US SPX 500
SP500 in the hammer zoneSP500 reached a strong reversal area where price reacted in the previous week. I was expecting a little pump in my previous ideas, and honestly i wasn't expecting it to rise so much. But i am holding my short trades and i am adding more here, consider i expect a selloff this month. First target the support zone at 4990
SPX500USD - Bullish Momentum UnderwaySPX500USD has been undergoing some bullish momentum over the last few days. This may lead to a potential push to the $5350 region over the next few days. Further movement will take time to tell; but overall it’s currently looking good.
All 4 of our Core YinYang Oscillators and exhibiting Bullish Momentum; however since there is such low Volume, it’s hard to say how strong this momentum will be. Nonetheless prepare yourself for a potential movement upwards in the short term.
S&P500 Valuation In Current Economic EnvirontmentHello everyone,
as title says, today I would like to speak about the S&P500 and its market valuation in the current economic environment.
Since I prefer to study and analyze markets on higher time frames rather than day-to-day, this Case Study is based on quarter outlook (3M chart), to capture most of the available information using metrics that have significant inputs and outputs on the economy e.g. Interest Rates, Employment Rates, company Bankcruptcies & others.
I decided to make this Case Study since I believe we may be on the verge of facing difficulties on micro and macro levels, which in history led into a downturn of equity markets for a prolonged period of time.
It may be argued that some of these Cases are not relevant since they don't include full data, and that would be fair. But at the same time, I would point out that these data and used Cases are the most relevant to this day, because of their similarities to today's economic environment even if not in a full manner.
For better understanding, you need to take a look at Pic1.
(Pic1.:S&P500 chart with color legend)
-Captured time windows consist of the US Unemployment rate moving from relatively low levels to higher values in times when Interest Rates are relatively High. To make a better educated guess I included US bankcrupcies as an overall business health indicator.
-Inflation Rate or Federal Reserve Balance could be used additionally.
Historically, I would argue that the most similar to this day looks Case Nr.4
In both, we have:
a, rallied to ATH in unfavorable market conditions (3to4, 5to6?)
b, unemployment rate curving up from the bottom
c, bankcruptcies curving up from the bottom
d, interest rates are high (and cuts are around horizont)
Why is that important?
Because as Pic2. shows:
(Pic2.:S&P500 drawdown from top)
-In all of these cases market bled and did not start turning around BEFORE FED found the bottom rate.
And they have not even started cutting yet..
That in my view is a huge red flag and it brings attention to "Not IF we are about to go lower, but WHEN we are about to start going lower."
It may be a month, two or three... but if we take a look at what the chart and those economic metrics suggest, it's most likely will not be a pretty ride until all of those are resolved in favorable manner for markets, which may take year or longer as historical cases shown..
Unless they decide to print NEW TRILLION$$$
Hopefully, this case study was helpful for some of you in further market navigation.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot to me.
Also, if you are interested in more updates or you would like to receive personal analysis with lower time frame updates daily, let me know in the comments or DM.
Best Regards,
Joe
SPX500USD Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 5078.5.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 4997.7 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
🧑🎓 XAU/USD ANALYSE 📈 UPDATED MORE READ THE CAPTION?By Wolrd Forex Traders Hello 👋
"G old Market Analysis 💡📊👀
4H Time Frame Chart 📉🕒
_Bearish Signal ⚠️👎_
We're seeing a potential short opportunity in the Gold market, with a current price of 2354. Our target is 2300, which is a key support level. A breakout below this level could lead to a significant price decrease 📉💸!
_Analysis 🤔📊_
The 4H time frame chart shows a bearish trend, with a series of lower highs and lower lows. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also indicating a bearish signal, with a reading of . The Moving Averages are aligned, providing additional confirmation for a short position 💪📉.
_Trade Strategy 💰📉_
Sell: 2354 (short)
Target: 2300 (next support level)
Stop Loss: 2380 (bearish warning) ⚠️🚨
If the breakout occurs at 2300, the next target is 2270.
Note: This analysis is based on a 4H time frame chart and is subject to market changes and fluctuations. Always use proper risk management techniques and consult with a financial advisor if necessary.
Follow me for more market insights and analysis! #Gold #XAUUSD #tradingview #bearish #marketanalysis #trading #finance #investing"
SPX500USD Will Move Higher! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 5110.2.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 5146.0 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
S&P500(US500):🔴Is it Bearish...?!🔴(Details on caption)By examining the ES1! 4-hour chart (S&P), we can figure out that, the market structure is bearish, so we looking for a sell position.
In that case, the price had a bearish reaction to all of the bearish Pd Array, so we can expect a bearish reaction on the balance price range (BPR).
