SPXL
$RSP performing better than $SPY, like we caleldAMEX:RSP = equal weight SP:SPX
We see that volume has been very good
AMEX:SPY is underperforming it & that is a good sign
NASDAQ:NDX underperforming as well
This means money is moving around & every one gets a chance to play
AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT has legs, call that it would break out was good
It also had great volume a few days ago
IMO #Stocks have what it takes to keep moving
$SPX breaking out atmNot fan of the SP:SPX , prefer the smaller TVC:DJI & tech heavy NASDAQ:NDX
BUT
It is always good 2c more breadth
So much negativity it is EASY to be a bear
BUT
Been saying for some time, outside few shorts here & there, momentum = BULL
Last 2 days volume decent and AMEX:SPY shows it bit better
RSI broke 1st downtrend & about to face more important one, imo likely break it
$SPX looks like it wants to keep goingWith the TVC:VIX breaking the symmetrical triangle, see previous post, to the downside we're seeing high levels of complacency.
Much of this doesn't make sense but we've been saying for the longest times that markets are IRRATIONAL!
With #SPX breaking we could very well see a bigger push and faster. At the moment they are saying it's just a handful of companies leading, while there is truth in that, equal weight indices are beginning to push higher.
$VIX threw in the towel long agoTVC:VIX mini inverse head & shoulder pattern has gone way of dodo bird
Long term trend has been broken for some time
We stated long ago that the direction this would be broken would show how #stocks would react
What does SP:SPX look like it wants to keep doing?
Will post quickly right after this
#SPX #VIX
$VIX back into Triangle Pattern, $SPX toppishTVC:VIX gaining some momentum on the daily but cannot deny the damage that was done to it last month
#VIX is a tad harder to chart but it does look like it wants to bottom here
Opening AMEX:VIXM put selling strategy = bull
Keeping tight stops @ support levels
SPX500 SPY SPX update (STILL IN PLAY)We have fallen below the upward Extra Bullish trend channel i gave you back at the MARCH lows.
It seems rather clean and clear that currently my channel is now acting as Resistance so its still in play so to speak and worth keeping and watching.
When everyone FREAKED out and sold off the crash we really only dropped to EXACTLY the 1st line of support from the October trend.
Which IF you follow me you've had these lines and this chart to use for reference since October and should have been watching for support like i previously stated might come into play soon and you would have been able to grab a nice quick play on just about anything in the sp500 and already sold for scalp profits again.
If we reject fully from this channel that now seems to be R, I'll try buying again on the trend line currently around 4060.
If and when we fall through this support/break support/crash again and everyone loses it. Look for the secondary line I gave you below it to act as a bounce at least is my guess. As that is actually the trend line from the October LOWEST point.
If I'm wrong I'll say so when the time comes but so far these trends have been spot on since last year when i called the downward trend to begin AFTER Turkey day.
Go back and find my charts from there titled something like Turkey or Thanksgiving massacre repeat.
SPXL - Breakout Ceiling of Falling Trend Channel- SPXL has broken the ceiling of the falling trend in the medium long term, which indicates a slower initial falling rate.
- SPXL is moving within a rectangle formation between support at 62.45 and resistance at 83.75.
- A decisive break through one of these levels indicates the new direction for the stock.
- The stock has marginally broken up through resistance at 75.00.
- Overall assessed as technically neutral for the medium long term.
*EP: Enter Price, SL: Support, TP: Take Profit, CL: Cut Loss, TF: Time Frame, RST: Resistance, RTS: Resistance to be Support LT TP: Long Term Target Price
*Chart Pattern:
DT - Double Top | BEARISH | RED
DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | GREEN
HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | RED
REC - Rectangle | BLUE
iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | GREEN
Verify it first and believe later.
Are we about to make a measured move higher?Of course this is a leveraged ETF, but the underlying indexes, SPX, and futures, /es both look the same. The context is as follows:
I looked for previous years where the S&P500 had a large drop, and then formed a flat top wedge over the coming months. I found 3 instances that you can see annotated in the charts.
