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US SPX 500

SPX Aug 17th updateExpected a high being hit today, we got it. Expected a close below 4308.5SPX, we got it. Expected a red close, got it only on NASDAQ and Small Caps. As long as we stay below 4340SPX we should see lower is my next expectation. VIX (see my update earlier) has a clear ISH pattern. Main support is 4177SPX Tomorrow must watch numbers are - 4285 and especially 75, failure of holding the last number can be a good sign of the local top, need much lower to mark the maj top! - Resistance is the same 4308.50 on the closing level. - Upper target zone is around 4330-34SPX in case it wants to tag it, Im not playing it and will be looking for a short setup instead. I expect this to dive down to 4150+- SPX zone by the 24th-26th and one more push to lower low /double top, or if broken above - 4425+ sometime early Sep. Not favouring the second scenario, but can be a case for the larger B wave top in Jan. Im not in the camp of new ATH's and the lows being in, I dont change my count to fit the price or put many counts to be right regardless. If Im wrong at some point (everyone makes mistakes), I will admit and only then change my view. We are not even close to have that view changed at this point. Also want to bring the attention to Sep and hope many will make a note of this warning - there is a chance we could crash that month and my charts do reflect that. Will it be serious or not as much, I have no idea, but I see some serious signs of something happening that month. You have been warned. Have a good night
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
17
30 days of chop.my main target of 4300 has been hit. --- exactly 30 days from today, a majority of all of the puts in this market will expire worthless. there is tens of millions of far otm contracts across the board. majority of the stonk market is apparently short 👀. majority of the market also tends to be wrong, every single time. maybe this time is different, but something tells me it's not. --- i'm theorizing the market will chop sideways for 30 straight days, to make sure all of those contracts expire worthless. maybe it puts in another leg up after (if this turns out to be a phase of re-accumulation), maybe it completely falls off a cliff after this ugly chop (if this turns out to be a phase of distribution), but whatever happens - i think it will happen in exactly 30 days from today. if you're on the short side, ponder upon what i'm saying here. ✌
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
3
SPX hit 4308.50 target!Ideal target has been met! Watch to close below 4308.50, ideally we close red, tomorrow will be a bigger sell off with the bounce on the 18th. The target zone is at 4300-33, it can stretch into 20s, I will short it there, or short if we close below 4308.50 Timing should be right as per my last night update. I will post a zoomed out chart after the close with the expected pathway into Oct low. One thing to mention is I wont be holding any longs after end of this month! Sep can produce a good crash, you've been warned!
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
2
Daily analysis and day trading setups on SPX SPX500USD 20220816This is the first daily analysis and day trading plan for SPX. I am already publishing NASDAQ & DAX daily trading plans here >> NASDAQ DAX Line in the sand for SPX is 4280 but 4300 is too close so it is more like a zone of 20 points which is quite evident. The hourly bull flag is still in tact as long as Demand Zone 1 holds. Macro US Building Permits, Housing Starts, CAD CPI Buy Break: 4295, 4313, 4327, 4347 Reversal: 4279, 4262, 4253, 4240, 4216 Sell Break: 4281, 4285, 4254, 4243 Reversal: 4316, 4330, 4350, 4374 Green Goblin levels are here >>> Fibonacci Confluence levels are here >>>
OANDA:SPX500USD
by TradingIndian
SPX gap fill is at 4300.16, maj resisatcne is at 4308.50Its a turning day tomorrow, the 16th, expect it to be an intraday or a closing high. Super close to the Gap Fill at 4300.16 and my main target/resisatnce at 4308.50. Had that number since Jun, didnt expect it to get hit mid of Aug but EOM or first days of Sep. Timing for the low is on Aug 26th and I expect 4010-30 to hold! Might get to 4050-60SPX only, will calculate target when I see that we topped. 4200 will have to be lost at min, today this number could rise. This Fri Max Pain is at 405 SPY, something to watch! So I was thinking if we see a low on the 26th, then there is a high chance we stretch into the Sep OPEX for bear max pain and suck every bull in at 4425-35SPX. That was my ideal target before we saw lower in June, now its secondary target.
