SP500 CONTINUES ITS DOWNTRENDAfter the Wednesday rebound, SP500 went into downturn again in Thursday, amid investors fears of economic slowdown and further interest increase.
The benchmark hit new low on Wednesday, before rebound, of 3602, which was not tested yesterday, but if the downtrend keeps its momentum, this level might be tested and even levels of 3480 might be reached. In the opposite scenario, if the trend reverses, the price might reach its high of 4160.
All technical indicators are confirming the bearish trend, with MACD histogram below 0 line and RSI approaching oversold zone of the 30 line.
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US SPX 500
15min SPX is about to give buy signal, but will fail imoVery weak day today.
I want 3636 test and fail from there to close at the lows.
Very important level to watch on closing level as mentioned before.
So many are trapped since yesterday and the gap might not close till Wednesday next week at min imo
Also no one would expect another 100 points trim tomorrow, everyone is looking how "oversold" it is and pray for a bounce.
All we get is muted reaction and more selling. Tomorrow should mark temp bottom imo
SPX is looking lower as wellI wanted one more high today to short and the price is just so weak, its unreal!
This was my NQ update from last night
No more longs for me till the quarter end tomorrow!
All eyes on 3636 and 3600SPX on closing level!
Closing below 3636 will bring mid 3500 (3555-45) next, then 3500.
Closing below 3600 could cut another 100 points plus tomorrow!
So far it bounced off my support (grey line below the price), that support is less important then 3636!
So be very careful here! Also I wont aggressively short it, as the window for the low is tomorrow/Sunday (for futs)
I will be taking off all my swing MNQ short tomorrow and wont hold over the weekend.
Next week should get us a relive bounce into 6-7th high, then this can continue! Closing the month below 3600 will bring 3200 on the table for the next month or Nov too be seen
This is not the time when you go all in with longs, have stops or wait for the extreme levels to come to enter (much safer bet)
SPX 500 how low can we go?In the past 2 years things were very strange, good and bad.
But now again during the uncertain times, what can we expect?
Well, I just put 2007-2009 crash chart, and what we can see, believe it or not, it looks very similar to the current one.
What needs to happen in the world to see such a collapse or even worse than in 2008..
There can be a lot of reasons, let's point out the top points - we have "old good" money printing machine continuation, energy crisis and war in Ukraine. So regarding the war, if putin will use tactical nukes (which is possible, but before he will lose even more soldiers on the battlefield) world will be in TOTAL shock and panic!!! And if this scenario playing out (which is obviously the worst and extremely unfortunate scenario), then we can expect SPX price even lower than 2100...
This is my personal opinion only. Thank you for your attention! :)
SPX quick update15min is diverging down, watch for 3731-32 print (I have few to short there), we came close enough though.
That resistance line above it what must hold on any test, it will be quite bearish if it does today/tomorrow.
Needs a gap up to confirm the low is in.
I have trimmed my longs and entered with SPY Oct exp 351P, also have order to short at numbers mentioned above.
For tomorrow Im looking for a higher low and move above that resistance to test the trendlines above at 3750
3750-60SPX is the next resistance after 3725-35SPX
Im not shorting here till I see my 3731
SPX Break 3646 and we are off to hit my buy zoneThis is why Im not jumping on the long side today just yet, another bull trap from the open.
I want new lows to enter with longs, ideally we hit 3588 or at least low 3600. Maj closing support is at 3636-39
The buy is coming soon, waiting to press at lower levels
SPX Main resistance is at 3752-55We didnt get lower open I was expecting, instead it gaped up.
Im not trusting this moves up till new low is made. This week should be green going into next one imo so have to mind that.
Mon/Tue are the days for the temp low and since we made a higher high, it seems we got one yesterday.
Will be watching levels to go long.
Main support in 3680s (if it gets there, I will be starting with some longs)
Supports are on the chart, below the price
Selling SPX into a rally.US500 - Intraday Expiry 9pm UK - We look to Sell at 3777 (stop at 3836)
Sentiment remains negative despite the pull-back higher in prices.
We are assessed to be in a corrective mode higher.
Horizontal resistance is seen at 3800.
