$ES top in?We got a large reversal today which makes me think that top is in for this cycle. As you can see from the chart, price went over resistance and closed back below it which is extremely bearish.
From here, I think we'll see a move down to the first support at $4800, then I think it's likely that we bounce higher to make people think we're going to see another move higher, but instead of having a sustained trend, we'll roll over down to new lows.
My base case is that we'll see the lowest supports at $2750-2900 before we see any sustainable bull market trend form.
Let's see how it plays out.
Spxfutures
Where will we go?Are we in a trap region? The month is ending, but the problems are just beginning!
Based on the latest analysis, we may indeed be in a trap region. And its long-term objective was achieved in full (1,618 FIB).
And gold has not yet lost its 2K level. What a thing, right? If everything is fine, why isn't our "rich" fiat's store of value giving way?
I just think that we should keep our eyes open, because things are going too easy, and my motto for a safe victory is: "There is no such thing as a free lunch, if you ate it, someone will have to pay the bill."
Do your analysis and good business.
Be aware, if you buy, use stop loss.
See other graphical analyzes below.
5050 - Objective achievedConsidering the projection outlined for the future SPX in a previous analysis, I realize that the target pointed out by SETUP on the long-term chart has been reached.
Therefore, I think we have nowhere else to go up without at least having a small correction towards the 4685 region if I only consider the graphical analysis. See the image below.
Despite "reaching" the target, SETUP still shows that the index has a small strength to surpass this mark and reach the 5058 region, which can be seen as a buying trap for the most unsuspecting trader.
Coming to the short-term chart, the SETUP used indicates that we are in an extremely overbought region, therefore, it shows that the index is losing strength and that it really needs to make a correction. See below.
Do your analysis and it's good business.
Be aware, if you buy, use stop loss!
See other graphical analyzes below.
S&P500 The August 2022 is the Resistance but the index can peak The S&P500 / SPX / US500 is extending the rise inside the long term Channel Up, supported by the 1day MA50.
As long as the 1day MA50 supports, we will stay bullish with the 4330 August 16th 2022 posing as the next Resistance.
Every rally inside the Channel Up however has been at least +9.50% so we expect a peak on the Channel Up top at 4400 if the August 2022 top breaks.
If a candle closes under the 1day MA50, seel and target 4030 (bottom of the Channel Up).
Previous chart:
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
S&P500: Upside limited to the August 2022 High. Buy the pull bacThe S&P500 index is approaching the top of the Megaphone pattern inside the wider Channel Up. The 1D time frame is bullish technically (RSI = 59.471, MACD = 22.900, ADX = 16.182) but only moderately. If the price crosses over the Megaphone, we will buy the breakout and target the top of the Channel Up (TP = 4,295). If not, we will buy the pull back near the 1D MA50, which is supporting since March 30th and target the R2 and August 16th High (TP = 4,330).
If the index though crosses and closes under the 1D MA50, we will sell and target the S1 (TP = 4,045) and further closing under the S1, will target the bottom of the Megaphone and 1D MA200 (TP = 3,985).
Prior idea:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
S&P 500 Futures: Fibonacci Levels and Upcoming TrendsS&P 500 futures are currently experiencing a pause due to Fibonacci extension targets, with a possible further upside move towards the 4100 level. A short-term cool down period and pullback is expected before potentially heading higher into mid-week next week. Keep an eye on the VIX for potential moves.
I noticed an interesting battle around Fibonacci levels at the close on Thursday. There are a couple of pivotal points to consider. The first set of pivots are 3937 > 4033 > 3981, which create Fibonacci extension targets of 4079 and 4102. This likely explains the current pause in the market.
Another layer of important pivots are 3839 > 4073 > 3937, which place a 61.8% Fibonacci extension target at 4084. This further reinforces the reason for the price action pause today.
Based on this analysis, I expect that we're going to see a further upside move tomorrow, as there is still a decent amount of momentum behind this market movement. It seems likely that the 4100 level will be tapped. Numerous indicators are overbought on most timeframes, including higher timeframes such as the 4-hour and daily charts.
