SPX Big downside possible(Elliott Wave Analysis)As per the current count it looks like we are in last leg up of the complex correction for the completion of Wave .Y (Yellow) once the same is done which should be confirmed by a break of the Pink channel to the downside we can see a huge leg down which can take SPX to the 2530 levels or even lower.
Bearish sign : Break of channel to downside.
Expected targets : 2530 and lower.
Stop loss : Swing High once the same is formed.
Spx_elliott_wave
Elliott wave analysis of SPX (S&P 500): 4hr tfMy previous post for the SPX (S&P 500) can be found here:
A possible Elliott wave contracting triangle was discussed in the post to capture price action from January 29, 2018 to April 25 when the analysis was initially provided.
SPX (S&P 500) currently is sitting just above B-D trendline for the contracting triangle. The relative strength index (RSI) is also shown here and does have a rising, positive slope, which argues for more upside movement in SPX (S&P 500).
The projection of price action using this Elliott wave structure still stands as provided in the previous post.
The ideal point of entry (POE) is placed at ~$2718.73 (dotted horizontal line) when price action attempts a break out above the termination point of wave D of the contracting triangle.
The point of invalidation (POI) of this analysis still stands as provided in the previous post.
SPX to move higher (Elliott Wave Analysis)Expecting the start of Wave 3 in the SPX, as long as the market stays above the black trendline this count should be considered valid.
If the count is correct then we will soon see formation of new highs.
From a trading point of view the invalidation level is at 2320.
As this market progresses and confirms the count, I will update it further for possible targets.
SPX correction continues (Elliott Wave Analysis)In my last report when SPX was trading around 2370 I pointed out the possibility that only small upside till 2390 remains, after that SPX made a high near the 2400 region and then has been in a Zig Zag type of correction.
At this point it seems that SPX is in Wave C of the Zig Zag and within Wave C it seems to just have completed the Wave 3, which means that I expect a small leg down from this point on uptill the 2315.50 region and in most bearish case uptill the 2300 region.
After this leg down we will see an upward movement which could either be Wave X indicating a continuation of the correction or the Wave 1 that will initiate a fresh impulse, that is something that will become clear as the market progresses.
Invalidation :
If the market hits 2342 from this point on that that would signify that Wave C probably has already completed.
S&P 500 Leading Diagonal on the Daily Chart (SPX Elliott Wave)In my previous count I predicted that SPX will head higher in Wave 5 for targets around 2370 and 2500+, since then the movement has been as expected, as of now there are multiple probabilities that can play out.
Probability 1 : The Wave 1 of Wave 5 has formed an Expanding Leading Diagonal (Count in Yellow)
Probability 2 : The Wave 1 of Wave 5 completed around 2117 and now the Wave under progression is Wave 3 of Wave 3 of Wave 5 (Count in Red)
Probability 3 : The yellow count is actually an Ending Diagonal, least fitting probability.
Triggers :
1. If the current formation is a Leading Diagonal then we can expect a retracement upto the 2015 to 1990 mark.
2. If the formation is a 3rd of the 3rd ( Probability 2 ) then we should see a strong break of the upper trendline with good volume as 3rd of the 3rd are strong.
3. A very swift break below 1988 would be the 1st sign that the formation was an Ending Diagonal.
Which formation plays out will be apparent very soon, you can use the Triggers with lower time counts to take a trading decision.
By personal Bias is bullish for the long term and Bearish for short term, Probability 1.