The bullish scenario for SPXIn my last analysis, I presented a bearish scenario for the SPX. I was convinced that the index would drop because of the following reasons:
1: The price is falling within an hugh falling channel.
2: In that channel, the price recently made an rising wedge, which broke bearish, making it likely that the price will continue to fall down.
3: SPX broke the resistance zone, which was support at that time.
We did see the falling down part. However, the price seems to be finding support at the mid level of the rising wedge. This begs the question: "Is the price actually bearish?"
At least on the short term it seems like it isnt. I am intereseted to see wether the SPX can rise above the resistance zone, while breaking the resistance of the channel. For now, i'll stay short term bullish with a longer term bias to lower prices.
US SPX 500
SPX Model Trading Plans for WED. 01/04New Year - Same Old Range In Play
In our trading plans published on Thursday, 12/22, we stated: "Our models reiterate range-bound trading while the index is within the broader 3810-3860 range on a daily close basis".
In spite of a lot of spiky price action since then, the index is still within this range as of today, the second full trading session in the New Year. Our models indicate continued choppy trading while the index is within this range.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models are currently flat and indicate staying flat until otherwise indicated.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for WED. 01/04:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3822, 3833, 3856, or 3862 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3818, 3830, 3850, or 3858 with a 10-point trailing stop.
Models indicate long exits on a break below 3870, and short exits on a break above 3812. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01 am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #rates #nfp #earnings #earningsseason #midterms #elections #cpi #fedpivot #shortsqueeze
Hot week for the SPX500 stock market!Hello trader Today I have prepared a new idea for you. Like and subscribe to the channel there is a lot of useful information✅
This week is full of events, there will be many indicators from the data, be prepared for volatility in the stock and cryptocurrency market!
Key events this week:
Wednesday, January 4th.
-USA - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) - 18:00 Moscow time
-USA - The number of open vacancies in the labor market (Nov) - 18:00 Moscow time
-USA - Publication of FOMC minutes - 22:00 Moscow time
Thursday, January 5
-USA - Nonfarm Employment Change from ADP (Dec) - 16:15 MSK
-USA - Initial Jobless Claims - 4:30 PM PT
Friday, January 6
-US - Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec) - 16:30 GMT
-USA - Unemployment Rate (Dec) - 16:30 Moscow time
SXP500 Buy / Sell ??Pair :- SPX500 Index
Description :-
After CONSOLIDATION Phase it made a Long IMPULSE Move in Long Time Frame
We also have BREAK OF STRUCTURE
In Short Term we have Corrective Pattern " BULLISH CHANNEL " we need to wait until it Breaks the UTL or LTL
We need Strong Rejection / Breakout from DEMAND / SUPPORT then we can have a Clear Direction
Selling SPX into current highs.US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 3895 (stop at 3945)
Posted Mixed Daily results for the last 9 days.
Intraday, and we are between bespoke support and resistance 3747-3895.
Rallies continue to attract sellers.
The medium term bias is neutral.
Our profit targets will be 3747 and 3700
Resistance: 3895 / 4028 / 4140
Support: 3747 / 3700 / 3515
Risk Disclaimer
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S&P 500 Big Picture Update - Bearish ScenarioMany investors are already assuming a breakout from the upper trend line and thus a continuation of the uptrend.
The economic sentiment is still bearish , many companies now have to bear the high capital and energy costs and many companies are still highly overvalued.
Therefore, today we would like to introduce you to a bearish scenario that is likely to occur, the Double ZigZag .
Structure of a Double ZigZag
- Superior: (W) - (X) - (Y)
- Subordinate: (ABC) - (ABC) - (ABC)
- Subwaves: (12345 - ABC - 12345) - (ABC) - (12345 - ABC - 12345)
Current situation
If this scenario is correct, we would be in the last sub-wave ABC and now see the last downward movement as sub-wave 12345. This would complete the last subordinate (ABC) wave.
This scenario would be confirmed if in the next few days/weeks the SPX initiates a trend reversal to the downside. We already see a weaker SPX struggling to pump above the yellow highlighted resistance. Even if we could make it above this, it would have to be retested first and thus hold above resistance.
