This is how the week should play out.My initial projection from last weekend had Minor Wave B ending by the lunch hour on September 17. With more data, my projection has moved to the right a bit.
It looks like the Fed press conference ending Minute wave A and we are in the early stages of Minute wave B. Fortunately it should be short lived. I project this to end with a bottom around 3360 with about 3 hours left to trade on September 17.
Based on hitting that specific mark, I am projecting Minute wave C and ultimately Minor wave B to end around 3470 about one day later. I am still projecting the next down swing to begin before the week ends.
Another looser projection is the end of Minor wave B based solely on Minor wave A's movement. This has Minor wave B ending near the close of trade on September 17. I no longer assess this spot to be the end.
I will write again this weekend, but I am still bearish for the next two weeks before we are ready to test the ATH in mid to late October.
Follow and stay tuned for more!
Spx500short
DXY. P-Modeling Pt Z. Holographic Synchronicity of ChoiceWelcome Hyperspace Travelers.
Listen Carefully and Doubt everything I am about to say..
Watch. Closely. And see what is about to happen.
Bernie Sanders replaces Joe Biden and Defeats Donald Trump
Electoral Victory 84%.
Populous Victory 89%.
Landslide victory.
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STOINKS
__________________
BULLRUN in DXY means DROP in Index-Equities = Global Re-set in Preperation for Roaring 20's.
BEARRUN in DXY means RISE in Index-Equities = Death to Middle Class America.
TRUMP will be re-elected if DXY goes into a BEARRUN. Because Stocks and Index will reach blistering new highs despite the clear separation between greed and commonwealth reality , indicating nothing is going to change in our crumbling world.
Bernie Sanders will be ELECTED IF.. DXY goes into a BULLRUN. Because Stocks and Index will reach blistering new lows, to price in the acute and longstanding crumbling infrastructure of our world.
DXY rising now sets the stage for a healthy long decade long BULLRUN on Index and Equities Assets.
DXY falling now sets the stage for an extremely unhealthy decade long BEARRUN on Index and Equtities after they peak under unsustainable greed, from the utter destruction of the middle class commonwealth.
SPX: 1450 LOW. by Mid November. Potential window in April - March. But sticking to Mid-November for now.
NAS 100: 4000 LOW. by Mid November. Potential window in April if Following DXY.
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FOREX
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BULLRUN in DXY means shorting XXX.USD pairs.
BEARRUN in DXY means longing USD.XXX pairs.
Initiates a Trending Movement in this instance.
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CRYPTO
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BULLRUN in DXY means BTC has a black swan death of -90%. TP $955.00 per BTC.USD
BEARRUN in DXY means BTC has Phoenix Rising of +90%. <---- Not happening until ^^ occurs. By 2023==> $150,000 per Bitcoin.
Stick to the story.
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OIL
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is simply going to single digits again with a Rising DXY, OIL will fall in this case. FALLING DXY, oil will rise in this case.
TP $11.00 Stable.
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-----TRADE SCENRIO---
Long OPGN.
Long UVXY
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Short AUD.USD 0.62
Short EUR.USD -
Long USD.CAD 1.50 -1.55
Long USD.CHF -
Short Bitcoin. TP: $955
Short Ethereum. TP: 12$
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Then come the roaring 20s.
The start of the 4th industrial cybernetic revolution.
An age of prosperity and wealth for everyone.
A redistribution of power and opportunity for all and not just the few.
Happier times are coming...
Please try and be open minded...
The alternative is bad.
Very bad.
Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me,
Glitch420
SPX - Bearish PennantSPX is in a bearish Pennant. I'm expecting we break this by end of Thursday 9/17, if not tomorrow 9/15.
I'm hearing a lot of chatter that the correction is over..yada yada.
We are in a notoriously bad month for stocks, not to mention COVID 19 is ongoing, unemployment is still rampant, and most importantly we have a very important election coming up. Markets do not like uncertainty if Biden wins or Trump, it doesn't really matter the market needs concrete data to digest and reflect prices, until then I think we reached the top, fueled by retail traders, stimulus money, 0% interest rates, and of course the moon boys. I do not see a point to go long until after the presidency, I also have a feeling we will get a vaccine or treatment by then. Seems like the bubble already burst, would not be surprised to see SPX go below 3000 before the election. Not to mention the U.S marketcap to GDP ratio(Buffet indicator) is currently higher than it was during the dot com crash, something interesting to consider.
