Falling DXY Indicating a Long Buy for the GBP and EUR vs the USDThere is a clear and obvious Head and Shoulders Pattern developing in the DXY or the US Dollar Index, (also referred to as the USDX).
This H&S Pattern was first evident in Nov 2016 when Trump won the US Elections and it is, currently, again making another appearance.
The Lower Arrow indicates 88, which is where the DXY fell to from the first occurrence of the H&S.
The Rising Trendline (marked in Green between the Upper and Lower Bounds) has been broken and I feel that it will fall substantially, after rising a bit from its current value.
All this implies a good run for the GBP and the EUR vs the USD, (in the case of the GBPUSD; a long trade till 1.3700 or even 1.4000 seems a fairly safe trade).
There is also an interesting side-effect of a falling DXY, and that is, a potential weak rise in US Equities based off the back of a weak US Dollar.
2nd Feb 2020
Spxlong
SPX500 - the market will not allow everyone to earn!Good afternoon! I think many will be interested to know what is happening with the SPX500?
The graph shows the period of long accumulation of the position. And further growth.
The volumes that are currently on the market are simply impressive. It feels like squeezing money out of people creating the effect of lost profit (FOMO).
But you must not forget that there is always a hard fall behind such irrational growth. Maximum levels are indicated on the chart. Therefore, have time to sell on time if you are in a long position.
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Disclaimer:
I am not a certified trader, but I am well versed in the market and successfully trade.
I do not give entry and exit points.
I share with you my opinion and ideas, which may differ from yours.
Potential S&P 500 ScenarioIt's been a while since I shared anything like this... most of the last few things were experimental historical models...
This is all based in Fibonacci, both price and time... this would have us peaking at about 3450 around late September 2020...
Though I don't have the count posted with it, it is based in Elliott Wave as well...
The EW concept here is an extended wave 1, with 3 being 0.786 of 1 and 5 being 0.786 of 3 - which leads to waves 3+5 equaling wave 1 (typical when 1 is extended)...
Just thought I'd share what I was looking at
SPX pulling back for an all time high. Target 3250+ The S&P500 has had high after high over the past few weeks after breaking out of the 3025-3030 all-time high. The index has moved nearly 4% off the new highs. From here we've seen the beginning of the first red week or reversal in 6 weeks of straight gains. It's healthy for the market to pull back slightly before breaking higher. No one wants to buy a top and that is why the volume died out near the top, which caused a sell-off. There is big money waiting below for another rally.
Low-interest rates allow cheaper borrowing, stock buybacks helped assets rally and the new Quantitative Easing 4 from the Fed will all help the market continue to chug along for the next few months. However, before that we can expect a retrace.
The Fib level extension is based on the impulse that brought the price to a new high. We expect the broken all-time high at 3030 or so to hold support before we get a new all-time move into 3250.
I mean we do live in the twlight zoneAs everyone else is seeing we're at the top, and the end of the massive multi year ascending triangle, as well as nearing the top of the Bollinger. These multi year RSI divergences coupled with that massive ascending wedge, and multi year megaphone scream "SHORT!!" or "LOOK OUT BELOW". I do not see this as a clear break out as we are nowhere near breaking these negative divergences and this entire pump has been on half volume. I did not play, nor even entertain the ascending triangle because it was only about 1% to the real resistance at the top of this ascending wedge around $305. And again, it was on half volume. R/R wasn't there.
In my last post or a few posts ago i stated how it would be extra sketchy for us to break up out of the descending triangle prematurely due to unchecked negative divergences on the 1H-4H. Well, that's exactly what we did.
Here in the next week few weeks one of two things is going to happen.
1.) We truly are in the twilight zone and all TA is essentially null and voided by rate cuts, QE that's not really QE, and just cheap and fast capital/leverage sending us on another leg up from here. Irrationality wins the day.
2.) The technicals end up playing out and we break downwards out of this wedge and make our way down to at least the 0.382 fib ($256) or roughly there abouts. That is also likely where the 200 period MA will be as well.
BUT, weekly MACD just crossed, and RSI is breaking the downtrend. There needs to be a conviction break of the top of the ascending wedge on higher than average volume for me to start thinking differently. I don't buy this bullshit for one minute until we do. Until then i'm short SPY and long bonds.
Top of the Bollinger is 305.31. Good luck.
PPT (Plunge Protection Team) hard at work this past week.The PPT's have been hard at work both day and night keeping this shit buoyant. We'll see when they get called off and who's left holding the bag. This has been a low volume pump the entire way propped up by large buy walls that come through as market sells when the market starts eating shit. Makes me suspect. But hey, who knows.
TRADERSAI A.I. Powered Model Trades for Today, WED 06/19When Everyone and Their Grandmother "Knows" What the Fed and the Market are Going to Do...
When everything looks and feels so obvious and everyone knows what the market is going to do ("Fed indicates they are going to lower the interest rates soon, and the market rockets upwards", of course), it might be time to pause a bit and let the noise settle down.
The above chart gives the Aggressive Intraday Model trading plans for today. Please check out the full plan on our website.
Good luck with your trading today!
#ES #SP500 #SPX #SPY #Fed
A.I. Powered Morning Trading Plans - OutcomesThe chart depicts how the trading plans published in the morning - idea published on TradingView at 9:52am - tracked the market action. You can read the detailed results tracking at our site tradersAI.
Hope you all had a good trading day, and if not, remember that tomorrow is another day of opportunity to utilize the lessons learned and the experience gained. Good night!
TRADERSAI A.I. Powered Model Trades for TUE 06/18Markets Waiting for the Fed Tomorrow to Unwind
The following trading plans are indicated for the regular session today:
Note: For the trades to trigger, the breaks should occur during regular session hours starting at 9:30am ET. Due to the intraday nature of the aggressive models, they indicate closing any open trades at 3:55pm and remaining flat into the session close. No opening of new positions after 3:45pm. Only one open position at any given time.
Medium-Frequency Models: For today, our medium-frequency models indicate carrying the short from yesterday until the trailing stop is hit. When closed, the models indicate opening a long on a break above 2910 and opening a short on a break below 2882, both sides with a 10-point trailing stop.
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate using the 2895 as a pivot - going short on a break below 2895 and going long on a break above 2895, both sides with a 7-point trailing stop.
#ES #SP500 #SPX #SPY #Fed
SHORT SPX Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A ReversalSPX is approaching its resistance at 2900.7(61.8% Fibonacci extension , 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 2723.5(38.2% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension , horizontal swing low
support).Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
SPX Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A ReversalSPX is approaching its resistance at 2900.7(61.8% Fibonacci extension , 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 2723.5(38.2% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension , horizontal swing low
support).Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
SPX Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal
SPX is approaching its resistance at 2900.7(61.8% Fibonacci extension , 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 2723.5(38.2% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension , horizontal swing low
support).Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
SPX Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal
SPX is approaching its resistance at 2900.7(61.8% Fibonacci extension , 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 2723.5(38.2% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension , horizontal swing low
support).