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US Market Technicals Ahead (21 Dec – 25 Dec 2020)The Federal Reserve announced on Friday evening that it will allow the nation’s big banks to resume share buybacks in the first quarter of 2021 subject to certain rules. Bank Stocks rose across the board in post-market trading with $JPM (JP Morgan) +5.3%, $GS (Goldman Sachs) +4.4%, and $WFC (Wells Fargo) +3.5%. Going into the holiday-shortened Christmas week there will still be plenty to watch out for in markets as i) Investors await the vote on a $900 billion coronavirus aid package; ii) Vaccine rollout effort will widen after Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine became the second to receive FDA approval; iii) Monday could see some stock market volatility following Tesla’s addition the S&P 500, as index funds adjust holdings to match the benchmark’s rejig, and iv) Brexit negotiations are in the endgame, putting a trillion dollars worth of trade at risk from tariffs and quotas. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P 500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) have successfully rebounded from the Bullish Reversal Hammer highlighted last week, totaling a gain of +1.80% (+65.8 points). The rally have also seen S&P500 closed the week establishing a new all time high of 3,725 level. Volatility of the index continues to pull lower, with ATR-14 now heading towards September low of 40 points per day ATR-14. With S&P500 remains trading within a 3% trend channel range established since 10th November, the technical strength of the market remains bullish for a continuation rally towards 3,750 level in the upcoming week. The immediate support to watch for any signs of weakness is at 3,660 level, an initial break of the trendline support. Top 3 things to watch this week: 1. Stimulus on the way? The U.S. Congress appears close to a vote on a $900 billion coronavirus relief package, after lawmakers reached a last-minute compromise to overcome one of the final obstacles to a deal. Congressional leaders plan to attach the stimulus package to a $1.4 trillion bill to fund government spending through September 2021. A new government funding deadline is set to expire at midnight Sunday (0500 GMT Monday), risking a government shutdown without a vote. The coronavirus aid package is expected to include one-off $600 checks for most Americans, enhanced unemployment benefits of $300 per week, help for states distributing coronavirus vaccines and more assistance for small businesses. 2. Tesla shakeout Investors may see some volatility on Monday when Tesla ($TSLA) begins trading as part of the S&P 500 as index funds adjust their portfolios to match the benchmark’s shakeup. Tesla shares have rallied almost 700% year-to-date, placing its stock market value at around $600 billion. It is the world’s most valuable auto company, despite having output that is just a fraction of rivals Toyota (NYSE:TM), Volkswagen ($VOW) and General Motors ($GM). Some analysts say its share price is far ahead of fundamentals and there is plenty of debate on how the stock will perform from here on out. 3. Brexit deadline looming With less than two weeks left to go before Britain exits the European Union when the transition period ends on Dec. 31 there is still no trade agreement in place, putting a trillion dollars worth of trade at risk from tariffs and quotas. The talks are still deadlocked on two issues – the EU’s fishing rights in British waters and creating a so-called level playing field providing fair competition rules for both sides. Both sides need to get any deal approved by their parliaments, and with the talks in their final stages, it is expected that any conclusion will most likely come before Christmas.
ULong
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (14 Dec – 18 Dec 2020) $SPXThe S&P 500 ($SPX) wrapped up a losing week, as the outlook for additional fiscal stimulus remained uncertain. The benchmark index declined -0.82% (-30.3 points), with an establishment of an all time high session at 3,715 level during the week. The minor sell off during the week has the volatility of the index at it’s 10 weeks, with price volatility range at an average of +/- 50 points per daily market session. As highlighted during the previous week, S&P 500 remains trading within a very tight 3% trend channel range established since 10th November. The closing of Friday’s session established $SPY a Bullish Reversal Hammer (highlighted), indicating a potential short term rally for the upcoming week. The immediate support to watch is 3,588 classical support level, with SPY poised to recapture its all time high at 3,715 level this upcoming week. Top 3 things to watch this week: 1. Stimulus deadlock Investors are anxious to hear if more fiscal stimulus is coming as surging virus cases lead to fresh containment measures and business closures in many U.S. states. But Congress missed another deadline on Friday to deliver a new fiscal aid package to help revive the economy. The Senate instead passed a stop-gap extension of government funding to allow more time for lawmakers to work out a larger spending package, including coronavirus relief. A deal remains elusive after a months-long standoff between Republicans and Democrats over the size of the potential package. Over 13 million people are due to lose unemployment benefits on Dec. 26 without quick action by Congress. 2. U.S. COVID vaccine campaign gets underway The first doses of the vaccine developed by Pfizer ($PFE) and German partner BioNTech SE ($BNTX) will be delivered to 145 locations around the United States on Monday, marking a turning point in the pandemic that has killed more than 295,000 Americans. Millions of Americans could begin getting vaccinated this month, especially if a second vaccine from Moderna ($MRNA) is approved rapidly. Other companies with vaccines in advanced development include AstraZeneca ($AZN) with Oxford University, and Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ). 3. Fed meeting The Fed is to hold its final monetary policy meeting of 2020 against the background of a faltering economic recovery. The U.S. jobs report for November pointed to a loss of momentum in the labor market and the latest jobless claims data hit the highest since September amid fresh containment measures to curb the spread of the virus. That may prompt policymakers to debate making changes to the bank’s asset purchase program or alter its forward guidance for future purchases, particularly as Congress continues to remain deadlocked over additional fiscal stimulus.
