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US SPX 500

SPX Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 SPX Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.16%, up from 3.08% from last week according to DVOL data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 71th percentile, while according to VIX, we are on 31th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 2.72% movement Bearish: 2.4% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 15.2% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 4072 BOT: 3805 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 35% probability we are going to touch previous high 4050 67% probability we are going to touch previous low 3915 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 13% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index Daily timeframe indicates 0% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index 4H timeframe indicates -40% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
SP:SPX
by exlux
Selling SPX in a range.US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 3969 (stop at 3994) Posted Mixed Daily results for the last 3 days. Intraday, and we are between bespoke support and resistance 3913-3969. The medium term bias remains bearish. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 3913 and 3700 Resistance: 3969 / 4050 / 4097 Support: 3913 / 3700 / 3506 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
CITYINDEX:USSP500CFDShort
by Saxo
1
SPX weekend updateThis will be my weekend update. Im flying out tonight for my birthday week, will be in transit into second part of Sunday, if will have time, I will update more charts from the airport. For those who know me from the site I was on for 10 years, I will be seeing Tracey on this vacation trip, so very exited to finally meet her in person We trade every day and Im very exited to trade with her in person. So stay tuned for Twitter life updates. Ok lets get back to the report: I had no chance to check the numbers on Friday, but SPX closed right at my maj support level 3933 (close was at 3934 and futs dived down lower). - So its either a gap up or gap down scenario for Monday! - Resistance is at 4028-34 (Maj resistance) - Maj Support is at 3933 and if lost (gaped down on Monday) then 3850 and 3808SPX (next Maj support) becomes the next target A close below 3808 makes the ideal target next - 3744-48 As noted on Thursday update, if we wont take 3970 it will be very bearish, the high was at 3977 on Friday and you know where it closed! So that call was successfully fulfilled. As noted (grey trendlines above Fri highs) on the chart, you can see that the price rejected some broken trendlines from the bottom, its negative. Close below Thursday low and at the daily lows is negative by itself and usually ends up with continuation on Monday. This is a 1h chart, look at RSI and MACD, both look terrible and not even close to be oversold! Another negative signal Fibs targeting right into 3795-3814SPX zone, inline with my next Maj Support level on closing level - 3808SPX Europe close was at the highs, so they are trapped, big! Another negative signal VIX closed above its mid daily Bollinger for 3rd day straight, positive for VIX negative signal for the markets. Will we get a gap down and a crash like move down on Monday I dont know, but the setup is there. On the other hand if we open at low 3900 (max down to 3889-95 is allowed) and start reversing, it can be a very strong rally day! So its all up to 3900 level on Monday open, ideally we just gap down below it and dont even look back (can just re-test 3908SPX max). then I can make a case of just riding the wave all the way down to 3800 all in one day! CPI is on Tuesday, that would be super interesting, as IF, again Big IF there is at 5% down day on Monday and we close near 3748 gap close, then it can be another great lotto call for another Tuesday big a$$ red open like we had on the Oct 13th. Which will be bought for at least a good size bounce going into the Fed Interest rate decision. Which (Fed day) I think will make the price spike up and then reverse hard. If that happens, then we should see 3580 or low 3600 by Dec 19th. From Dec 19th low, it will be only a long play for me going into early if not mid Jan. This is my pathway going into the next week and EOY. Next week its def can be the craziest week this year! Well and I have a birthday coming up next week as well:) Here is a poll to take, it closes on Sunday midnight, feel free to share with anyone at any site you are on. Lets get a clear picture of the sentiment out there: strawpoll.com So far 40 already made their bets Have a great weekend and do as much research as possible for the next week, as who ever gets trapped, it will be very painful! Please note I can be totally wrong with my prediction, but I have to trade my own homework. If the wind changed to a different direction, I will quickly update my view on the current market situation. Tima
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
38
SP500 a short term outlook 🦐SP500 on the daily chart after the recent high tested the descending trendline at the 0.618 Fibonacci level and started a retracement move to the 0.5. The price is now moving over a daily support and a possible break can happen. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for the US market open and if the market will break and close below i will consider a nice short order according to the Plancton's strategy rules. –––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by InkyGrip
10