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
13
SPX is in the target and maj resistance zoneNothing much to add since my most recent updates. The price is in the target zone I had for a while now. Was expecting a good size pullback, never happened. Im still in some trapped ES short, as well as RTY from Fri close and some SPY puts. We got right into the Yellow dotted line I had for months now, its the main resistance line and right in our 4308SPX target zone. Maj daily resistance is at 4308-35SPX Maj support (and I expect it to hold) is at 4000-08SPX Might stretch into 4930-50, but low 4k has higher chance in holding on the upcoming pullback. As noted on the RTY chart, there is a chance we wont tag 200MA, too many are looking for one to get hit. We should get some sort of pullback next week, how deep it will be, I dont know, but it can be quite fast. Maj turn dates are the 16th and week of 29th, Im assuming that week will mark the high, might be lower high. We have 9 unfilled gaps since Jun low, I expect those to get filled by Oct low. Im expecting a double bottom or a marginal lower hit in to below 3450SPX zone before a good size rally into EOY. Sep comes up as a panic month, I expect a good size reversal that month and it can get quite ugly in Oct. I see some serious market movers Sep/Oct time, might stretch into Nov Midterm elections. Those in power will do everything to rig it, so expect more international instability as well as something serious in the states. Interesting and very dangerous times we live in. Very important to gap down tomorrow to mark temp high. Expect a counter trend next 2 weeks into week of 29th. 2 scenarios Im watching: - top in main target zone of 4308-35SPX - top at 4425SPX in case it wants to extend into mid of Sep
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
6
$ES - What to do now?$ES - What to do now? This weekend, I present you many ideas in various assets and here's one chart of $ES is last and its important chart I am keeping an eye on for LT positioning. We've had great bullish momentum due to 'we are at neutral rates', CPI steady - For now and all data is excelling perfectly this week we do have FOMC minutes and as have US Retail sales. The key areas I am keeping in mind when it comes to fundamentals is the factoring in credit cards, has been escalating further and real estate is in trouble due to obviously high rates. There are many other bearish fundamental factors but then we have the bullish momentum side technically - ES is bullish and the fundamentals less rate hikes of hights 75 is less anticipated and further slow down leading DXY to pull back and ES, RYT, NQ & even looking at QQQ to excel further and this could be the bottom of 3700 areas for ES. Technically - we are a trendline resistance which comes at the levels of: 4300-4200 areas. A key pull back towards areas of support of: 4180, 4000 & 3900. Are the areas I am keeping an eye on. TJ
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trade_Journal
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 AUG 15 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 AUG 15 Week Previous supply zone has been tested and accepted. Preference remains long on retracement. Possible Scenarios are considered: 1) Continuation of uptrend for long on retracement 2) Temporary short opportunity on rejection of channel supply line. Weekly: Ave vol up bar = minor strength Daily: Ave vol up bar = minor strength H4: High vol narrow spread = weakness Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4368 4303 4204 4071 3950 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
V-Shaped Recovery......is highly unlikely. The chart above shows the entire price history of the S&P 500. Each candle is a 6-month period. The channel that you see is a regression channel. It shows how far above or below the mean the stock market is at a given time. At the close of 2021, the stock market hit the 2-sigma deviation from the mean. This is about as over-extended as it ever has been. The Federal Reserve has been pumping the stock market up for decades with lower and lower interest rates and quantitative easing: Looking at this 6-month chart, if it were a daily chart, how would you trade it? The yearly chart is no less concerning. Here's the yearly chart of the S&P 500: I am not posting this to incite trading based on fear. Never buy or sell based on emotions. I still hold plenty of long positions myself since yearly charts are not to be traded on. These charts, however, call for extreme defensive plays. Have your stop losses in place. Trade strategically and consider how much risk you're taking for how much reward. It's highly unlikely that we're going to have a V-shaped recovery in the stock market and that we will casually blast through new all-time highs for years. You can read my post below about the extreme yield curve inversion that has already occurred, and my post on why I believe the charts are saying a significant recession is coming.
SP:SPX
by SpyMasterTrades
23