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US SPX 500

SP500 Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023 SP500 Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023 Based on the data from VIX we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 19.76%, down from 20.21% last week. This can be translated in +/- 2.74% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel TOP: 4188 BOT: 3965 The probability to break this channel(aka the close of the weekly is going to end up either above/below this channel) is at 82% with the last 20 years of data 71% with data since 2022 However, if we were to make a more accurate statement, based on the current percentile of the VIX( from 0 to 10) , we can apply a condition in the filter to look for scenarios when the volatility were lower than 50 percentile( bottom half). If we were to take this data we can see, that our numbers would be: 84% according to the last 20 years of data 79% according to the data since 2022 Overall we can see an increase in the probability chance, and at the same time more accurate with the current events. So we can use this data instead for proper calculation of our trading plan From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information: Currently there is a : 80% to touch the previous weekly high 26% to touch the previous weekly low At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see : 4H Timeframe: -13% Bearish Trend D Timeframe: +80% Bullish Trend W Timeframe: +66% Bullish Trend Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move: 2.85% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario 2.47% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
SPX Model Trading Plans for FRI. 01/27Good News, Bad News? - Day 2 As the earnings season is picking up the speed, markets seem to be buoyant on the sentiment that the worst is over. It may not take much for the market sentiment to turn the other way. But, until that happens, the momentum is to the upside. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models currently are in a neutral bias. Models indicate going short on the close if the daily close is below 4040, with a 35 point trailing stop. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for FRI. 01/27: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4053, 4040, or 4024 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4037 or 4021 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit long exits and no explicit short exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason #chinareopen
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SPX is getting close to it's target boxThis was the title of the last update, which got deleted by the tradingview: "SPX can still make a higher high next week - Jan 19th update" I cannot attach the image but will post it another place, look for info under my bio Since I get banned not even mentioning a site, I will post here only 1-3 times a week. I don't want to waste my time on bringing business to this site. SPX is near its completion move for the C wave up I have had for over than a week now. Targets are at 4065, 4090 and 4110 We close near the first one; tomorrow is the PCE numbers report, which should move the markets. But today, we didn't move on GDP numbers, when before, it was selling off on hot numbers. So the real move might not come till actually the Fed meeting on the 1st. We had a wall into the close, which is a bearish signal and usually ends up with a gap down the next day. As long as we won't exceed Dec high, I'm looking for a move down to 3700 handle if not more. Watch that yellow trendline, it's been a bear-bull line since 2009, and the price is still below it! Night
SP:SPX
by RealTima
5
SPX Model Trading Plans for THU. 01/26Good News Bad News? At the open, markets seem to be buoyant on the GDP and on Tesla earnings. It may not take much for the markets to interpret the good news on the GDP front as bad news on the interest rates. Our trading plans published yesterday, Tue. 01/24, stated: "With yesterday's daily close above 3985, our models have flipped to a bullish bias and will remain bullish while the index is above 4000. Nevertheless, models indicate a rather choppy market while the index is below 4015". Yesterday, the index closed just about 1 point above the 4015 level, and our models are closely monitoring that level. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models currently are in a neutral bias. Models indicate going short on the close if the daily close is below 4000, with a 35 point trailing stop. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for THU. 01/26: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4044, 4024, 4012, or 4002 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4040, 4021, 4009, or 3997 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit long exits and no explicit short exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:36 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason #chinareopen
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P500 - Pt.6 Still looking for more downsideGood morning traders! We previously explained how in both our two main scenarios we believe S&P500 will complete the bearish wolfe wave in 3600-3650 area. We are leaning towards the scenario for which we should be in wave 3 of (C) and thus we should be directed towards a lower low. Our short positions are still in place, average entry @3990.2 and stop loss @4016 for 0.3% risk. We are also short through a put option that costed us 0.1% of equity. We will update below!
UShort
by GMR-Capital
3
SPX Model Trading Plans for WED. 01/25Roller Coaster Ride - Day 2 Our trading plans published yesterday, Tue. 01/24, stated: "With yesterday's daily close above 3985, our models have flipped to a bullish bias and will remain bullish while the index is above 4000. Nevertheless, models indicate a rather choppy market while the index is below 4015". As hypothesized, the market rolled over overnight and is now on the downward move. Our positional models have negated the bullish bias overnight and are currently in a neutral bias. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models indicate going short on the close if the daily close is below 3975 and above 3960, with a 35 point trailing stop. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for WED. 01/25: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4002, 3988, 3973, 3958, or 3937 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3984, 3968, 3955, or 3931 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate long exits on a cross below 3995, and no explicit short exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:46 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason #chinareopen
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SPX Model Trading Plans for TUE. 01/24Earnings Earnings Everywhere... With yesterday's daily close above 3985, our models have flipped to a bullish bias and will remain bullish while the index is above 4000. Nevertheless, models indicate a rather choppy market while the index is below 4015. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models indicate going short on the close if the daily close is between 3980 and 3965, with a 35 point trailing stop. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for TUE. 01/24: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4016, 4002, 3988, or 3973 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4013, 3999, 3984, or 3968 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit long or short exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:36 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason #chinareopen
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SPX Is Actually Bullish | My Last Analaysis Was Invalidated When i'm wrong, i'm usually wrong very quickly. My last analysis was invalidated within 24 hours, which is ok because now we know the direction for sure. Its important to know as to why this breakout is important. A structure, as long as 264 days has been broken. A broken structure leads to change! Usually a change in trend. That does not mean we're going to shoot back up to the moon (we could), but at the very least the downtrend seems to be over. the next target is 4100, located at the previous resistance.
