SPX BearishBased on the fundamentals, we believe the stimulus has already been priced into the markets. Technically, we are seeing lower highs and lower lows. Both the technicals and fundamentals give us reason to be short SPX (only for short term). If you have heard the famous saying, "buy the rumor, sell the news" then you can tell that this may be one of those instances. The stimulus news came after Biden alerted the country that stimulus checks will be sent out. That is when assets started seeing some volatility and we believe the volatility will increase as the week progresses, mainly to the downside. Adding hedges such as puts may be a great decision in times of uncertainty. We believe the uptrend will resume when SPX hits either one of the bottom targets. Trade safe. - HH
Spx500short
It doesn't get much more obvious than this.Chances are good that the charts for AMEX:SPY and TVC:SPX will continue to print repeated patterns. They have been doing so for an entire year, so I don't expect them to suddenly change trajectory. I honestly expect the market to crash within a week--if not tomorrow--judging by this fractal. And although it is not shown in this post, there is also major bearish divergence on the RSI for the weekly and monthly charts and bullish divergence on the same timeframes for the VIX . It sure will be interesting to watch. Good luck to all.
S&P 500 corrective wave (A) pullback, New Butterfly A move back into 3900 would suggest the S&P is unfolding into a corrective wave (A) pullback. Moving away from the analysis that wave (5) still has room to go, we are looking to establish a Put Debit Butterfly 3930/3750/3735 expiring March 19th 2021 to capitalize on this short term pullback while remain long on our portfolio for longer term upside exposure.
Short term perspective: Will SPX continue its fall?Markets have been driven by interest rate move in recent days. Expecting SPX to continue its weakness over the next few days.
But could there be bottom-fishing? I think it is likely.
Looking for price to retrace down to 3830 levels before rebounding back to 3900.
Let me know your thoughts.
SPX500 price movement target are right ?"Trading is not gambling
It is the games against the system"
You have any hesitation above the chart
Have any glitch on the BATBTC days chart ? i hope traders can properly indentify my charting glitch !
SPX500 expectation is rights?
SPX500 mine own perspective so what's your opinion on the SPX500 price movement please comment in the below section .
SPX500 could move UP! Hey tradomaniacs,
Looking at SPX500 we can see a good rally after the expected fakeout#5 from yesterday 👉
As you can see we are currently re-testing the previous trendline of the entire weird and volatile correction.
If this level holds market could continue with its previous breakout and start a new rally!
If not.. SHORT IT ;-D
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
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DOGE is just another PnD.Like it or not , but Doge have no intrinsic value or good fundamentals (crypto style : like limited supply at least at btc) and just another Pump and Dump scheme.
This is the cherry on the cake that still was not eaten like $GME, $AMC, $TLRY and bunch of other penny stocks.
All of this remind me a bit of 1929, 2000 when retail fomo is so insane , that they long everything and shoe shining average Joe gives you trading advice about markets. Why this is happening? Probably corona virus and money printing.
Will it last long? No. Frenzy will be over right when there will be no more lockdowns(will be frontrunned probably few months in advance. I'd say spring/summer 2021 most likely), and all this new tik-tok traders will end up devastated and bankrupt. Bankers will force gov to hike rates on dxy and collect that credits back forcing people into another finance depression.
Yes , it's a bubble burst scenario and it will happen sooner or later. Ponzies ain't lasts forever and you're all know it.
Short MarketThe market has reached its all time high creating a new higher high which can be treated as a resistance @3941.1 for now. The RSI suggests that the market has been heavily overbought on 30m chart and a recorrection is to be expected.
On 4hr chart the support level 3896.8 is constantly being tested and looks like the market will test this level one more time before making yet another bullish move. If bears break the supp levels expect the market to test zone @3877.7 to 3868.5 supp level.
Else the long move is to be assumed go up to 4017.0.
Supp levels:
3918.0
3894.5 --> getting weak
3877.7 to 3868.5 --> strong supp zone
SP500 & Channel.As you can see on these charts-the price is once again beating the channel resistance (purple dotted line). Perhaps the price will have to adjust to the level of $1950, equal to the Fibonacci correction of 0.618%. There is another more positive and desirable scenario for everyone - if there is very good news, the price will be able to gain a foothold above the purple line and go even higher-up to the pink dotted line.
