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US SPX 500

SPX Model Trading Plans for WED. 01/18Earnings, Inflation, and China Re-start In our trading plans published Monday, 01/09, we stated: "The index is now approaching the resistance band in the range of 3960-4002, and the price action in this range determines the next leg". In our trading plans published yesterday, Tuesday 01/17, we wrote: "This range is still in effect for today's session. Models indicate potential risk to the upside than to the downside, so bears might need to be cautious and nimble". These words are still applicable for today's session. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models are currently flat and indicate staying flat until otherwise indicated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for WED. 01/18: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4021, 4002, or 3986 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4018, 3996, or 3983 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate long exits on a break below 4028, and short exits on a break above 3966 for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason #chinareopen
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SPX Model Trading Plans for TUE. 01/17Earnings Season Kickoff - Day 2 In our trading plans published on Friday, 01/13, we wrote: "With yesterday's post-CPI spike in the markets and this morning's early declines after the key bank earnings, the markets are sitting at a key inflection point. While today's action looks like a consolidation and the probing of a major resistance in the 200-DMA, the price action early next week could give us some early clues into the next leg of the markets". In our trading plans published Monday, 01/09, we stated: "The index is now approaching the resistance band in the range of 3960-4002, and the price action in this range determines the next leg". This range is still in effect for today's session. Models indicate potential risk to the upside than to the downside, so bears might need to be cautious and nimble. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models are currently flat and indicate staying flat until otherwise indicated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for TUE. 01/17: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4002, 3986, or 3965 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3995, 3983, or 3960 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit long exits, and no explicit short exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Buying SPX at first support.US500 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 3975 (stop at 3955) 4 positive daily performances in succession. An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning. Bespoke support is located at 3975. The 261.8% Fibonacci extension is located at 4065 from 3763 to 3878. Our profit targets will be 4022 and 4065 Resistance: 4022 / 4065 / 4137 Support: 3975 / 3920 / 3902 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by OANDA
SPX (S&P500 Index) - Potential Breakout Before Earnings 01/2023 The SPX (S&P500 Index) price is attempting to breakout above $4000, as earning season kicks off on 1/17/2023. Bullish scenario: Inverse Head-and-Shoulder price pattern breaks out above $4000 resistance neckline zone. Resistance targets would then be $4085, $4300, $4600. Bearish scenario: Double-top price pattern rejects price and drops back down to $3900, $3800, $3600. The bottom of the yellow descending wedge trendlines could be an area of support. Note: be aware of any corporate earnings, breaking/global/fundamental news that could override technical chart setups. Fibonacci retracement levels were selected from 3/2020 to 1/2022.
SP:SPX
by NoFomoCharts
1
SPX Model Trading Plans for FRI. 01/13Earnings Season Kickoff With yesterday's post-CPI spike in the markets and this morning's early declines after the key bank earnings, the markets are sitting at a key inflection point. While today's action looks like a consolidation and the probing of a major resistance in the 200-DMA, the price action early next week could give us some early clues into the next leg of the markets. In our trading plans published Monday, 01/09, we stated: "The index is now approaching the resistance band in the range of 3960-4002, and the price action in this range determines the next leg". This range is still in effect for today's session. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models are currently flat and indicate staying flat until otherwise indicated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for FRI. 01/12: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4002, 3974, or 3936 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3968 or 3930 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit long exits, and short exits on a cross above 3917 for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
1
SPX Model Trading Plans for THU. 01/12Inflation Numbers Good, but Not Great The CPI numbers and Initial Jobless Claims this morning have not really provided any directional thrust other than a huge whipsaw. As of nearly one hour into the release, there is really no directional catalyst on the radar for today. Our models indicate choppy trading while the index is between the broader range of 3900-3965 on a daily close basis, with a mildly bullish bias while above 3965 but below 4002. The index has to clear 4002 for the bullish bias to settle in. In our trading plans published yesterday, Monday, 01/09, we stated: "The index is now approaching the resistance band in the range of 3960-4002, and the price action in this range determines the next leg". This range is still in effect for today's session. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models are currently flat and indicate staying flat until otherwise indicated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for THU. 01/12: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4002, 3987, 3965, 3953, or 3936 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3997, 3961, or 3930 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit long exits, and short exits on a cross above 3903 for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:41 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #cpi
