SPX & BTC - What's next? Talking about BTC price it's hard to forget about S&P500 ofc. Current situation doesn't look too bad, It fell by a significant percentage already, and it seems stuck around near support on the weekly timeframe.
If we can expect some small relief rally for here - the same could be expected for btc as well. Maybe it's a change for BTCUSDT to break out 20k resistance.
Otherwise, if there is no rise here soon, BTC will also fall.
Information is just for educational purposes, never financial advice. Always do your own research.
Hit the "LIKE" button and follow to support, thanks!
US SPX 500
SPX EOW Close ChartWell its a very bad close imo.
Bullz have only one chance to hold todays close in B wave down and rally up to 3800 even!
But if it instead (higher odds imo) we crash from the open, then my pathway will be
- Down to 3400
- Bounce to 3500
- Down to my 3212 (better hold it)
If 32 handle wont hold, we will see 2855SPX by 24th!
Be ready! Im sure majority is not ready for this type of scenario!
Also I think we bottom EOM or early Nov, how low only the GOD knows!
Im short lots of SPY puts but will do ES and NQ short on Sunday after I see the opening reaction of the futures.
Have a great weekend
Selling SPX into swing high.US500 - 23h expiry - We look to Sell at 3710 (stop at 3780)
Buying pressure from 3580 resulted in prices rejecting the dip.
The trend of lower highs is located at 3721.
The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited.
This is negative for sentiment and the downtrend has potential to return.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 3510 and 3450
Resistance: 3800 / 3980 / 4160
Support: 3450 / 3210 / 3000
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
SPX/SPY Weekly Volatility Forecast 17-21 October 2022 SPX/SPY Weekly Volatility Forecast 17-21 October 2022
We can see that currently the volatility is around 4.44%, falling from 4.48% of the last week.
At the same time, its currently place on the 90th percentile based on the ATR calculations.
With this in mind, around this percentile, we can expect an average weekly movement from the open price of the candle of:
In case of a Bullish movement : 2.54%
In case of a Bearish movement : 2.7%
With the current volatility point, we have a 24.3% probability that the end of the weekly candle is going close either above of below the next channel:
TOP : 3751
BOT : 3430
At the same time, there is currently a 38% probability that we can touch the previous high of the weekly candle 3730
And there is a 66% probability that we can touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 3500
Lastly, currently the rating from the moving average is around -68% indicating a very bearish trend(and we can confirm this since november 2021)
SPX 2 pathways, all the same resultMorning everyone,
I sleep in today and missed am short, sold my puts from yesterday at 3620ES zone though, re entering those now again.
The price hit my 3720-30 (as per my yesterday's update) zone in am, was an amazing short and I missed it!
I see 2 possible pathways:
- first is the price is working on the right shoulder and will push much lower next week. My ideal pathway
- second is the touch of the upper channel of the trend channel ABC black line.
If second, we should touch 3600 and hold, then push for the final move to hit 3815-20SPX
Its Friday, do not over trade, let the trade come to you and then press!
Im swing short into EOM!
SPX main target for the whole move down is at low 2400!Sometime things are super simple!
This low wont be even lower then 2020 lows!
I did expect the 2020 lows to be re-visited since Jan-Feb of this year!
Well its coming imo
Will it be Oct-Nov low or extend into 2023 Mar/Apr low, I dont know.
I would like to see that low to be seen in Nov and Q1 next year to be a higher low.
Then we rally so hard into 2025-26!
Have a good night
S&P 500 USD - Black TuesdayA crash is coming in the stock market in the following days: probably this week or maybe next week.
The last intermediate cycle lasted for 80 bars and ended on the 16.06.2022.
The new intermediate cycle rallied to the 200 SMA then dropped into the DCL on the 9th Sept. The new daily cycle is only on day 14 - we are in this daily cycle - and it is close to the support of 3634...
If we we are having the same length of intermediate cycle like the last one then we are going to break 3634 this week and drop to 2962.
If we are having a longer intermediate cycle ( 100-120 bars) then we are going to bounce from here for a few days and break 3634 a few days later sometimes next week.
As the dollar seems to working to print its multi year top these days there is a good chance that the support zone is going to break tomorrow or Wednesday this week.
SPX is at Very Very Very Dangerous zone!Hi everyone,
Im on vacation from Sunday to next Sunday, but I will be trading and will be still posting updates.
I dont want to call for a crash here, chances for it are super slim.
Any trade must be protected with a stop and only you as a trader can make the decisions on what to do with the information you're getting.
Must do is your own homework!
Again do not mortgage your house and go all in as this can be a very well one big bear trap!
Im looking for that final move to be over by end of Oct or early Nov regardless. (updated about this last week Thursday or so)
My target zone is 34 handle by the time window outlined above with ideal target being 32 handle.
Below it, the markets are in real troubles!
Can it be a crash, I don't know, I'm too far out to predict such things.
Here is my quick but important update:
- I wont rule out another low on Monday am and in fact I will be shorting on Sunday if we get a bounce.
- That low can be lower 52 week low or just 3610SPX test
Levels of importance
- 3640.50 (again)
- 3610, below this level comes
- 3550-40
- 3511
- 3480-85 all SPX
Resistance is at 3735-45; 3775-85
Here is my 1h chart
On this chart I have outlined support levels, when/if broken you know whats coming next!
