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Spxanalysis

SPX DailyThere is a potential H&S on longer time frame I mentioned before, noted on this chart as well Must hold support for the next week is at 3898-3920SPX. Has to hold on any test, otherwise the price will revisit the Oct 13th gap very quickly My ideal pathway is bottom on the 1st (I still see month of Nov close red at least compare to the previous month) and bounce into the 6th-7th high. If cycles gets inverted, then we should see the low tomorrow and high on the 1st, then it will be a first low on the 6-7th The best scenario for the EOM trade is we see low prices tomorrow am and bounce into 29th high. Then (after the 29th high) reversal down (strong) for the 1st of Dec low. 30th is showing up as a panic day on all indexes, so expect a strong move in direction of the 29th close. - The price might get the gap closed on the 29th (ideal pathway) and continue in a strong move down. Ideally its closes in direction down, it will be a good confirmation for the price going lower into the 1st low. - Ideal target is 3744-55SPX or Oct 13th gap close After the 1st low, it gets tricky. Its either makes a low on the 6th and up into the week of Dec 26th or, ideally a high and down into EOY. Jan seems to be the monthly low of this entire move down from the ATH, perfect 1 year celebration. Intraday low might not come till Mar or even May. Here is zoomed in chart link There is not much of a support below 3866 till 3744SPX, its the must hold Bear/Bull support for the next week. If looking for the extensions, I have resistance at - 4037 - 4045 - 4068-76 (main target) - 4118-20 (Maj resistance) Will be tweeting my other simple chart as can't attach it here. Im swing short and will use the next high to exit all the remaining protective longs I have. Have a great and profitable week everyone!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% SPX, 48% Cash. * CRITICAL RESISTANCE WATCH . US Equity Futures are starting the week down as Cryptos are attempting to finish the week up (barely). Markets are apparently getting spooked by the unrest in China and how it may affect demand if the CCP is to enforce stricter lockdowns with the uptick in Covid infections. It's unprecedented to see this kind of revolt in China in modern times, with chants in Shanghai for the CCP and Xi Jinping to step down ; all I can say is, bravo to the Chinese citizens for standing up to the scam that is Covid lockdowns. It's a big week for economic data so be prepared for a bit of volatility if the numbers point to more inflation. JPYUSD is up. Meanwhile DXY, US Treasuries, US Equity Futures, Cryptos, Metals, Energy, Agriculture, HSI, NI225, CNYUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 11/29; 2nd BEA Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am EST 11/30; Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech at Brookings Institute at 130pm EST 11/30; Beige Book at 2pm EST 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; November Employment Situation at 830am EST 12/02; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14 .* Price finished last week stalling at $4026, just below $4058 minor resistance which coincides with the 200MA. Volume was Low (high) due to a shortened trading session and has favored buyers for three consecutive sessions; it has also been shrinking for ten consecutive sessions which is indicative of an impending breakout/breakdown. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3867, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending sideways at 62; the next resistance is at 68 and the next support at 53. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 97 as it approaches a retest of max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 62 but is still technically testing 55 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 21 as Price continues to push higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to breakout above $4058 minor resistance + the 200MA then it will likely retest the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at $4175 resistance for the first time since 08/22/22. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely fall back to ~$3953 as support before potentially retesting $3913 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3953.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX 4H Analysis📈Trade Idea📉 🟡 #S&P500 Index 4H ✍️We can have two trading scenarios for this index. Considering that S&P is in the Equilibrium range, it can move as a continuation movement (CP) to the supply ranges in the chart (Premium), of course, with the condition of penetrating and closing a four-hour high candlestick (PDH-PWH). In this case, consider two scenarios for trading. In the first scenario, you can use the supply ranges specified in the chart to activate sell orders. The second scenario is for traders who are looking for a long stop in this index, they can use the block order limits specified in the chart. For trading in these areas, you can place your trade as a limit by observing the stop loss. 🟢Minor Order Block >🟢3640$ -3684$ 🟢Major Order Block >🟢3740$ -3780$ 🔴Minor Order block >🔴4080$ - 4120$ 🔴Major Order Block> 🔴4165$-41250$ 📊Poc (Point of Control) : 3960$ ⚠️ Margin 1% For each position. ⚠️Use Tight StopLoss. ✍️Desert Eagle 📊Analysis Method SMART Money Concept + ICT+ Volume Profile (DYOR) 📆11.27.2022 ⚠️This Analysis will be Updated⚠️ 💸Good Luck Traders.