This is not financial advice, merely it is my reflection on what direction I believe the market is heading.
SPX heading down to 2000..On today's close, the uptrend that began in April is now over based on the intermediate term EMA cross. There are several factors which I would conclude are ripe for a major decline in the S&P 500 of which include:
- Upcoming election in the US
- Global economy mired in recession/depression
- Massive overvaluation
- Poor internals
- A few select stocks (FANG) leading the capitalization weightings
- Overall bearish seasonality
We will be taking short -5x ES contracts (-1x SP CME) on Sunday evening. Target is 2000 on the SPX with a slight possibility of a major reset down to 1550-1650 range if the panic is strong enough. VIX 100+ is possible during this timeframe. Buckle up and get ready. USD cash will be the strongest asset. All else (gold, bitcoin, commodities, etc.) are going to get hit BADLY...
XAG USD - sell to 2021This falls inline with Equities, where price will look on indexes like S&P500, Nas100, ASX200, DAX30, FTSE100 -
As these fall - commodities like XAG which are a consumer product for manufacturing - the price will suffer with equity sell offs.
Taking the Fibonacci from the low to the high of the move;
We have our targets in play.
We will close out some long positions which have been rewarding but another opportunity is here to hedge and be rewarded on the sells.
To see our breakdowns of the Indexes - see the links
as well as the long term Silver buy opportunities.
This trade a cycled seasonality trade - note the volatility here from the technical aspects around on the chart.
Use the monthly and weekly for a clearer picture.
Many thanks for those who follow us and continue your support through likes, comments and follows.
We have now surpassed our 100 follower milestone.
We will continue to share our work. Appreciate any private messages or comments in which provide substance of views agreeing or opposing.
Remember to manage your trade. This is key to success.
Thanks,
Team Lupa
SPX aka S&P500 doesnt look bullish at all 🚨😫🚨This chart shows it all. I will try to be summarize what I see. But what I see doesnt look good for the bulls.
If you can see that area with an arrow, you can see an almost bearish engulfing candle which is inherently bearish and considering the recent days bullish euphoria perhaps it is time for a correction before higher price actions.
The market has broken the uptrend line and hence we may form a consolidation zone and rip up to higher prices or we may coil down to the abyss.
The market is hanging on the 50MA line, will this magic line save the queen? Lets wait and see what the market does.
daily PSAR flipped to the bearish side but this is not terrible if we form a consolidation zone in the 3300 zone.
weekly PSAR is about to flip bearish. This is terrible most of the time it is followed by massive sell offs.
To me bears have come back with all their arsenal it is time to tighten stop losses. I will keep you updated for all the new moves this market is going to play.
Stay tuned and stay safe. Dont forget to smash the likes.
XTF.
SPX500 short/ approaching potential re-entrySPX has been looking solid for a short off the 1 hr/4 hr. The trend began within a channel, but there has officially been a breakthrough. It experienced some resistance around the 3380 price reversal zone. Should it break through and reach all the way to the 3438 area, there may be a complete reversal or a strong resistance @least.
I've been trading for almost 3 months now. This is my first mark-up. Feedback would be much appreciated. LMK what you think.
One week left for bears before moonshotEven though the downturn started a few days later than planned, it still met the expected drop. Wave A could have occurred until the end of trading on Friday, but it may have ended Friday morning at 1030.
The red down arrows and one green up arrow are based on Intermediate Wave 3 lasting 46 days and with its move extending beyond Intermediate Wave 1's movement by 134.09%. These arrows are a rough projection of movement. There length may not line up perfectly but points moved are typically much more accurate.
There are two possible tracks for the week.
Option 1:
Wave A may be in the early stages and have only completed wave 2 of wave A. This would drive the index down drastically at some point this week, before a bounce up and then more downward movement possibly with a bottom next week. A significant upward wave B would need to occur before the end of next week and then another week or too of significant drops until wave C finds its bottom. THIS COURSE IS UNLIKELY. I assess the next one to be most likely.
Option 2:
Wave A did in fact complete itself at 1030 Friday. This would mean it lasted roughly 18 30-minute bars instead of the projected 29. The projected top to bottom movement of Wave A was 246.25 versus the actual of 238.48.
Wave B's projected move was 145.44 over 20 30-minute bars. With wave B's likely end, it only lasted 9 bars and climbed 105.51. Based on my analysis, B waves typically last around 75% the length of their wave As. This B wave would be half of that, which is not abnormal, but could mean wave B moves a little higher over the first 2 hours of trading on Tuesday.