🎄ho-ho-ho! ------ it was evident that christmas was near, all of the reds and the greens, the bull and bear blood has been shed, and beautifully splattered all over the tree🎄 ------ two things to look out for if you're feeling jolly this year, 1. es has to hold 3874.50. 2. es has to get back above 4020 (with force). >if these two variables are met, and enough momentum is created, a full blown expansion into the 4200~4300 range into the end of year will be expected. >failure to meet a single one of these variables, and es will fall right off a cliff, right along with santa. ------ Ho Ho Ho! 🎅
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
SPX important to hold 3900 level on any test/if any tomorrowIdeal pathway for tomorrow is either gap down or sell after the open to mark new lows in low 3900SPX (3896-3908), then a strong reversal into Fri open Im watching two levels for tomorrow on the upside: - 3965-70SPX - 4000SPX Holding 4k will be important, as it will be a text book test of the broken down bull trend to confirm that the price has marked the top and it's on the way to make new lows. I wont be surprised if the price overshoots to 4025-35 and even 4060+ and reverse hard from those levels. So expect unexpected Here is a zoomed in chart for tomorrow Open above today's highs will be bullish. If it does, watch today's high as support. Maj support tomorrow on closing level is 3933-34SPX, its a bear bull line at this point, closing below we will see mid 38 hundred next! Resistance mentioned above and maj resistance is 4119-20SPX, closing above will push price to mid 41 hundred and even 4200+ Im not in that camp, but cant rule out mid 4k test as overshoot/stop run move. Trading cycle is bearish now, all the way into 19-20th low! Dont want 4120SPX being taken, it will flip to bullish if it does. My trading pathway for tomorrow is to buy am lows and ride it at least into the close or at least 3960-70SPX
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
SPX is at support levelNothing much to add since yesterday's updates. Im looking up for a breakdown trendline test. If its very bearish, then it can just get to 3965-70SPX and stop there. That would mean much lower levels are coming this month! Ideal pathway is to test 4k level and reverse down. That would be your shorting opportunity The whole move off CPI will be erased next! If it happens before the CPI on the 13th, be ware of a move down to 3400-3500!!! So be careful if long here! especially if we stop at 3970SPX
SP:SPX
by RealTima
SPX Model Trading Plans for WED. 12/07Fed Pivot Hope Turned Into a Bull Trap; Approaching Support In our trading plans published post-NFP on Fri., 12/02, we wrote: "After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning's Non Farm Payrolls data could be suggesting that it could potentially be an "irrational exuberance", and the futures' reaction so far post-NFP points to this proving to be the case. Of course, how the index trades in the regular session and how it closes today will hold further clues to this". Last two sessions turned the recent spike up into a bull trap. However, our models are indicating that the index is likely to find some support around the 3910-3915 range. Longs might want to wait to see if the index holds this level, and shorts need to be nimble in taking their profits if it does. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models went into today's regular session with a short opened on Monday, 12/05, at 4014.57 with a 38-point trailing stop which was tightened to a 33-point trailing stop on Tue, 12/06. This trail from yesterday's low of 3918.39 was hit at 3951.39 within the first ten minutes of today's open, closing out the short with a gain of 73.18 index points. Models indicate staying flat until posted otherwise. Positional Models assume that we are trading an instrument that trades the futures hours, with the trailing and other stops effective overnight. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for WED. 12/07: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3948, 3931, or 3912 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3926 or 3908 with a 10-point trailing stop.  Models indicate long exits on a break below 3958, and short exits on a break above 3893. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 01:01 pm ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. ***** No Idle Analysis-paralysis here! Only actionable trading plans - every morning! And, transparent, verifiable results of each and every trading plan, every night! LET THE RESULTS SPEAK FOR OUR MODELS! See for yourself how our Morning Trading Plans have been doing for the last one month or one year or since started! ***** NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #rates, #earnings, #midterms, #elections, #cpi, #fedpivot, #shortsqueeze, #bulltrap, #nfp, #nonfarmpayrolls, #jobs, #pmi, #ism
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
1
