Spx500short
Is there stock market drop based on around SPX possible? As we have all seen, the stock market has been on a steady rise for some time now, but I fear that we may be on the brink of a significant drop.
There are several reasons for my concern. While governments and central banks have taken measures to mitigate the effects of this past pandemic disruption, the long-term impact on the economy is still uncertain.
Secondly, we are seeing signs of overvaluation in many sectors of the market. Companies that are not yet profitable are seeing their stock prices soar, and the valuations of some of the largest tech companies are reaching levels that are difficult to justify.
Finally, we are seeing a significant increase in market volatility, with large swings in both directions becoming more common. This volatility is a clear sign that investors are becoming increasingly uncertain about the future of the market.
Given these factors, I believe it is important for traders to be wary of the current stock market rally. While it is always difficult to predict the future, I believe that the risks of a significant market drop are high.
As such, I encourage you to be cautious in your trading decisions and to consider taking steps to protect your investments. This could include diversifying your portfolio, investing in defensive sectors, or even reducing your exposure to the market altogether.
In conclusion, I urge you to take these warnings seriously and to be prepared for the possibility of a significant market drop. While I hope my concerns are unfounded, I believe it is better to be safe than sorry.
QQQ: Imminent Tech Smack Down!Tech has been on a tare, proceeded by a rip. QQQ has gone up further than I anticipated but the market is finally showing
serious signs of exhaustion. The outrageous valuations and proclamations of a new bull market are sure fire signs of the'
end of the road. It has touched the .618 fib level and depending on how you are looking at it, even surpassed it by a bit.
Looks awfully similar to the dot com bubble. The Nasdaq fell by almost 50% before retracing over 60%, arriving slightly
above the .618 fib and then resumed its downtrend, falling another 80% from its retracement high. The market also rings
of the 1973 bear market where only a few stocks were carrying the entire market before a significant downtrend and they
never quite recovered in the same way. History points to several scenarios that all shine a light on the unusual market
behaviour and what we might expect moving forward. Many are calling for a new bull market and saying that "this time
is different." That is one phrase that you want to avoid at all costs when referencing the stock market because it always
finds a way of delivering the same results, sometimes taking more time to play out or allowing those that refuse to accept
the reality of what is to come to gloat in a the,mporay victory over those more observant and subsequently cautious investors.
I think that it will not be much longer before we see a profound shift in the market and all of the indications of economic illness
are validated by price action.
Stock Market Death Cross, Impending Earnings RecessionRSP was trading below the 200 day moving average in the after hours. I wonder if it is going to open that way tomorrow. Also the 63 day moving average, which represents the quarterly moving average has fallen below the 200 day moving average as well. Not too often does this happen and more downside doesn't follow in the weeks to come.
From a pivot point perspective the total market is also trading below the pivot entering the month of June signaling that although mega caps have rallied in a major way, the average analyst consensus is a bearish stance. I say that as we've recently seen recent reports that further margin contraction is under way and an earnings recession later in the year is coming.
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ES/SPX500 Drop offLooking for a drop off to occur in the market soon.
Seasonality wise speaking June tends to be negative. Thus, I would like to see a drop in the next couple of weeks.
There is the August high which looks tempting as a DOL and there is a FVG left back in April 2022. I will watch price when we engage in both of those levels and will see how price reacts, if correct price action is seen for the bears to take over, I will short.
The targets are also outlined, and once reached, will re-evaluate the scenario to see if we get further downside.
S&p500 Golden Swing Opportunity We are in a very crucial zone in terms of time and price on Sp500 right now and people who make the right decisions will make money.
But to make the right decisions you must look at the data and filter out all the noise and be patient.
I have presented my case for incoming selloff a few times before and now it's all coming together. I have provided the links to my previous posts below, please go over them to get the full picture.
I am building shorts in 4185 to 4230 Area and there are several reasons for that.
Technical Reasons:
1. On the chart I have a large parallel channel. Currently the price is hovering
near the top edge of the channel. This itself is a reason to look for shorts here.
2. Chart also has an indicator which shows 9 count sell signals as per TD sequential
method. Notice what happened last time when the price was near the top of the channel.
We got two consecutive nine count sell signals and as soon as price hit the top of the
channel multi month sell off began. We have something remarkably similar going on right
now.
3. Last time when we were near the top of the channel, we had bear divs on RSI and Money
flow, we have them now as well.
4. We have harmonics ratios providing heavy resistance from 4214 region and upwards.
5. Another thing to notice is 4300 is 61.8 retracement level of the move from the top, That's
another reason to build shorts here, one should not wait for 4300 to be hit to build short, as
its absolute top and may not get hit due to other factors I mentioned above.
