spx500 BIAS REVIEWA little video review of me just taking L's and documenting what my thought process is and what I think about and what leads me to do and react the way I do to the markets .. etc.. NO Perfection here -- just lots of learning.. Never financial advice just documenting for my education and learning process and sharing with those who might be going through the same obstacles in trading.
US SPX 500
Very important place to hold, I think it wontSo close to new lows. DOW already made one last Fri.
SPX to make today or tomorrow imo.
Too many stops below that low Jun low, Im sure algos will shave those, before turn.
Fear and Greed is at Extreme fear levels, VIX is above 31-32, perfect bottoming indicators to me
Below the support line (3662-58) we will see 3636-20 and my ideal target 3588
Im not going long till tomorrow
BTW ES already broken support and last night low and just needs a continuation
SPX pathwayThis update works only if we wont flash crash tomorrow from the open or even pre-market.
Next week is a directional change week!
If we hold 3636-40 on closing level it will be quite bullish imo.
But I still think we will deep down to 3588SPX before it finds a good bottom.
Timing is limited for Mon/Tuesday am only, so tomorrow's action is very important.
I think we bottom either tomorrow or Tuesday. Regardless of that low Im going to watch Tuesday higher daily close to mark temp bottom.
Ideally we see 3960SPX on the move up by early Oct. But it can be limited to 3830SPX
Going to start buying tomorrow if we hit 3636-40SPX and add at 3588SPX.
My pathway is this:
- bottom on Tuesday
- up move into 3rd/4th
- down into Oct 7th
Dont get trapped with shorts next 2 days!
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 25 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 25 Week
ES' short was awesome.
Possible Scenarios are considered:
1) Short on test and reject of 3792 // lower trend line
2) Long if 3540-3600 // 3711 // dotted and solid trend line is supported
Weekly: High vol down bar close off low = minor demand
Daily: High vol down bar close off low = minor demand.
H3: Possible bottom reversal = Demand > Supply
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
3903 3792 3717
3642 3540-3600
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
S&P500 – not the bear market, just a correction!Hello, everyone!
You know me as a Bitcoin analyst, but S&P500 have the strong influence on cryptomarket. Today I revealed that the “bear market” on traditional markets is going to end.
I use quotes because it is not the true bear market, just the correction. I will explain you why. What is the bear market – it’s the 5 waves Elliott cycle to the downside, but if we try to count waves the potential wave 4 overlaps the wave 1 – it means that it’s not the waves 1 and 4. Thus we have to consider it as the ABC correction. Here this ABC is represented as a zigzag. Wave A consists of the zigzag abc inside it. The same is true for wave B. Now the price continues to draw the wave C. The target for wave C could be the 0.618 Fibonacci extension ($3550). Also the MACD indicator on the 1W timeframe showing us the potential strong bullish divergence – it’s the insane reversal signal for the end of the “bear market”.
SPX all eyes on 3721 number!Resistance is at 3725-30 now.
Maj support on closing level today is 3721SPX!
The price is below that number.
So if we close below (and Im looking for a rally back to 3730 and fail) then we could see my 3580 as early as Monday!
Next week supports are:
- 3662
- 3636
- 3580
- 3540-45
ES next stop is at 3666!
We are below all the possible support fib extensions, new lows are coming!
How do you feel now about 5500 call (I know some of you watch my channel here), being wrong all year and not admitting it its a diagnosis!
Dont get trapped going into the weekend, being in cash is a position too
P.S. I got stopped on todays lotto calls, 50% cut, thats why its a lotto
SPX S&P500 The Bigger PictureThe FED Meeting on September 20-21 is expected to deliver 75bps hike.
The decision will be announced on September 21.
Some key data to consider:
The annual inflation rate in the US eased for a second straight month to 8.3% in August of 2022, from 8.5% in July, but above market forecasts of 8.1%.
Inflation rose for food (11.4%, the most since 1979), shelter (6.2%, the most since 1984), and used cars and trucks (7.8%).
Core CPI increased 6.3% on a year, the most since March, and up markedly from 5.9% hit in both June and July.
