SNP500 & My BIG SHORT - Recession TradeSPX is destined to drop hard, back to 2009 lows.
I decided to go short, to catch the next Market Crash.
It's the previous Wave 4 of a lesser degree.
If you know Elliott Wave as I do, then you are getting ready too.
In my opinion SPX500USD has topped a Wave 5 of a large degree.
More info on that in my Full Wave Count for that 150y old chart.
Here's a picture on that SPX500 / US500 Monthly Chart:
Now, what are the main reasons behind my BIG SHORT on US500.F ?
1. The Volatility Index (VIX) is showing a Fractal, the 2007-2009 same/exact sequence.
2. The United States Consumer Confidence Index (USCCI) is telling me that Consumers are entering the Fear Period.
3. The Federal Reserve Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS / FRED) has broken out of an important Downtrend.
4. The US Inflation Rate (USIRYY) is saying that a full-blown war has started.
5. The 10y Treasury Note Yield (TNX) just broke out of a 40y Downtrend.
6. The US 10y Government Bonds (US10 / US10Y / USB10YUSD) finalized a big bearish leg.
7. The Crypto Market Cap (TOTAL) & Bitcoin (BTCUSD) : The Golden King is taking over.
I know what you might be thinking: SPXUSD could actually do one last Bullish move, an overshoot in the last of the last 5th, right?
In this case, the Wave Count on ES1! could be one step behind, and the Impulse Extension in the 5th of 5th was left out.
Yes, that could be a scenario as well, and I will get burnt.
However, I do not think that's the case, so I am loading my Shorts on SPX500USD !
I could not help but noticing that SPX500 is doing the same Fractal Sequence it did on the previous 2007-2009 Recession.
My Sell Orders & Trading Signals on the SPX Market Crash:
* Aggressive Entry: @ Market Price ($3960)
* Moderate Entry: @ $4500 with SL @ 4900
* Conservative Entry: @ 4700.0 with SL @ 5400
* Position Trading: Sell Stop @ 3700.0 with SL @ 4800.0
* Targets @ : $3200 / $2750 / $2500 / $2200 / $1800 / $1400 / $1100
* Safety measures: when in the green, moving SL @ BE.
Good luck and many pips ahead!
Richard, the Wave Jedi.
US SPX 500
SPX500 - New Breakout 📈Hello Traders !
On The Daily Time Frame, The SPX500 Price Reached A Strong Support Level (4141.00 - 4103.00).
The Resistance Level (4397.84 - 4376.45) is Broken and Becomes a New Support Level.
The Resistance Line is Broken.
So, I Expect a Bullish Move📈.
i'm waiting for retest...
-----------
TARGET: 4500.00🎯
SPx500 4H pressing the barrierhello everyone,The index price repeatedly presented positive pressure on the stable barrier at 4422, with the aim of finding an outlet to resume the previously suggested upward attack. Currently, and with the main indicators of positive momentum presented, we advise waiting for the price to achieve the required breakthrough, to open the door to reaching additional stations, which may start from 4443 and 4464, respectively.
While the failure of the breakthrough may force the price to form a temporary corrective bounce, attracting towards 4386, reaching additional support centered at 4353 before recording any new positive target.
Pivot Price: 4422
Resistance prices: 4443 & 4464 & 4500
Support prices: 4386 & 4353 & 4328
The general trend expected for today: bullish with the breakthrough
SPX to see a higher correction to the downside?SPX500USD - Intraday
Broken out of the wedge formation to the upside.
The formation has a measured move target of 4540.
Bearish Outside Day posted, a pattern that often indicates the end of a bullish run and the start of a new downward bias.
Bespoke support is located at 4310.
Reverse trend line support comes in at 4295.
There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
We look to Sell at 4360 (stop at 4380)
Our profit targets will be 4310 and 4295
Resistance: 4360 / 4380 / 4397
Support: 4337 / 4310 / 4295
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
SPx500 testing initial supportThe index price failed in yesterday’s trading to resume the upward attack, affected by the exit of the Stochastic indicator from the overbought level, forcing it to form a bearish corrective bounce,
We currently and continually expect the price to be exposed to negative pressures, forming an additional corrective decline to incur additional losses by being attracted towards 4328 and then trying to test the main support extending towards 4298 . As for its renewal of the upward push, this requires presenting a positive close above the 4383 level, to facilitate the task of achieving new gains that may extend towards 4402 and 4423 respectively.
