SPX500 quick intraday short for tomorrowHi Traders,
This is our view on this cross for the next days.
#SPX500
SELL 3834
SL 3848
TP 3820
We remind you that this is only a forecast based on what current data are.
Therefore the following signal will be activated only if the rules of our strategy are strictly respected.
Eventually, any updates will be given in the comment section below
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Trading Kitchen
Spx500short
S&P 500 Ascending Channel - Short SetupSPX500 Short Trade
Entry: $3,866.6
TP & RR: $3,840.5 (1.13)
Stop Loss: $3,889.7
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Straight off the bat, you notice two things here - ascending channel and opening a position against the trend with what I consider a bad Risk:Reward Ratio of just over 1. However, I believe that price can form a double top with bearish divergence, retrace back to the lower trendline and then continue up. Of course, we will be looking to open a long order somewhere at the lower trendline.
Stop Loss is set pretty high in case there's a fakeout. However, we will close the position if there's a convincing close above the recent high.
SP500 - SHORT; SELL it here!With the credit spreads looking like they're about to blow out, equities don't stand much of a chance here, either. Look for at least a >-11% dive here.
.... or ... SELL the Nasdaq100 ...
... as it doesn't look much different, either. A little difference without much distinction.
Here is an other clue;
US Market Technicals Ahead (25 Jan – 29 Jan 2021)As we enter into the last market week of January, investors will have lots to focus on in the week ahead with a series of major U.S. companies including Apple ($AAPL), Microsoft ($MSFT), Facebook ($FB), and Tesla ($TSLA) all reporting earnings. The Federal Reserve is to meet, and markets will get their first look at fresh GDP growth figures in the final quarter of pandemic ravaged 2020. Elsewhere, the IMF is set to release its World Economic Outlook and growth figures from Germany, Mexico and Hong Kong will also be in the spotlight.
Here’s what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) recovered from the earlier week of losses, posting a weekly gain of +2.23%. The rebound have reaffirm the significance of 20DMA supporting the rally since 4th November 2020. The significance of 20DMA towards $SPX daily current price action is also observed in the various rebound highlighted in the chart (arrow), particularly thrice in December 2020 and once in January 2021.
As $SPX continues to creep up with a higher high at every bi-weekly swing, it is observed that volume is diminishing at every of this top establishment – essentially plotting out a technical bearish divergence between price rally with volume decline.
At the current junction, the $SPX remains firmly within the congested 3 months trend channel. The immediate support to watch for any further weaknesses is at 3,660 level. This level would see $SPX breaking down the highlighted trend channel convincingly, along with the first break of a minor classical support established on the opening week of 2021.
1. Earnings heat up
After leading markets higher for most of 2020, tech stocks took a backseat late last year amid a rotation into value stocks which were boosted by hopes for the economic recovery promised by vaccines.
That shift has stalled in recent days as investors weighed lackluster outlooks from big banks and a blockbuster quarterly report from Netflix ($NFLX) that saw shares climb 17%.
Microsoft ($MSFT) reports after the close on Tuesday, followed by Apple ($AAPL), Facebook ($FB) and Tesla ($TSLA), which recently joined the S&P 500, a day later.
The results could push the combined market cap of the FAANGs – Facebook, Amazon ($AMZN), Apple, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet ($GOOGL)- back above their all-time peak of $6.16 trillion.
2. Fed meeting
Fed policymakers will hold their first meeting since Democrats last week took control of the Senate, which has increased the likelihood that new President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package could be passed.
The Fed is not expected to make any policy changes at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday and is likely to reiterate that the economy is still far from its goals of full employment and 2% inflation.
There is some speculation among investors that increased government spending to boost the recovery could prompt the Fed to begin tapering its massive bond-buying program as soon as the end of this year.
But Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this month that “now is not the time to be talking about exit.”
3. U.S. GDP data
Market participants will get their first look at how the U.S. economy performed in the fourth quarter from Thursday’s figures on gross domestic product after already weaker consumer spending numbers and falling employment in December.
After a record 33.4% annualized rate of growth in the third quarter, economists are forecasting growth of 4.0% in the final three months of the year. The economy is expected to have contracted by 3.5% for the full year.
The economic calendar also features data on durable goods orders on Wednesday, initial jobless claims numbers on Thursday and personal income and spending data on Friday.
What to Expect From Equity Markets? i don't call this a top but , a sharp drop is likely to happen in 2021 ,
but i don't think it will be something like great recession , great depression , economic collapse etc...
slower but strong recovery can follow that drop too.
the previous forecasts are completed in expanded timeframes.
