SPXL
Haven't been posting but VERY ACTIVESorry for not posting but tend to copy paste data to here and been very busy
$SPX had ACCUMULATION, last day was 11/30
**************Yesterday was 1st sign of DISTRIBUTION**************
#SPX weekly shows LONG TREND in tact & BULL moving avg crossover, for now at least
$VIX #VIX no longer coinciding with
IN-TER-EST-ING
SPY / SPXL - S&P 500 Analysis - Outlook$SPY 👀 – 08/16/2022| S&P 500 | #Future #Outlook 🎯 - 📸 🚨
📌 What’s good #PublicCommunity? Que es la qué hay corrillo?
📌 We’re still currently impulsing within Wave 3 of the Intermediate Degree (in blue). We’ve just completed wave (iv), in black, and should expect another brief rally to complete wave (v), in black, of Wave 5, in red, to complete wave (3), in blue.
📌 After which, we should expect wave (4), in blue, to commence. After 3-7 swings down for corrective waves, ABC, in red, we should expect another brief impulsive rally to complete wave (5), in blue.
📌 Upon the completion of Wave (5), in blue, this should kick off a larger ABC corrective waves, in blue, to correct the entire larger impulse wave 1, in black. After Wave 2, in black, is complete this will terminate a full market cycle. At which point, I will begin accumulating massive amounts of holdings for the next market cycle, waves 3 and 4, in black.
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SPY forecast thru Aug 5 (Updated)The market made a really nice broadening wedge Friday, but we're at major resistance. The market needs to pull back here to cool off and bring more buyers in. VXX is printing hollow red weekly candles which means she's about the blow up again. She's been primed and ready for a breakout for the past two weeks.
Are stocks going to sell off this time?The past 3 FOMC press conferences have been followed up by a pump into the end of day. The last 2 times, the day after, or even after the close of the day, SPX sold off and made a new low. We shall see if history will repeat itself this
this time. If helpful, please boost and follow. Cheers.
SPY AnalysisThis chart shows a trend-based Fibonacci retracement. The trend points used are (1) The market high right before the 2020 selloff, (2) the market low from the 2020 selloff, and (3) the most recent market high (in January 2022).
As the chart shows, SPY has nearly perfect retraced back to the Golden Ratio. My expectation is that SPY will rally into and throughout July 2022.
What are Fibonacci numbers?
Fibonacci numbers are merely a series of numbers in which each successive number is the sum of the prior two numbers. As the series grows, the ratio of each Fibonacci number to the previous Fibonacci number in the series converges to 1.618. Meanwhile, the ratio of each Fibonacci number to the next Fibonacci number converges to 0.618. These ratios often help us mathematically predict important support and resistance points of price action.
Do Fibonacci numbers actually work?
The stock market has always conformed to Fibonacci numbers both because many traders use them and it is thus self-fulfilling, but also because Fibonacci numbers help us mathematically approximate the ebbs and flow of crowd psychology and the fear and greed which dictate market participants' actions. Each time fear takes hold, market participants sell and cause price to fall back to a previous Fibonacci number (often the Golden Ratio, reflected as the proportion: 0.618). Then once the pervasive fear wanes, market participants begin to get greedy as they see a buying opportunity in the lower prices of the market. The fear that once caused selling then shifts to a fear of missing out on profit, and greed regains control of the market. Just as selling begets selling, buying begets buying, and so price continues up to a higher Fibonacci number, thus forming a pattern called the Golden Spiral.
If you don't believe that the stock market has always conformed to Fibonacci numbers, try drawing a Fibonacci retracement level on the S&P 500 (SPX) from its all-time low in 1877 to its high in 1929 just before the Great Depression. You will see that the low point of the Great Recession was, of course, a Fibonacci ratio.
This is just one of an endless amount of Fibonacci sequences that the stock market has followed over the years. Fibonacci sequences dictate price action on all timeframes. To the uninformed person, these endless golden spirals that dictate price action on multiple timeframes simply seems random...
THE HUNT FOR "A" BOTTOM?Are you hunting for a bottom in stocks? Were you bullish 6 months ago but have now turned bearish? Are your trading decisions influenced by your feelings and 'current events'? There is a tremendous amount of information written right here on the charts if you know how to look for it. I will help you to see this. The best advice I can give is this: Do not make trading decisions based on what you think "should" be. Do not allow your anger and emotions into this game. You are not going to change the trend. Do not tie "news" to "price". The market is way ahead of what you believe is 'news'.
I will not play the game of "I told you so" but if you follow my TradingView ideas I shared several warnings for a few months about what I was seeing and it looked concerning. So for me personally, whatever dark and terrible news I have bombarding me from any electronic device is actually good news for my trading. It's not wise to trade strictly against sentiment because sentiment and price often move together for a while. But it is useful as an indicator. The put:call ratio is such an example.. as seen on this chart.
Also observe the rate of change at the top. It can serve as a clue as to when we are about to see a very big move within a short period of time. We are at such a place where it looks like it has the potential to bounce. This could actually be very bearish or very bullish. But price is likely about to make a series of large moves in both directions.