ULong
by jfsrevg
SPX is facing bullish pressure, potential for more upsideDescription: Price is facing bullish pressure from our pivot level and showing room for possible further bullish momentum. We see a medium probability bullish scenario above our pivot 3639.9, with 1st resistance at 3783.0 as a possible target. Failure to hold above pivot at 3639.9 would see price swing the other way towards 1st support at 3590.3. Pivot: 3639.9 Supporting Points: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, Graphical overlap support 1st Support: 3590.3 Supporting Points: Graphical swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 127.2% Fibonacci extension 1st Resistance: 3783.0 Supporting Points: 161.8% Fibonacci extension Trading FX & CFDs carries high risk.
TVC:SPXLong
by M4Academy
Bulls Will Rush In This Week, But Don't Be FooledBased on the last projection, Intermediate wave 4 should be over. The losses of the past week did move into my projected bottom. However, it does not appear a full 3 wave (ABC) cycle occurred. It only looks like the A wave is now complete. I have adjusted my model to account for this and the projections of the next movements are below. I expect gains most or all of this week and more declines through mid to the end of next week. The bottom should occur around next Friday or the final Monday in September. What wave A did: It lasted 40 trading hours (6 trading days) and dropped 277.64. The rise over run of this was a loss of approximately 6.941 points per hour. Wave A tends to make up 39% on average of the larger wave (Intermediate wave 4 in this instance) it makes up. This means Intermediate wave 4 could last around 101 trading hours. Likewise, wave A tends to move 74.6% of Intermediate wave 4’s total move. This means Intermediate wave 4 could drop 372.17 points from top to bottom. This does not mean a straight drop, which will be further illustrated with this week’s projected gains and wave B. Wave B Length In determining how far wave B will move, I have looked at how all B waves for the S&P 500’s Grand Supercycle wave 1 has moved over its 85+ year history. I have used multiple estimations and calculates to narrow down B’s length. B waves tend to last 75% the length of their A counterpart. This means B could last around 30 hours. A waves tend to last 1.32 times the length of B waves. This means B could last around 30.3 hours. Also, A’s makeup of the larger wave is 1.54 times that of wave B. With wave A projected to makeup 39% of the move, this could have wave B last 29.5% of the overall move which equally equates to 29.8 hours. Finally, B waves tend to make up around 25% of the larger wave’s movement. If A is now projected to last around 101 hours. Wave B could last around 25 hours. Based on all of these estimations, I am forecasting Wave B to last around 29-30 hours. This will have it peak around the afternoon on September 17. Wave B Point Move B waves tend to retrace about 60% of wave A’s movement. This could see B rise about 166 points. A’s move tends to be 1.635 times larger than wave B. This could see B gain 169 points total. Wave A’s contribution to the overall larger wave’s (Intermediate wave 4) is typically 1.68 times larger than wave B. If A tends to rise 74.6% of this overall movement (currently projected to be 372.17), then B could makeup 44.4% of the larger wave’s movement which means B could rise 165 points . Separately, Wave B tends to makeup 44% of the larger wave’s movement which is very much inline with the last data point. This could see wave B last 163 points. Finally, on average, wave A’s rise over run is roughly equal (1.00000) to that of wave B. This could mean wave B rises 6.941 points per hour over the course of its length. This does not mean it will rise 6.941 points perfectly ever hour without larger gains or losses in between. Due to my projection of wave B lasting around 29.5 hours and considering this rise over run data point, wave B could gain up to 204.7595 points. The range of potential movement for wave B was tight (163-169) before considering the rise over run data point. My projection for wave B’s peak is around 3477.97 (167.5 point gain). Wave C I will project wave C’s move and length based off of the finalized wave A data and projected wave B data. Wave B’s full data would be 29.5 hours long and 167.5 point gain. This projection would be a rise over run of 5.678 points per hour. Wave B hypothetically lasted 73.75% of wave A’s length (40 hours) and retraced 60.32% of wave A’s movement (277.64). Wave C Length Wave C tends to last 37.02% of the larger wave length. If the larger wave is projected to last 101 hours, wave C would make up around 37 of those hours. Wave C tends to last 107% of wave A’s length. Wave C could last 42.8 hours. A tends to last 1.24 longer than wave C. Wave C could last 32 hours. A’s percentage of the larger wave’s length tends to be around 0.86 of that of C. If A is around 