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US SPX 500

Long term chartThis is how I see the whole move developing into end of Q1 of the next year. I do expect we will bottom on Mar/Apr (May if stretched) 2023 and then rally up into a bigger B wave up. There is a chance that we will see 1550-1750SPX as well as 4300-4500 within next 10 years, doubt we see new highs till after 2032 Please note Im not a Nostradamus or a person who predicts the future, my view can be changed at any time if I see changes on long term charts. Few numbers to watch - 3196 is 61.8% retracement off 2020 lows - 3238 is where 38.2% retracement off 2009 lows Maj support for the whole move down is at 3200-3240SPX - A wave B wave up to 4k+- (to be determent) C wave down to my low 24 handle next year to mark the bottom of the whole move down from Jan highs.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
20
SPX500: I'll keep being bearish until 4100Hi Traders, This is my view for this week on SP500 I remind you that this is only a forecast based on what current data are. Therefore the following signal will be activated only if specific rules are strictly respected. I really hope you liked this content and I would like to know what do you think about this analysis, so please use the comment section below to give me your point of view. Pit DISCLAIMER: Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice. ———————————
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by kitchen_trading
SPX is in mid range decision pointHappy Sunday everyone Here is a 4h chart. We are getting close to the breakout point, has to hold at that upper trendline Main resistance is at 3775SPX, dont rule out a fakeout into 3800 to finish up C wave up. - If breakout happens, will be watching for the test of the breakout trenline from the bottom and if broken out from the top. - Will do a long trade on the test with a tight stop (if breakout happens) - 3800-20SPX will be a very important level to watch or 3798SPX on closing level (bull/bear closing number) - above 3820SPX we will see 3910-25SPX Few things to mention: - TRIN is at .69 on Fri close (can mark a top or within 2 days) - VIX at support - All main moving averages are pointing down - Bull flag broken to the upside on Fri (something to pay attention to!) - Right shoulder is getting close to invalidate, watching Will be watching 3800 and 3645 SPX levels this coming week. We have a directional change tomorrow as well as following Tuesday. My thinking we will turn down hard on Monday and bottom on Tuesday fulfilling cycle low on the 24th Then rally into the 27th high and down again into EOM or 2-4th of Nov Will be looking a rally after the Midterms, which will be short lived. A maj low on week of Nov 21st and then rally into Jan Nov low will be a good swing long imo will be looking for dips to buy after that low is behind us. Will post long term view next
SP:SPX
by RealTima
10
Chop Chop continues. Its Friday - Dont Overtrade!No follow through today, really in a no mans land. A bull flag is a worry for the bears and the H&S (which is quite big) is a worry for the bulls. Peak your side:) Wont rule out a move to 3770-80SPX to have everyone believe that we have broken the bull flag to the upside, then we finally reverse and re-visit Oct 2nd low at min Im seating out and waiting for a right setup to come as well as holding my swing short. Dont want to miss the bus when the things starts moving. Its Friday, DO NOT OVER-TRADE! Keep your weekly gains, dont give those back!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
16
SPX is in decision modeIm always honest with my homework, I dont like to have several counts to be always right. At this point Im seeing both scenarios: 1 - We break the orange trendline and we are off the races to 3900-4000 (not preferred) 2 - We break 3500 or Oct 2nd low, we see 3380-3410 at min! I'm in lower lows camp, as you know. But the window for the strong move down to start is just almost out, has to start tomorrow! - The bull flag noted on the chart cant be unnoticeable! If it breaks, that's it for lower levels until Midterms! - On the bear side, we have perfect H&S as well as the price being so weak and bounces being so muted, its ready for the crash to start, it just needs a little help to push the markets off the cliff! Will we have that catalysis? I bet yes, the question is when! Will repeat again, November is a panic month. Can be an avalanche of events! War, elections, bonds going off the roof, all the economic issues around the globe. My conclusion here is this: - Im net short, I will flip if we get above that trendline shown on the chart and enter on re test. I dont want to do it as it will cost me in stop losses - Im not adding to short till we break 3500 or Oct 2nd lows! - If we break, we will see 3380-3410 and then should have a good bounce to 3500, then it will be another perfect show for a move down to at least 3200-10! Have a good night everyone! P.S. Please press that rocket button below, push this chart up for others to see. Also feel free to share my charts with anyone, lets get 1k followers, means my work is important for others to see.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX broke down, nothing changed since amHi everyone, I slept in today and did few things around house, needed some time off the screen. Yesterday wasnt a good day for me, I had some losses with stops, its not an easy market to trade, too wide stops get triggered as well. Im doing swing trades now only till the first extreme hits. So far its short the rip game and Im looking for the first test of 3650SPX Targets to hit are on the chart - 3640 - 3580 - and then new lows! Im still expecting down move to new lows, crash scenario is off the table. At least that is not what Im warred about. BUT I still expect 3212 within a month time frame and ideally 28 handle (super ideal is 24 handle:) Shoot me questions, Im on my computer now! Will post other charts next. VIX to hit $60+ imo and that could be my 28 or 24 handle
SP:SPX
by RealTima
20
