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US Market Technicals Ahead (01 Mar – 05 Mar 2021)Even after President Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic aid bill narrowly passed the House in the early hours of Saturday, the shakeup in stocks prompted by the rapid run up in Treasury yields looks set to continue to be a major focus for markets in the coming week. Investors will be focusing on Friday’s employment report, which is expected to show that virus restrictions kept a lid on jobs growth in February. Appearances by several Federal Reserve speakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell will also be closely watched. Meanwhile, earnings season is wrapping up, but retailers will still be reporting, with Target ($TGT), Kohl’s ($KSS) and Nordstrom ($JWN) due to publish figures on Tuesday, followed by Costco ($COST) on Thursday. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) remains in red for the week, furthering its correction by -2.37%. The selling of individual equities was most felt on two separate occasion; on Monday 22nd February ($SPX: -0.56%), and Thursday 25th February ($SPX: -2.60%). It is important to note there were several technical structure being broken on the highlighted Thursday itself; Price Action breakdown on 20DMA (3rd Attempt in last 3 months) Price Action breakdown on 50DMA (2nd Attempt in last 2 months) Price Action breakdown on 4 months Trend Channel (2nd Attempt in last 4 months) Breakdown of immediate support at 3,870 with volume exceeding past 50 trading sessions average by +87%. Increasing implied volatility on the week of selloff. On the flip side, every attempted breakdown on the confluence of above technical structure is accompanied with an immediate, and substantial recovery on $SPX (ie. 1st February to 5th February $SPX: +5.35%). At the current junction, $SPX remains bullish at a higher low. Further signs of weakness in this correction will require $SPX to breach its next classical support level at 3,700, for the first significant lower low to be established since September 2020. It remains wise to capitalize on the potential investment opportunities with a prudent risk level. Immediate resistance for $SPX is currently at 3,830, a support turned resistance level. Tug of war between stocks, rising bond yields The shift into energy, financial and other stocks set to benefit from the economic reopening has accelerated, while rapidly climbing Treasury yields are pressuring tech stocks that have led market gains for years. Tech stocks are particularly sensitive to rising yields because their value rests heavily on future earnings, which are discounted more deeply when interest rates go up. A dovish sounding Fed together with expectations for more stimulus have propelled yields higher and fueled concerns about inflation and the two-track market looks set to continue, at least in the short team. February jobs report With President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package advancing to the Senate Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for February will show how the recovery in the labor market is faring. Government data late last week showed that initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined to their lowest in three months, indicating that the slowing infection rate is allowing the labor market to gain some traction. Retail sales also rebounded in January. Economists are expecting the U.S. economy to have created 165,000 new jobs in February, after January’s 49,000 increase. But the winter storms that swept across the South may complicate the picture. Powell speech With the rapid climb in Treasury yields roiling the stock market investors may be hoping for Fed officials to address the selloff in Treasuries. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak about the economy at an online event hosted by the Wall Street Journal on Thursday. So far there has been little sign of anxiety among Fed officials about higher Treasury yields. Last week Powell said the move higher was the result of a stronger economy but added that the rate of economic recovery has slowed in recent months and reiterated that monetary policy will remain easy for some time to come.
ULong
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (1 Feb – 5 Feb 2021)A big week for earnings, including reports from Amazon ($AMZN), Alphabet ($GOOGL), Exxon Mobil ($XOM) and Pfizer ($PFE). Stimulus negotiations in Washington and the first jobs report of 2021 (January) will all be major events to watch in the coming week, but they are likely to be overshadowed by the standoff between retail investors and Wall Street hedge funds. Investors will be watching closely to see if the short squeezes driven by retail investors continue in what could be a bumpy week for stocks. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) ended the January flat, with a weekly loss of -3.47%. The correction have breached the multi-month long Trend Channel, along with 20SMA support convincingly, with the month’s highest transactional volume witnessed on 28th January. Additionally 50SMA was also breached on Friday session. This pullback affirms the technical Bearish Divergence between price rally and volume decline highlighted last week. At the current junction, $SPX remains trading above 3,660 level, a classical support level established at the start of 2021. The breach of this support will see S&P500 trades at a cumulative loss for 2021. 