Es 12-13 [evening update].good evening owo.
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few words before i share my thoughts.
the market is a very complex instrument - there's never a sure path as it is completely controlled by human emotion, and complicated algorithms.
we as traders must adapt to the ever-changing market conditions, or else we risk getting left behind (simple as that).
there's a dozen different paths the market can take at any given moment, but it generally takes the path of mass destruction.
>what i mean by this, is the market doesn't care about bulls nor bears - it'll simply do whatever it takes to suck away all of their money, collectively.
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that being said,
i think a lot of people are very bearish
overly pessimistic,
terrified,
and not expecting higher prices at this time.
a very small portion of the market understands the lunar cycles,
let alone what a "mercury retrograde is \ how it impacts the global markets".
>not gonna give you an astrological lesson here - but you can keep an eye out for my videos where i dive deep into these topics sometimes.
today's sharp rejection scared the last of the bull bro's, and has sent the bear bro's into full euphoria.
what i think comes next, is an unexpected occurrence - a pure melt up phase to roughly $4300 which will make a very significant peak in this market for at least 30 days after it is reached.
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if you saw my video this morning, you know what my stance on the market is - and this is a slightly modified look to that particular idea as of today's price action.
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not financial advice, be very careful in the days ahead.
☝
💰
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US SPX 500
12-13 es intraday update ~ quick intra day update here,
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◉hidden bull present on 30m money flow
◉30m rsi almost completely reset (pending hidden bull)
◉got a few other indicators which aren't on my chart which are flashing a buy here
◉spy gap filled
◉iv crushed
◉retail - destroyed.
potential expansion into the 4200+ area if jpow does something totally unexpected tomorrow.
👇👇
Alt path is red, if we confirm a break down from here - it will get very ugly, very quickly.
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trade safe!
SPX is at support, bounce to be shorted, resistance at 4040Well who would of know about gap and crap?
My yesterday post had it all covered.
The magnitude of a gap up I had no idea about and it came quite strong, but still made a lower higher into that Yellow resistance line
That Yellow line comes from Feb 2020 high, so its a very important resistance.
I have taken several trades on the open, sold calls and bought puts, now my puts are covered and I will re short at or above 4040SPX
My first main target is at 3953SPX so my bear spread would be buy 3955 and sell 3940 all SPX exp 19th of Dec.
I did post screen short for some trades I took, it was a great trade.
I still have bear spreads I bought at the close yesterday, those should get to BE easily if we see my target today.
There is a support at 3984-88SPX, I will go long there for a bounce with a stop
es 12-13 update ~hello hello,
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my target from yesterday's post was hit,
possible it expands up one more time to 4220, but doesn't have to.
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structure suggests that 5 waves up has been, or is very close to being completed.
after 5 waves comes 3 waves,
so i'm going to be on a look out for a trap wave in the weeks ahead before the next big leg up.
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ps. i sold everything this morning, putting me 100% in cash.
ps2. ✌
Its setting up for a gap and crap move opposite of Oct 13thThis is my second try, there was an issue with posting, it reset the whole post back to empty.
All what Im thinking is that there is a possibility of the opposite Oct 13th move.
In this case it can be a gap up and crap all the way into the Fed on Wednesday.
I still cant get 3748 gap to get out from my mind and still believe it will get hit this month at minimum.
Ideally we see 3580 and reverse into the EOY.
There is a window for the low on the 15th and the 19th
Resistance is at 4028-34SPX on the closing level. Above 4034 it will go to 4100 and 4019SPX
Support is at 3933SPX, below it it will go to 3800
es 12-12 macro update ~good evening o/
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as of tonight, it looks pretty much clear to me what's going on.
of course the structure is always bound to change, so be willing to adapt to it.