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SPX Model Trading Plans for WED. 01/11Choppy, Range-trading Today In our trading plans published yesterday, Monday, 01/09, we stated: "The index is now approaching the resistance band in the range of 3960-4002, and the price action in this range determines the next leg". The index failed nearing the lower end of the resistance band and got repelled from there strongly. With the CPI numbers and Initial Jobless Claims coming out tomorrow, there is really no directional catalyst on the radar for today. Our models indicate choppy trading while the index is between the broader range of 3900-3955 on a daily close basis. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models are currently flat and indicate staying flat until otherwise indicated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for WED. 01/11: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3946, 3932, 3916, or 3904 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3943 or 3897 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate long exits on a cross below 3901 and short exits on a cross above 3903 for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:45 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #rates
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
2
SPX Model Trading Plans for TUE. 01/10Resistance Band Held Yesterday In our trading plans published yesterday, Monday, 01/09, we stated: "The index is now approaching the resistance band in the range of 3960-4002, and the price action in this range determines the next leg". The index failed nearing the lower end of the resistance band and got repelled from there strongly. Our models indicate choppy trading while the index is between the broader range of 3900-3955 on a daily close basis. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models are currently flat and indicate staying flat until otherwise indicated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for TUE. 01/10: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3932, 3916, or 3903  with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3911 or 3897 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate long exits on a cross below 3902 and short exits on a cross above 3903 for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 01:01 pm ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #rates #nfp
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Buying SPX at previous resistance levels.US500 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 3867 (stop at 3842) Selling pressure from 3951 resulted in all the initial daily gains being overturned. An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning. Bespoke support is located at 3867. A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 3815. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 3933 and 3951 Resistance: 3933 / 3951 / 4137 Support: 3867 / 3850 / 3812 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by OANDA
SPX Broke bullish Now What?In the last SPX post, I started to doubt my bearish scenario of the index, by saying that the price looks bullish on the short term. Now that we've seen a short term pump to the resistance, I wanted to give an update. Right now, the upper level of the resistance zone has been touched. This begs the question: Are we going to see a break of this resistance zone. If that happens, I find it extremely likely that the resistance of the channel will break aswell. However, since we're at a resistance level, we have to be cautious about the following events. Right now i'll switch from bullish to neutral, because I want to see whats going to happen next.
SP:SPX
by FetchTeam
1
SPX Model Trading Plans for MON. 01/09Post-NFP Momentum Building Up...for Now In our trading plans published on Thursday, 12/22, we stated: "Our models reiterate range-bound trading while the index is within the broader 3810-3860 range on a daily close basis". And, our plans published on Friday, 01/06, we stated: "Our models indicate continued choppy trading while the index is within this range". Friday's strong spike up cleared this range on a daily close basis, and this morning's price action is clearly building on top of that. The index is now approaching the resistance band in the range of 3960-4002, and the price action in this range determines the next leg. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models are currently flat and indicate staying flat until otherwise indicated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for MON. 01/09: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3941, 3962, 3977, or 4002 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3938, 3958, 3974, or 3997 with a 9-point trailing stop. Models indicate no explicit long exits and no explicit short exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:40 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #rates #nfp