1. The big squeeze Last week saw retail investors using Robinhood and other apps drive a frenzied rally in shares of GameStop ($GME), AMC ($AMC) and other companies championed on social media platforms including Reddit’s WallStreetBets, that had been heavily shorted by hedge funds. U.S. stock indexes suffered their biggest weekly fall since late October as the short squeezes saw hedge funds sell stocks to cover their losses, despite positive earnings results from market heavyweights like Apple ($AAPL) and Microsoft ($MSFT). Some market watchers are concerned that the wild rally may be a fresh sign of overexuberance that could foreshadow volatility for the broader stock market, while others believe it is more of a sideshow. 2. Earnings With quarterly earnings season in full swing, market participants are looking at whether companies can justify high valuations. “By and large the surprises have been positive, even more so than typical and by and large companies are showing positive operating leverage where they are able to grow earnings a little bit faster than they are able to grow revenue,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L.Putnam Investment Management in Wellesley, Massachusetts. Tech giants Alphabet ($GOOGL) and Amazon ($AMZN) are both due to report after the market close on Tuesday, followed by Qualcomm ($QCOM), Snap ($SNAP) and Pinterest ($PINS) later in the week. Some big names in the closely watched healthcare sector are also to report, including Pfizer ($PFE), GlaxoSmithKline ($GSK), AbbVie ($ABBV), Biogen ($BIIB), Gilead Sciences ($GILD), Merck ($MRK) and Bristol-Myers Squibb ($BMY). 3. January jobs report The January nonfarm payrolls report will give markets the first look at the health of the labor market inherited by U.S. President Joe Biden. The report is expected to show a slight uptick in hiring after the economy shed 140,000 jobs in December (mostly from restaurants and bars), but more substantial improvements are unlikely to come until there is a broader re-opening of the economy. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.7% – almost twice the level that it was just prior to the pandemic. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week said that the economic recovery hinges on the progress of the vaccination rollout. “There’s nothing more important to the economy than people getting vaccinated,” Powell said.
ULong
by jfsrevg
SPX500USD 2021 Jan 25 Week SPX500USD 2021 Jan 25 Week After the recent high showing supply, 2nd last bar again is a sign of weakness. Besides, it has fallen out of channel and If price broke 3820 and it becomes resistance and let's see if a lower high is formed to confirm change in trend in the near term. Resistant3 = 3927.5 Resistant2 = 3883.90 - 3894.20 Resistant1 = 3862 - 3869 Support1 = 3820 - 3833 Support2 = 3774.5 - 3784 Support3 = 3723.5 - 3728 Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful. Have a safe and successful trading week ahead. OANDA:SPX500USD
OANDA:SPX500USD
by paradox677
US Market Technicals Ahead (19 Jan – 22 Jan 2021)The holiday shortened week will see Joe Biden inauguration as the 46th president of the United States on Wednesday with investors waiting to see how his plans for stimulus relief and tackling the pandemic will roll out. Janet Yellen’s confirmation hearing as the U.S.’s first female Treasury secretary is set to take place on Tuesday. The fourth-quarter earnings season continues next week, with companies such as IBM ($IBM), Netflix ($NFLX), Intel ($INTC) and P&G ($PG) reporting their results. The European Central Bank is to hold its latest policy meeting against a background of renewed lockdowns to contain the pandemic. Meanwhile, a raft of PMI data from the U.S, Eurozone, Japan, and the UK on Friday will lay bare the state of the global economy at the start of 2021. Fourth quarter and full year GDP data out of China on Monday could show that it was the only major world economy to have expanded in 2020. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) underwent a correction of -1.98% (-76 points), with majority of the losses experienced on Friday after market missing the estimates of US. Retail Sales for December (-0.7% MoM vs 0%. MoM). With the above, the highlighted Bearish Hanging Man candlestick pattern last week is currently in play. At the current junction, the $SPX remains firmly within the congested 2 months trend channel, with 20DMA supporting the rally since 4th November 2020. The significance of 20DMA towards $SPX daily current price action is also observed in the various rebound highlighted in the chart (arrow), particularly thrice in December 2020 and once in January 2021. The immediate support to watch for any further weaknesses is at 3,660 level. This level would see $SPX breaking down the highlighted trend channel convincingly, along with the first break of a minor classical support established on the opening week of 2021. 1. Biden bump? Joe Biden will be inaugurated as the 46th U.S. president Wednesday, taking over the leadership of a country ravaged by the pandemic and facing deep socio-economic divisions. Biden has announced a $1.9 trillion stimulus package, which includes $1,400 stimulus checks but this may prove a double-edged sword for investors, bolstering optimism over the outlook for the economic recovery while raising worries over how the U.S. will afford it. The S&P 500 has risen in the first 100 calendar days of eight out of the last 10 presidential terms, but Biden’s first 100 days may be more fraught than those of his predecessors. He needs to stimulate the economy quickly, but the narrow Democrat majority in Congress means the size and timing of the package remain uncertain. 