SP:SPXLong
by Trader_Needs
SPX gapped up in am and retested the trendline from the topSPX gaped up in am and retested the broken trendline from the top, a perfect long for those who traded my call from last night. I did warn that this can test 4007SPX, its getting close to it. Did few long trades in am, not touching this till tomorrow. FED should be a perfect catalysis for the top. If the price will hold 3946-49SPX tomorrow instead of making a new high and crap, then I would be looking for another extension to 4068 with holiday volume by the 28th high. From where I do expect a strong move down into Dec 1st low. Dec 1st low should produce a good long opportunity and ideally it will hit 3744-50SPX. Should see an easy 150 points into Dec 6th if not more. The setup is coming and its tomorrow. I will be on most of the day and will tweet my trades life.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
6
SPX has a perfect gap fill confluence on Dec 1stI really like what I see here: - Longer term broken to the upside downtrend line test from the top 3744-50SPX - As well as the gap to close from CPI numbers 3748.85SPX All comes to Dec 1st. Number to watch for tomorrow is 4010.50SPX on closing level. - If the price gets to 4007SPX I will short with a 10+ points stop Maj support is at 3744SPX on closing level As noted before, I expect a strong selling into the EOM, ideally we mark a high on the 25-28th and sell hard from the 28th high. The month of Nov will have a lower close then Oct month. Ideal downside timing date is Dec 1st for the low and a high (wave 2) on Dec 6th. From there the price will produce some strong selling into 3389 and ideally 3212SPX by the Dec OPEX or few days later. A small recovery into EOY and high in Jan with crash from there. Next year will produce a great long term long opportunity imo. Have a great night
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
SPX nothing has changed for meLonger term its in bear market. Short term mid range, hard to make a good reading for either up or down move. My best guess we will see 4k and go down to 3875 if not 3750. One thing to note/repeat is EOM will be very strong in selling, at least thats how I see it, and the bottom wont come till the 1st of Dec. My pathway is lower into 22-24th, up into the Cyber Monday and very strong down move into Dec 1st low. I dont see any Santa Rally. Too many still hoping for one and I have a feeling its not coming, but will be lower into at least mid of Dec low! Then a rally into mid Jan high and continuing much lower (strongest move with VIX capitulation) into Mar low, After that Im going to trade mostly in upside into May and then Aug high. Level for tomorrow to watch is the same it was for the whole last week - 4010.50SPX Rejecting it one more time will be a perfect short or exit for a move to 3750SPX Ideally we have one more spike to 4007SPX or so and hard rejection. Have a profitable week everyone and dont get trapped after Wed Fed shenanigans (ideally a fake rally and sell from there into 24th low)
SP:SPX
by RealTima
12
SPX Fake Rally?As we continue to monitor the broader index market we see many discrepancies between the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones. All 3 are not displaying the same level of strength, but what they do all have in common is signs of weakness with this last rally. Although I'm open to the idea that the markets have bottomed, I still think its more that we still have 1 more leg down at this moment. I continue to see signs of weakness with this last rally, divergence, over-bought indicators, and topping patterns are all showing right now. That doesn't mean the market has to make new lows, but at the very least I would expect a higher low to develop. I would be extremely cautious over the next few weeks/months until we see the market start showing signs of strength again. I believe the current investor sentiment is persistent optimism, which is not good for the markets. We don't know if we'll see a higher low, or a new low, but I would be prepared for the worst-case scenario, which would be the markets pushing down to the $3200 support level. We have a lot of historical support in that area, including the weekly 400EMA and the bottom of our down-trend channel where I think it's likely we see a bottom. Remember, be patient, level-headed, and don't follow the crowd.