IF we get a strong rally into Wed, I will not be holding longs at all, line none! I will only do options (puts) on what Im ready to loose.
So here is a clue to how low this can fall in a very short time:
- check the fibs from the low of 2009 to the high this Jan, check where is 78.6% retracement is
Walt Disney Company Analyze🐭 !!!The Walt Disney Company, commonly known as Disney, is an American multinational mass media and entertainment conglomerate headquartered at the Walt Disney Studios complex in Burbank, California.
Walt Disney Company runs near the Resistance line and my PRZ(Price Reversal Zone).
Also, we can see Heavy Hidden Divergence(HD-) between Price and MACD Indicator.
I expect Walt Disney Company can lose ❗️20%❗️of its value.
Walt Disney Company Analyze (DISUSD), Daily Timeframe (Log Scale /Heikin Ashi)⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position that you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
11:1RR on this trade -- SPX500 BUYWe had already taken SSL and then after we got that large expansion and retracement into OTE 0.618-0.705 which was also inside of FVG that was my hint to enter the trade. We have build up lots of bsl and it looks like a complete MMSM has been created. Will post more details/explanations under this section as I see fit.
WEEKLY OVERVIEW on US Index, EURUSD and USDCADHi Traders,
This is my view for this week on:
- SP500 and NAS100
- EURUSD
- USDCAD
I remind you that this is only a forecast based on what current data are.
Therefore the following signal will be activated only if specific rules are strictly respected.
I really hope you liked this content and I would like to know what do you think about this analysis, so please use the comment section below to give me your point of view.
Pit
DISCLAIMER:
Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice.
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SP500. The worst (>-70%) is yet to come by 2025. 11/Oct/22..SP500 probably will break ATH ( All Time high again ) by 2025 as we’re probably @ the sub wave B ( Red Circled) of the second leg of expanding flat pattern abc (green) which is wave b (green)..Based on the “pattern + cycle”..There is a “possibility” that SP500 will crash more than 70% toward around 2000 level. By end of 2024/ early 2025! So..”Prepare for the worst!”..
SPX pivot points!Check out how the daily Pivots aligning!!!
I expect S2 to hit if it break this week!
- 3228SPX, my target was 3212, close enough
Ideally we hit S3 on this one!
- is at low 2800!!!
Perfect storm is getting ready!
If we rally tomorrow, I will short EOD close and add on Wednesday
Dont tell me that i didnt warn about this possibility of much much lower levels to be seen in end of Oct to Nov 21st week timeframe!
Timing is everything is this game,
Do Not Get Trapped!
SPX still not positive.US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 3679 (stop at 3721)
Prices have continued the bearish move lower and resulted in 3 consecutive negative days.
We look for losses to be extended today.
A firmer opening is expected to challenge bearish resolve.
Resistance is located at 3690 and should cap gains to this area.
We look to sell rallies.
Our profit targets will be 3572 and 3550
Resistance: 3690 / 3800 / 4110
Support: 3570 / 3210 / 2800
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
es 10-10good morning,
happy colombus day - or whatever it is that you celebrate.
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es has gone down deeper than my recent expectations, but the overall market is still holding structure \\ and still looks really good for the move up i've been talking about.
haven't seen much accumulation yet until these last few days, so still looking for more sideways action down here before it pops up into the end of this year.
4500 is conservative target.
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ps. as mentioned in all past posts on es, this is only a theory - es can absolutely continue bleeding down without any signs of life.
SPX last night email update chartMorning everyone,
Im sharing my last night work with you here. This was sent out to those who are on my email list.
It was a long update, I will copy paste only important stuff here:
I think we get Jun low to Aug high type of move but much faster.
Looking at the zoomed in chart (4h white background chart)
- You can see that I expect to have a deep pullback into Fri (ideal target is 3680-70SPX), another move up from there either to 3875SPX to finish up the whole move up of this 4th wave.
- Or we get Jun to Aug (but faster) move off the lows and get a move from upcoming Fri low back to 3785, down to 3645 and final strong move up to 4040-4100SPX. This pathway will make the next high not mid month but closer to the EOM (making higher monthly close)
After mid or end of the month high expect the final move down early Nov to finish up the whole move down of A wave from Jan high and mark the low for the year.
Targets to hit:
- If the price makes 4040-4100SPX , then the first target will be back to just a bit under 3600SPX
- Ideal target zone is 3475 and 3389-95SPX
- 3212SPX is the extended target
Trading plan for the rest of the week.
- Looking to start taking off my swing short at 3715-20SPX level and will start layering with longs there 25%
- Exit full short position at 3670-80SPX level and get 50% more longs to make it 75% long position
- In case we hit (less odds) 3640SPX I will be 125% long, otherwise I will add on a move above 3755-3760 test and hold.
On the simple daily SPX chart 110MA is below 50MA can be the main target to hit next, need to close above the mid Bollinger, which I think will happen on the move up after Fri low.
I really think the price should close the last gap from 3678SPX before the move up resumes.
I want to see a price gap down below 3750 from the open to have my plan playing out.
3640SPX is a very important number to hold on any closing level!
Numbers of importance for tomorrow:
Resistance:
- 3876SPX (closing above should see 3960SPX next)
Support:
- 3749-50SPX, closing below should see below 3700 next
- 3715-20SPX
- 3670-80SPX
- 3640-45SPX