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Spxanalysis

SPX can be at the begging of a very stip downtrend channelSmall disclaimer: - Im not calling for a crash, but expressing a high chance (in my personal opinion based on my own homework) scenario to play out within a month time frame! - When we are out of the crash window, I will reduce this possibility to bare minimum! For this scenario to play-out (not a trading advice, just a possibility), we need a daily close below 3450-55SPX, then its in a clear fall. - Invalidation point is a move above 3840-50SPX on closing basis. Then the whole pathway is a trash Perfect first cycle low early Nov, if not last day(s) of Oct and main cycle low for this year is on week 21st of Nov (+2 or -1 day). Supports are on the chart, again if it starts falling (which I think we will) soon. First big low should come on the 24th of Oct imo. Moon cycle crash window is from 20-24th. If it misses, then no crash and maybe we just bottom at 34 handle or 32 handle (my ideal target all year) max. Please keep in mind, that this is not my main pathway till 3450-55SPX is broken on daily level, must close below it, better for 2 days straight. I will be updating support levels on the go (if this plays out), but main support levels (lines) are on the chart. Will be updating more in this thread tomorrow with smaller timeframe charts
SP:SPX
by RealTima
7
SPX EOW Close ChartWell its a very bad close imo. Bullz have only one chance to hold todays close in B wave down and rally up to 3800 even! But if it instead (higher odds imo) we crash from the open, then my pathway will be - Down to 3400 - Bounce to 3500 - Down to my 3212 (better hold it) If 32 handle wont hold, we will see 2855SPX by 24th! Be ready! Im sure majority is not ready for this type of scenario! Also I think we bottom EOM or early Nov, how low only the GOD knows! Im short lots of SPY puts but will do ES and NQ short on Sunday after I see the opening reaction of the futures. Have a great weekend
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
45
SPX 2 pathways, all the same resultMorning everyone, I sleep in today and missed am short, sold my puts from yesterday at 3620ES zone though, re entering those now again. The price hit my 3720-30 (as per my yesterday's update) zone in am, was an amazing short and I missed it! I see 2 possible pathways: - first is the price is working on the right shoulder and will push much lower next week. My ideal pathway - second is the touch of the upper channel of the trend channel ABC black line. If second, we should touch 3600 and hold, then push for the final move to hit 3815-20SPX Its Friday, do not over trade, let the trade come to you and then press! Im swing short into EOM!
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
31
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% BTC, 48% Cash. * SHORT SQUEEZE WATCH . US September CPI came in 0.4% higher than in August compared to a 0.1% increase from July to August , and CPI without Food + Energy came in 0.6% higher, signifying that the decrease in fuel prices wasn't enough to slow inflation. This leaves the Federal Reserve in a comfortable position to raise another 75bps or more on November 2nd. Markets initially dumped on this news but have since rallied with Equities, Equity Futures, Cryptos, Energy, Agriculture, US Treasuries, EURUSD, GBPUSD and CNYUSD all now up on the day; DXY, VIX, JPYUSD and Gold are down. Very 2022, and very "short squeeze" vibes. Key Upcoming Dates: September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; 18th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15; US September Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 10/19.* Price is currently trending up at $3685 and is testing $3658 minor resistance after bouncing off of $3517 minor support. Volume remains Moderate (high) and is currently on track to end a 5 day streak of seller dominance if it can close today in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3785, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 44 as it retests the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~42 after bouncing just above the uptrend line from August 2015 at 35. Stochastic crossed over bullish today and is currently trending up at 58 as it bounces off of 48 support. MACD reverted to a bullish crossover today and is currently trending up at -83 as it approaches a retest of the uptrend line from March 2020 at -76 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 31 as Price shot up today, because this is an extremely volatile surge this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to reestablish support at $3658 minor resistance then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance . However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely retest the weak descending trendline from July 2021 at ~$3600 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3600.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX is at Very Very Very Dangerous zone!Hi everyone, Im on vacation from Sunday to next Sunday, but I will be trading and will be still posting updates. I dont want to call for a crash here, chances for it are super slim. Any trade must be protected with a stop and only you as a trader can make the decisions on what to do with the information you're getting. Must do is your own homework! Again do not mortgage your house and go all in as this can be a very well one big bear trap! Im looking for that final move to be over by end of Oct or early Nov regardless. (updated about this last week Thursday or so) My target zone is 34 handle by the time window outlined above with ideal target being 32 handle. Below it, the markets are in real troubles! Can it be a crash, I don't know, I'm too far out to predict such things. Here is my quick but important update: - I wont rule out another low on Monday am and in fact I will be shorting on Sunday if we get a bounce. - That low can be lower 52 week low or just 3610SPX test Levels of importance - 3640.50 (again) - 3610, below this level comes - 3550-40 - 3511 - 3480-85 all SPX Resistance is at 3735-45; 3775-85 Here is my 1h chart On this chart I have outlined support levels, when/if broken you know whats coming next! IF we get a strong rally into Wed, I will not be holding longs at all, line none! I will only do options (puts) on what Im ready to loose. So here is a clue to how low this can fall in a very short time: - check the fibs from the low of 2009 to the high this Jan, check where is 78.6% retracement is
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
32
SPX pivot points!Check out how the daily Pivots aligning!!! I expect S2 to hit if it break this week! - 3228SPX, my target was 3212, close enough Ideally we hit S3 on this one! - is at low 2800!!! Perfect storm is getting ready! If we rally tomorrow, I will short EOD close and add on Wednesday Dont tell me that i didnt warn about this possibility of much much lower levels to be seen in end of Oct to Nov 21st week timeframe! Timing is everything is this game, Do Not Get Trapped!