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i recently shared this particular scenario not too long ago, and tonight i'm coming back to it because of the us dollar.
i'ma post my us dollar projection in the next post - be sure to check it out if you like stonks.
original post:
US500 long ideaI think we're forward for liquidity grab number 2, as you can see in the chart.Bullish divergence on RSI + after broke the support its pump hard back, max pain to the shorters with higher high.lets see
SPX is in triangle, closing below Fri close will be a huge tellSPX is in triangle, closing below Fri close will be a huge tell going into tomorrow.
I will be watching the option flow at the end of the day.
I did short NQ before the open and covered half after the open, rest got stopped on afternoon spike.
SPX Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 SPX Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.16%, up from 3.08% from last week according to DVOL data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 71th percentile,
while according to VIX, we are on 31th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 2.72% movement
Bearish: 2.4% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 15.2% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 4072
BOT: 3805
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
35% probability we are going to touch previous high 4050
67% probability we are going to touch previous low 3915
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 13% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Daily timeframe indicates 0% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
4H timeframe indicates -40% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Selling SPX in a range.US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 3969 (stop at 3994)
Posted Mixed Daily results for the last 3 days.
Intraday, and we are between bespoke support and resistance 3913-3969.
The medium term bias remains bearish.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Our profit targets will be 3913 and 3700
Resistance: 3969 / 4050 / 4097
Support: 3913 / 3700 / 3506
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
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SPX weekend updateThis will be my weekend update.
Im flying out tonight for my birthday week, will be in transit into second part of Sunday, if will have time, I will update more charts from the airport.
For those who know me from the site I was on for 10 years, I will be seeing Tracey on this vacation trip, so very exited to finally meet her in person
We trade every day and Im very exited to trade with her in person. So stay tuned for Twitter life updates.
Ok lets get back to the report:
I had no chance to check the numbers on Friday, but SPX closed right at my maj support level 3933 (close was at 3934 and futs dived down lower).
- So its either a gap up or gap down scenario for Monday!
- Resistance is at 4028-34 (Maj resistance)
- Maj Support is at 3933 and if lost (gaped down on Monday) then 3850 and 3808SPX (next Maj support) becomes the next target
A close below 3808 makes the ideal target next - 3744-48
As noted on Thursday update, if we wont take 3970 it will be very bearish, the high was at 3977 on Friday and you know where it closed!
So that call was successfully fulfilled.
As noted (grey trendlines above Fri highs) on the chart, you can see that the price rejected some broken trendlines from the bottom, its negative.
Close below Thursday low and at the daily lows is negative by itself and usually ends up with continuation on Monday.
This is a 1h chart, look at RSI and MACD, both look terrible and not even close to be oversold! Another negative signal
Fibs targeting right into 3795-3814SPX zone, inline with my next Maj Support level on closing level - 3808SPX
Europe close was at the highs, so they are trapped, big! Another negative signal
VIX closed above its mid daily Bollinger for 3rd day straight, positive for VIX negative signal for the markets.
Will we get a gap down and a crash like move down on Monday I dont know, but the setup is there.
On the other hand if we open at low 3900 (max down to 3889-95 is allowed) and start reversing, it can be a very strong rally day!
So its all up to 3900 level on Monday open, ideally we just gap down below it and dont even look back (can just re-test 3908SPX max). then I can make a case of just riding the wave all the way down to 3800 all in one day!
CPI is on Tuesday, that would be super interesting, as IF, again Big IF there is at 5% down day on Monday and we close near 3748 gap close, then it can be another great lotto call for another Tuesday big a$$ red open like we had on the Oct 13th. Which will be bought for at least a good size bounce going into the Fed Interest rate decision. Which (Fed day) I think will make the price spike up and then reverse hard. If that happens, then we should see 3580 or low 3600 by Dec 19th.
From Dec 19th low, it will be only a long play for me going into early if not mid Jan.