In my perspective, sell-side liquidity is a draw on liquidity. Until this sell-side is not purging I don't think about buy position.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️15/04/2024
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
Aggressive rate cuts are off the tableThe SPX retreated nearly 3% from its all-time highs following last week’s print showing a higher-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2024. This marks a second consecutive month of accelerating CPI in the United States, which presents an obstacle for the FED in its more than two-year-long battle against inflation. Plus, it makes it increasingly unlikely that the central bank will engage in aggressive rate cutting as is still widely expected. Not only is it improbable that the FED will ease its monetary policy during the FOMC meeting between 30th April and 1st May 2024, but the latest print puts future rate cuts in jeopardy as well.
Since the start of the hiking cycle, we have believed that it will be challenging for the FED to lower rates quickly. Thus far, this opinion has been supported by elevated and sticky inflation. Furthermore, rising prices of commodities make an arguably good case for this to stay true also in the upcoming months, tying FED’s hands for a little longer. In turn, this raises the chances of the central bank constricting the economy too much, leading to an economic accident.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. Yellow arrows indicate important technical developments in the past month. As the reality of no aggressive rate cuts is starting to sink in, there is a good chance that volatility will stay elevated in the near future.
Illustration 1.02
The price of WTI crude oil rose nearly 20% this year. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have been playing an important role in influencing its price over the past few months. If there is a broader conflict between Israel and Iran (which is at the highest odds in the past ten years), then oil could rise in the upper range between $90 and $100, putting further pressure on inflation.
Illustration 1.03
The image above shows the SPX in the ascending channel. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout below the upper bound of the channel.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bullish (stalling)
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
US30 HEAD AND SHOULER??Simple trading - Head and shoulders
Us30 has broken the neck-line of the Head and shoulder pattern on the 4hr. US30 is bullish on the higher time frames so always be ready for a pullback to the upside. Looking at the daily chart to see if the price will retest previous support and turn resistance.
Due to the lack of bullish momentum on the smaller timeframes, I would NOT advise taking a buy trade to previous support as the market is making lower highs and lower lows. This clearly indicates that the bears are in control. At any moment the price could drop and you do not want to be caught in that.
Be patient and wait for the price to play out. Look to take a sell positions
in the short term at respectable levels
VIX, no potential to break out?the closer Weekly BB to resistance, the better odds for VIX break out. Whilst everything is possible, I don't think it has the power or potential to break out.
TLT feels like bottoming somewhere this summer? depends on the inflation metrics. But FED itself believes inflation is coming down.
Often these one-time events are bought by the smart money. Depends if the conflict (mid east) escalates to something more? Maybe there's a broad market risk, outside the quality.
Is this BEARISH divergence forming on the $SPY of any concern?Looking at the 1M on the AMEX:SPY , it's leading me to think if we close below last months low, we should be confirming regular bearish divergence, giving us a target of at least to the 21e . Please see chart for reference of current target.
fastlanewinners.com
Helping you map out your gameplanE-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5253.25, up 0.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,295.00, down 5.75
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures were little changed to start the week as traders and investors await tomorrow’s CPI slate. Given last Thursday's fallout and Friday's stronger-than-expected headline job creation, one could perceive the consolidation as healthy. While there was some construction within the Treasury complex yesterday, we must also keep a close eye on rates as we move through the data-heavy middle of the week.
Price action in E-mini S&P futures held an early low yesterday after the opening bell, creating first key support at 5245.25-5246.50, while E-mini NQ futures have a similar mark with major three-star support at 18,228-18,249. The bears must test and violate these levels in order to potentially break the consolidation ahead of CPI. To the upside, a move out above second key resistance aligning with Friday’s high at 5268.75-5272.50 in the E-mini S&P and 18,406-18,446 in the E-mini NQ could begin to spark a pre-CPI melt, back into the thick of the damage, where indices began rolling over Thursday.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 5264.25*, 5268.75-5272.50**, 5279.25-5282**, 5295.25-5300.75***, 5207-5208.50***
Pivot: 5252.50-5253.25
Support: 5245.25-5246.50**, 5231.25-5237***, 5224.50**, 5212.75-5215.50**, 5203.75-5206.75***, 5191.50-5196.75***, 5163.75**, 5145-5147.25***, 5123.75-5124.25***, 5112.25***
Micro Bitcoin (April)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 72,110, up 4,355
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 72,110-72,530**, 73,410-73,600***, 74,800-75,300***, 80,503***, 82,110***
Pivot: 71,800
Support: 69,610-69,900**, 68,650-68,900**, 67,755***, 66,330-66,500***, 64,715-65,260***, 62,955-63,435**, 60,830-61,680***
NQ (June)
Resistance: 18,370-18,376**, 18,406-18,446**, 18,475-18,498**, 18,568-18,607***, 18,691-18,709***
Pivot: 18,300-18,310
Support: 18,228-18,249***, 18,173-18,191**, 18,102*** 18,051-18,070***, 18,006-18,029***, 17,767-17,881****
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.