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Spxbtc

Will BTC Rise if SPX Corrects? Short Answer: - For significant SPX drops: BTC will likely follow - For smaller SPX corrections: BTC might not Long Answer: There are currently two types of BTC holders – the believers and the speculators: - Believers (50%+ of market*): believe in BTC’s long-term potentials and most are not affected by market actions. - Speculators (50%- of market*): Affected by market actions, and drive price actions * more than 50% of the BTCs haven’t been moved for more than 1 year; more than 30% of BTCs haven’t been moved for more than 2 years. SPX drops significantly -> Generate fear in market -> Speculators doubt BTC will go to 0 -> panic selling -> BTC drops significantly However, for SPX corrections, most are not significant enough to incur fear in the market. And the impact likely wouldn’t flow to BTC speculators. Should one watch SPX closely to make BTC directional judgements? Our answer is no, because we don’t think BTC price actions would be highly correlated with small SPX corrections. We could still see a repeat of May 2019, when the SPX correction led to a large group of BTC shorts, who eventually got squeezed, ending in an 80%+ increase in BTC price. The question now: Will there be a COVID19 2nd wave SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH for SPX to drop 15%+? Do you think BTC is correlated with SPX movements? Are you bullish or bearish? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Phi-Deltalytics
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