Wave C was initially projected to drop 223.11 over 33 bars. Wave C can still do this, especially if wave B moves up toward 3487 early on Tuesday.
If wave B does not find a new top by 1130 Tuesday, wave C could be in full force. With wave B starting early by 22 30-minute bars, wave C could end early by 22 bars or more. The earliest end for wave C is 1030 Thursday.
If wave B continues for a few more bars, wave C should find a solid bottom before 1430 Friday. It might be a little odd to sell during the course of a week, albeit it a shortened week, just to come off the bottom for the final 90 minutes of the week. A more likely action would be wave C's bottom earlier in the day Friday or the following Monday.
Long-term projection is still on track for a rise to new all-time highs before mid-October, followed by 700-800 point decline through Mach 2021, and a massive rise to new all-time highs again before finally crashing in early 2022.
We will see what happens. Keep checking back as we track this wild ride to the end in early 2022.
Possibly 5 waves completed - Target 1500 SPXI think this is a good spot to look for long-term shorts, It looks to me like it's 5 waves completed. Price is going up to test supply, we have bearish divergence. Vix has climbed back up onto a nice long-term uptrend with a bullish hammer. I think price can get higher in the supply zone but this is a good r/r short, and this will be cancelled if price closes above supply but I don't think it will.
Agressive 13 sell on the daily at major supply and trendline, I also think we're headed below the previous low, not sure what the catalyst will be but I think somethings coming unfortunately.
Target - 1500 SPX
S&P500: Time To Buy Stocks?For those who trade stocks, the S&P 500 Index is an important gauge when it comes to timing. Novice traders and investors especially need to understand the relationship of relative strength between their portfolio or stock and a major index like the S&P.
The concept is simple: S&P pushes new highs, your stock should be at least making an effort to follow along if not outperform, otherwise it can be "relatively" weak and become an ideal choice for getting short or getting out completely. Stocks or instruments in this situation? DE30EUR, IWM are just a couple on our short radar.
So what can this S&P chart tell you now? A couple of IMPORTANT pieces of information:
1. The blue rectangle between 3400 and 3700 is the fake out zone. This is a proportional location where the S&P is highly likely to retrace. This zone has been in place since the March low. Buying stocks "because they look strong" or because "some expert on television said it was a buy" or even worse, "my dentist told me about it", particularly in this zone puts you in a HIGHLY vulnerable, LOW PROBABILITY position. With such a high risk of retrace, you are likely going to get caught at a potential short term market peak. We have been extremely cautious over the previous month with our stock picks, and always making sure to lock in profits when we can.
2. Buying back in TOO EARLY. So we have been WAITING patiently for this perfectly healthy and NORMAL bearish retrace. As soon as it starts, the first question I get, "Is now time to buy stocks?". IF this is the broader bearish retrace that we have been anticipating, then it is TOO early for swing trades and positions trades (the type of signals we share, NOT to be confused with day trades).
Why too early? Aren't we at the 3400 support? Yes, buying activity appeared around that historical inflection point, and even attempted to produce a bullish pin bar. The problem is, with this magnitude of bearish momentum, this price action does not meet our criteria for price stability.
IF the current candle low is taken out during the week, it will signal bearish momentum is still in control. The next inflection point from here is the 3050 area which is where we will be evaluating price stability next.
With the U.S. election on the horizon, we are anticipating a broader market range from this point, NOT new highs. A range often takes the form of a large triangle and the lows of that formation are likely to establish themselves somewhere near the 3050 area. I could be wrong, but that is why we let the MARKET provide the information and we simply adjust to it.
When we see: 1. high probability inflection point, and 2. price stability, followed by a clear setup where we can clearly define risk, we will then be looking for new swing trades and position trades in relatively strong stocks. WAITING for the right location, setup and risk criteria is what leads to a positive outcome over time, NOT reacting to news or other RANDOM information. Patience PAYS.
S&P 500. P-Modeling Pt C. The Cybernetic Industrial Revolution Welcome Hyperspace Travelers... I have been eagerly awaiting you..
This is the long anticipated Part B 2.0 (C) of my S&P chart.
In order to understand my Part A chart of the S&P500 .
It is extremely necessary you go through all the snapshots of Part A. I warn you it is ungodly long. But if you want to understand more..
Please see Idea.