So there is a change to see even an 100bps hike next week!
Under those circumstances, the economic hurricane coming our way that Jamie Dimon was preaching, could become reality:
If we look at the S&P chart, we can easily presume a retracement to the $3714 support line, followed by, worst case scenario, a drop to $3100 if we are going to see more earnings revisions, like FDX did this week.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Buying a falling knife..? SPXUS500 - Expiry in 24h - We look to Buy at 3676 (stop at 3602)
The medium term bias remains bearish.
The previous swing low is located at 3640.
Price action continues to gravitate towards crucial support levels with aggressive selling interest.
Support could prove difficult to breakdown.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher.
A higher correction is expected.
Our profit targets will be 3855 and 3905
Resistance: 3855 / 3911 / 4155
Support: 3645 / 3210 / 2780
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
SPX500| the speech of the head of the Fed J. Powell, even lower?Hello trader Today I prepared a new idea for you. Like and subscribe to the channel there is a lot of useful information✅
The stock market continues to fall before our eyes, after the harsh rhetoric of J. Powell, investors simply began to exit the stock market in batches, which actually affects further falls.
Today there will be a speech by Fed Chairman J. Powell again
So get ready for market volatility again! Grandpa Powell will again severely punish the markets, well, or he will say something softer and we will see a slight increase, which I actually hope for)
SPX weekly end updateHi everyone,
This one will be quick
Its a weekly closing and I got both daily and weekly Major support at 3721-22SPX on closing level.
- S2 is at 3709
- 100% extension off Aug 16 and Sep 12th highs is at 3680SPX
We have Powell speaking at 2pm Eastern
My trading plan for tomorrow:
- currently short, both ES and NQ (ES entered at 3769.50, stop 10 points)
- exit ES at 3936
- looking for a low before Powell, ideally in first couple of hours of the trading day - 3721-3709SPX and possible extension (less odds) 3680SPX (has a perfect 1.618 fib for the ES extension lower)
- will buy lotto calls if we see second number
- exit at the EOD ideally at 3770 level
I will be entering with some lotto Monday puts if we get EOD rally and fail before the close
Most important number is 3721SPX tomorrow! Closing below will bring 3660 and 3636SPX next week if not lower!
There is a potential crash scenario on Monday if we get the rally into the close and fail to close on the highs.
Have a good night!
SPX tested the broken out trendline from the top, pushHere is last chance for the bulls to push into the close, levels to watch are 3802 and 3817 on closing level
I have set a buy order at 83 with a tight stop (if it gets there again, will be a good r/r imo)
Bull flagging
Must close above 3786 at min for any bulls to have hope for another push to 3802-17 at min.
My thoughts are either we see 3710-21 tomorrow am and rally into the 27th, or the opposite, we fail again tomorrow at 3817 and go down to 3720 and even 3680-36 by Tuesday
SPX and not ES has ugly IHS stucktureOnly hopes for bulls is this IHS, which is quite ugly looking.
Target 3794-95 to 3800
Only if we close above 3817-18SPX, only then I see a possibility of a move upwards to test 3850-55 and ideally 3880 again
Daily S2 pivot is at 3707.52, daily and weekly maj support is at 3721 on closing level
Wow just realized I have almost 600 followers, thank you all for the trust in my work!
SPX both supports broke down (added ES chart)We got my green open but it didnt really continue, I did few longs, still have one running in case its bottoming here
But wont be surprised of bigger down days to come, 27th should mark some sort of a low in turn around Tuesday.
I think we hit 3680 at min, be careful on the long side.
The price is so weak cant even bounce much, means consolidation for lower levels.
3721 and 3636 are both maj supports to watch! (on closing level)
Its a short the rip game till its not
As you can see only ES is holding from falling apart
Selling previous support on SPX.US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 3834 (stop at 3889)
The medium term bias remains bearish.
We can see no technical reason for a change of trend.
A firmer opening is expected to challenge bearish resolve. Resistance is located at 3840 and should cap gains to this area.
We look to sell rallies.