If you examine these formations you will see that in each instance the Index broke out and made a measured move upwards.
What is a measured move? Measure the thickest part of the wedge to get a % gain. When the underlying security breaks out of the narrowest part of the wedge it will often move the same percentage upwards.
In our current scenario we have made a 50% move this year in SPXL and formed a flat top wedge pattern. If this pattern can be broken to the upside another 50% gain will take us up to a price target of119+/-
There is still a wall of worry out there, and anything could happen, so take this with a grain of salt.
Stay tuned for further updates...........
SPX500 SPY SPX update $420 Gap Fill?Does anyone remember last year when I kept talking about WHEN gap fill 420?
NO well that's ok it can be found in my Trading view history.
That scenario is looking much more likely all the sudden.
For ME personally the BIG question will be how much more Bullish do I feel when and IF we get there.
Is this just a LATE gap fill and or re-test of that area and an upcoming FAIL. Then we get the start of that REAL CRASH?
The charts still have a LOT to say about seeing a lower LOW this year. I myself stated LONG ago that if we began breaking down there was no real support until the 2850-3150 ranges and i really wanted to see us get to a minimum of the 3300 ranges. Now some could argue the 34?? something we hit at some charts lows was maybe a good call considering that began when spx was everyone's next goal of $5k. lol.
This for me myself becomes a time of really needing to assess what goes on in the BIGGER picture and to not get overly BEARISH along the way and miss my time. However lets not also begin buying TOPS again either. lol.
45% Vs 57%Yes, we are in the middle of something, let me explain.
we have a well formed rising wedge that is a bearish pattern, inside of an giant bull flag in theory we should se that pattern ending but that pattern is inside of 3 symmetrical triangles, one confirmes another 2 close to be confirmed, the symmetrical triangle is a reversal confirmation, so we should see a continuation for the uptrend.
Green arrow point to the symmetrical triangles
Blue arrow point to the giant bull flag
Orange point to the wising wedge
If for some reason the rising wedge was the winner the next week, could take us 45% down from here.
But if the symmetrical is the right pattern and we are watching a trend change, we should see to complete the bull flag with more than 50%.
I think that because the giant bull flag is too old, the symmetrical triangles are dominant and we should se the up trend continuation.
$QQQ $SPY Full Bull control but its a little extended.- QQQ and SPY has a very strong bull move last 4 days with zero signs of bears but they move is quite extended and im looking for a daily consolidation to shape up
- If the consolidation is healthy the bull move will likely continue so i will be watching how the consolidation shapes up.
- SPY is approaching some key resistance around 410 area also potentially shaping up a daily H&S we'll have to see how it trades around 410 Next week
- i will be on team bull until bears show me signs of weakness during daily consolidation.
$VIX close to lower level, time for breather soon?Excuse my absolutely HORRIBLE art skills😄
$VIX USUALLY stays close to a "bottom" for few days
Kind of an exception = yellow
We're closing in to lower end of the symmetrical triangle
#VIX tends to bounce there
$SPX has had issues in this area, it does look better than before
Weekly volume on $SPX, see that?
#stocks
$QQQ $SPY BEAR LACK Follow Through, Key Levels to Watch- $SPY $QQQ bear had all its chances to bring QQQ down after a bear break this morning out of the tightening range we had in the last 4 days but bears couldn't follow through.
- Want to see QQQ Bulls gain back its hourly uptrend and break above 308 area of resistance.
- want to see XLF / KRE bounce for SPY & SPX to break out of its equilibrium bull. of course vice versa for the bears.
- zero red flags on the daily time frame for SOXX / SMH / QQQ
XLF Triple Bottom Support for SPY Bulls, QQQ Daily Bull Flag, - XLF holding triple bottom support 15m, holding above yeseterdays low bounce off of it 3 times today, first initial sign for the bulls. Now bulls need the hourly trend change for XLF back to an uptrend to help SPY
- QQQ's drop may seem a lot today due to how fast we pulled back from the morning but we are still way above 0.386 fib retracement on daily therefore QQQ is still in a bull flag zone.