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
30
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% SPX, 60% Cash. * BOUNCE WATCH . The Employment Situation was released this morning and 263k nonfarm workers were added to the economy in September while Unemployment edged back down to 3.5% from 3.7% in August. The 17th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in at 2.9% today compared to 2.7% on 10/05 . Cleveland Fed President Mester tried to warn us of rising Unemployment yesterday and it came down today instead, maybe the Federal Reserve is hiring thousands of nonfarm workers to get together and figure out how to bring down inflation. NY Fed President Williams said today that he envisions another aggressive rate hike in November (likely 75bps) and that he too sees a slowdown in job markets in 2023 accompanied by higher interest rates and lower inflation . In response to the oil production cut by OPEC+, The White House Admin tapped into the SPR yet again, bringing its total emergency oil reserves down to the lowest they've been in forty years . With midterm elections coming up in the USA, it's hard not to see this move by the White House as politically motivated. Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; 18th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.* Price is currently testing $3658 minor support + the weak descending trendline from July 2021 at ~$3633 as support after being rejected by the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800. Volume remains High (low) and has favored sellers in the past two sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3605, this margin is bearish at the moment. RSI is currently testing 38 support after breaking below the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~41. Stochastic crossed over bearish today and is trending down at 78 as it approaches 76.29 support with no signs of trough formation. MACD is currently trending down at -81 after being rejected by -76.22 minor resistance and is on the verge of crossing over bearish if it gets below -86; it's still technically testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~-80 as support. ADX is currently completing a trough and beginning to trend up slightly at 28 as Price is rejected by the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800. If Price is able to bounce here at the weak descending trendline from July 2021 (~$3633) then it will have to close above $3658 minor support in order to be able to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely test $3517 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3658.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
4
SPX supports to holdThe price is finally giving up, recent history is showing that the rallies are lasting 2 days, will it repeat today and we close red, we will see. Numbers of importance for today: Support: - 3749 (on closing level) - 3712.40 - 3680-88SPX (Again this number as an important) support, now becomes an ideal target) - 3640.50 is a final must hold on any close today and tomorrow Resistance: - 3830 - 3860 - 3875 Tomorrow must be very careful with longs! this can really fall tomorrow if no turn today.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX must take 3675 for higher levels to be seenI really want to see 3675SPX tested and then a move above it after a retracement. The down trend channel is important here, so all eyes on 3675SPX! Im out from my Fri longs at 3645, will re-enter Also closed my SPY 346 calls at BE, very happy with not loosing there:) Please note, all the purple lines are the unfilled gaps! P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
11
15min SPX is about to give buy signal, but will fail imoVery weak day today. I want 3636 test and fail from there to close at the lows. Very important level to watch on closing level as mentioned before. So many are trapped since yesterday and the gap might not close till Wednesday next week at min imo Also no one would expect another 100 points trim tomorrow, everyone is looking how "oversold" it is and pray for a bounce. All we get is muted reaction and more selling. Tomorrow should mark temp bottom imo
SP:SPX
by RealTima
7
SPX is looking lower as wellI wanted one more high today to short and the price is just so weak, its unreal! This was my NQ update from last night No more longs for me till the quarter end tomorrow! All eyes on 3636 and 3600SPX on closing level! Closing below 3636 will bring mid 3500 (3555-45) next, then 3500. Closing below 3600 could cut another 100 points plus tomorrow! So far it bounced off my support (grey line below the price), that support is less important then 3636! So be very careful here! Also I wont aggressively short it, as the window for the low is tomorrow/Sunday (for futs) I will be taking off all my swing MNQ short tomorrow and wont hold over the weekend. Next week should get us a relive bounce into 6-7th high, then this can continue! Closing the month below 3600 will bring 3200 on the table for the next month or Nov too be seen This is not the time when you go all in with longs, have stops or wait for the extreme levels to come to enter (much safer bet)
SP:SPX
by RealTima
3
SPX quick update15min is diverging down, watch for 3731-32 print (I have few to short there), we came close enough though. That resistance line above it what must hold on any test, it will be quite bearish if it does today/tomorrow. Needs a gap up to confirm the low is in. I have trimmed my longs and entered with SPY Oct exp 351P, also have order to short at numbers mentioned above. For tomorrow Im looking for a higher low and move above that resistance to test the trendlines above at 3750 3750-60SPX is the next resistance after 3725-35SPX Im not shorting here till I see my 3731
SP:SPX
by RealTima
32