This is my pathway going into the next week and EOY. Next week its def can be the craziest week this year! Well and I have a birthday coming up next week as well:)
Here is a poll to take, it closes on Sunday midnight, feel free to share with anyone at any site you are on. Lets get a clear picture of the sentiment out there:
strawpoll.com
So far 40 already made their bets
Have a great weekend and do as much research as possible for the next week, as who ever gets trapped, it will be very painful!
Please note I can be totally wrong with my prediction, but I have to trade my own homework.
If the wind changed to a different direction, I will quickly update my view on the current market situation.
Tima
spx is about to ath.read the title one more time 🔺
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hello, my name's elo - and i make pretty wild predictions in the markets.
very few know who i am, and i prefer it to remain this way.
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>i'm predicting that es1! will hit ath within the next few months.
>before drippin' back down to the covid lows.
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this isn't financial advice or anything,
literally just art.
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long 3850~3800
2% - stop
tp - 4817.00
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SPX is getting close to its targetNothing has changed, SPX is on the way to its target zone
I wanted a good gap up and crap from there, but we got completely the opposite.
Waiting patiently to enter with short position at 4007-20SPX zone
I havent traded much today, want to short, but this can continue squeezing on low vol
SP500 a short term outlook 🦐SP500 on the daily chart after the recent high tested the descending trendline at the 0.618 Fibonacci level and started a retracement move to the 0.5.
The price is now moving over a daily support and a possible break can happen.
How can i approach this scenario?
I will wait for the US market open and if the market will break and close below i will consider a nice short order according to the Plancton's strategy rules.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
• 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
• 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
• 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
• 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
• ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
SPX expect the price to hit 3985-90Looks how its holding the upper part of the cloud, I expect it to break at some point and get into the target box
I wont be long if we hit my target by the close, especially the 4k region
Im slightly long here, for the required target, will add if the price gets to 3950ES
🎄ho-ho-ho!
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it was evident that christmas was near,
all of the reds and the greens,
the bull and bear blood has been shed,
and beautifully splattered all over the tree🎄
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two things to look out for if you're feeling jolly this year,
1. es has to hold 3874.50.
2. es has to get back above 4020 (with force).
>if these two variables are met, and enough momentum is created, a full blown expansion into the 4200~4300 range into the end of year will be expected.
>failure to meet a single one of these variables, and es will fall right off a cliff, right along with santa.
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Ho Ho Ho!
🎅
SPX important to hold 3900 level on any test/if any tomorrowIdeal pathway for tomorrow is either gap down or sell after the open to mark new lows in low 3900SPX (3896-3908), then a strong reversal into Fri open
Im watching two levels for tomorrow on the upside:
- 3965-70SPX
- 4000SPX
Holding 4k will be important, as it will be a text book test of the broken down bull trend to confirm that the price has marked the top and it's on the way to make new lows.
I wont be surprised if the price overshoots to 4025-35 and even 4060+ and reverse hard from those levels.
So expect unexpected
Here is a zoomed in chart for tomorrow
Open above today's highs will be bullish. If it does, watch today's high as support.
Maj support tomorrow on closing level is 3933-34SPX, its a bear bull line at this point, closing below we will see mid 38 hundred next!
Resistance mentioned above and maj resistance is 4119-20SPX, closing above will push price to mid 41 hundred and even 4200+
Im not in that camp, but cant rule out mid 4k test as overshoot/stop run move.
Trading cycle is bearish now, all the way into 19-20th low!
Dont want 4120SPX being taken, it will flip to bullish if it does.
My trading pathway for tomorrow is to buy am lows and ride it at least into the close or at least 3960-70SPX
SPX is at support levelNothing much to add since yesterday's updates.
Im looking up for a breakdown trendline test. If its very bearish, then it can just get to 3965-70SPX and stop there.
That would mean much lower levels are coming this month!
Ideal pathway is to test 4k level and reverse down. That would be your shorting opportunity
The whole move off CPI will be erased next!
If it happens before the CPI on the 13th, be ware of a move down to 3400-3500!!!
So be careful if long here! especially if we stop at 3970SPX