Spx500short
DOGE is just another PnD.Like it or not , but Doge have no intrinsic value or good fundamentals (crypto style : like limited supply at least at btc) and just another Pump and Dump scheme.
This is the cherry on the cake that still was not eaten like $GME, $AMC, $TLRY and bunch of other penny stocks.
All of this remind me a bit of 1929, 2000 when retail fomo is so insane , that they long everything and shoe shining average Joe gives you trading advice about markets. Why this is happening? Probably corona virus and money printing.
Will it last long? No. Frenzy will be over right when there will be no more lockdowns(will be frontrunned probably few months in advance. I'd say spring/summer 2021 most likely), and all this new tik-tok traders will end up devastated and bankrupt. Bankers will force gov to hike rates on dxy and collect that credits back forcing people into another finance depression.
Yes , it's a bubble burst scenario and it will happen sooner or later. Ponzies ain't lasts forever and you're all know it.
Short MarketThe market has reached its all time high creating a new higher high which can be treated as a resistance @3941.1 for now. The RSI suggests that the market has been heavily overbought on 30m chart and a recorrection is to be expected.
On 4hr chart the support level 3896.8 is constantly being tested and looks like the market will test this level one more time before making yet another bullish move. If bears break the supp levels expect the market to test zone @3877.7 to 3868.5 supp level.
Else the long move is to be assumed go up to 4017.0.
Supp levels:
3918.0
3894.5 --> getting weak
3877.7 to 3868.5 --> strong supp zone
SP500 & Channel.As you can see on these charts-the price is once again beating the channel resistance (purple dotted line). Perhaps the price will have to adjust to the level of $1950, equal to the Fibonacci correction of 0.618%. There is another more positive and desirable scenario for everyone - if there is very good news, the price will be able to gain a foothold above the purple line and go even higher-up to the pink dotted line.
S&P 500 Index (8H) / Elliott Wave Update / Tricky S&PAs a reminder, there is not overlap between green submicro W2 & W4 on the cash index which is the one that matters. There is no alternation as both structures are truncated ZZs (!). Remember that a guideline is NOT a rule. And yes, counting waves on the indices has been (very) tricky.
Please like and share if you appreciate this market update.
We are certified Elliotticians and publish Elliott Wave counts for indices, stocks & ETFs, cryptos, and commodities, in weekly, daily and 4-hour timeframes.
Cryptos are updated every day of the week and on Saturday, if necessary.
Traditional assets are updated on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, and if necessary, on Friday.
Elliott wave & Fibonacci labelling:
Common path in white, bullish count in green, bearih count in red.
US Market Technicals Ahead (8 Feb – 12 Feb 2021)All three US major averages finished the week in the green, with each posting its best week since November 2020 as fears of the short-squeeze in a handful of stocks leading to broader market contagion subsided. Investors will be focusing on earnings and the prospects for a hefty new coronavirus relief package in the week ahead. Markets will also be watching the latest consumer price inflation numbers on Wednesday amid expectations for an uptick as the economic backdrop improves and the vaccine roll-out gains momentum.
Here’s what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) kicks off the month of Feburary with a weekly gain of +5.03%, the best week of the index since November 2020. This rally not only fully recovered the correction from the initial week, but it also established a new all time high for $SPX at 3,895 level. Additionally, $SPX is now back above its 20DMA, along with the consolidated Trend Channel highlighted last week.
At the current junction, the week’s rally of $SPX have exhibited a Bearish Divergence pattern; as the daily rally of $SPX is accompanied with a volume exhaustion. The first signs of weakness in this rally will require a re-test of all-time high resistance turned support at 3,870.
1. Earnings
Better-than-expected corporate results so far in the fourth quarter have driven up analysts’ expectations, and S&P 500 ($SPX) companies are on track to post earnings growth for the period instead of a decline as initially expected. Upcoming U.S. reports in the week ahead include Cisco Systems ($CSCO), Twitter ($TWTR), General Motors ($GM), Pepsi ($PEP), Coca-Cola ($KO), AstraZeneca ($AZN) and Walt Disney ($DIS).
Upbeat earnings along with stimulus talks and progress on the vaccine rollout boosted equities last week, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq recording their largest weekly percentage gains since the U.S. elections in early November.
Upbeat fourth-quarter results would bolster expectations for a strong rebound in earnings in 2021 and help to ease investor worries that valuations are overstretched.
2. Stimulus
U.S. President Joe Biden’s push for his $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package gained momentum on Friday after the U.S. Senate narrowly approved a budget blueprint allowing Democrats to push the legislation through Congress in coming weeks with or without Republican support.
Republicans have proposed a $600 billion aid package, less than a third the size of the Democratic plan.