2. Earnings Investors will be anxious to see whether upcoming earnings results validate expectations for a strong rebound in 2021. U.S. stocks are at record highs, boosted largely by optimism that the vaccine rollout will allow for a recovery, while hopes of more fiscal stimulus have also underpinned gains. Earnings reports for the last quarter of 2020 will get underway in earnest with the release of results from companies including Bank of America ($BAC), Goldman Sachs ($GS), Netflix ($NFLX), Charles Schwab ($SCHW), Procter & Gamble ($PG), United Airlines ($UAL), Intel ($INTC) and IBM ($IBM). Earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to decline 9.5% in the final quarter of 2020 from a year ago, but are expected to rebound in 2021, with a gain of 16.4% projected for the first quarter, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. 3. ECB meeting The ECB is to hold its first meeting of 2021 on Thursday. Policymakers announced extra stimulus in December, but the economic outlook has been clouded again by the discovery of new Covid-19 strains and the relatively slow pace of the vaccination rollout. Cause for concern? Not so, comments from Christine Lagarde suggest. The ECB chief predicts recovery as COVID subsides, seeing the glass as half-full, not half-empty. Germany’s economy too is cause for optimism, shrinking by a less-than-expected 5% in 2020. But prolonged lockdowns will hurt. Against this backdrop, markets will want the ECB to signal its commitment to using the full firepower of its 1.85 trillion-euro ($2.24 trillion) emergency bond-buying scheme – something on which policymakers appear to be split.
ULong
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (11 Jan – 15 Jan 2021)Market will likely be focusing on the prospects for a bigger stimulus package after Friday’s employment report showed the U.S. economy shed jobs for the first time in eight months in December amid a resurgence of Covid-19 infections. A further snapshot of how the economy is performing will be presented with upcoming Friday’s release of data on inflation and retail sales. Additionally, earnings season will get underway with major US banks set to release fourth quarter earnings results on Friday. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) continued with a 3rd consecutive week of rally, closing with a modest gain of +1.83% (68.6 points) for the opening week of 2021. This rally have continued to establish a new all time high level at 3,826 points, also breaking out of a 9 weeks trend channel congestion that was highlighted over the weeks. With plenty of eutrophic moves in highly speculative themes over the past weeks (i.e. Electric Vehicles, Bitcoin, Alternative Energy and Biotechnology), there were observation that some of the previously market-leading mega cap companies are not in participation of the week’s rally. Several of the higher profile companies, particularly the FAANG, remain either in a consolidated triangle chart pattern, or a box ranged rectangular chart pattern. Additionally, $SPX traded lower on the first two days of the year, with the month long highest sessional volume observed on Tuesday alone. At the current junction, the 20DMA have been nicely supporting $SPX in rally since 4th November 2020. The significance of 20DMA towards $SPX daily current price action is also observed in the various rebound highlighted in the chart (arrow), particularly thrice in December 2020 and once in January 2021. There is also a significant pick up in trading volume since the start of 2021, and it is imminent for market volatility to further uptick towards a 50 points ATR14 range within the next two weeks. The immediate support to watch for any potential weaknesses is at 3,780 level, a confirmation retracement for Friday’s Bearish Hanging Man candlestick pattern. Top 3 things to watch this week: 1. Stimulus hopes Stocks closed at record highs on Friday, despite data showing the U.S. economy suffered its first net loss of jobs in eight months in December, after Biden said his economic relief package will be in the trillions of dollars. Biden said his administration’s economic package will also include unemployment insurance and rent forbearance. The package is due to be unveiled on Thursday. 2. Economic data, Fed speakers The U.S. is due to release data on consumer price inflation on Wednesday, while retail sales figures for December are due out on Friday. Inflation is expected to tick slightly higher, but remain subdued, while retail sales are expected to have been dampened by the surging virus. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to speak on Thursday. The U.S. central bank has indicated that interest rates will remain on hold near zero through at least 2023 and said the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. 3. Banks kick off earnings Big banks will kick off the U.S. corporate earnings season in earnest with JPMorgan (NYSE: $JPM), Citigroup (NYSE :$C) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: $WFC) posting fourth-quarter results on Friday – the first S&P 500 companies to report for the last quarter of coronavirus-stricken 2020. Some investors expect company earnings and economic data to play a greater role in moving stock prices this year.