Pivot Price: 4383
Resistance Price: 4402 & 4423 & 4464
support price: 4328 & 4298 & 4268
The expected general trend for today: corrective bearish
timeframe: 4H
SPx500 moving slowlyIn yesterday's trading, the index price touched the level of 4402 and then repeated the sideways fluctuation near 4362, affected by the attempt to exit the Stochastic indicator from the overbought level, while the general stability is above the support level extending towards 4383 and the attempt to form the moving average 55 for additional support by settling at 4423, this calls us to adhere to the bullish bias. Which may soon target 4423 and 4464, respectively.
Pivot Price: 4383
Resistance Price: 4402 & 4423 & 4464
support price: 4353 & 4328 & 4298
The general trend expected for today is bullish
timeframe: 4H
SPX500Pair : SPX500 Index
Description :
Exp FIAT as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame and Rejection from the Lower Trend Line after it has Completed " abcde " Corrective Waves. Impulsive Wave " 1234 " Completed at Fibonacci Level - 50.00%
Entry Precaution :
Wait until it Breaks or Rejects UTL
SPx500 remains positiveThe index price offered some recent positive trading yesterday , trying to confirm continued positive with repeated stability above support
The above calls us to wait for the price to gather additional positive momentum to facilitate the task of surpassing the 4383 level and reaching the next key target positioned at 4402.
Pivot Price: 4383
Resistance Price: 4402 & 4423 & 4464
support price: 4353 & 4328 & 4298
The general trend expected for today: bullish
timeframe: 4H
DXY : The key is whether it can be maintained below 105.664Hello traders!
If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click “Boost”.
Have a good day.
-------------------------------------
(DXY chart)
DXY is showing a decline below 105.664-106.416.
Therefore, the key is whether it can meet resistance and decline around 105.664.
The decline in DXY is because the investment market is likely to be active.
-----------------------------------------
(SPX500USD chart)
If it remains above 4369.8, it is expected to turn into an upward trend.
If not, a gradual decline is expected.
---------------------------------------------
(NAS100USD chart)
Since the HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart was created around 14328.9, if it remains above the HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart (14437.6), it is likely to continue the uptrend.
--------------------------------------------------
- The big picture
The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------
** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA.
How to display (in order from darkest to darkest)
More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA
** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own.
** This chart was created using my know-how.
---------------------------------
SPx 4H :Trying to retest SPx
New forecast
Despite the weak trading of the index price yesterday and its repeated stability near 4353, this will not affect the main upward path, so we will maintain our bullish bias, but before that the price will try to form a downward correction, and after that it will rise.
Therefore the price will try to formed the negative correction and to confirm that should stable under 4353 and then the price will try to reach 4341 and breaching that will extend to 4321 , taking into account that stabilized above 4370 level will force the price to return the main bullish trend and targeting 4395.
The expect range trading for today it will be between the resistance line 4395 and support line 4341.
Additionally Today ,New York sessions will affect on the Indices .
support line : 4353, 4341
resistance line : 4370 , 4395
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
SPx 4H :Above 4370 will support to rise SPx
New forecast
The price perfectly fulfills my last idea and price reached to our target +150 pip .
The index price rose last week and reached to our targets and confirmed its move towards the upward path by rushing above the 4321 level. We expect the price to resume the upward attack, waiting for stability above the 4370 level to confirm the continuation of the upward trend.
Therefore the upward scenario will be remain valid supported by moving average 50 ,but to confirm the bullish trend should stable above 4370 and then our target will be activate and will reach to 4395 and 4427, taking into account that breaching the support level 4354 will force the price to formed the negative correction and then will rise up .
The expect range trading for today it will be between the resistance line 4395 and support line 4341.