39% of the total length, C would be around 45.34% or last 45.8 hours. Wave B’s length is typically 0.62 times the length of wave C. Wave C could last 47.5 hours. B’s retracement of A’s length is 0.53 times that of C. This could mean wave C extends 139.15% of wave A’s length or last 55.7 hours. B’s portion of the larger wave is typically 0.53 times the size of C’s contribution. This means wave C could make up 54.71% of the larger wave or last 55.3 hours. Considering all of these data points. I currently forecast wave C last approximately 44.5 hours to end around the morning of September 28, 2020. Wave C Point Move Wave C tends to makeup 68% of the larger wave’s movement. If the larger wave meets the forecast of 372.17, wave C could drop 253 points. Wave C typically extends Wave A’s movement by 138.2% (ironically a key Fibonacci number) which would be a 383 point drop. Wave A tends to move 0.85 times that of wave C equating to a 326.635 point drop. Wave A’s portion of the larger wave tends to be 0.92 of C which would make C 81.08% of the larger wave’s move equaling 301.75 points. Wave B tends to move 0.47 that of wave C which would be a wave C drop of 356.38 points. B’s retracement of wave A in relation to C’s extension of wave A is 0.33. This could see C extend 182.79% of wave A’s move or a drop of 507.5 points. Wave B’s move % of the larger wave is typically 0.51 times that of wave C. This could mean wave C makes up 86.27% of the Intermediate wave 4 drop or a wave C contribution of 321.07 points. Wave A’s rise/run is 0.91 times that of wave C. C’s rise/run could be 7.6274 point loss per hour. At 44.5 hours, wave C could drop 335.61 points. Wave B’s rise/run is 1.05 times that of C. C’s rise/run could be 5.4076 points lost per hour equating to a total drop of 243.68 points. The chance of calculating total wave C point loss before the conclusion of wave B is a very rough estimation. This projection will likely be much more refined when I write next weekend. For now, I project C to drop around 350-383 points which is around 3110. Conclusion All told, I have provided windows and estimates for tops and bottoms for waves B and C. I am bullish until early 2022 and still foresee a steady 4-6 month drop beginning around the end of October early November. I would assess this has something to do with the U.S. election results or lack thereof due to ‘vote counting complications.’
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
17
SPX500 intraday tradeHello traders and analysts, Here is a quick trade currently in play. What is price showing us? A discount from the high has been offered by the market - with the 0.705 Fibonacci respected. It is important here to not - the price has broken from the rejection to fill more orders from this hourly offering candle. Using the 4 hour - price has had a nice clean move - and now is tailing off into a consolidation after yesterday move. If price breaks 3420 - sell liquidity is now activated further offering a low resistance trade. Our entry: We are long - entry of 3423 - however chart will read 3427 as Oanda is slightly out as price did not reach the zone the broker has. Quick psychology: Good luck, when happy - cut the trade to let the remainder run. If in drawdown - cut losses if pips fall and panic sets in. This should not happen as using correct risk/reward allows the correct trading plan to win or lose. We hope this mini breakdown helps. Best of luck, Team Lupa.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by LupaCapital
SPX To Retest Highs From Early June At .618 Fib Level To Go LongWe've seen a steady increas of SPX (S&P500) Over the last few weeks, This particular level is of great interest as it not only retests the highs from early June and is less than 20 pips from the 618 level of the fib retracement of the most recent higher high and higher low. All whilst still following the channel. If this comes to fruition, we could see a steady climb back of domincance in the SPX/S&P. Added Plus: President Trump speaks today after market close so we could see this news push it in the direction intended for these purposes. Really keep an eye out on this one. A lot will ride on it.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by BodiesXWix
🤔 Crunchtime! (SPX)💰 LET'S GET INTO SOME SPX 500 ANALYSIS!💰 1️⃣ First off SMASH that LIKE BUTTON & Give us a FOLLOW for DAILY ANALYSIS! ❤❤❤ (Overall Market Sentiment) 🤷 Neutral - 3day Chart - Candle Doji Compression - 2/3 EMA DOTS Red Is corona wave 2 on it's way? I hope so lol. This week will tell us some critical signs to take with us in the market next week. Stay alert as we could be experiencing early signs of trend change. Best of luck to you and all of your trades this week! 🤜 Drop your charts and comments down below, share with us what you think is going on in the markets! ❤❤❤ Thanks for checking out our analysis! ✌😁✌ 🥇MLT | MAJOR LEAGUE TRADER
TVC:SPX
by UnknownUnicorn2319099
6