PLEASE SEE IDEAs ABOVE BEFORE CONTINUING^^
This is Part B. It was released recently. But I decided to clean it up and re-release the corrections made.
This is the SAME chart as PART A AND B..
These are all the SAME fractals used.
This Idea is based on a 1 Hour Time-frame.
Fractal Timing Error Allowance: No Allowance Left. (we used our error allowance Part A.) Timing Correction was 14 days, not 7 days..
Fractal Began Execution of narrative.
Thus placement of fractal window is now open. Glitch channels are now placed. Little room for error.
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In Part A (press play), you will see
Except, I took that 2008-2013 sequence, inverted it and I scaled it by Cube -1.
Please see placement of Yellow Global Fractal Line in Part A. This is the big yellow fractal I have sitting on the bottom half of that chart.
2008-2013 structure will be followed once more. Except we had to account for error.
The placement of the original fractals were not moved in Part A and in Part B and Part B 2.0 (This one).
The static fractals guide formation of the glitch channels.
So I decided to Trade SPX 500, using UVXY.
I have actively traded UVXY based off SPX 500.
My entry was 19.6 and today we hit about $30.00
UVXY Target is $215. VIX is about $135
The inverse correlation between UVXY and SPX500 is < .96 >
Extraordinarily powerful. See for yourself.
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Part A was legendary for me. I was able to bag some seriously awesome trades < Entry > @ 3003 & 3136 with a proper < Close >@ 3335 & 3368 respectively.
However, I did unsuccessfully and prematurely call the 'top' multiples times after we had fallen to 2200 and had the First Stimulus Package rally.
Too be honest, I am surprised we almost blew past 3400. That was incredible. But, looking at the laid path now.. I can see why.
Furthermore, you must understand that dynamic time-series based analyses are continuous.
The structure is simply laid out.
I tried to be as clear as I could, but this formation is considered a Black Swan Event.
A Black Swan Event is a cyclic reset of global asset classes in order to achieve a new baseline shift.
Catalysts for the Black Swan Event:
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-Wave Two of Covid-19.
-Eviction Crisis
-Systemic Bubble Collapse from Horrendous US Presidential and Congressional Policy.
-Presidential Transition
-Major Disruption of Industrial Chains from Covid-19.
-Debt Crisis
-Healthcare Crisis due to Covid-19.
-Collapse of Economic Institutions
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SPX 500 Low: $1450 by Mid-November
NASDAQ lows: $4000.
BTC lows: $955 --Idea Active--
Global Black Swan Events will lead too...
____________________________
Major Transition of Power:
It is my dearest held belief we are going to see the end of 2020 be a crazier time period than the start of 2020.
Right now. It's Trump vs Biden.
Horrible Choices.
Thankfully, I deeply believe...
Bernie Sanders will REPLACE Joe Biden and defeat Trump in the 2020 presidential election by a LANDSLIDE victory of almost 83%.
Trump will be forcefully removed from the White House after his loss. Republican will lose both the House and Senate.
Of course I simply eat too much acid, as everyone suspects and none of these events will come true. ;)
or will it..
Come for the Art, Stay for the Laughs.. :)
Buckle Up though... The spring into the 4th industrial revolution is upon us.. But first...
The Execution of the Global Black Swan Event..
Happy Hunting..
Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me,
Glitch420
Positive Correlation between S&P500 and VIX In the last few weeks, weird things are happening. We currently have a positive correlation between the S&P 500 and VIX, basically VIX grows with the S&P500 together.
I used 20 days correlation, currently it's around 0.8, and it's quite high.
Usually, you expect to see it around -1, and it makes sense.
For the last few years, the correlation was above 0 only a handful of times nothing good happened after that.
Last few cases of positive correlation: Jan 2018, May 2019, Jan 2020.
What do you think? Can that we a sign of new correction?
Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as good as in historical backtesting.
This post and/or the script don’t provide any financial advice.
sell at 3449 with 3 tp within 48hsell #sp500 at 3449 with 3 tp within 48h ,so much overbough and #jacksonhole #symposium coming also there a bit euphoria with #china #tradedeal while it should be sell the rumour and #spx500 overperform #nasdaq #DowJones #usdjpy #eurusd #audusd #audjpy #uscad #xauusd #nzdusd
also it can bed much more down make 2 separate lot and take profit on the first at tp 2 as exemple and let run the other with a manual trailing stop,like every 10 pts you down your stop wich you placed a bit down from the entry point for secure gain and no lost