S&P 500 Index (8H) / Elliott Wave Update / Tricky S&PAs a reminder, there is not overlap between green submicro W2 & W4 on the cash index which is the one that matters. There is no alternation as both structures are truncated ZZs (!). Remember that a guideline is NOT a rule. And yes, counting waves on the indices has been (very) tricky.
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US Market Technicals Ahead (8 Feb – 12 Feb 2021)All three US major averages finished the week in the green, with each posting its best week since November 2020 as fears of the short-squeeze in a handful of stocks leading to broader market contagion subsided. Investors will be focusing on earnings and the prospects for a hefty new coronavirus relief package in the week ahead. Markets will also be watching the latest consumer price inflation numbers on Wednesday amid expectations for an uptick as the economic backdrop improves and the vaccine roll-out gains momentum.
Here’s what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) kicks off the month of Feburary with a weekly gain of +5.03%, the best week of the index since November 2020. This rally not only fully recovered the correction from the initial week, but it also established a new all time high for $SPX at 3,895 level. Additionally, $SPX is now back above its 20DMA, along with the consolidated Trend Channel highlighted last week.
At the current junction, the week’s rally of $SPX have exhibited a Bearish Divergence pattern; as the daily rally of $SPX is accompanied with a volume exhaustion. The first signs of weakness in this rally will require a re-test of all-time high resistance turned support at 3,870.
1. Earnings
Better-than-expected corporate results so far in the fourth quarter have driven up analysts’ expectations, and S&P 500 ($SPX) companies are on track to post earnings growth for the period instead of a decline as initially expected. Upcoming U.S. reports in the week ahead include Cisco Systems ($CSCO), Twitter ($TWTR), General Motors ($GM), Pepsi ($PEP), Coca-Cola ($KO), AstraZeneca ($AZN) and Walt Disney ($DIS).
Upbeat earnings along with stimulus talks and progress on the vaccine rollout boosted equities last week, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq recording their largest weekly percentage gains since the U.S. elections in early November.
Upbeat fourth-quarter results would bolster expectations for a strong rebound in earnings in 2021 and help to ease investor worries that valuations are overstretched.
2. Stimulus
U.S. President Joe Biden’s push for his $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package gained momentum on Friday after the U.S. Senate narrowly approved a budget blueprint allowing Democrats to push the legislation through Congress in coming weeks with or without Republican support.
Republicans have proposed a $600 billion aid package, less than a third the size of the Democratic plan.
Congressional committees are set to start drawing up legislation this week and Speaker Nancy Pelosi has predicted the final legislation could pass Congress before March 15, when special unemployment benefits that were added during the pandemic expire.
Data on Friday showing a smaller-than-expected rebound in the U.S. labor market in January underscored the need for more stimulus to bolster the economy.
3. Inflation data
Market watchers will be paying close attention to Wednesday’s CPI data amid growing expectations that an uptick in inflation could be larger and longer lasting than the Federal Reserve is currently anticipating.
U.S. Treasury investors are betting on rising inflation as the U.S. economy returns to more normal levels in the second half of this year, after contracting at its deepest pace since World War Two in 2020.
The prospect of a new coronavirus relief package is adding to inflation expectations.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to speak about the labor market on Wednesday at a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of New York. Thursday’s figures on initial jobless claims will also be in focus.
S&P500 Short 2/3/2021Excuse the messy chart, it looks nicer on Lower Time frames. Anyways, here we have a distribution occurring at a very precise & refined entry. With other confluence & confirmations, I felt comfortable taking this trade. I targeted partials at Liquidity/EQL's, I was targeting lower prices but I closed as I'm more than happy with this trade already.
S&P 500 Short SetupS&P 500 Short Setup
Entry: $3,864.4
TP & RR: $3,750.7 (2.22)
Stop Loss: $3,915.7
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Not much to discuss here, aside from the fact that we are looking to open a short position at an established resistance level. This is one of those trades that it's just too obvious, so I believe a lot of traders will be stacking orders there. When/If our position gets filled, we will be monitoring it and if volume continues to increase or we pierce that level convincingly, we may close the trade prematurely and potentially open a long trade.
SPX Correction to 3350-3300At the very least, some hot air is about to come out of the markets.. All of the bearish technical signs are there now, just need a nice push lower on the ES futures Sunday evening... Once everyone starts calling for a crash at the expected target range, its likely time to start looking for long opps..