It is my opinion that we are at or very near "A" bottom of some kind. But don't misinterpret what I'm saying. Firstly, I am saying "A" bottom of some kind. It could be medium-short term. Secondly, when I say at or near I am referring to time. So maybe now.. this week or next. I don't know. But price can move severely within that time period. Using the Fibonacci retracement levels, I see a few key levels in the S&P 500. Watch the .786. Watch the .618. Watch this zone at 0.5. My original target for a correction were the two horizontal lines at about 3200-3600. Price is within my crosshairs now.
Where and when you buy is important but also HOW you buy. You do not want to chase the falling knife and back yourself into a corner where you are desperate and pressed. Yes I have been there. In my experience it is best to ease into positions that you have a lot of good evidence for. Slowly.. easily.. carefully. If you like options, consider giving yourself a LOT more time to build into a position and also consider how severely options decay. It's not unwise to go out a year or more on expirations so you're not trapped on the very steep decay. Those are just a few tips I can share.
Stay tuned because I will be posting more information here about current market conditions and potential pivots.
I posted this in December to demonstrate some early warnings for what is currently happening.
S&P 500 VS STOCKSIn this idea, I'm simply taking a look at the S&P 500 verses the actual stocks that make up the S&P 500 by using their 200d and 50d averages. This can be useful as an indicator to look for divergences, early warning signs, or confirmational trend changes.
Top pane = SPX stocks above their 200 day moving average
Middle pane = SPX stocks above their 50 day moving average
Lower pane = SPX index
Since May 2021, it's evident that the stocks > their 200 day and stocks > their 50 day have been trending down while as the overall index has been trending up. This is a sizable divergence that could cause a sudden correction in the index. While I'm speculating, I do not believe the indices have put in their major top yet. But that doesn't mean we will not see a sizable correction with weeks or months of volatility. Let's see if the indices can take a chill pill for a while and offer another buying opportunity.
SP500 - the best time to LONGIn this analysis, I used several leading indicators - commitment of traders index (CFTS), insiders (Form 4 SEC ) and the greed and fear index (CNN Business).
In commitment of traders index I period 19 - it's a middle of 13 (quarter) and 26 (half year). In practice, it is this period that provides the best results (not only on sp500, but also on other instruments). Historically, the chart shows how well this leading indicator performs.
At the moment, we have not yet seen a direct signal to buy, but the fact is that we receive a signal with a slight delay (a week), and it is quite possible that we are actually already in the buy zone. And it is quite possible that we will still go to the previous volume zone (around 3600).
Next indicator is Insiders data. The chart clearly shows that each increased number of insider buying (more than 150) leads to a subsequent increase of the market. Now the indicator reached 180, so we expect the sp500 index to start growing.
Greed and Fear Index is one of the best leading data. And he also shows just perfect results on history! Current values from 7 to 15 are an indicator of extreme fear, and values below 10 start all the longest trends.
I do not set the levels where the sp500 index will reach, as they will be dictated by the market, and leading indicators will show a reversal. And only there I will close long positions in order to get the maximum profit from the growing trend.
P.S. On the chart, for reasons unknown to me, the arrows for insiders and the fear index moved a little - I hope this will not interfere with understanding the idea.
multiple scenarios for mondaydepending how futures market plays out tonight and if people keep buying a mondays open we cod have very different outcomes. the bull case is essentially if we see RSI, Double STOCH signal remain positive or if we hit resistance at gap close and continue lower or make a double bottom. even in the bull case we could rally for a couple weeks and then double bottom. bias cautiously bullish as there are more bull scenarios than bear. even the magenta path is a bull scenario for a few days. staying over TRAMA and causing VWMA to rise with it means strong support for bulls.
spx getting to oversold (SPXL)we are in technical conditions of a selloff and risk averse activity is driving the market. defensive sectors are even doing poorly. there is no reason to think price action will turn around here, vut the price doesnt go anywhere in a straight line. at least one last trip up to mid or upper 95s is a valid target.
do we get the 1hr cup and handlethe harmonic bat pattern played out, and we did get a retrace to the .618 fib level.
I see support around the .50 level, from the D leg down. I'm monitoring this level for a potential breakout out of the handle and retake 4300-4400 by eow week..
Disclosure i'm long spxl and bearish on gold
The AD is showing me a bullish butterfly pattern 2hrThe weekly price action of the S&P 500 is also showing a bullish butterfly pattern. however, for this price action to continue, the lower time frame also must establish the same pattern. In addition, naturally a rejection from B leg, forms a base, and potentially leading us into a high probably cup and handle breakout.
I like to trade the money flow, as it first gives me pattern recognition which I have to later confirm w/ price action ...
not trading or financial advice.
Disclosure im long spxl
probable tightening range (SPXL)given the amount of retracement if we stay over 97 and attract volume setting and confirmin this as a higher low around the .5 its likely we enter a tightening range going for a touch of vwma and then setting a lower high. id like to close that day around the highs for a bull daily case. horizontals are valid targets.
seems a lot like volatility has returned as the norm (SPXL)theres a chance that getting back to all time highs may take a lonh time, and when we get there we may be heading into another drop. if volatility has returned as the new norm there is a lot of evidence to suggest that we wont see a stronger market than 2021 until at least 2023. should we make a second break to the downside whether it is sooner or later a touch of vwma monthly is not unthinkable.