The key takeaway is that a portion of the current correction appears to be almost complete, suggesting a cool down period as I mentioned yesterday. I anticipate a pullback to somewhere near 4000-4025 before heading higher into mid-week next week. As I've been discussing April 6th for a while now, this should serve as reinforcement. My projected path is up tomorrow, down on Monday/Tuesday, up on Wednesday/Thursday, and then I will determine what happens next.
I'm also keeping an eye on the VIX. There is a possibility that it is bottoming out around 19 for now, with a potential move up to 25 in the coming weeks. However, it's important not to make hasty trading decisions based on this observation alone.
S&P as we go into the weekend..So after a week of SLOW drifting market sentiment we looked to reference points for resistance and light shorts.
This is in anticipation of market sentiment change which comes (inevitably) after slow markets.
Whether the market shifts UP or DOWN radically you need to be ready for it.
So lets work on it!
Have a great weekend!
SPX Futures.. The way Markets Fall and RiseHey Guys,
I covered this earlier but you must be aware of how markets fall and rise and why and how you must act to be a profitable trader.
1. Do not Race in. If you flick back in time to any fall In Similar markets (or the SPX only) you can see how it trickles down over time. This is because former levels must be broken.
2. Gauge market value. Do not buy Highs and do not sell lows. Just be patience and trade moves.
3. Trade in stages; Linking back to point 1 the markets will fall often in stages giving you the chance to buy and sell over time.
And most importantly CHECK what is going on in the world. It just helps a little to know how far into the woods the global economy is and how long its likely to take to get out!
Important Rules. Be prepared ALWAYS!
Look lower to 3400 and circa 3200 for Future longs. IF we get there. If we do not you shall lose nothing.
Where's the bottom for SPX?Looking the SPX chart I used the 200 SMA (1W), 400 SMA (1W) and the volume profile to see where support zones are.
The 200 SMA has proven a valuable indicator in recent years as a 'bottom metric'
There seems to be confluence to some nice volume at this area as, obviously, a lot of people know this.
The 400 SMA also very interesting as it supported the price during the '20 crash. The volume at this area is massive compared to the volume correlated to the 200 SMA which begs the question,
is the 200SMA going to hold as support this time?
ES ForecastES/SPX is seemingly extremely bullish, having rejected resistance around 4140 and having a subsequent bullish rally off the lows since then. However, RSI divergence continues to limit upside. Broad market indicators, such as market breadth, are lagging. Volatility looks poised for upside. Bonds are looming for a breakout as well.
Watch for the overthrow top
CRASH in One to Two Weeks #StockMarketCRASHIf we are forming a large counter trend move that's going sideways in an EW abc correction. I think we've got a good shot at filling the gap if the last low in mid June holds. I think we will see the start of a crash move starting within one or two weeks. If the gap fills and we get a lower high than the peak made in early June. So the sideways move could continue until earnings season kicks off after the 4th of July or shortly thereafter.
Retest time?Seems like levels are close to the halfway mark in the Fib retracement. We're looking at a 27% rally from the low. Not sure why the rally has lasted this long and been so strong, it could be from a short squeeze...who knows. It has to end soon I would imagine.
We are heading into earnings with bad news ahead of us plus more bad economic news, so I anticipate the move down is coming soon. I just can't believe the market has completely priced everything in yet. Prove me wrong.
S&P FuturesOn the S&P FUTURES is forming a particular candlestick "pattern", a checkmate . A (bullish) checkmate consists in a series of long black (red) candles followed by white (green) candles (or small real bodies) near the same support level, and reveals that the bears’ drive is being “checkmated”. If the current candle will be green, then most likely we are going to see a bounce with the target in the area 2750/2800.
ES Futures - Weekly Outlook Mar 04 - 08If it pulls back, it should fine support at the bottom trend line of the channel. If it falls below that, it should find support at the support zone identified. A run will make it hit 2816.75 and it may struggle there and if it continues to climb up, 2840.50 is in sight as next profit target.
Quick short trade on /ES miniFibonacci tells me it would go at least 38% retracement range of 2685..
I think a short trade placed at 2710 with stop loss at 2715 and profit target of 2685 would yield more than 1:4 risk to reward trade..
Disclaimer: this is no recommendation for any trade. I am using it to track my paper trade prediction performance