I'm hearing scary things - SELLI am short the entire market.
What I was just told by a high level politician is earth shattering and biblical.
The USA Corp. is bankrupt. The previous president signed a new Declaration of Independence on July 4, 2020. Check his wife's Twitter posts.
The United States is now running under the original 1776 Constitution and everything that has happened by the new administration is null/void including the inauguration.
I was told everything Congress and the Senate are doing and have done, is null/void because it was done under the old USA, Corp.
I was also told, due to the election fraud, and the illegal certification of a fraudulent election by the previous V.P., it is treason. I was told to read the 14th Amendment.
I was also told the military is running the United States, and not who you think.
As for Washington D.C., I am being told at least 2000 troops will remain and arrests will start taking place soon.
I am told this is the biggest military sting operation in the history of the United States and even the World.
I was told big news is forthcoming.
Moving into cash.
SHORT!
S&P 500 Exhaustion - Sell OrderSPX500 Short Position
Entry: $3,865.0
TP & RR: $3,828.3 (1.95)
Stop Loss: $3,883.8
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Clear divergence in the Market Flow indicator and we are reaching a trendline, which I believe will act as resistance. SL is set well above it, so we give the trade some space to breathe and hopefully develop as we expect. Target is set at the previously established resistance, which should now act as support.
S&P 500 Reaches a Level of Resistance - Short TradeSPX500 - Short Position(s)
Entries: $3,784.4 / 3826.8
TP & RR: $3,728.8 (3.29 / 4.12)
Stop Loss Levels: $3,801.3 / $3,850.6
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
I think it's time for the SPX500 to take a break from this bull run. As such, I am expecting that price will reach either of the two levels that I would like to short. The Risk:Reward Ratio is favorable and the Stop Loss is just above the invalidation levels.
Now, you may be wondering why the SL of the first short is not placed higher, somewhere around the second order's SL. The problem is in the Risk:Rewards Ratio. If I am to do that, I will need to adjust my position size to account for the bigger gap between entry and SL. Also, the RRR of 3.29 will fall down to 0.84. So, even if I short from the first level and the setup proves to be valid, I will increase my capital by less than 1%, compared to over 3% if I keep the trade as it is.
Even if the first setup is invalidated, and we open a profitable short on the second level, the profit of 4.12R will compensate for the 1R loss and we will be at a profit of 3.12R. Of course, it would be unpleasant to lose 1% of the account, but that's just how trading works. You either take the risk or you lose the chance.
On a side note, since it's Monday, I am not placing those as limit orders, rather I have set alerts at the levels. When we reach them I will look at the volume, the 1h candle close, and will update the idea. We don't want to blindly place orders and hope for the best.
SP500 could correct to 3500, I'm waiting for confirmationSince the "election all-time high" just under 3700, SP500 continued its rise, but this is anemic to say the least with the index gaining around 3% in the past 2 months.
The rise is in a tight channel which for me is an indication of an imminent reversal.
A break under this channel's support can be the signal for sellers and 3500 is a very modest target for this trade(I believe it will drop harder)
How much room does the tech market have to the upside? SPXIs it possible that the tech market is now in a second bubble? Although the valuation of the top 5-6 companies is accurate, what would the rest of the 455 stocks of the SPX are signalling on what is going to happen next?
In my view, I believe that a few signs on the chart of the SPX does seem to indicate that a correction is due. There is a current bearish divergence looking both the the monthly and weekly volumes in relation to the price. The MACD is highly elevated too and it seems we are not seeing a record level that we have not ever seen before. Of course, the correction back in March is a contributing factor on seeing such elevated levels but they cannot simply go on like that for too long now. Despite a vaccine being available and as of tomorrow starting to be used in the UK targeting around 2 million people, the economic prospects and worries seem to be more elevated both in Europe and the US. The US market has been flooded by vast amounts of money printed by the FED which were mostly use to purchase bonds and stocks, increasing it's balance sheet. The argument of a high inflation is real and of course is something to take serious but personally I believe that deflation will be the first real threat. Every major crisis in the past had started with a deflationary period and the pandemic has set the stage perfectly for that.
It is very possible to see some high volatility in the month of December but I believe that end of February mid March would be the the more sensitive times one should watch the market. The levels to watch would be the 21EMA on the Weekly chart as , breaking that level, would be a first sign of a potential reversal.
