SP500 Expecting a dropI think SP500 is on the way to perform a great drop. Looking on H4 timeframe we can see a clean break below main trendline and a retest of it. I think today we will see some volatility around the beginning of the NY Session. I expect a fake moves first to the upside to grab some liquity, next we should see a drop till support zone around $5130
US SPX 500
S&P500 Analysis: Could The Bear Market Be Over? 2022 was a brutal year for everybody in the stock market with the s&p declining -20% and many stocks straight up collapsing, some of you may be asking: "Is the bear market coming to an end soon?" and while i cannot be for certain due to a variety of factors, there is at least a case to be made for bulls here:
-Potential Higher Low
-Vix staying mostly sideways during the s&p's latest drop
-Potential Inverse H&S
But also something to point out is that 3800 has become a baseline for the s&p where bears have not been able to commit below this level for very long in the past, but as of recently it would appear that the level is acting as a major level of support, so watch this very carefully
(Also on a side note: During the August to October bearish wave while a lower low was created during that period of time, bears became way too exhausted at the time and were unable to make a substantially lower low to around the 3200's (maybe wicking to mid-upper 3100's), which if the wave lasted a few more weeks could have been achived)
In conculsion whether this turns out to be true or not one thing to remember is to never become complacent in this wild, volatile market, it can always turn on a dime one way or another, so be careful out there and remember that none of this is actual financial advice, just my personal opinions
US500 Guys, using the maximum filter for 3 days - signals were sent that everyone had arrived)
+ news seen today that everyone is long on shares)
will probably be damped soon
There has never been a total overheating of such signals.
SP:SPX TVC:SPX CBOE:SPX SPREADEX:SPX OANDA:SPX500USD AMEX:SPXL
There is also a strong downward signal this week
End-of-Quarter sell-off effectAccording to ChatGPT:
Yes, end-of-quarter sell-offs are a phenomenon observed in the stock market where investors may sell off their holdings toward the end of a financial quarter. There are several reasons why such sell-offs occur:
Portfolio Rebalancing: Institutional investors, such as mutual funds and pension funds, often rebalance their portfolios at the end of each quarter to maintain their desired asset allocation. If certain stocks have performed well and become overweighted in the portfolio, they may sell some of those stocks to bring the allocation back in line with their strategy.
Window Dressing: Fund managers may engage in window dressing at the end of each quarter. This involves buying or selling securities to improve the appearance of their portfolio holdings in reports to clients or shareholders.
Quarterly Earnings Reports: Companies typically release their quarterly earnings reports shortly after the end of each quarter. If these reports are disappointing or if there are concerns about future earnings growth, investors may sell off their holdings in those companies.
Tax Considerations: Individual investors may engage in tax-loss harvesting toward the end of the quarter to realize losses for tax purposes. This could lead to increased selling pressure on certain stocks.
These are just a few reasons why end-of-quarter sell-offs may occur in the stock market. However, it's important to note that not every quarter sees significant sell-offs, and market behavior can vary depending on a wide range of factors including economic conditions, geopolitical events, and investor sentiment.
SPX500USD Will Go Down From Resistance! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 5237.5.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 5193.0 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Bullish But Wait Until Feb 27th to go Big LongThe black arrow/path is my near-term forecast, I expect price to trade along this trajectory. As the title indicates, the market is near-term bullish but don't enter long or add until Feb 27th for the following reasons:
1) chart perspective : The structure is setting up for a sustained break of 5039 to make a final leg higher to complete a smaller degree wave 5 (I didn't draw the Elliot Wave Count in my chart, just trust me that we just completed a smaller degree wave 4 and are looking for confirmation that 5 has begun). Price will continue slightly higher for the next 1-3 days (2/22-2/26) and then consolidate - likely forming a w fractal - through Feb 28th (next Wednesday). After that it will make the sustained break higher and run through early March before topping.
2) logical perspective : new bulls (especially retail) is going to chase this gap up in SPY tomorrow (extra FOMO due to the NVDA jump) and they'll buy ignorant Feb 23 - Mar 1 OTM calls that are designed to expire worthless. If you're not already in you're late, its all good I'm not in yet. Simultaneously the perma-bears will pile in thinking its "over-extended" ... everybody playing loses temporarily.
Waiting until 2/27 will also give this enough tome to confirm long, a break back below 5000 is a warning sign for bulls and a break back below 4969 is Bearish.
The play is to wait until the implied volatility on calls for Mar 15 expiry or later cools off while price consolidates around 5039 (SPY 501). Buy SPY 505.00 calls on Feb 27 to prepare for the bigger move staring on Feb 28 (earliest expiration you should be eying is Mar 15, but I'm going to go out to April).
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BREAKDOWN of Key Levels and Path to Target:
- Breakout level = 5039.20
- Initial target range = 5050-5058, with point target 5074
-The upside continuation to this range will happen fast by 2/22-2/26, then it will consolidate between 5017 and 5088 as it prepares to make a sustained break of 5039. Don't FOMO.
- SPX and general market will make its main run from 2/28 to 3/15/2024. Goal Target = 5153 , but it can go as high as 5208 before consolidating again or pulling back.
- Once you follow these directions and enter long (unless I post an update saying "cancel that"), the trailing stop loss will be the dotted black upsloping line.
~Good Luck
This is the word of the Lord .
US500 Trade IdeaAnalyzing the 1-hour chart for the S&P 500, the price has been exhibiting an upward trajectory. We can discern the formation of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting a prospective US500 bullish trend, however beware the double top and strong sell off. Im anticipating a move back up to rebalance and we could see further downside so approach this with caution and good risk management. The strategy involves identifying an opportune long entry point during the retracement, with the aim of capitalizing on the previous high levels, as highlighted by the chart markup. It is crucial to note that this information is solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice.
SPX500USD Is Going Up! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 5149.7.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 5195.3 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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SPX500USD Is Bullish! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 5117.4.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 5183.6 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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Have we found the top of S&P at 5110? The month of February saw an incredible bull run up to 5110.
The high was created on the 29th of February and as of March 1st, the high has not been broken. There is bearish divergence on D1 and H4.
The upward channel is at the risk of being broken after 2 months.
We have taken a short position at 5104 with a stop loss at 5150 and a reward of 4750.
Good luck!
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S&P 500: Resilient Rise Challenges Upper ResistanceThe S&P 500's latest weekly close at 4971 reflects ongoing bullish momentum, positioned just below the upper Bollinger Band resistance of 5136.3. The market's resilience is further underscored by the MACD's positive divergence above its signal line. Looking down, the Simple Moving Average at 4854.7 serves as the pivotal support, reinforcing the trend's strength. As the index navigates between these technical boundaries, the near-term outlook suggests a cautious but optimistic view for potential upward continuation.