SPX Model Trading Plans for TUE. 12/06Fed Pivot Hope Turning Into a Bull Trap Nightmare? Day 3 In our trading plans published post-NFP on Fri., 12/02, we wrote: "After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning's Non Farm Payrolls data could be suggesting that it could potentially be an "irrational exuberance", and the futures' reaction so far post-NFP points to this proving to be the case. Of course, how the index trades in the regular session and how it closes today will hold further clues to this". Yesterday morning's hotter than expected ISM numbers, the post-PMI reaction, and this morning's market action so far are all lending more plausibility to our hypothesis that the recent spike up could be turning into a bull trap. The price action today and tomorrow could give us a confirmation. Bulls need to be cautious, and bears need to be nimble. Positional Trading Models: Yesterday's published positional models closed 6.51 points in gains and went into the close with an open short at 4014.57 and a 38-point trailing stop. For today's session, models indicate tightening the trailing stop to 33-points. If stopped out, the models will stay flat for the rest of the session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for MON. 12/05: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4052, 4028, or 4003 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4048, 4024, or 4000 with a 10-point trailing stop. Models indicate long exits on a break below 4064, and short exits on a break above 3992. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. ***** No Idle Analysis-paralysis here! Only actionable trading plans - every morning! And, transparent, verifiable results of each and every trading plan, every night! LET THE RESULTS SPEAK FOR OUR MODELS! See for yourself how our Morning Trading Plans have been doing for the last one month or one year or since started! ***** NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. (iv) Positional Models assume that we are trading an instrument that trades the futures hours, with the trailing and other stops effective overnight. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #rates, #earnings, #midterms, #elections, #cpi, #fedpivot, #shortsqueeze, #bulltrap, #nfp, #nonfarmpayrolls, #jobs, #pmi, #ism
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
1
SPX Huge Short incomingLooking for the benchmark index to go up a little more in to the 4hr poi and daily descending trendline resistance before dropping to make new lows. Mid to end of November should mark the start of a new and more aggressive downwards movement where we could see price reach the 2750 level. This is a very important level as it represents the 50% from ATHs and the 08/09 financial crisis where we saw unprecedented drops. Once we reach this level and rebalance the COVID-19 crash, I'd start looking to hedge buys into the market.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Turtlesoup_Maestro
5
SPX Model Trading Plans for MON. 12/05Fed Pivot Hope Turning Into a Bull Trap Nightmare? Day 2 In our trading plans published post-NFP on Fri., 12/02, we wrote: "After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning's Non Farm Payrolls data could be suggesting that it could potentially be an "irrational exuberance", and the futures' reaction so far post-NFP points to this proving to be the case. Of course, how the index trades in the regular session and how it closes today will hold further clues to this". This morning's hotter than expected ISM numbers and the post-PMI reaction lending more plausibility to our hypothesis that the recent spike up could be turning into a bull trap. Bulls need to be cautious, and bears need to be patient. Positional Trading Models: For today's session, models indicate going long on a break above 4055, with a 35-point trailing stop and a hard stop at 4037, and going short on a break below 4018, with a 38-point trailing stop and a hard stop at 3026. Models also indicate instituting a break-even exit once a trade is in profit by 12 points. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for MON. 12/05: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4052, 4028, or 4003 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4048, 4024, or 4000 with a 10-point trailing stop.  Models indicate long exits on a break below 4064, and short exits on a break above 3992. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. ***** No Idle Analysis-paralysis here! Only actionable trading plans - every morning! And, transparent, verifiable results of each and every trading plan, every night! LET THE RESULTS SPEAK FOR OUR MODELS! See for yourself how our Morning Trading Plans have been doing for the last one month or one year or since started! ***** NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. (iv) Positional Models assume that we are trading an instrument that trades the futures hours, with the trailing and other stops effective overnight. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #rates, #earnings, #midterms, #elections, #cpi, #fedpivot, #shortsqueeze, #bulltrap, #nfp, #nonfarmpayrolls, #jobs, #pmi, #ism
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
1
Buying SPX at first support.US500 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 3945 (stop at 3920) A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 4015. With our medium term bias looking to fade gains and the short term bias indicating buying interest we are faced with mixed signals. Bespoke support is located at 3945. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Our profit targets will be 4012 and 4046 Resistance: 3983 / 4015 / 4046 Support: 3945 / 3906 / 3890 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
CITYINDEX:USSP500CFDLong
by Saxo
Buying SPX at support.US500 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 3958 (stop at 3927) A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 4038. Continued downward momentum from 4040 resulted in the pair posting net daily losses yesterday. Selling posted in Asia. Intraday, and we are between bespoke support and resistance 3958-4048. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Our profit targets will be 4038 and 4048 Resistance: 4038 / 4048 / 4055 Support: 3958 / 3910 / 3886 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
CITYINDEX:USSP500CFDLong
by Saxo