Our profit targets will be 3701 and 3680
Resistance: 3840 / 4150 / 4320
Support: 3700 / 3280 / 2475
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
SPX: The 4 Horseman of the Apocalypse"When the Lamb opened the fourth seal, I heard the fourth living creature saying, “Come!” Behold, I saw a horse, pale greenish gray. The name of the one riding on it was Death"
Hello, and welcome to the Apocalypse :D
With SPY/SPX recent moves, I thought I'd scan history to see if there's anything unique about the pattern we see today. I wasn't disappointed.
The best way I can describe it so far is a decline + 3 bear market rallies that I highlight here (weekly charts):
This pattern has been present 5 other times in history, 4 of which ended in declines ranging from -37% to -56%. After the 3rd bear market rally, a 4th comes. The 4th horseman of the apocalypse signaling the end is nigh!
Keep in mind that recognizing patterns has an element of bias to it and these were all identified to the best of my abilities.
Hmmmmmm...
1966
23% move down from the highs
238 days from top to bottom
1968
37% move down from the highs
532 days from top to bottom
1973
50% move down from the highs
630 days from top to bottom
2000
50% move down from the highs
693 days from top to bottom
2007
56% move down from the highs
511 days from top to bottom
Another interesting thing to note is that they seem to happen in sets of 2 with the second downturn moving 10%-13% lower than the first low.
1968-1974
2000-2009
If this pattern does in fact play out, it would mean this chart can guide you into the future of when to buy for the next bull market, and when to sell before the next decline. What's also interesting to take note of is that although our current issues of inflation are more related to the 70s than 2000-08, the market movements are more in line with the speed of 2000-08. 68-73 slowly fell from the top and then quickly fell to the bottom whereas 00-08 quickly fell from the top and slowly fell towards the bottom (time wise). For that reason, most of my predictions are based on 00-08.
Lastly I'll post my projection for the end of this recession. You can look at my previous post which mapped the exact moves of 00 and 08 based on time and percentage.
SPX is at its support trendline off Sep 1st and 6th lowIt was a crazy day, as always after FOMC.
Im expecting this move down to reverse completely and more by Fri.
- Main resistance is at 4012-15SPX on weekly closing
- Daily resistance is at 3802-17, 3850-55, 3895 and 3935
Tomorrows support (if the AHs price wont be reversed by the open) levels:
- 3752-50
- 3721
- 3680
I expect 3721SPX holding strong on closing level and wont rule out an overshoot to 3680SPX
SPX daily targets 3475-85SPX by Oct 28-31st
ES support trendline hit
- resistance is at 3825-35 for tonight
If we open green or flat, it will be a bullish sign and I will be looking to enter with longs and ride it till at least over today's highs.
Otherwise will be looking to buy at 3752 and 3721SPX tomorrow for a good size rally back to 3890-95 or so.
No point to over trade this but trade the levels of importance
Have a good night
𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗌𝗍𝗈𝗋𝗒 𝗀𝗈𝖾𝗌the story goes like this,
there once was once a bunch of these bull bros
who turned bearish near the bottom of a bear market lows.
when they finally turned to bear
market maker laughed into the air
it was a mission which was so deviously accomplished.
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3750--->4530
this is my projection into the new year.
🎆🎆🎆
spx500, end of year (bullish) projection{this is not my primary count}
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good evening,
this is a bullish interpration of what comes next.
putting on my bullish sweater tonight, just for the sake of the argument.
----
so many people are bearish right now, like more than i ever imagined.
you know what happens when this many people are short?
a face ripping short squeeze takes place, which marks up the price to unreasonable heights for seemingly no reason.
----
new years target = $4530
S&P500 Index Analyze!!!First, I have to say that if you want to know about the road map of the S&P500 Index, please look at my previous post about S&P500 Index (It ran as I expected✅).👇
S&P500 Index is near the trend line, and I expect that it goes down and making the Expanding Leading Diagonal.
I showed you the end of wave 5 in my chart.
Also, we can see the Hidden Divergence (HD-) between MACD Indicator and price.👇
❗️Note❗️: If S&P500 Index breaks the trend line, my scenario will change.
S&P500 Index Analyze Daily Timeframe(Log Scale)
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.