I will update this idea with more charts as we go along but for now I just wish to publish the current state and see if we will get any signals before the end of 2021.
SPX500/S&P500 ( DONT MISS THIS)here is SPX500 a.k.a S&P500 , we can see that price is moving respecting a bullish channel in 30 min, Then price has already tested the support of the channel, from here we are looking for buying in order for the price to test the upper boundary of the channel ( BUY AFTER RETEST)
SPX500 could DROP!Hey tradomaniacs,
if you have traded my previous SPX-LONGTRADE you should consider to take profits.
The market is testing a round number of 3.800 right at ten upper Trendline.
The FOREX-MARKET is currently pricing in a risk-off-scenario with a rising DXY (US-DOLLAR) and falling AUD and NZD.
We see a divergence in stocks and Forex which is never a good sign.
KEEP IN MIND that we will get to see the Non-Farm-Payrolls tomorrow.
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
SPX 500 nosedive in the new year The stock market has been gunning for all-time highs despite the horrible economic news going around. Based on stimulus hopes and mass euphoria of the market reaching highs, with help from the fed, investors have just been buying at the highs and pushing it higher. However, I think all of that is quickly coming to an end. The market has been pushing higher with no real fundamentals to back it up and there is a lot of negative news looming over these markets. The new Covid-19 strain is quickly spreading throughout the U.S. now so there may be fear of new lockdowns, and Trump signed an executive order for the NYSE to delist some of the biggest Chinese telecom companies in the market. All of this news may trigger some major fears among investors to start taking massive profits and the market will definitely see a huge selloff because of that. Price action also tells the story of the nosedive. As you can see, the S&P has been moving in an ascending channel with a false breakout below on December 21st, which already indicates selling pressure. The market also closed the new year at the zone of resistance formed around 3758 and 3763. The market is showing significant rejection at that level, especially on the 1 hour time frame. You can also see a double top formation and this is further indication of a reversal. Many have been pointing to a glaring bearish RSI divergence forming and they are spot on with that analysis. The market should be seeing a huge correction and if it breaks past the strong support zone around 3641 and 3645 we could see the market bleed all the way to the 3500 levels. I'm currently in a sell position and I'll be targeting 3608. There are a lot of gaps to fill in this market and I believe they will be filled in the coming week.
SPX WARNING! BE CAREFUL, END OF WAVE 3 IN APPROACH?Hi evreyone,
With a clear divergence on this last wave since january 2020, i believe investors must be careful with this main wave 5 inside the super cycle wave 3. If you ask me if it's the time to enter? My answer will be... "Bottom of wave 2 was the time to enter or bottom of main 4" which was the last march retracement.. but not now. On this chart you will see that many more entry points will be available on the retracement of Cycle Wave 4. For sure we can reach higher than 361.8% and make an extension... but i'm pretty sure that SPX will face big time resistance around 4000.00 and usualy 3.618% is the last exit for many patient investors. Also there is a clear bearish Divergence which is confirming Main W5. Long trader are now looking to exit slowly for cycle wave 4, HFT Bots will follow.
If Main Wave 5 Stop at 3.168% = 39 here are some entry points
0.398.87 = 2698.87
0.5 = 2310.86
0.618 = 1922.86 Golden Fib
You will find a lot of buyers between 0.5 and 0.618.
For sure those entry numbers refers only to a retracement that would start from the 3.618% a little less than 4k. The arrival of the Joe Biden
will be a great pretext, just be careful.
Defensive sectors would be appropriate right now like HEALTH. Health care tend to generate stable profit throughout all phases
of the economic cycle. Consumer Staples, Health Care, Utilities, Telecom services.
-If you take a look on the daily chart the daily EMA Ribbon is complety reversed which give more place to volatility and
retracements. I will post the EMA RIBBON under. For me this Look pretty scary at the moment, i would not be a buyer.
A gap like this usually can last around 65days to 80 days, this bring us between to the 6th and 21 of january.
Super Cycle wave 5 tend to loose strenght... but this wave can bring us around 5000 and more.
Have a wonderful christmas, best to you !
SPY Awfully similar patterns I am just drawing lines and scribbles here. Don't pay attention. Oh hey look FUBO is running....the next ROKU!
Wedge, megaphone, the W thingy with an extension. Am I just seeing things again or is this just some voodoo shit???
Every bear I know is dead, covered with blood and urine, laying in the dumpster somewhere. Nobody wants to short this thing anymore, Jerry got us!