SP:SPXShort
by CryptoSyphn
ES chart, nothing changed from last nightI wont be surprised to see 3900 test and then one more up from the bull flag. If 3900 holds we should see 4100+ move on the last leg up. The amount of puts is insane, unless I/we dont know something, its a retail/perma-bears trying to short every top and you know what happens to those puts when P/C ratio is so up. I also start to see some really out of the money SPY put prints, like down to 300-335, which I havent seen last 2 weeks Today is a turning day as well as tomorrow and the day after, so a lot of choppiness is expected and trading levels will be rewarded imo There could be a start of the real move down only after 22-23rd going into EOM where Nov 30th is a panic cycle day. I will be looking to buy next low and currently short ES from 3960.50 with a 9 points stop. Will exit half at 10+ points gain and will move the rest at BE
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
11
ES above 4001 it explodes, below 3960 goes down to 3900-10I have marked resistance to take and support to break. Did a quick long from 3972.5 long and already out at 3983.50. I will jump on a wagon if it break either side, so far no mans land, need to see the real move here. My thinking is that we get a fakeout in am and sell off into 3900. But I will be looking at the resistance test (if it breaks) and will do a long with a stop. There is a clear bull flag and as well as roofing pattern on the charts, so really need to see a move in a right direction to enter into a trade, waiting at this point There is a turning day tomorrow and the day after. I wont rule out a cycle inversion and a high on the 21-22nd instead of a low. The maj resistance/support levels were provided. Closing above 4010.50SPX will be bullish going into the next cycle of importance. There is a huge option flow to expire on Fri, so a fakeout and dump from there is very possible A close around 385 will be ideal to kill all the premium out there. There is also a big 390 put wall for this Fri exp. Main support for the SPX is at 3750. Daily supports are at 3950-52SPX and then down at 3907-13SPX Have a good night
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
4
Reposting my weekend update for those who didnt see itMy weekend update was banned as noted other place, Im re-posting now: I have cycles top on Tuesday and choppy period into 22nd low The way I see here is that the price is about to finish the wave 2 and 3rd wave will bring the price down into third week of Dec. Dont see and Santa Rally this year, it should be a Santa Crappy. Nov month should be lowest monthly close when Dec will be higher and Jan 2023 will be another lower monthly close. Intra day low might not come till Apr or even May. I have volatility rising from tomorrow all the way into EOM . I do expect a good down move tomorrow, which will be bought. Main support now is at 3910-15SPX and smaller degree support at 3950-58SPX Resistance and target on the upside are on the chart with notes. Maj resistance on closing daily level is at 4010.50 SPX and weekly at 4116-18. Ideal target for the high this month is 4118SPX level, might very well top in mid 4000 The way the price is going is not bullish but a bear rally, those can extend and be super fast (we got second part already) Main support is at 3750-55SPX now, below it top is in. My game plan for tomorrow is buy low 39 handle for a move up into Tuesday high. I have exited my MES short from Friday close at Sunday open and flipped to long from 83.50 and 84.50. Already took profits at 91.50 and 93.50 zone. Im long some MNQ and my main position is swing short MNQ. I will trim most of my long on Tuesday high.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
16
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% SPX, 40% Cash. * October CPI rose 0.4%, the same increase as in September ; but what moved markets was that Core CPI rose 0.3% compared to 0.6% in September. Such an impulsive rally after one dovish CPI print is hardly sustainable in a bear market; however, if the UofM Sentiment Survey tomorrow is bullish and Russia renews their grain deal with Ukraine on 11/19, this rally may be able to continue into the PCE report on 12/01. Equities finished up in today's session and Equity Futures, Oil, Agriculture, DXY, Long-Term US Treasuries, HSI, NI225 and CNYUSD are up. Cryptos are correcting after many experienced a ~20% rally in today's session. VIX, Natural Gas, Gold, JPYUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD are down. Russia ordered their citizens to evacuate Kherson City in anticipation of a Ukrainian shelling that would level the whole city, this of course is probably another False Flag operation because Ukraine likely has no interest in destroying their own