ULong
by jfsrevg
2
SPX"s Japanese candlestick trading signals since inception 1957Hey Traders , what's up. I know that there is allot of data, i hate that as every one else does. But, if you want to keep it simple just study, analyze and write down the Red & Green boxes they should sum up most of the study. I have included all the data here . So feel free to redo, redistribute, reuse or shar it here or outside of tradingview with anyone even with out mentioning the source. from me to humanity whom are trading SPX : - ). Moreover, If anything that this data is telling us in a very short English terms "Do not chase tops on monthly candles !!! " . Also, some monthly candles could be treated as bullish data suggesting that !!! what's up with that!!! no Golden rule for these candles. wish you all the best. ----------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Bearish Spinning Top Black 21 times : since Dec, 1961 Just looks like Evening star !!! Reds i'll treat them like bearish signals just for the record : - ) -------------------------------------------------------- profit Opportunity cost zero 300% 54 zero 6.40 zero zero 340 % 17.33 zero zero 17.18 zero 7.95 zero 34.49 % zero 19.98% 22.11 zero 10.31 zero zero 5.56% 3.61 zero 37.19 zero zero 8.21 9.48 zero zero 4.92 8.70 zero zero 28.87% 28.23 zero *********************************************************************************** Long Upper Shadow 15 times: since Nov, 1950 --------------------------------------------------------- Profit Opportunity Cost 31.80 zero zero 16.10 zero 6.28 zero 4.8 Zero 23.55 Zero 145 Zero 69.85 21.39 zero 28.49 zero 2.97 zero zero 22.31 zero 9.51 3.70 zero 2.30 zero zero 11.62 *********************************************************************** Hanging Man 8 times: Since Nov, 1951 ------------------------------------------------------- Profit Opportunity Cost 18.62 Zero 2.11 Zero Zero 3.83 Zero 6.29 Zero 12.98 Zero 17.11 Zero 49.01 Zero 16.22 ********************************************************************** Engulfing 15 signals: since Feb, 1952 -------------------------------------------- Profit Opportunity Cost Zero 23.33% Zero 17.77 13.47 zero 11.46 zero zero 13.36 4 zero zero 57 zero 27.77 zero 81.35 Zero 124.44 6.06 zero 20.76 Zero Zero 12.67 5.95 Zero Zero 14.01 ************************************************************* Marubozu Black 5 times ! : Since Apr, 1952 -------------------------------------------- profite opportunity cost zero 23.31 zero 62.06 8.11 zero zero 112 zero 15% ************************************************************ Tweezer Top 13 times : since April, 1956 ---------------------------------------------------- Profit Opportunity cost 12.36 zero 4.25 zero 3.81 zero zero 60.73 zero 34.73 zero 7.47 4.16 zero zero 14.45 zero 47.07 9.41 zero 15.14 zero 7.04 zero 12.38 zero ************************************************************* ******************************************************************************************************************************** 2/Bullish. Long Lower Shadow-Bull 27 times : since Jul,1950 ----------------------------------------------------- Profit Cost 37.20 8.53 8.28 49.59 3.38 22.42 20.42 zero 46.23 273.66 37.93 60.27 zero 8.84 40.87 zero zero 36.73 zero 33.39 3.72 19.43 3.83 6.62 6.29 14.01 4.61 25.32 18.08 2.53 8.62 44.87 ****************************************************** Marubozu White -Bull 26 times : Since Sep, 1950 -------------------------------------------------------- profit cost zero 4.60 21.45 12.15 71.55 36.09 2.3 4.15 46.07 19.25 5.86 9.08 4.01 21.27 3.85 zero 14.17 11.21 3.25 11.88 5.79 8.35 3.90 2.36 zero 4.92 3.74 2.45 3.36 ************************************************************ Spinning Top White19 times : since March 1950 Just looks like Evening star !!! Whites i'll treat them like Bullish signals just for the record : - ) --------------------------------------------------------- Profit opportunity cost zero 19% 14.20 zero 86.64 zero 29.22 zero 44.90 zero zero 31.81 8.06 zero zero 9.45 6.35 zero 17.18 zero 24.60 zero zero 4.01 10.78 zero zero 3.35 12.22 zero zero 4.94 zero 4.94 47.61 zero 13.65 zero -------------------------------------------- Summery: 63% bullish *********************************************************************************** Rising Window 21 times: Since May, 1950 -------------------------------------------------------- Profit Cost 2.51 8.04 11.22 6.11 1.85 zero 3.90 zero 8.29 12.83 13.72 26.85 3.85 3.85 zero 9.03 6.25 54.19 3.62 zero 4.28 zero 3.50 zero 11.18 ******************************************* Long Lower Shadow-Bull is actually a Doji 52-53-54- Or inverted hammer 63-86-88!!!! I might be wrong or tradingview is wrong or something else is wrong!!! **************************************************
SP:SPX
by samitrading
2