Congressional committees are set to start drawing up legislation this week and Speaker Nancy Pelosi has predicted the final legislation could pass Congress before March 15, when special unemployment benefits that were added during the pandemic expire.
Data on Friday showing a smaller-than-expected rebound in the U.S. labor market in January underscored the need for more stimulus to bolster the economy.
3. Inflation data
Market watchers will be paying close attention to Wednesday’s CPI data amid growing expectations that an uptick in inflation could be larger and longer lasting than the Federal Reserve is currently anticipating.
U.S. Treasury investors are betting on rising inflation as the U.S. economy returns to more normal levels in the second half of this year, after contracting at its deepest pace since World War Two in 2020.
The prospect of a new coronavirus relief package is adding to inflation expectations.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to speak about the labor market on Wednesday at a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of New York. Thursday’s figures on initial jobless claims will also be in focus.
S&P500 Short 2/3/2021Excuse the messy chart, it looks nicer on Lower Time frames. Anyways, here we have a distribution occurring at a very precise & refined entry. With other confluence & confirmations, I felt comfortable taking this trade. I targeted partials at Liquidity/EQL's, I was targeting lower prices but I closed as I'm more than happy with this trade already.
S&P 500 Short SetupS&P 500 Short Setup
Entry: $3,864.4
TP & RR: $3,750.7 (2.22)
Stop Loss: $3,915.7
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Not much to discuss here, aside from the fact that we are looking to open a short position at an established resistance level. This is one of those trades that it's just too obvious, so I believe a lot of traders will be stacking orders there. When/If our position gets filled, we will be monitoring it and if volume continues to increase or we pierce that level convincingly, we may close the trade prematurely and potentially open a long trade.
SPX Correction to 3350-3300At the very least, some hot air is about to come out of the markets.. All of the bearish technical signs are there now, just need a nice push lower on the ES futures Sunday evening... Once everyone starts calling for a crash at the expected target range, its likely time to start looking for long opps..
$SPY Correction time, how deep do we go?My observation, when Price falls through 1W 12ma (pink ma), it's extremely likely Price will hit 50ma (blue ma) or get within 2% of it.
I went short 1/26/21. Might've nailed shorting the ATH, but it's very possible we bounce off 1W 12ma and make a slightly ATH and then dump hard just we've done in 2018/2019. I'm not closing until I see some fear, might even just skip the 1st buy target. I have to think about it. This could all take 1-2 months. But with so many peoples eyes on the news and on stocks becasue of GME, ATC, TSLA... and so many new traders, so much euphoria in the market, this seems like the top. Just like bitcoin in 2017. The general population is always too late. If we're going down hard in 2021 for whatever reason (there's always something to blame) this is a solid game plan that's hard to mess up. I haven't decided how much to buy and how much short to cover at each target but I'll do the math later.
Buy Targets:
1) 3D 50ma = ~3500 blue horizontal 9% Drop
2a) 3D 100ma = 3300 bright green 14% Drop
2b) 1W 100ma = 3200 dark green 18% Drop (Nearly guaranteed a solid bounce here)
3) 1W 200ma = 2900 Unless things go fucking crazy, this should be the last one. Orange line 24% Drop 2-3x leveraged Tech ETF like QLD or TQQQ.
-------------
4) 2200 - 2400 area would scare the shit out of a lot of people, but I would go all in here, 2-3x leveraged Tech ETF like QLD or TQQQ.
Likely won't get here.
SPX500 quick intraday short for tomorrowHi Traders,
This is our view on this cross for the next days.
#SPX500
SELL 3834
SL 3848
TP 3820
We remind you that this is only a forecast based on what current data are.
Therefore the following signal will be activated only if the rules of our strategy are strictly respected.
Eventually, any updates will be given in the comment section below
———————————
Trading Kitchen
S&P 500 Ascending Channel - Short SetupSPX500 Short Trade
Entry: $3,866.6
TP & RR: $3,840.5 (1.13)
Stop Loss: $3,889.7
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Straight off the bat, you notice two things here - ascending channel and opening a position against the trend with what I consider a bad Risk:Reward Ratio of just over 1. However, I believe that price can form a double top with bearish divergence, retrace back to the lower trendline and then continue up. Of course, we will be looking to open a long order somewhere at the lower trendline.
Stop Loss is set pretty high in case there's a fakeout. However, we will close the position if there's a convincing close above the recent high.
SP500 - SHORT; SELL it here!With the credit spreads looking like they're about to blow out, equities don't stand much of a chance here, either. Look for at least a >-11% dive here.
.... or ... SELL the Nasdaq100 ...