infrastructure. Ukrainian military officials cast their doubts over such a retreat and think it's a ploy to lure Ukrainian soldiers into a central location to maximize inflicted damage. Key Upcoming Dates: UofM November US Consumer Sentiment Survey at 10am EST 11/11; Fourth GDPNow Q4 GDP estimate 11/16; Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal Expiration on 11/19; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14 . * Price finished today's session trending up at $3956, it's still technically testing $3913 minor resistance and will need to close above it in tomorrow's session to help confirm bullishness; considering that Price appears to be legitimately breaking above the 50MA for the first time since 07/19, it may test it as support before continuing higher. Volume finished the session High (moderate) and obviously after a bullish CPI when inflation is the number one market focus, it favored buyers; Price is trading in the second largest supply/demand zone on the chart. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3700, this is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 60 with no signs of peak formation as it approaches a retest of $4058 minor resistance. Stochastic resisted a bearish crossover in Wednesday's session and is currently trending up at 60, it's still technically testing 48 minor resistance. MACD remains bullish after also resisting a bearish crossover in Wednesday's session and is currently trending up at 21 as it attempts to confirm a break above 11 minor resistance. ADX is currently beginning to form a trough at 17 as Price has been pushing higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to flip $3913 minor resistance to support then the next likely target is a retest of $4058 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down below $3913 minor resistance , it will likely retest ~$3855 as support before potentially falling lower to test the 50MA as support at ~$3800 . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3913.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX bounced off resistance, all eyes on 3907SPXSPX must close above 3907 today to confirm the breakout! Bounced off resistance on this move, super extended and overbought now. Resistance is at 3933SPX, broken trend channel test from the bottom I have trimmed my longs (from yesterday's 3755-60ES entry) before the CPI, oh well, cant win them all. SPX is still in its opening channel Tomorrow is a directional change day, will confirm the breakout if the price stays up above 3907 and can get above 3933SPX Volatility is rising into Nov 23rd, I still expect lower into that day, only after a good rally up into EOM For now day trading for me with a core short position
SP:SPX
by RealTima
21
SPX can possibly limit down tomorrowWant to make a special disclaimer here: Do not bet your house on this if you're trading futures (ETF option market is closed) as I might be completely wrong! I want to present you a possibility of another mini crash tomorrow (Oct 13th like) maybe even limit down! If CPI comes hot tomorrow am that could produce another huge sell off like we saw on Oct 13th. CPI poll, make your bets here, share with others: strawpoll.com There are several big issues out there which can contribute to a potential move down: - Treasury reduction, - Crypto crash (leading imo), - Hot CPI, - 10 year action, - Midterms uncertainty (10000% rigged again) - Liquidity is a bigger problem then ever this year (there wont be a bid till it's limit down imo) - Lunar eclipse - Also SAR produced 3 days dots above the price, means the trend is lower and we have a perfect 1-2 setup to the downside Now lets talk about the price and levels: All we need is an open below 3689-3700 and continue sell from the open Supports are at: - 3689 SPX - 3610-45 SPX (support box) where 3610SPX is the maj support, loosing it we get down to: - 3543-52 SPX - 3509 is where the limit down target is - Below 3500 it will not stop till 3415SPX!!! So if this happens you are ready and prepared to trade it. Opening below 3689-3700 will act as a maj resistance for tomorrow and all stops must be there. I will add to my short either before the CPI or right after. Trail short from the open and seat back and relax, as if it goes, there wont be any good bounce due to lack of liquidity. Ideally we see a ramp up into the numbers, but with the election results it could be muted and we wont get a desired rally. Ideal resistance for tonight is at 3780-85ES, I will be closing my longs from 3756 there and flip short with a wide stop. So again, this is a potential I see for tomorrow, if Im wrong and CPI comes lower then expected we could see a decent rally up to 3900 if not 4k (not in one day of course)
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
22