We now expect the SPX to either make another small breakout to the upside before correcting back down, or for the SPX to correct right away.
Strongly changing market
The market is very difficult to assess at the moment. Many economic news are affecting the markets very strongly, new political and economic changes are coming at a record pace and most investors are still afraid to lose money. Thus, this Double ZigZag scenario is one of several possible scenarios. We will post a bullish scenario in the next few days.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JAN 01
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JAN 01
Welcome us into 2023! May the year bring you much Prosperity!
Market presented scenario (1) Short at rejection of 4094. Due to
the limited movement, levels for the coming week will remain.
Scenario Planning:
1) Short at rejection of 4094 / 3928
2) Long if previous channel + 3502 to 3580 becomes support
(confluence)
Weekly: Low vol down bar close about middle = No supply
Daily: Low vol down bar close at high = No Supply
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4094 3928
3580 3502 3231
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
s&p500 predict it will move downward toward the last supportwe see that s&p500 is downward .
But at the begining of the new year we are waiting it to reach the support shown in the graph.
if it reaches it . we can enter with a strong long position and wait for good results.
The most important is not entering at anyplace. Missing some point is more important that be in trouble with getting margined in this market.
we must keep stoploss as shown here
S&P500 Analysis 29.12.2022Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
SPX500USD Is Going Down! Short!
Hello,Friends!
Indecision in the market is changing
Towards a well defined bearish sentiment
And the price action on the lower timeframes
Is clearly supporting this narratve
Therefore, I think it is a goodidea to go short!
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
SPX Model Trading Plans for THU. 12/22Next Support Level - Confirmed - Day 2
In our trading plans published on Monday, 12/19, we stated: "...the index is now testing the next key support level around the 3825-3835 range. Our models are indicating a range-bound trading while the index is trading within the broader 3810-3830 range on a daily close basis. If you are short, you might want to take profits on a break out of this range. If you are itching to go long, you might want to wait until the range is broken out of to the upside".
In the trading plans published yesterday, Wed., 12/20, we stated: "That support level is confirmed as held by our models, and if you followed the plans you should be long going into the open today. If not, you might want to wait to go long as our models indicate range-bound trading while the index is below 3866".
This morning session's first hour's action has been within the range of 3810-3853, still holding the lower and upper bounds from our earlier trading plans. Our models reiterate range-bound trading while the index is within the broader 3810-3860 range on a daily close basis. Seasonality effects such as Santa Clause rally (anticipation/positioning and unraveling of the same), Year-end-tax-loss selling, January effect etc.) could lead to sudden spikes in both directions.
Unless you "must" trade, it might be a good idea to take it easy and sit on the sidelines until the new year, especially while the index is within the above range.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models closed out the short from Thursday, 12/15 (opened at 3893.51) with a profit of 78.01 index points and are currently flat. Models indicate staying flat until otherwise indicated.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for THU. 12/22:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3810, 3818, 3833, or 3862 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3805, 3820, 3835, or 3857 with a 10-point trailing stop.
Models indicate long exits on a break below 3815, and short exits on a break above 3815 or 3840. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01 am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #rates #nfp #earnings #earningsseason #midterms #elections #cpi #fedpivot #shortsqueeze
SPX 500 Next Move#SPX500
Completed Impulse Correction and Making Impulse Again
Rising Wedge as a Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame #STF and Breakout the Lower Trend Line #LTL and Possible that it will Complete its Retracement at Fibonacci Level - 61.80%
Completed " ABC " Correction and " 1 " Impulse Wave
SPX500USD Will Move Lower! Sell!
Hello,Friends!
Indecision in the market is changing
Towards a well defined bearish sentiment
And the price action on the lower timeframes
Is clearly supporting this narratve
Therefore, I think it is a goodidea to go short!
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
SPX - Limited Upside LikelyThere's a ton of bears out there. There's no doubt about that. I am focusing on the structure here...