SP500 Buying Index Twitter 44/289 (warnings-manipulations)Pay attention to the dates of Ilon Musk's statements about the “grand purchase” of $44 billion (some sources of information have 43, but most advertise as 44 for obvious reasons) of the social network from which he broadcasts. Probably many people understand what 44 is and why that particular number and time is chosen. 44 is a warning that is often used in various media, especially in the era of the crown virus and various “military operations” not only of Russia (as a plan and coordination of one). On April 4 (44) Musk bought a 9.2% stake in Twitter for 2.89 billion (area + level). On April 25 (25/4) he already bought for 44 billion. Naturally, it can cheat because the crowd must lose, knowing the exact value—it wins. As an option, these are directions to fuel the first decline (which everyone is selling now because they realize they will buy at a lower level), and the reversal will happen much sooner (planned and coordinated by various major market participants, the world situation). Basic things in trading never change. Only the adjustment to the new scenery of market reality changes. Trading is primarily a projection of the human psyche onto a chart, and then everything else. Pay attention also to the dates, there may be events that will be displayed on the price of assets, quite possibly on the index (it is not necessary, but it should be taken into account). For your eyes will go dark, from lack of understanding and lack of communication with the "battle hamsters", and you will not understand the main trick of the "noble hustlers" to save the world. After a while you will read another fairy tale as justification for the "market direction effect" (capital annexation). For such a fall to take place, which is "secretly told to the world" by "the mouthpiece of the 'brand-man' Tweeter" (behind him are other people not from the "conspiracy theory" section), it is necessary that a "great sadness" takes place in the USA and in the world (as a projection of the locomotive of the world economy), which will strongly hit the economy of this country, which will be reflected on this index. The chart shows 2 previous crises and their significant corrections, and of course, the V-shaped reversal. We should first of all understand that the price is currently under the uptrend line, and this fact cannot be hidden. The reversal (recovery) can happen only when the descending secondary trend line (purple) will be broken through and the price will fix above it, and the growth of the price (growth of the markets) will start. A fractal is a cloned psychological behavior of people projected on a price chart. Can it be a trick? Undoubtedly, yes. Limit your risks, do not hurry with entry points like in long / short and have a "safety cushion $". The basis of earnings at a distance, no matter what trends—it's your trading strategy and risk management (knowledge, projected into actions based on your experience). No matter how much virtual money you have earned in the market, as long as this profit is not materialized in tangible goods and services—it is zero. If you work in shorts (on any asset stock, cryptocurrency, and so on...), be sure to use a stop and move it after the decline. So that your profit doesn't turn into a loss. I purposely attached my previous trading/learning idea on a live chart (see update and description). See how this stock took money by manipulating long and short squeezes while the price was going down. GEVO. Manipulation Short squeeze. How short positions are reset Also check out this idea of learning/observing from Dow Jones. For a general understanding of the processes. This index, along with the SP 500, represents the situation in the U.S. and the world. There is an extensive article on this topic. Dow Jones 1915-2020 History of key U-turns. Situation now.
FX:SPX500
by SpartaBTC
26
Triangle broken to the downside, casious of VIX OPEX flowEven if the triangle is broken down, it still can spike up into tomorrow. watching 3680-83SPX. Im holding my swing short, will add if we see higher levels today. Quick ins and outs Main resistance is at 3798SPX, Support is not even close at 3565-70SPX and below, they are minor, weak. I think we will have a range bound day into tomorrow, cautious on both sides, even if I lean towards buying the dips today This bear market rally is weak and every one of them is getting weaker and weaker. There was no pain on the market, no heavy selling, no one is calling to their broker to sell their position as they all being told this was the low! Its coming though...
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
Selling SPX into swing high.US500 - 8 hours expiry - We look to Sell at 3803 (stop at 3867) Prices have continued the bullish move higher and resulted in 2 consecutive positive days. A move higher faces tough resistance and we remain cautious on upside potential. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. The primary trend remains bearish. Our profit targets will be 3703 and 3663 Resistance: 3830 / 4275 / 4550 Support: 3680 / 3500 / 3200 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
ES the only bullish count I can come up withThis is the only bullish setup I can come up with if the price takes 3822ES The target is 3965, right where is the top of the trend channel is - Fits well with the fibs extensions To me the price has to gap up above today's am highs to have this pathway proven. Also wont rule out just a test of 3820-22ES or 3800-20SPX. I have also revised my SPX chart, see below, and it has to stick with the 3800 and reject for lower levels to be seen or it the move lower will be toasted. We are def in a window for a move lower/crash like or confirm the lows we have seen on Oct 2nd. I personally still in a lower lows to be seen camp and the low should come early Nov or can be stretched to Nov 21st. If we do start the move lower, it has to start tomorrow, Thursday the top!!! Im getting hit on weekly lotto puts due to sizing, I will do one more try tomorrow after OPEX and if we indeed see 3800 tested.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
15
Great Depression SP500 to 1833Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, founder of hedge fund Duquesne Capital, recently said that “Our central case is a hard landing by the end of 23. I will be stunned if we don’t have a recession in ’23.” Even if a catastrophic recession somehow doesn’t hit the world, high inflation, soaring commodity costs, and plummeting currency values worldwide will ensure global economies will continue to struggle. The real question isn’t whether a downturn is coming. It’s how long it will last. Is a “dead decade” on the horizon? While most investors are used to recessions that take a year or two to recover from, there’s also a chance this upcoming meltdown could be a much longer-lasting affair.
