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US SPX 500

Flattening retail sales, declining inventories and real outputYesterday’s financial print in the United States indicated a 0.4% MoM and a 1.6% YoY rise in retail sales for April 2023. The data showed that industrial production increased by 0.5% MoM and 0.2% YoY during the same period. Business inventories shrank by 0.1% MoM, and manufacturing production jumped by 1% MoM (while showing a decline of 0.9% YoY). As this mix of data did not help to bring much clarity to the market, we would like to look at the bigger picture rather than at monthly changes in these metrics. Retail sales have been trending relatively sideways since March 2022. Moreover, since around the same time, business inventories have continuously declined, suggesting that businesses are not stacking up goods for sale (and are likely anticipating lower demand in the future). The real output in the manufacturing sector dropped slightly lower in the past half year, and the real output in the nonfarm business sector has been declining for much longer (at least since 4Q21). Furthermore, based on the preliminary report from BLS, nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased by 2.7% in the first quarter of 2023, while manufacturing sector labor productivity dropped by 1.3%. These developments are not particularly bullish and should have investors on high alert. With that said, we continue to wait for more bad data (concerning rising unemployment, declining consumer spending, growing delinquencies on debt, etc.), which should finally start spooking the overly complacent market. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the chart of U.S. retail sales. This metric can be seen flattening since at least March 2022. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the business inventories. Illustration 1.03 The picture above shows the real output in the nonfarm business sector. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
18
Concentration of funds into the investment market is expectedHello? Traders, welcome. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a good day. ------------------------------------- (NAS100USD chart) It is showing a rise above the 12896.2-13418.8 section, which is the volume profile section of the 1W chart. Therefore, if it rises above 13418.8 or rises above the 13231.6-13480.9 section on the 1D chart and shows support, it is expected to show a sharp rise. If not, you need to make sure it is supported around 12716.0-12896.2. ------------------------------------------------- (SPX500USD chart) You need to follow the rising channel to see if you can maintain the bullish trend. Looking at the 1M chart, it shows an upward movement along the lower uptrend line. As such, it is expected to remain in an uptrend as long as it does not fall below this uptrend line. ----------------------------------------- (DXY chart) If it shows sideways in the 98.244-101.494 section, the investment market is expected to be active. Therefore, it is necessary to follow the downtrend and see if the downtrend can be maintained until around June 6th. The investment market is not just the stock market. Therefore, as funds are concentrated in any investment product, there is a possibility that it will lead to a sharp rise. I think this concentration of funds is an abnormal phenomenon. However, many funds are stagnant in an environment where it is difficult to invest in the actual economy, so if a concentration of funds occurs in these investment markets, it is expected that actual economic investment will eventually be gradually activated. In that sense, we should pay attention to USDT's fund concentration phenomenon. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own. ** This is a chart created with my know-how. ---------------------------------
TVC:DXY
by readCrypto
spx 900Good morning esteemed individuals, bag holders, and exit liquidity providers. In my previous post, I dissected the Dow Jones and received a plethora of animosity for it - thus, I have returned to impart additional truths upon the disgruntled boomer brethren, much to their chagrin. --- Within Elliott Wave Theory, the third and fifth waves typically exhibit a notable bearish divergence, as elegantly depicted in this 12-month chart. Higher degree Wave 4s often retrace to the territory of the preceding degree's Wave 4. To affirm the culmination of the 13-year movement spanning from 2009 to 2022, one may peruse my post below: Note that, at the time, I was observing the market through a rather conservative lens, failing to consider the myriad of appalling truths I have since unearthed regarding the system to which we all regrettably belong. --- What lies ahead surpasses the darkest depths of our current imaginations. You, the one in denial, shall bear the brunt of the impact. --Brace for the worst, and may fortune favor your 401k.
SP:SPX
by notoriousbids
2
SPX Swing Trade, History repeating (CPI incoming)The chart is self-explanatory, I have highlighted in the chart where we saw remarkably similar price action in the past. I have identified two different structures in the chart, a parallel channel, and a disjoint channel. We are currently trading in the disjoint channel. A disjoint channel has expanding edges which have same slopes locked in opposite directions. We entered the Current Disjoint channel from a parallel channel trending upwards which is exactly what happened in the past, the only difference is size of these channels, in past we had larger Parallel and disjoint channel compared to what we have now. The small size of channels this time indicates reduced volatility overall, which if it happens at the end of an uptrend, means we are topping out. Let's make some predictions based on this. If we look at the current price action, it is forming a bull flag (highlighted in the chart) , I have also highlighted the measured move of the flag. If the flag plays out its measured move intersects directly into the top of the disjoint channel as well as the August high. Which I believe should be the top or close to it. In case bull flag fails , and we first drop a bit then we can look at that the blue line, it is placed for 10th May CPI Day and if we move up on that day, we are still intersecting close to the August High and top of the disjoint channel. Apart from the above structures we also have a harmonic structure with its PRZ falling right onto Aug high. If you like my content then please boost and share this post. I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned. If you would like to learn from my experience then follow me on trading view to get notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming technical analysis and in-depth tutorials on technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to look at any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it. Keep learning and Happy trading All.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by zakoraio
2
spx500, updated [primary]good evening,,, follow up to my last post on the nasdaq. it is thanks to this particular picture, that the nasdaq count becomes possible. --- the spx500 came down in 5 waves from all time high, labeled wave (a). from the 2022 lows, it begun retracing in what looks like a perfect 3 wave move. there's a beautiful running flat in there which was very tricky to see. --- i believe the spx500 is about to complete wave c of wave (b) into this summer. once it does, i will give you a comprehensive update + some downside targets to look forward to. ✌