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P500, was Friday (06 Jan 23) really Bull move?As we close out the first trading week of 2023, all 3 US indices close on Friday with a 2+% gain. What a great start to 2023! Is it really, though? If you think the market rallied on higher than expected NFP and lower unemployment rates, this is your first mistake. For most of 2022, the market had considered any economic strength is bad for stocks because it would mean higher inflation and a lower chance of a Fed Pivot. We saw this time and time again in 2022 when the market dropped on lower unemployment rates, higher wages, and higher retail sales. Even Jerome Powell has stated countless times in FOMC that the tight labor market is terrible for bringing down inflation. What caused the market rally, then? The ISM Non-Manufacturing Report. What you see here is the 1-hour chart of the S&P500. The market did rally on the NFP report, but it came back down immediately. However, at 11 pm, when ISM Non-Manufacturing numbers came out, it gave the market confidence to rally. What is the ISM Non-Manufacturing Report? It measures the business activity in the non-manufacturing sector, mainly the service sector. The service sector accounts for 80% of US business activities, and manufacturing accounts for the remaining 20%. After 30 consecutive months of activity growth (Since May 2020), the Service sector has contracted. Before last Friday, the last time Service Sector went into contraction was during the Covid19 crash and the Housing Crisis. So this is a piece of terrible news, then? Why did the market rally? The market believes that a weakening economic condition will trigger Federal Reserve to cut the rate. The market still believes in this delusional Fed Pivot narrative. Time and time again, Jerom Powell will come out during FOMC and kill the rally. During Dec 2022 press conference, Powell explicitly stated, "No Pivot in 2023" (go see the conference for yourself). The market is still fighting the Fed. The 10 Year Yield and 2 Year Yield diving 4% also proves this delusional "Fed Pivot" mindset. The Fed is raising FFR to keep the rate high to discourage cheap money. But if the 10Year and 2 Year rates are crashing on the backdrop of a delusional scenario, it will make the Fed's job even harder. They even stated that in the December meeting minutes. "Unwarranted easing in financial condition, ESPECIALLY IF DRIVEN BY A MISPERCEPTION BY THE PUBLIC or the committee's reaction function, would complicate the committee's effort to restore price stability." Once again, this market rally has no legs to stand on. When the FOMC decision arrives on 31 Jan 2023, Powell will stop this rally dead on its track again. Or maybe the CPI number coming this Thursday may slap some sense into the market. Do not get tricked (again). This is not the first time. Both July 2022 and October 2022 rallies were also based on a Pivot delusion. And it did not end well. If you are long-biased, do not overstay your welcome. I will be heading to these two key event with a short bias portfolio. NOTE: Banks and Big Techs earnings are coming up!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by NimbusCapital
SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline Next WeekSPX completed a double zigzag correction originating from the December 22 low terminating at Friday's 3906 high. That 3906 high marks the completion of W2 to set up the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period. Below 3852 will greatly increase confidence that the W2 high will hold to immediately target 3819-3795, initially. Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3622-3604-3570, respectively. A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
SP:SPXShort
by TheElliottWaveClub
1
SPX Model Trading Plans for FRI. 01/06 - NFP FridayNFP Data Mixed - Be Wary of Jumping the Gun In our trading plans published on Thursday, 12/22, we stated: "Our models reiterate range-bound trading while the index is within the broader 3810-3860 range on a daily close basis". In spite of a lot of spiky price action since then, and despite the initial pop today after the NFP numbers, the index is still within this range as of 9:50am ET, the third full trading session in the New Year. Our models indicate continued choppy trading while the index is within this range. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models are currently flat and indicate staying flat until otherwise indicated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for FRI. 01/06: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3826, 3838, 3857, or 3872 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3820, 3830, 3852, or 3867 with a 10-point trailing stop.  Models indicate long exits on a break below 3833 and 3880, and short exits on a break above 3835. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #rates #nfp
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P to head higher to $3931-$4039, then reverse and break lows?Similar to my analysis on BTC, I think we're in for a large bull trap here. In the very immediate term, I could see the S&P retracing down to support at $3686 or so before making a higher low, and then moving higher. Largely, I think the targets on the upside to look for over the next 2-3 weeks are $3931 and $4039. That's where I'd start getting cautious again. If we can't surpass those levels to the upside, that sets up a big move lower. There is a small possibility that price can make it all the way up to $4110-4120 or so, but if it does that, and can't surpass that level, it puts in a double top and still sets up a move lower. Really to rule out the possibility of going lower, we'd have to convincingly break $4120 and test it as support. I think the next 2-3 weeks will be positive risk. Then after that, I think towards the back half of November, there will be some catalyst that brings the markets lower (maybe elections, maybe something else?). If this plays out, I see price breaking the recent lows and finding support somewhere in the low $3k region. Either at $3360-$3288. Thats' where I'd want to be a buyer of risk for the mid-term (1-4 months). After that point, I think we'll see a decent rally in risk into Feb-March and that's where I'd want to be cautious again as I think we'll see one last leg down in equities that takes us below $3k. Good luck. Let's see how it all plays out.
SP:SPX
by benjihyam
4