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by criptoken1
2
SPX can be at the begging of a very stip downtrend channelSmall disclaimer: - Im not calling for a crash, but expressing a high chance (in my personal opinion based on my own homework) scenario to play out within a month time frame! - When we are out of the crash window, I will reduce this possibility to bare minimum! For this scenario to play-out (not a trading advice, just a possibility), we need a daily close below 3450-55SPX, then its in a clear fall. - Invalidation point is a move above 3840-50SPX on closing basis. Then the whole pathway is a trash Perfect first cycle low early Nov, if not last day(s) of Oct and main cycle low for this year is on week 21st of Nov (+2 or -1 day). Supports are on the chart, again if it starts falling (which I think we will) soon. First big low should come on the 24th of Oct imo. Moon cycle crash window is from 20-24th. If it misses, then no crash and maybe we just bottom at 34 handle or 32 handle (my ideal target all year) max. Please keep in mind, that this is not my main pathway till 3450-55SPX is broken on daily level, must close below it, better for 2 days straight. I will be updating support levels on the go (if this plays out), but main support levels (lines) are on the chart. Will be updating more in this thread tomorrow with smaller timeframe charts
SP:SPX
by RealTima
7
SPX & BTC - What's next? Talking about BTC price it's hard to forget about S&P500 ofc. Current situation doesn't look too bad, It fell by a significant percentage already, and it seems stuck around near support on the weekly timeframe. If we can expect some small relief rally for here - the same could be expected for btc as well. Maybe it's a change for BTCUSDT to break out 20k resistance. Otherwise, if there is no rise here soon, BTC will also fall. Information is just for educational purposes, never financial advice. Always do your own research. Hit the "LIKE" button and follow to support, thanks!
SP:SPXLong
by Bitduke
2
SPX EOW Close ChartWell its a very bad close imo. Bullz have only one chance to hold todays close in B wave down and rally up to 3800 even! But if it instead (higher odds imo) we crash from the open, then my pathway will be - Down to 3400 - Bounce to 3500 - Down to my 3212 (better hold it) If 32 handle wont hold, we will see 2855SPX by 24th! Be ready! Im sure majority is not ready for this type of scenario! Also I think we bottom EOM or early Nov, how low only the GOD knows! Im short lots of SPY puts but will do ES and NQ short on Sunday after I see the opening reaction of the futures. Have a great weekend
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
45
Selling SPX into swing high.US500 - 23h expiry - We look to Sell at 3710 (stop at 3780) Buying pressure from 3580 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. The trend of lower highs is located at 3721. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. This is negative for sentiment and the downtrend has potential to return. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 3510 and 3450 Resistance: 3800 / 3980 / 4160 Support: 3450 / 3210 / 3000 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
8
SPX/SPY Weekly Volatility Forecast 17-21 October 2022 SPX/SPY Weekly Volatility Forecast 17-21 October 2022 We can see that currently the volatility is around 4.44%, falling from 4.48% of the last week. At the same time, its currently place on the 90th percentile based on the ATR calculations. With this in mind, around this percentile, we can expect an average weekly movement from the open price of the candle of: In case of a Bullish movement : 2.54% In case of a Bearish movement : 2.7% With the current volatility point, we have a 24.3% probability that the end of the weekly candle is going close either above of below the next channel: TOP : 3751 BOT : 3430 At the same time, there is currently a 38% probability that we can touch the previous high of the weekly candle 3730 And there is a 66% probability that we can touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 3500 Lastly, currently the rating from the moving average is around -68% indicating a very bearish trend(and we can confirm this since november 2021)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
SPX 2 pathways, all the same resultMorning everyone, I sleep in today and missed am short, sold my puts from yesterday at 3620ES zone though, re entering those now again. The price hit my 3720-30 (as per my yesterday's update) zone in am, was an amazing short and I missed it! I see 2 possible pathways: - first is the price is working on the right shoulder and will push much lower next week. My ideal pathway - second is the touch of the upper channel of the trend channel ABC black line. If second, we should touch 3600 and hold, then push for the final move to hit 3815-20SPX Its Friday, do not over trade, let the trade come to you and then press! Im swing short into EOM!
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
31