Additionally Today ,New York sessions will affect on the Indices .
support line : 4354 , 4341
resistance line : 4370 , 4395
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
S&P 500 - Bullish Continuation for 2024█ OVERVIEW
Since 2022, the S&P 500's consolidation efforts seem to be coming to a clear Head and Shoulders pattern, completed by a recent 3 bullish drives pattern. While it would be naive to think a straight beeline to 5000 is in play, the current price of 4350 is suggesting a return to new highs in early-mid 2024. This is likely to be in sync with the Federal Reserve rate hikes and the resulting market adjustments made at each announcement by Chair Powell. Sharing this as an educational/informative learning opportunity of technicals playing in sync with fundamentals.
█ CONCEPTS
Head and Shoulders
The inverse head and shoulders pattern is a widely recognized technical chart pattern seen on analysis across this platform. Primarily, many see the pattern used in potential trend reversals in various types of markets, particularly in stocks, currencies, and commodities.
The iH&S pattern consists of three main components:
Left Shoulder: First phase that occurs during a downtrend. Represents a temporary low - selling pressure starts to weaken and buyers start to enter
Head : Central and most important component of the pattern. The head forms after the left shoulder and becomes the lowest price level reached in the downtrend
Right Shoulder : Similar to the left shoulder in that it represents another temporary low point in the price
Three Bullish Drives
First Drive: The first drive occurs after a prolonged downtrend, during which selling pressure has dominated the market. In this phase, the price of the asset starts to show signs of stabilization or slight recovery.
Second Drive: Following the initial recovery, there is often a pullback or consolidation in price. This is the second drive, during which the asset's price retraces to some extent but doesn't make new lows.
Third Drive : The third drive is the final and critical phase of the pattern. It occurs when buyers make a strong push to drive the price higher, surpassing the previous resistance levels and confirming the trend reversal.
SPX500 to continue in the rally?US500 - Intraday
Price action has formed an expanding wedge formation.
The formation has a measured move target of 4540.
The trend of lower highs is located at 4323.
Bespoke resistance is located at 4331.
A break of 4340 is needed to confirm follow through bullish momentum.
Economic figures could adversley affect the short term technical picture.
We look to Buy a break of 4340 (stop at 4300)
Our profit targets will be 4440 and 4460
Resistance: 4323 / 4331 / 4380
Support: 4269 / 4190 / 4187
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
SPX UPDATE SPX UPDATE
After a strong fall, a correction has come . In order to be convinced that this minor downward trend is over, we must conquer the 10WMA and make a minimum higher high that brings us to 4400.Also Stoch RSI shows positive signs
By holding it, we are leaving the range we have been in for almost a year.
Earnings are still positive, so that added strength.
Tomorrow news to follow : Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
SPX500 ShortThe SPX is showing 4 variables that suggest the price will drop.
In our trading strategy, when an asset that is showing 4 variables in the same direction, we take the trade. As always the SL is one that as of right now makes sense, we will update if something changes.
The 4 edges (Variables) that suggest downside:
1. Confirmation of old channel as resistance.
2. Confirmation of 2021 high as resistance after price failed to return above it.
3. Bearish divergence on the MacD.
4. A bearish dark cloud cover/ piercing line candlestick formation (Confirmed with a negative close today).
Not to mention the asset retraced 61.8% to its recent high from low putting it in the golden zone.
We can never say an asset WILL go in a specific direction. We just look for scenarios where, based on researched methods, an asset has a higher probability of going in a direction. When multiple edges line up, we take the trade. This is one of those cases.
NAS100USD : Check whether it rises above 14328.9Hello?
Hello traders!
If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click “Boost”.
Have a good day.
-------------------------------------
(DXY chart)
It appears to be moving sideways near the 105.664-106.416 section.
This section is an important boundary section of the investment market, so the key is whether a trend is formed outside of this section.
In order for the investment market to become active, I believe that DXY must fall and remain below the 105.664-106.416 range.
----------------------------------------------
(SPX500USD chart)
SPX500USD is showing a cascading decline.
Additionally, it is falling below 4142.5, showing signs of a downward trend even from a long-term perspective.
Accordingly, the key is whether it can rise above 4142.5 and be maintained.
-------------------------------------------------- -
(NAS100USD chart)
It is showing the same movement as the SPX500USD chart, but I think it is still ambiguous to say that it has turned into a downward trend.