Now that the narrative is there, I am going to outline what I currently see here. In the next couple days, it looks like SPX is going to find some key resistance at the 3900-3920 area based on a measurement of what I predict is wave 3. This means we've got another low to put in before the year is over. Note - 3795 is likely not the low of this move down that we've seen since December 13th.
Corrections are complicated and are designed to confuse you and steal money from overleveraged traders without any plans. This is no different. Plenty of bears got their faces ripped off today so you need to be able to adapt to change as it comes.
Watch the 5 wave advance from the lows that we have here. Wait for a pullback, and then a completion of the cycle at 3915-3920 area. That's our 50% internal retracement. We have an area at the 38.2% currently which is the highest probability area for a wave 4 rejection (rejection in this case specifically).
One day at a time we will continue to dominate the market.
SPX Model Trading Plans for WED. 12/21
Next Support Level - Confirmed
In our trading plans published on Monday, 12/19, we stated: "...the index is now testing the next key support level around the 3825-3835 range. Our models are indicating a range-bound trading while the index is trading within the broader 3810-3830 range on a daily close basis. If you are short, you might want to take profits on a break out of this range. If you are itching to go long, you might want to wait until the range is broken out of to the upside".
That support level is confirmed as held by our models, and if you followed the plans you should be long going into the open today. If not, you might want to wait to go long as our models indicate range-bound trading while the index is below 3866. If you are short, you might want to take profits and go flat.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models closed out the short from Thursday, 12/15 (opened at 3893.51) yesterday with a profit of 78.01 index points and are currently flat. Models indicate staying flat until otherwise indicated.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for WED. 12/21:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3838, 3848, or 3866 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3860, 3843, or 3830 with a 10-point trailing stop.
Models indicate long exits on a break below 3863 or 3834, and short exits on a break above 3820. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:40 am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES - READ CAREFULLY:
(i) This article contains personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.
(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.
(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.
(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.
(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.
#spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #rates #nfp #earnings #earningsseason #midterms #elections #cpi #fedpivot #shortsqueeze
Selling SPX at previous support.US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 3909 (stop at 3963)
A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 3776.
An overnight positive theme in Equities has led to a higher open this morning.
Intraday, and we are between bespoke support and resistance 3893-3503.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
Our profit targets will be 3746 and 3503
Resistance: 3893 / 3909 / 4055
Support: 3746 / 3503 / 3491
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
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gg?12 year count here,
wave 5 algo target has been reached.
was hoping for an expansion, but there's a chance we aren't going to get it.
if the top has indeed been put in, the downside target on spy sits at $142
this will take many years to play out, and it isn't going to go straight down either.
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ps. i'm not saying that the top is in, but i'm saying it is possible.
👇
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maybe these are the real trials we must undergo before we truly can get to the treasure.
S&P500 got that short so now waiting..So sent this bearish pattern to a friend of mine the other day before it actually to be turned out right, so now I think we are going a for a new low 3.3k seems like coming soon, generally the market is bad, however kind of a bit late to short, so imo cashing out and waiting to long/buy again seems like the way to go and imo 3.2-3.3k seems like the buy zone for me, good luck and merry christmas everyone! :)
SPX quick weekend updateIm on the road all day today, my connection flight is being delayed over 4hrs now.
Had no time do a research, so can be wrong or can be right:)
First of all Fri low came exactly on CPI gap open! I did tweet about it on Fri that I expected that number to be at least good for a bounce. It just stopped there.
Closing above afternoon highs is usually a bullish sign going into Monday.
But making new lows on Fri means that more weakens to come next week, which I do expect to happen with a low to come on the 22nd.
21st is a winter solstice, can mark a low or a high, I expect a low in 3750SPX zone.
My best thinking is that we either make a low to 3808-12SPX tomorrow or just go up from the open to 3950-60SPX high but Tuesday am.
There is also a resistance at 3900-11SPX and 3933SPX.
If we do see 3808SPX tested in am, I will be only long for a Tuesday high, then short for the 22nd low.
Timing is everything in out business, so that would be my plan for tomorrow's trading.
Hope I get home at least not as late.
BTW there will be a big announcement tomorrow, stay tuned!
Have a profitable week!