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Spxanalysis

SPX weekly closing day - Fri updateHi everyone! Im still battling with timing on the high and potential crash this/next month. We either bottom this month, we have interest rate decision on the 21st and then up into Oct 3rd week where the turn suppose to happen and last into EOM or even Nov. My timing showing a low in Oct/Nov. There is a chance for us to see 4425! but the lows we just had must hold, then that high will be early Oct. But there are several supper strong resistances to overtake: - 4085 - 4125-35 - 4308 - 4385SPX My fib calculation as well as previous calculations support this possible pathway, then the Oct/Nov low will be in 3240SPX zone!!! - There is also a 61.8 retracement at 3195SPX off 2020 Mar lows! - This move up will be a perfect C wave up of the bigger B wave in case we made A high in Aug (I have this pathway outlined in green count) My main count is still to hold 4125-35 and ideally stretch to 4200SPX before serious selling into EOM. - I have Panic month on Oct in SPX and Sep for the DOW. Interesting thing is SPX had a panic month on Sep as well, but cycles have moved it to Oct now. But I want to be open for a potential screw up of the bears and making the bulls believe we are on the pathway to ATHs (again). That alone will screw up so many! Ideally we make a higher monthly close in Sep and intraday high early Oct, then the cycles will match with the turn in Oct where we can have a huge sell into MidTerms. - Then we should rally into EOY to do a damage control and top out in Jan. Im still battling about Santa Rally as this year is completely different from others. - Also energy and food crisis in Europe might put a lot of pressure into the markets, unless there is a bigger war erupted and the European money will flow into the US. Which I do expect to happen next year or 2024... So lets talk about tomorrow, so I can go to sleep: Today's close was into the wall with last 10 min pump, that usually ends up in following day being red, at least first part of it. Also closed below intraday highs = not bullish. - Needs a gap up above 4020 (and ideally 4030) or we should see lower levels tomorrow. Im short into tomorrow from the close and some from AHs highs, half position. Last few weeks we dump big on Friday's, will it repeat tomorrow? My bet is yes. Tomorrow is a turning day! Ideally we see a higher low tomorrow and reverse hard into last hour or 2 of the day and never look back, that would setup a move for much higher next week Its VIX OPEX on Wed, triple witching week 200MA here on 4h chart is the ideal target for this move! - Or 4125-35 and ideal at 4200+ for the top of this move this month Tomorrow resistance is at: - first resistance 4020SPX - Main resistance to take 40350SPX - 4085SPX is the closing resistance for higher levels early next week The only real support I have now is low 3800 cluster, if we test 3885-3900 again it will slice it imo. So lets see if they can push it up and save the day before and at least the OPEX and the interest rate decision on the 21st. Have a good night! P.S. Dont forget to like my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX Sunday email updateHere is my SPX update I sent out to those who are on my email list: Ideally we see lower open on Sunday and maybe Monday and then push higher into the cash open on Tuesday (we already got the first part), that would be bullish. Also, I wont rule out a move down to 3840-50ES on Monday and 12k NQ and reverse to open green on Tuesday, that would be very bullish imo. - NQ must hold 12055 and the ES 3915 and 3905 on any test (ideally it wont test it at all!) - Going below Fri, Thu lows will be very bearish and the bullish count will be buried. There is still a huge potential of a crash from the oversold conditions. But I hope the big boys will lift it up again into OPEX time and distribute and sell more before the big rug pull I'm expecting in Sep/Oct time. We have met my first target on the upside to the penny, straight into the circle I put early on the chart early July. - This is the chart (link below) from Jul 17th (just click the play button on the chart from your desktop or laptop). As you noticed I have not changed my main pathway even once! In fact I haven't changed my main market view since end of Nov of the 2021 (was one month early on the SPX when NDX did hit the high that month)! I still believe we are not going to 5500 like some others do for the whole year and hope I saved many accounts from being blown up on the long side. At least for those who listened to me in Dec/Jan. I will be wrong at some point on the bigger picture and will reevaluate when I see signs of the changes, otherwise its playing out well this year so far - The market do test both sides and it seems the high came earlier by less then 2 weeks. - My main goal is to figure the low area and the timing for the upcoming lows this fall, as I don't want to get trapped on the short side and wait for "one more low" before the Santa Rally (if we even going to have one this year). But Im expecting the next high to come in Jan and turn down to Apr final low of this first big Bear leg down (I call it the big A) On SPX simple chart, you can see that we are in the thinnest part of the cloud and usually its an easy breakdown/break up zone. We really have to hold that 3895-3910SPX zone for the markets to push higher from here. The main resistance for Tuesday is at 4025-30SPX! If we gap up above it, then the next resistance is at 4060 and 4080. 