If it falls below 14328.9 and remains there, it is likely to fall to around 13231.6 in the near future.
Accordingly, the key is whether it can rise above 14328.9 and be maintained.
--------------------------------------------------
- The big picture
The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------
** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA.
How to display (in order from darkest to darkest)
More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA
** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own.
** This chart was created using my know-how.
---------------------------------
SP500 Sets to trend lowerGreetings, traders!
Analyzing the Consolidation Phase of SP500's:
The SP500 has been locked in a substantial consolidation period spanning the last 24 months. This extended consolidation often signifies a period of market indecision, with buyers and sellers in a tight tug-of-war. Such phases are crucial for traders as they often precede significant price movements.
Bearish Harmonic Pattern:
During this consolidation, a bearish harmonic pattern has emerged, casting shadows on the index’s future. Harmonic patterns, with their unique geometry, are potent indicators of potential trend reversals. Traders keen on technical analysis often scrutinize these patterns for hints on market direction.
August - September - October Decline: A Sign of Bearish Momentum?
A notable decline in August, followed by further lowering lows in September and October, underpins a growing bearish sentiment. These descending movements suggest a potential downward trend, capturing the attention of traders seeking short positions.
Key Levels: 4200, 4000, and 3880 - The Battle Ahead:
As the index hovers below the critical 4200 mark, traders are bracing for a challenging journey ahead. The next formidable support levels lie at 4000 and 3880. These levels, once breached, could trigger substantial market shifts, offering both peril and opportunity to astute traders.
RSI: A Guiding Star in the Storm:
Accompanying this price action, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) traces the market's movements. Notably, the RSI has carved a downward resistance line mirroring the index's descent. Savvy traders recognize this RSI trendline as a potential breakout signal, offering a glimmer of hope amidst the bearish landscape.
The SP500's current position demands a nuanced approach, with meticulous attention to patterns, support levels, and RSI signals. Arm yourself with knowledge and strategic insight to navigate these uncertain waters successfully.
As always, happy trading, and may your strategies be as resilient as the market itself!
SPX Market Crash: The 150y Elliott WaveThis is an SPX chart from 1872. A 150 year old chart.
As you know, I am the Elliott Wave Jedi.
So, I took the liberty of labeling this SPX500 chart.
There's only one thing I can say:
"SNP500 is preparing for a BIG Drop, a Market Crash".
My Wave Count suggests that a major Bearish Swing is starting, or will start soon.
The 2009 lows are inevitable. Price Action will be drawn there like a magnet.
Calling all Autobots!
( SPX , SPX500 , SPX500USD , SPXUSD , US500 , SP500 )
A Recession is due and bigger events will crash the markets globally.
* Some more details in the related ideas.
Fundamental Analysis & Facts:
* Fear vs Greed: VIX (Volatility Index)
It will spike!
* US Consumer Confidence Index: USCCI
People are worried about the future.
* US Inflation Rate: USIRYY
War is coming.
* US 10y Yields: TNX
The 40y Downtrend Break-Out
* US 10y Bonds: USB10YUSD
Bonds Rush, Investors & Fear
Technical Analysis: Elliott Wave Cycles
The Wave Count tells me that a Major Degree is ending, in this case it's the SubMillenium Wave 3.
If you are good at counting waves, then you can see that as well.
The Elliott Wave Time Degrees are on the chart.
Levels I am watching: $4500 & $6500.
IMO, SPX has already started the Recession Bearish Swing, so I am already treating the ATH as the actual top.
In case of another ATH, then this will mean that the current position was a SuperCycle (IV).
After the last 5th, SPX will surely drop, from around $6500 back to $1100.
However, as I said: "I believe the Markets have topped, and that the Recession has started".
Check out a close-up: 2009-2022 Elliott Wave Count.
I am shorting the Markets.
Good luck guys and many pips ahead!
Richard, the Wave jedi.
P.S. Props to @TradingView for providing this 150y old chart.
S&P500 Bear aiming to retest 2022 Aiming to break through support line to retest support at 2022 levels.
If that happens then we have a Double Top formation on the Monthly Chart.
At that point we can either go to pre-covid crash levels which is possible scenario to happen due to inflation and high interest rates from the banks in order to slow economy down.