- if XLF starts bouncing and changing trends i am likely going to swing some short term bull positions in the leverage 3x SPXL TQQQ TNA
PPI, XLF No Bear follow through, Rate Hikes, QQQ Lead Bull- PPI data came in better then expected increasing the likelihood of a pause to 50-60%
- XLF gapped down new lows but closed around cash open area, meaning there wasnt a lot of bear follow through after the gap down. The first sign bulls want to see is XLF holding its lows and start to bounce or even just going sideways is good for tech bulls. Bears want to see new lows.
- QQQ lead bull held up the SPY. making 15m higher lows each time while SPY was making new lows in the end afternoon once XLF started bouncing just even a little bit you saw both SPY and NASDAQ had a nice rip higher.
- Looking for SPY to form its daily uptrend then i would be playing on the bull side for swings on TQQQ or SPXL, for now im still scalping day trades and going all cash before end of the day.
- Next FOMC meeting is going to be a lot more key then any other previous ones to see if Powell actually pauses or hike 0.25BPS even if he hikes 0.25 we still want to see what he say in his speeches is he going to say this is the last hike and we are pausing after this 0.25.
CPI, QQQ Triple Top, KRE / XLF sector, Rate Hikes- CPI data tomorrow will likely determine if we can break that triple top on QQQ
- money rotating around today to tech sectors no a complete FEAR day where money is leaving the market.
- KRE / XLF ETF needs to bounce for SPY to bounce
- 0.25bp current priced in at 62%, and a pause at 38%
- if we break that triple, im looking for a daily bounce and would liking be more long bias then.
SPY & QQQ 15m Trend Change Back to Bulls, Need 1h trend change - After this mornings hourly bear flag with no follow through from bears bulls try to play defense and we had a megaphone pattern play out in the morning.
- QQQ was holding SPY up for the entire day, then the last 30mins bear sectors in SPY joined Bull sector QQQ.
- need to confirm a hourly uptrend to set the daily higher low for bulls.
- would like to see bulls play offense tomorrow.
YOU need to see this now - THE DANGER LINEThis is a wave trend indicator on the S&P 500 index that is based on relative strength with straightforward oversold or overbought conditions. Relative strength is a measure of momentum where both speed (time) and magnitude (change) is measured and plotted with simple or weighted moving averages.
What you are seeing above is a snapshot of a RSI/wave trend of the S&P 500 index based on monthly candles. Understand that it takes the measure of a month of time just to get a single plot of data and this particular snapshot represents over two decades. But right before your eyes are very clear trends. The data is just pure and simple math and math does not lie. Ignore the news. Follow price, volume, momentum.. just follow the data.
I will try not to state my opinion too much.. and just follow the data. What I see on the chart is concerning. If this decline continues over the next month or two, momentum is going to accelerate and volatility go up while the market basically crashes... i.e. if the DANGER LINE is breached. I found it odd that volatility (VIX) has been quite docile considering the amount of downside we've seen in the indices this year. That is concerning. It is entirely possible that the September thru November monthly candles are positive and this trend finds support.. and the danger line is not breached. On the flipside, this decent can continue and really pick up speed and we see a 2000-2003 correction or 2007-2009.
Here is an overlay snapshot with those corrections to similar scale. That is what could happen if the current trend continues.. we could see 12-24 months of recession and very steep drops and sharp bearish reversals. Be careful, manage risk, consider hedging certain positions, and know that you DO NOT know what is going to happen.
Symmetrical triangles confirmed!The truth is that we are starting a bull market and cautious analysts prefer not to say anything, but they are wasting their time waiting, now we see 2 confirmed symmetrical triangles and a third is missing, this is the same thing that happened a few days ago in Bitcoin, taking it to the level it is at now. Targets 53% from here to the first triangle end