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Spxlong

SPX - Thursday 5/22 should decide moveEvening traders, We're in a tight range and wanted to point couple of things I see out. Firstly, we have a sloppy upward sloping H&S forming on the daily, additionally, there is another sloppy inverted H&S on the hourly targeting 2890. MACD is about to tick positive, Stoch RSI is neutral, and it's trading in between the 5/10 MA's Move should be tomorrow, I'm currently all cash except for a few google puts Daily and weekly support further downside, and any upside movement should be capped at 2890. As always, hit that like and follow button!
SP:SPX
by ant187
Long if We Surpass Records, Short if We CantThe S&P 500 is flirting with record highs again after a major correction last December which only missed becoming a bear market by a marginal amount ending just shy of down 20 percent. Going on to the 11th year in the bull market, investors should then take a look at where we could be and a few signals to determine where we are headed which can be found on Daily FX’s Discovery to Deflation chart. If you follow the S&P 500 then you will notice that recent price action interestingly resembles areas around the the blow-off and transition phase. However, the problem with this road map is that we simply do not know where we are in the cycle. As of right now, either we are in between the bear-trap and renewed optimism, or we are between a bull-trap and THE lower-high or the final lower-high before a massive downturn (hence emphasizing ‘the’). If we look at the S&P 500 and the above chart, we can see where these levels could be. Since this is the case, we are forced to look at some other signals. First, volume on average has been a noticeable step lower ever since December 2018 on either of the bull or bear side. Second, while the consecutive candle count shows a recent uptick in consecutive up days, the down days are much more volatile. In other words, it only took a few down days to correct almost 20 percent and three months to gain it back. In spite of this, while the downward volatility is extreme so too is the upward momentum. A near 20 percent gain in three months is incredible for any asset. Most mutual and hedge funds would be happy with 20 percent returns over 3 years let alone over 3 months. In other words, price action is incredibly choppy. Where are markets this choppy? Usually at the end of a bull cycle during what’s referred to as the distribution phase. Yes, choppiness occurs during public participation phase as well, but the public participation phase occurs mid-cycle and not after ten years. There could potentially be what has been referred to as an elongated cycle. This is possible, but lacks precedent in the United States as the current bull market is now the oldest bull market in history coming in at 10 years. Overall, a bearish view is not just predicated on these cyclical theories. We know global growth is already slowing. Germany just barely avoided recession this year while Italy is already in one. China may be in recession as well, but we wouldn’t know because they manipulate their data to such an extreme. Capital inflows into markets are significantly lower since the bull run began in 2009. Interest rates across the world are at 0 while the only hawkish central bank, the Fed, has reversed course on fears of the global growth slowdown. A common truism in trading is “Don’t short support, don’t buy resistance.” Maybe we can reach more record highs, but let’s not go all in until we can pass the current ones. If we don’t and pass below December’s levels, then markets will start to panic and you should too if you’re still in stocks by then.
SP:SPX
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Panic if SPX500 Does not Bust Through Record HighsNot a perfect pattern, but few are. If the SPX500 does not reach record highs and does not go beyond those record highs with strong conviction, then it will suffer from the exact same chart pattern DJI did right before the 2008 Financial Crisis. If price action starts to move down then we would be witnessing a large head and shoulders pattern right into a financial crash or at the very least a large correction. We already know a recession is coming sometime in the upcoming year, but the question is when. However, that does not mean I am saying this pattern will form. I'm just saying its possible. And if it starts to form, be very very careful. Also by the way, volume is super f word low right now probably indicating most traders are skeptical as to why they should buy at such high levels. It is the second lowest level of volume since 2006 with the lowest level of volume since 2006 only occurring last year. Big red flag guys and gals. Too expensive for many. Expect institutional traders to attempt to unload their positions that they too believe are probably too expensive.
SP:SPX
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
SPX If it is not a bear market what might happenWhat if this is not a bear market. Has the market ever fallen 20% and then recovered. Well it did of course on that famous day in 1987. The low was in on the first day. The last time a correction exceeded 20% but went no further was twenty years ago in August and (double-bottom) October 1998. The charts show some, if not complete similarity to 1998. It was preceded by a small 12% correction, then rose to new highs, and then softened by 20% over a months (or a couple of months if you count the double bottom, and there was a consolidation with the 50% point as a base. My other model (what is there is a bear market) also shows a recovery before falling again, so it is only at the second bottom we will know for sure.
SP:SPXLong
by adatherton
6
What Is This Full Moon Doing for Stock Market?Full Moon as New Moon often brings energy to stock markets. As the chart shows that more times one or two days before and after Full moon we see sell-off and then rally on stock markets while sometimes it's inversed: markets rally first and then sell off. What has this month's Full Moon been doing then? Full Moon for January occurs on Sunday, Jan. 20 and we have seen a little stronger rally on last Thursday and Friday. Today is a holiday and market is closed and we might see last week's rally continue in one or two days of this week forming a short term top followed by some down days. Trading cannot be solely based on Moon Phases, but they do offer some clue. Right now SPX has retraced about 55% of drop down from its historical high to the low around last Christmas (61.8% retracement 2712.38), closed above its 50-day MA (not show on chart) for two days at 2670.71 on Friday, and got near to its 100-day MA (2732) and 200-day MA (2741). The down trendline point for tomorrow is around 2695. Let's see how the market will react to these resistance levels next two days. By the way, there is a cross over of two trendlines on the daily chart. Sometimes two trendlines cross over may correlate a turning point date. It's Tuesday and Wednesday and let's also see what would happen then. "Trade what you see, not what you think," this is what I learn from a professional trader and the market itself. So far the indicators and price on SPX daily chart are very bullish. I have to wait until there is a sell signal before actually going short.
SP:SPXShort
by dragonus
SPX Possible Route to Double BottomFriday's rally was strong, and although NFP euphoria fades, the Powell 'patient' remark and the resumption of China talks are very positive. An A-B-C rally takes us to the .618 retrace from the last high, which is close to the .5 retrace seen in the 20% drop in 1998, for example, and in 2016, before the inevitable double bottom some time in Q1. After that, it's anyone's guess. 2628-2644 is the confluence of the .618 from the last drop, the .5 from the ATH, the 29/30 Oct and 20/22 Nov closing lows, and and A-B-C extension from the bottom, given the New Year opening pullback. The parallel channel helps as well. Buy a little below here for 2628, then sell for 2347.
SP:SPXLong
by adatherton
4