SP:SPXLong
by FetchTeam
SPX Model Trading Plans for MON. 01/23Earnings Earnings Everywhere... The nature and the tone of this week's earnings releases is likely to bring in some choppiness into the price action. According to the trading plans published on Friday, 01/20: "If the index closes above 3950 level, our models will switch from the cautiously bearish bias to a neutral bias. A daily close above 3985 will see our models flip to bullish bias". As such, our models are now sporting a neutral bias, with these levels still applicable. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models indicate going short on the close if the daily close is between 3950 and 3935, with a 35 point trailing stop. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for MON. 01/23: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4002, 3988, 3973, or 3951 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3999, 3968, or 3947 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate long exits on a break below 3984, and short exits on a break above 3957 for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:36 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason #chinareopen
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
4
Flight of the stock market for another confirmation!Hello trader Today I have prepared a new idea for you. Like and subscribe to the channel there is a lot of useful information✅ Previously, he singled out a global countertrend and the asset received a reaction from the trend line to the 3888 zone. At the moment, on the daily chart, you can see another pull to the global countertrend line, most likely we can again see the reaction from this line approximately to the support zone 3880-3750 Also, do not forget that the next week will be filled with fundamental reports of large companies and this brought strong volatility to the stock market. As I said earlier, the giants' reports may not be entirely positive and this may cause strong sales.
SP:SPXShort
by DanilBlinkov
Will SPX's previous support attract buyers?US500 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 3875 (stop at 3855) Continued downward momentum from 4013 resulted in the pair posting net daily losses yesterday. An overnight positive theme in Equities has led to a higher open this morning. The 361.8% Fibonacci extension level of the 4016-3977 move is at 3875. A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 3875. There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited. Our profit targets will be 3928 and 3990 Resistance: 3928 / 3960 / 3992 Support: 3882 / 3875 / 3850 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by OANDA
1
SPX Model Trading Plans for THU. 01/19Upside Momentum Broken Down - Day 2 In our plans published Monday, 01/09, we stated: "The index is now approaching the resistance band in the range of 3960-4002, and the price action in this range determines the next leg". The lower bounds of this range has been decisively broken down yesterday. Our models are adapting a cautiously bearish bias while the index is below 3950. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models indicate going long on an intra-day break above 3905 and going short on an intra-day break below 3895, with a trailing stop of 35 points. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for THU. 01/19: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4002, 3963, 3905, or 3882 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3947, 3900, or 3876 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate long exits on a break below 3996, and short exits on a break above 3953 for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason #chinareopen
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SPX - Are you ready for this?SPX approaching a downsloping resistance. It may fakeout above the trendline to trick traders but don't get it twisted. This bear market rally is almost done and it's a time for a major move. Lower high after lower high is suggesting downtrend continuation. Are you ready for a 17 % dump? If you are not ready, this is a friendly reminder that it may be a right time to close your longs and enter shorts or stay on the sideline. It may take some time so be patient! Good luck!
SP:SPXShort
by vf_investment
18
Just going to leave this here for SPX BULLS...! Happy 2023!!!!So looking at the uber bullish idea that we have bottomed whereby this was some wave 4 which is completed... and now we start some blow-off the top for the next few years.... .....so....,,, in current now times/terms.... let's say we completed the A wave (approx 50% fib), making a B wave now back to 4000 (61%), then go back down to 3720s to finish wave 2 (61%).. We end up making an inverted head and shoulders in the above occurrence as well with a 20% move on neckline breakout.. -> this takes us to all-time highs on spx500usd. OR taking the wave 1 projections 1 to 1 or 161% we should get to 4500s then proceed through the year and work out way to approx 5000-5200 peak as we get bullish with pivot news. Following the FED pivot we dump back to re-test 4000 level, hold it successfully and start the next bull market wave 3 up which will be INSANE! SEE YOU ON THE OTHER SIDE!
BLACKBULL:SPX500Long
by davy101
1