... as it doesn't look much different, either. A little difference without much distinction.
Here is an other clue;
US Market Technicals Ahead (25 Jan – 29 Jan 2021)As we enter into the last market week of January, investors will have lots to focus on in the week ahead with a series of major U.S. companies including Apple ($AAPL), Microsoft ($MSFT), Facebook ($FB), and Tesla ($TSLA) all reporting earnings. The Federal Reserve is to meet, and markets will get their first look at fresh GDP growth figures in the final quarter of pandemic ravaged 2020. Elsewhere, the IMF is set to release its World Economic Outlook and growth figures from Germany, Mexico and Hong Kong will also be in the spotlight.
Here’s what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) recovered from the earlier week of losses, posting a weekly gain of +2.23%. The rebound have reaffirm the significance of 20DMA supporting the rally since 4th November 2020. The significance of 20DMA towards $SPX daily current price action is also observed in the various rebound highlighted in the chart (arrow), particularly thrice in December 2020 and once in January 2021.
As $SPX continues to creep up with a higher high at every bi-weekly swing, it is observed that volume is diminishing at every of this top establishment – essentially plotting out a technical bearish divergence between price rally with volume decline.
At the current junction, the $SPX remains firmly within the congested 3 months trend channel. The immediate support to watch for any further weaknesses is at 3,660 level. This level would see $SPX breaking down the highlighted trend channel convincingly, along with the first break of a minor classical support established on the opening week of 2021.
1. Earnings heat up
After leading markets higher for most of 2020, tech stocks took a backseat late last year amid a rotation into value stocks which were boosted by hopes for the economic recovery promised by vaccines.
That shift has stalled in recent days as investors weighed lackluster outlooks from big banks and a blockbuster quarterly report from Netflix ($NFLX) that saw shares climb 17%.
Microsoft ($MSFT) reports after the close on Tuesday, followed by Apple ($AAPL), Facebook ($FB) and Tesla ($TSLA), which recently joined the S&P 500, a day later.
The results could push the combined market cap of the FAANGs – Facebook, Amazon ($AMZN), Apple, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet ($GOOGL)- back above their all-time peak of $6.16 trillion.
2. Fed meeting
Fed policymakers will hold their first meeting since Democrats last week took control of the Senate, which has increased the likelihood that new President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package could be passed.
The Fed is not expected to make any policy changes at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday and is likely to reiterate that the economy is still far from its goals of full employment and 2% inflation.
There is some speculation among investors that increased government spending to boost the recovery could prompt the Fed to begin tapering its massive bond-buying program as soon as the end of this year.
But Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this month that “now is not the time to be talking about exit.”
3. U.S. GDP data
Market participants will get their first look at how the U.S. economy performed in the fourth quarter from Thursday’s figures on gross domestic product after already weaker consumer spending numbers and falling employment in December.
After a record 33.4% annualized rate of growth in the third quarter, economists are forecasting growth of 4.0% in the final three months of the year. The economy is expected to have contracted by 3.5% for the full year.
The economic calendar also features data on durable goods orders on Wednesday, initial jobless claims numbers on Thursday and personal income and spending data on Friday.
What to Expect From Equity Markets? i don't call this a top but , a sharp drop is likely to happen in 2021 ,
but i don't think it will be something like great recession , great depression , economic collapse etc...
slower but strong recovery can follow that drop too.
the previous forecasts are completed in expanded timeframes.
I'm hearing scary things - SELLI am short the entire market.
What I was just told by a high level politician is earth shattering and biblical.
The USA Corp. is bankrupt. The previous president signed a new Declaration of Independence on July 4, 2020. Check his wife's Twitter posts.
The United States is now running under the original 1776 Constitution and everything that has happened by the new administration is null/void including the inauguration.
I was told everything Congress and the Senate are doing and have done, is null/void because it was done under the old USA, Corp.
I was also told, due to the election fraud, and the illegal certification of a fraudulent election by the previous V.P., it is treason. I was told to read the 14th Amendment.
I was also told the military is running the United States, and not who you think.
As for Washington D.C., I am being told at least 2000 troops will remain and arrests will start taking place soon.
I am told this is the biggest military sting operation in the history of the United States and even the World.
I was told big news is forthcoming.
Moving into cash.
SHORT!
S&P 500 Exhaustion - Sell OrderSPX500 Short Position
Entry: $3,865.0
TP & RR: $3,828.3 (1.95)
Stop Loss: $3,883.8
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Clear divergence in the Market Flow indicator and we are reaching a trendline, which I believe will act as resistance. SL is set well above it, so we give the trade some space to breathe and hopefully develop as we expect. Target is set at the previously established resistance, which should now act as support.