Resistance could prove difficult to breakdown.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 3640 and 3600
Resistance: 3800 / 4155 / 4322
Support: 3640 / 3280 / 2800
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spx500 BIAS REVIEWA little video review of me just taking L's and documenting what my thought process is and what I think about and what leads me to do and react the way I do to the markets .. etc.. NO Perfection here -- just lots of learning.. Never financial advice just documenting for my education and learning process and sharing with those who might be going through the same obstacles in trading.
Very important place to hold, I think it wontSo close to new lows. DOW already made one last Fri.
SPX to make today or tomorrow imo.
Too many stops below that low Jun low, Im sure algos will shave those, before turn.
Fear and Greed is at Extreme fear levels, VIX is above 31-32, perfect bottoming indicators to me
Below the support line (3662-58) we will see 3636-20 and my ideal target 3588
Im not going long till tomorrow
BTW ES already broken support and last night low and just needs a continuation
SPX pathwayThis update works only if we wont flash crash tomorrow from the open or even pre-market.
Next week is a directional change week!
If we hold 3636-40 on closing level it will be quite bullish imo.
But I still think we will deep down to 3588SPX before it finds a good bottom.
Timing is limited for Mon/Tuesday am only, so tomorrow's action is very important.
I think we bottom either tomorrow or Tuesday. Regardless of that low Im going to watch Tuesday higher daily close to mark temp bottom.
Ideally we see 3960SPX on the move up by early Oct. But it can be limited to 3830SPX
Going to start buying tomorrow if we hit 3636-40SPX and add at 3588SPX.
My pathway is this:
- bottom on Tuesday
- up move into 3rd/4th
- down into Oct 7th
Dont get trapped with shorts next 2 days!
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 25 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 25 Week
ES' short was awesome.
Possible Scenarios are considered:
1) Short on test and reject of 3792 // lower trend line
2) Long if 3540-3600 // 3711 // dotted and solid trend line is supported
Weekly: High vol down bar close off low = minor demand
Daily: High vol down bar close off low = minor demand.
H3: Possible bottom reversal = Demand > Supply
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
3903 3792 3717
3642 3540-3600
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
S&P500 – not the bear market, just a correction!Hello, everyone!
You know me as a Bitcoin analyst, but S&P500 have the strong influence on cryptomarket. Today I revealed that the “bear market” on traditional markets is going to end.
I use quotes because it is not the true bear market, just the correction. I will explain you why. What is the bear market – it’s the 5 waves Elliott cycle to the downside, but if we try to count waves the potential wave 4 overlaps the wave 1 – it means that it’s not the waves 1 and 4. Thus we have to consider it as the ABC correction. Here this ABC is represented as a zigzag. Wave A consists of the zigzag abc inside it. The same is true for wave B. Now the price continues to draw the wave C. The target for wave C could be the 0.618 Fibonacci extension ($3550). Also the MACD indicator on the 1W timeframe showing us the potential strong bullish divergence – it’s the insane reversal signal for the end of the “bear market”.
SPX all eyes on 3721 number!Resistance is at 3725-30 now.
Maj support on closing level today is 3721SPX!
The price is below that number.
So if we close below (and Im looking for a rally back to 3730 and fail) then we could see my 3580 as early as Monday!
Next week supports are:
- 3662
- 3636
- 3580
- 3540-45
ES next stop is at 3666!
We are below all the possible support fib extensions, new lows are coming!
How do you feel now about 5500 call (I know some of you watch my channel here), being wrong all year and not admitting it its a diagnosis!
Dont get trapped going into the weekend, being in cash is a position too
P.S. I got stopped on todays lotto calls, 50% cut, thats why its a lotto
SPX S&P500 The Bigger PictureThe FED Meeting on September 20-21 is expected to deliver 75bps hike.
The decision will be announced on September 21.
Some key data to consider:
The annual inflation rate in the US eased for a second straight month to 8.3% in August of 2022, from 8.5% in July, but above market forecasts of 8.1%.
Inflation rose for food (11.4%, the most since 1979), shelter (6.2%, the most since 1984), and used cars and trucks (7.8%).
Core CPI increased 6.3% on a year, the most since March, and up markedly from 5.9% hit in both June and July.
So there is a change to see even an 100bps hike next week!
Under those circumstances, the economic hurricane coming our way that Jamie Dimon was preaching, could become reality:
If we look at the S&P chart, we can easily presume a retracement to the $3714 support line, followed by, worst case scenario, a drop to $3100 if we are going to see more earnings revisions, like FDX did this week.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.