4015 will become the main support! I'm not sure if its doable to have a 100 points gap up on Monday, but it has to gap up above 3960SPX! - If the open will be flat its not bullish and it can sell again to make new lows into 3850 zone. I'm very skeptical of this price action, its very weird imo and there is something behind it, which can shake the markets hard, both directions, but mainly to the downside. All the surprises are to the downside now. My main target for this move up (if we have bottomed) is 4125-35SPX, that would be a very strong resistance to take. Above it, it can stretch back to 4250 and even 4285SPX. So again, SPX MUST take 4025 level and then hold 4015! Only then I will be looking for those higher levels I mentioned above. Enjoy rest of your long weekend!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 25% SPX, 75% Cash. *Equities, Equity Futures and Gold are all slightly down to start the week while Cryptos, VIX, Energy and US Treasuries are up and DXY has stayed relatively flat. The Risk-Off reaction to Jerome Powell's hawkish comments in Jackson Hole last Friday is continuing into the start of this week. Financial markets will likely stay choppy leading up to the Jobs Report on on September 2nd and CPI on September 13th; both of these data points will provide guidance regarding whether the Fed will increase FFR by 50bps or 75bps on September 21st. Meanwhile Europe is facing what is likely to be a cold winter marked by energy rations and high prices, this is something to keep an eye on as it has the potential to exacerbate global recession fears. Key Upcoming Dates: August Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 08/30 ; 9th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate at 10am EST 09/01; August Employment Situation 830am EST 09/02.* Price is currently trending down at ~$4050 after breaking below the uptrend line from 06/16/22 at ~$4145, it's fast approaching a retest of the 50 MA at ~$4k as support. Volume remains Moderate (high) and is on track to favor buyers in today's session, after favoring sellers in last Friday's, if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4254 minor resistance, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI continues to trend down at 43 as it approaches a retest of the uptrend line from 01/27/22 at 38 support. Stochastic is currently neutral and trending sideways at 10, the next resistance is at 18 and the next support at max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at 23 with no signs of trough formation as it still technically is testing 33 support. ADX is currently beginning to form a trough at 23 as Price continues to fall, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely see a bit of resistance at $4100 before it aims to retest $4175 resistance . However, if Price continues to fall here, it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$4k psychological support and potentially lower to retest $3938 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $4100.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX end of the week updateI had no time to post this last night, but I did the ES. We did hit my upper target at 4210-20, reversed and never looked back! Was looking for this move for several days now, but it came so big, I didnt expect to have so much of a move in 1 day. This gives me more confidence on my lower target zone to hit 3930-50SPX So for today's close 2 very important numbers are: - 4157 -4125 Closing below second number will make me even more confident of seeing that lower target next week. Main supports are: - 4078 (expect a good bounce from this number, ideally to test 5150 level) - 4050 Main daily resistance is at 4177 now have a great weekend
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
23
SPX flagging, there is a good setup for a good size gap down SPX flagging, there is a good setup for a good size gap down tomorrow. Again has to gap down below 4255-57SPX to mark the top being in place (reference to March topping pattern) If we gap down to 4189-4207SPX (the bottom of the channel) and hold it early from the open, then I will go long for a move up into the close. If this is what will play out, then we should re-test 4308.50-23 on Monday with a gap up and crap. So must watch number for tomorrow is 4189-4207. Must gap down below 4255 to have this setup more probable! Some good setups are coming, just need to be patient. Maj resistance is at 4308.5SPX on closing level.