If we begin the selloff in the coming weeks, we are looking at a possible 30% drop from current levels, in the next 3 to 4 months. I have provided these targets and measures based on past price action from top of the channel to the bottom, this of course is not going to be 100% accurate can change based on future market moving events.
We also have below confluences for targets motioned in the chart above: June 14th We have Fed event, and SPX has been moving in the highlighted disjoint channel for a while so if we intersect 14th June with the channel we get the max upside and downside targets.
Fundamental reasons:
1. The Fed's actions to raise interest rates are likely to slow the economy, which will lead to a recession. The Fed has said repeatedly they will continue to raise rates to bring down inflation to the target goal of 2% which is not yet achieved so no rate pauses as institutions and new media like people to believe.
2. Debt Ceiling battle: With no resolution in sight, the uncertainties surrounding this event could be the trigger to start the selloff although I am not discounting the possibility of a manipulative rally to 4300 which is a fantastic opportunity to build shorts.
2.1 If there is no resolution on this topic and US defaults everyone knows what will happen
, so, until that is resolved all the contrarian traders should be extremely cautious.
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Keep learning and Happy trading All.
SPX Short Day TradeLooking at the short execution of the bearish harmonic PRZ, confluent with the .786 and 0.886 retracement of the whole move up It's a day trade. It can be a swing trade as well based one's risk capacity for Swing Trade SL is much higher at 4280.
Alternate View of the chart with all the levels of interest.
I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned and if you like my content and would like to learn from my experience hit like and follow me for getting notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming tutorials on technical analysis and several technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to analyze any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it.
Keep learning and Happy trading All.
ES-MINI RISK-OFF Q2With recession fears growing, a lot of individuals are short here, and will accept a bull case scenario if we see a break of 4200, or a break of the February highs.
Thus, what I'd like to see is price going up and taking out the February highs during either Monday or Tuesday.
Then, on Wednesday, with the Core CPE data coming out, I'd like for that news to be a catalyst to see an initial move up, purging the liquidity, and turtle souping, above the highs created on Monday/Tuesday. I'd like to see price go up into the weekly FVG that I have highlighted from where we should see some sort of distribution in the smaller timeframes to then start a new swing move lower.
My first initial target would be the BISI at 4052.50. Price could play around at this level, or reverse or a bit.
If we manage to break through that BISI, I'd like to see price take out the low beneath it.
ATTENTION: S&P 500 - Medium Term Right Side is DOWNTechnical Analysis:
- S&P is going to finish wave ((B)) in black in the next 2-4 weeks
- Short Term Right Side (H4) is turning up
- Medium Term Right Side is down to complete a wave II in red
Technical Information:
- Don't buy now S&P if you're a swing trader
- If you're a position trader please wait for wave II in red to be completed
SPX500 more correction expected close to great resistance ❌🧨Hello 🐋
Based on the chart, the price is close to the unbelievable resistance zone (the descending channel resistance, the parallel channel resistance and the ascending channel resistance) ❌🧨
we expect to see more correction to the downside ❌🧨
brief green candlesticks before shark dump and correction is logical ❌🧨
Please, feel free to share your point of view, write it in the comments below, thanks 🐋
PX500 - goes to test the global trend line!Hello trader Today I have prepared a new idea for you. Like and subscribe to the channel there is a lot of useful information✅
Technical - the stock market may test the global trend line, at the moment it acts as support for the SPX500. Usually such tests are met with squeezes and after that the price returns again to test the support, can we bounce back to the 4150 points zone again, technically everything looks like this, let's see where this correction will lead.
Fundamentally - there are rumors that the correction in the stock market began due to the problems of one of the FIRST REPUBLIC BANK banks, which may go bankrupt soon, the bank's shares have already fallen by -40%, another bank in the Fed's piggy bank, the printing press is probably already refueling with ink))
SPX 15M 24/04/2023On the 15-minute timeframe, we are currently in a bearish range between 4144 and 4121, with the latter being the liquidity zone of the range. This makes it a potentially good target for a short trade. Currently, the price is retracing to the grey demand zone of the range, so with confirmation, one could enter a short position, anticipating the continuation of the trend and the liquidation of the 4-hour liquidity points.
SPX 1H 24/04/2023In the one-hour timeframe, we observe that the price has retraced to the grey zone around 4143 and has reacted favorably to the 4-hour trend. Once again, the price action is close to retracing to the same zone, which could indicate a potential short trade if entry criteria are met. Similarly, we can refer to smaller timeframes to observe new ranges forming in favor of the 4-hour trend