bearish divergence between price rally with volume decline. At the current junction, the $SPX remains firmly within the congested 3 months trend channel. The immediate support to watch for any further weaknesses is at 3,660 level. This level would see $SPX breaking down the highlighted trend channel convincingly, along with the first break of a minor classical support established on the opening week of 2021. 1. Earnings heat up After leading markets higher for most of 2020, tech stocks took a backseat late last year amid a rotation into value stocks which were boosted by hopes for the economic recovery promised by vaccines. That shift has stalled in recent days as investors weighed lackluster outlooks from big banks and a blockbuster quarterly report from Netflix ($NFLX) that saw shares climb 17%. Microsoft ($MSFT) reports after the close on Tuesday, followed by Apple ($AAPL), Facebook ($FB) and Tesla ($TSLA), which recently joined the S&P 500, a day later. The results could push the combined market cap of the FAANGs – Facebook, Amazon ($AMZN), Apple, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet ($GOOGL)- back above their all-time peak of $6.16 trillion. 2. Fed meeting Fed policymakers will hold their first meeting since Democrats last week took control of the Senate, which has increased the likelihood that new President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package could be passed. The Fed is not expected to make any policy changes at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday and is likely to reiterate that the economy is still far from its goals of full employment and 2% inflation. There is some speculation among investors that increased government spending to boost the recovery could prompt the Fed to begin tapering its massive bond-buying program as soon as the end of this year. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this month that “now is not the time to be talking about exit.” 3. U.S. GDP data Market participants will get their first look at how the U.S. economy performed in the fourth quarter from Thursday’s figures on gross domestic product after already weaker consumer spending numbers and falling employment in December. After a record 33.4% annualized rate of growth in the third quarter, economists are forecasting growth of 4.0% in the final three months of the year. The economy is expected to have contracted by 3.5% for the full year. The economic calendar also features data on durable goods orders on Wednesday, initial jobless claims numbers on Thursday and personal income and spending data on Friday.
ULong
by jfsrevg
I'm hearing scary things - SELLI am short the entire market. What I was just told by a high level politician is earth shattering and biblical. The USA Corp. is bankrupt. The previous president signed a new Declaration of Independence on July 4, 2020. Check his wife's Twitter posts. The United States is now running under the original 1776 Constitution and everything that has happened by the new administration is null/void including the inauguration. I was told everything Congress and the Senate are doing and have done, is null/void because it was done under the old USA, Corp. I was also told, due to the election fraud, and the illegal certification of a fraudulent election by the previous V.P., it is treason. I was told to read the 14th Amendment. I was also told the military is running the United States, and not who you think. As for Washington D.C., I am being told at least 2000 troops will remain and arrests will start taking place soon. I am told this is the biggest military sting operation in the history of the United States and even the World. I was told big news is forthcoming. Moving into cash. SHORT!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by HotCharts
5
S&P 500 Reaches a Level of Resistance - Short TradeSPX500 - Short Position(s) Entries: $3,784.4 / 3826.8 TP & RR: $3,728.8 (3.29 / 4.12) Stop Loss Levels: $3,801.3 / $3,850.6 REASONS FOR THE TRADE I think it's time for the SPX500 to take a break from this bull run. As such, I am expecting that price will reach either of the two levels that I would like to short. The Risk:Reward Ratio is favorable and the Stop Loss is just above the invalidation levels. Now, you may be wondering why the SL of the first short is not placed higher, somewhere around the second order's SL. The problem is in the Risk:Rewards Ratio. If I am to do that, I will need to adjust my position size to account for the bigger gap between entry and SL. Also, the RRR of 3.29 will fall down to 0.84. So, even if I short from the first level and the setup proves to be valid, I will increase my capital by less than 1%, compared to over 3% if I keep the trade as it is. Even if the first setup is invalidated, and we open a profitable short on the second level, the profit of 4.12R will compensate for the 1R loss and we will be at a profit of 3.12R. Of course, it would be unpleasant to lose 1% of the account, but that's just how trading works. You either take the risk or you lose the chance. On a side note, since it's Monday, I am not placing those as limit orders, rather I have set alerts at the levels. When we reach them I will look at the volume, the 1h candle close, and will update the idea. We don't want to blindly place orders and hope for the best.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Quant_
2
How much room does the tech market have to the upside? SPXIs it possible that the tech market is now in a second bubble? Although the valuation of the top 5-6 companies is accurate, what would the rest of the 455 stocks of the SPX are signalling on what is going to happen next? In my view, I believe that a few signs on the chart of the SPX does seem to indicate that a correction is due. There is a current bearish divergence looking both the the monthly and weekly volumes in relation to the price. The MACD is highly elevated too and it seems we are not seeing a record level that we have not ever seen before. Of course, the correction back in March is a contributing factor on seeing such elevated levels but they cannot simply go on like that for too long now. Despite a vaccine being available and as of tomorrow starting to be used in the UK targeting around 2 million people, the economic prospects and worries seem to be more elevated both in Europe and the US. The US market has been flooded by vast amounts of money printed by the FED which were mostly use to purchase bonds and stocks, increasing it's balance sheet. The argument of a high inflation is real and of course is something to take serious but personally I believe that deflation will be the first real threat. Every major crisis in the past had started with a deflationary period and the pandemic has set the stage perfectly for that. It is very possible to see some high volatility in the month of December but I believe that end of February mid March would be the the more sensitive times one should watch the market. The levels to watch would be the 21EMA on the Weekly chart as , breaking that level, would be a first sign of a potential reversal. I will update this idea with more charts as we go along but for now I just wish to publish the current state and see if we will get any signals before the end of 2021.
SP:SPXShort
by cbistriceanu