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
26
SPX needs a Gap Down below 4255-57 tomorrow...Quick update. The price needs to gap down tomorrow below 4255-57 to confirm the top being in place. Usually this type of the move trap bulls for long, so as long as we gap down hard tomorrow, I can mark the top being in. There is still a room to squeeze to 4330-34, but Im not really playing it unless I see a good setup. If we gap up tomorrow, will have to revisit my charts. Tomorrow should continue today's day, we had a reversal to downside and if this is real we should see a low on the 22nd-23rd, small bounce 23-24th and last low or higher low on the 25-26th 24th is a panic cycle day! Mark it on your calendar Numbers to watch tomorrow: - Maj resistance is the same - 4308.50 (on closing level) - First main support is at 4255-57 - 4220 and next is at 4175 - Ideal target of this move is at 4125-46 Ideally we should see something similar of a move from EOM Mar high. You can revisit a gap down below 4520, which was retested and never seen since after. Tomorrow's move should be a start of the first move down, fits with cycle lows into 22-23rd or 25-26th, then a rally into Labour Day high/lower high. The week of Sep 5th is a panic cycle week, so a gap down from there is expected to trap all the bulls, especially after staying long over the long weekend. Have a good night
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
2
SPX Aug 17th updateExpected a high being hit today, we got it. Expected a close below 4308.5SPX, we got it. Expected a red close, got it only on NASDAQ and Small Caps. As long as we stay below 4340SPX we should see lower is my next expectation. VIX (see my update earlier) has a clear ISH pattern. Main support is 4177SPX Tomorrow must watch numbers are - 4285 and especially 75, failure of holding the last number can be a good sign of the local top, need much lower to mark the maj top! - Resistance is the same 4308.50 on the closing level. - Upper target zone is around 4330-34SPX in case it wants to tag it, Im not playing it and will be looking for a short setup instead. I expect this to dive down to 4150+- SPX zone by the 24th-26th and one more push to lower low /double top, or if broken above - 4425+ sometime early Sep. Not favouring the second scenario, but can be a case for the larger B wave top in Jan. Im not in the camp of new ATH's and the lows being in, I dont change my count to fit the price or put many counts to be right regardless. If Im wrong at some point (everyone makes mistakes), I will admit and only then change my view. We are not even close to have that view changed at this point. Also want to bring the attention to Sep and hope many will make a note of this warning - there is a chance we could crash that month and my charts do reflect that. Will it be serious or not as much, I have no idea, but I see some serious signs of something happening that month. You have been warned. Have a good night
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
17
SPX hit 4308.50 target!Ideal target has been met! Watch to close below 4308.50, ideally we close red, tomorrow will be a bigger sell off with the bounce on the 18th. The target zone is at 4300-33, it can stretch into 20s, I will short it there, or short if we close below 4308.50 Timing should be right as per my last night update. I will post a zoomed out chart after the close with the expected pathway into Oct low. One thing to mention is I wont be holding any longs after end of this month! Sep can produce a good crash, you've been warned!
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
2
SPX is in the target and maj resistance zoneNothing much to add since my most recent updates. The price is in the target zone I had for a while now. Was expecting a good size pullback, never happened. Im still in some trapped ES short, as well as RTY from Fri close and some SPY puts. We got right into the Yellow dotted line I had for months now, its the main resistance line and right in our 4308SPX target zone. Maj daily resistance is at 4308-35SPX Maj support (and I expect it to hold) is at 4000-08SPX Might stretch into 4930-50, but low 4k has higher chance in holding on the upcoming pullback. As noted on the RTY chart, there is a chance we wont tag 200MA, too many are looking for one to get hit. We should get some sort of pullback next week, how deep it will be, I dont know, but it can be quite fast. Maj turn dates are the 16th and week of 29th, Im assuming that week will mark the high, might be lower high. We have 9 unfilled gaps since Jun low, I expect those to get filled by Oct low. Im expecting a double bottom or a marginal lower hit in to below 3450SPX zone before a good size rally into EOY. Sep comes up as a panic month, I expect a good size reversal that month and it can get quite ugly in Oct. I see some serious market movers Sep/Oct time, might stretch into Nov Midterm elections. Those in power will do everything to rig it, so expect more international instability as well as something serious in the states. Interesting and very dangerous times we live in. Very important to gap down tomorrow to mark temp high. Expect a counter trend next 2 weeks into week of 29th. 2 scenarios Im watching: - top in main target zone of 4308-35SPX - top at 4425SPX in case it wants to extend into mid of Sep
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
6
SPX quick updateNothing much I can add, but few things: Lots of evidence of the market hitting the ceiling - SPX is at 61.8 fib retracement, very important to watch - Added a trendline off Feb 2020 and Sep 2020 highs, we are right at the resistance zone. - Main target (4308-30) is getting close to hit with no 4th wave pullback but relentless grind in a C wave up. - Weekly bullish reversal is only at 4385SPX on closing level, we are not going to hit it today. - Daily is at 4308, same as the main target, also a gap to fill. - MACD, RSI, Stoch etc are all in overbought territory, can last for several days more to hit that 4308+ target - We have 9 gaps on the downside left, I expect those to get fill in Sep/Oct - VIX is giving another long signal and sell to equities, need to watch the close below the Bollinger band to confirm Im only day trading and have few ES under the water I m holding. Will be short over the weekend with NQ, especially if we reverse into the close and close below the highs. My internet is still very bad and technicians are only coming tomorrow end of the day, cant trade much in this environment but using my cell data for small trades