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
2
ES-MINI RISK-OFF Q2With recession fears growing, a lot of individuals are short here, and will accept a bull case scenario if we see a break of 4200, or a break of the February highs. Thus, what I'd like to see is price going up and taking out the February highs during either Monday or Tuesday. Then, on Wednesday, with the Core CPE data coming out, I'd like for that news to be a catalyst to see an initial move up, purging the liquidity, and turtle souping, above the highs created on Monday/Tuesday. I'd like to see price go up into the weekly FVG that I have highlighted from where we should see some sort of distribution in the smaller timeframes to then start a new swing move lower. My first initial target would be the BISI at 4052.50. Price could play around at this level, or reverse or a bit. If we manage to break through that BISI, I'd like to see price take out the low beneath it.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Turtlesoup_Maestro
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAY 08 WEEKCME_MINI:ES1! ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAY 08 WEEK Are we seeing the bearish ascending triangle already? As with NQ, tendency to take rotational trades has diminished. Scenario Planning: 1) Rejection short at 4175 / 4068 2) If market decides to spring a surprise, long on test of break of 4198 and finds support Volume Analysis: Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = minor weakness Daily: High vol narrow spread S>D bar = weakness Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4303 4198 4068 3928 3788 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
Activation of the investment market is...hello? Traders, welcome. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a good day. ** Analysis of the BTC chart publishes new ideas once a week. ** However, we publish new ideas when volatility occurs or when we show signs of diverging from our expectations. ** Excluding the above situation, BTC analysis is listed as a daily update. ------------------------------------- (NAS100USD chart) The key is whether there is a movement outside the 12896.2-13418.8 section, which is an important volume profile section. If it rises above 13231.6-13480.9, it is expected to continue its upward trend around 14710.6. If not, and it falls below 12497.5-12716.0, I would expect a decline around 11366.9-12119.2. The important thing is that it is maintaining an uptrend along the uptrend channel plotted on the 1D and 1W charts. However, since the 1M chart has not yet formed an upward channel, it is necessary to check the situation in the future. -------------------------------------------------- ------- (SPX500USD chart) The key is whether you can maintain the uptrend along the rising channel drawn on each chart. If it fails to do so and starts to break out of the uptrend channel one by one, it is likely to lead to a sharp decline. If it shows an uptrend along the rising channel, I would expect it to rise above 4310.8. Since the 1M chart's HA-High indicator is formed at 4419.8, you need to check whether it can rise above the 4252.2-4310.8 section. -------------------------------------------------- ----------- (DXY chart) The question is whether it can move sideways below 101.494. If it does not, and rises above 102.020-105.873, the investment market is expected to slow further. If it moves sideways in the 98.244-101.494 section, the investment market is expected to be active. The activation of these investment markets means that there is a high possibility of showing results different from the actual economic situation. Therefore, it is not good to predict the prospects of the investment market, that is, the coin market, based only on the current global economic situation. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own. ** This is a chart created with my know-how. ---------------------------------
OANDA:NAS100USD
by readCrypto
1
Inverse H & S on Weekly SPX Analysis We are nearing an important event tomorrow where we will come to know about Fed funds rates and FOMC guidance for upcoming months. These events are known for creating extreme volatility. We can easily swing up and down 100- 150 points on days like these and set in motion what's to come for the next few months. No matter how big of a volatile move we will see tomorrow in the price action, it will be a small blip on a larger timeframe and that's what we are here to analyze. On weekly Time frame I am looking at this inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. Let's analyze this structure based on RSI indicator. In the main chart we can see that, since the time inverse H & S began to form, the RSI has been trading in a Rising wedge formation which is a bearish pattern. Every time we touch the top edge of the wedge, we have been getting a rejection on RSI and big move down in SPX. In the begenning of the structure and RSI we got huge moves to the downside, but those moves have been getting smaller and smaller both in RSI and Price Action. This is called compression which is followed by explosive moves once the pattern is broken. Last week we again got a rejection from the top edge of the wedge and have begun to move down, I have placed the measurements on the chart about how much we have been dropping every time we touch top edge of the wedge on RSI and based on the patterns in price drop and how much time it took to drop to the lower edge. We can expect a drop of about 5+ % from the current top and reach there in the next 2 to 3 weeks. Now once we have reached there RSI will have to decide whether to bounce back up or finally break the pattern. The break to the downside has descent chances of happening as per the Rising wedge pattern rules where it says the pattern break occurs in last 33% of the structure and it looks like we should be there by end of this month. If it does break below the inverse H & S pattern will fail. The best way to protect you from entering wrong trades : is to never be too sure about any analysis and always consider all possibilities. Following are the possibilities I see with RSI which can make or break the structure: We must monitor all the trendlines in RSI and see what PA is doing, it may not go all the way down and bounce back up from one of the trendlines in the middle. The following are all scenarios I am watching for the movement of RSI. I used a simple but powerful RSI indicator to gain insight on SPX Price action. If you are not familiar with this indicator, or if you have basic understanding but want to fully understand this indicator in detail: You can ago through the post in the links below: I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned and if you like my content and would like to learn from my experience hit like and follow me for getting notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming tutorials on technical analysis and several technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to analyze any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it. Keep learning and Happy trading All.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by zakoraio
SPX500USD Will Go Up From Support! Long! Take a look at our analysis for SPX500USD. Time Frame: 8h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 4170.8. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 4234.1 level. P.S We determine overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SignalProvider
12