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
4
SPX is at 100% extension still see the whole move as bear rally- VIX gave a long signal and short signal for the markets, same as we had on the 29th of July. Tomorrow we have a directional change as well as Fri with clear low on the 16th. I would like to see a good move lower starting tomorrow or Fri and a gap down on Monday. Volatility spike on Monday supports my view on this possible outcome. And then reversal day on Tuesday with lower low in am and higher close then Monday to mark a temp bottom. Im swing short both ES (under the water) and NQ AH's. I did trade NQ and ES on the long side last night and woke up to some very nice gains, happy with seeing a good long setup last night. So my paper loss on the ES short was very well offset today, not counting every day day trading. Im fine holding those shorts with no stop for now. Can we extend, 100% we can if it wants too and my ideal target still seats at 4308-30SPX. Please note that we are supper close to my min target I had for second month now - 4225SPX (very close and I wont be upset that we wont hit it:). I didn't expect that we get there on a straight line with such low pullbacks, but we did. And I'm trapped with some swing ES short for second week now (which is fine with me as I day trade through the day with NQ and make all that paper loss back with both long and short trades, like I did from last night entry) My downside targets are the same - 4012-28 and ideal 3992 and 3950SPX. All we need is to break 4125SPX Important levels (on closing level) for tomorrow and rest of the week to watch are: Support, Daily: - Maj is at 4135 and then 4079 on closing level - Air below 4079 all the way to 3860-70SPX and 3810-20SPX Weekly: - There is only one support on weekly level and its at 3636SPX Resistance Daily - Maj is at 4308SPX - Air above 4308 all the way till 4460SPX! Weekly Resistance is at 4385SPX I will update NQ chart tomorrow, it was updated to those who are on my email list though. Enjoy/Share/Like
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
2
SPX weekend update Im slightly short as of Fri close, not planning to hold for long, looking at other day to get in with swings. Notes from the chart: 4308.5SPX is the main resistances now (must hold for continuation lower) Resistance - 4158.50, 4160.2, 4177.60, 4168.80 (Maj) SPX - Low target for tomorrow 4052, 4027 and Main support 4012SPX - Buy if seen in am, don't buy if we see higher first - 3910 and 3943 are the maj support zone now Buy zone for tomorrow with stops! - 4012, 4027.50SPX - 4000 must hold on any try or it falls apart and will get 50MA tested Short - 4154-60SPX, no short above 4175, going to 4216-25 - Low (intraday) was on Jun 17th; - No current long position, only short Old pathway still can be in play: - rally for a week or 2 back to 4150-4205 SPX (we are here now), retest of 3890SPX or 3830by Mid Aug and then main target of 4330+ and possible 4425+ summer time - Ideally extend to 4425SPX (4300 main resistance on the way up) summer rally target - 110MA After revising my chart, there is a high chance we are in a 5 wave down pathway with 4 being almost over. Larger ABC pathway down into Sep/Oct low as being just an A wave, B wave up to Jan high and C down to Apr low Potential 5 waves down is forming! Next mid Jun low can be lower low! Came as a main low and possible 5 wave down is over and we are in a B wave up Additional to add: We did hit 110MA on Fri high and retraced, that target alone can be enough for this move and the price doesn't have to test 200MA in case of a serious bear trend. There are 2 downtrend channels, either of them can be in play, those are visual on my chart. - We have a high volatility going into the 4th Aug - As well as from the 8th of Aug to 15th. I'm expecting at least a temp high on the 1st or the 3rd, if was not hit on Fri . Low mid month and another advance into the week of 29th on neg div . After that expect a huge move down and my targets as of now are 3430 and 3455. There is a Fib fan confluence at the same levels I really don't want to see lower, as if that happens,then we could be in a 5 waves structure into Q1 of 2023 instead of ABC move down.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
5
SPX updated bear channelI did send this chart during the last trading hour yesterday to those who are on my email list. I have revised the bear channel and it fits much better with the current price action as well as the fibs. Im short here and looking to add if we see a double tap of a bit higher high, otherwise doing only day trading. Its a weekly and monthly closing day today, so must watch numbers are: - 4090.80PX on closing level for weekly continuation or rejection of the price. - 3950.50SPX on closing level for monthly continuation or rejection. If closing below the second number it will be a huge tell of much lower levels to come. Closing above 4090 can bring the 4300 into play earlier then I thought and that would make me change the ABC pathway with Jun 14th being as a B wave. Main supports are: - 4060SPX - 4002-10SPX - 3939SPX - 3890SPX Im mostly off today, will do a weekend update only.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX Long, expecting closed all week highSPX closed at $3998.95 (Almost $4000) today. Expecting a higher close point between $4010-4038. Watch for turning point -- but mostly followed with a pull back to retest 30F(Green) pivot ZG (higher support line around $3970), and move uptrend. Red -- drop back into the consolidation area for more wave. -- News -- in next 10-days Xi & Biden will have a meeting (video meeting?) We'll see whether supply chain issue will smooth a little -- If works, SPX go towards $4300s.
SP:SPXLong
by BeshellO
1