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How the U.S. Presidential Election May Impact the S&P 500 IndexHow the U.S. Presidential Election May Impact the S&P 500 Index Today, 5 November, the U.S. presidential election is underway, and it may serve as a significant driver of volatility for global stock markets. According to EuroNews, heightened market fluctuations are expected throughout the voting period on 5 November, potentially mirroring reactions observed during the Brexit referendum and the 2016 U.S. election. Newsweek notes that historically, U.S. stock markets tend to rise regardless of the election winner. In 2020, for example, American stocks rose immediately after election day and continued upward even as Trump contested the results. Investor’s Business Daily highlights Tony Roth, CIO of Wilmington Trust, who argues that U.S. stock markets could climb regardless of whether Harris or Trump wins, as both candidates provide viable economic paths that could support market sentiment. On 14 October, analysing the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), we plotted three narrow upward channels (shown in blue), noting: → each channel has a similar slope and width; → connecting the maximum of Channel 1, the peak and trough of Channel 2, and the low of Channel 3 outlines a larger channel (in orange). Today’s technical analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows the current index level near the lower edge of the third blue channel, with additional support around: → former resistance at $5678; → the lower orange boundary. Election results may trigger a volatility spike, potentially testing or reinforcing these support levels, which could shape future market momentum. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
4
What Is the S&P 500 Index and How to Trade It via CFDs?What Is the S&P 500 Index and How to Trade It via CFDs? The S&P 500 index is a cornerstone of the financial world, providing a snapshot of the US stock market by tracking 500 of the largest companies. This FXOpen article delves into the essence of the S&P 500, its operational mechanics, and how traders can navigate its movements through CFDs. What Is the S&P 500? The S&P 500 index, established in 1957, serves as a barometer for the US economic health, tracking the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is widely regarded as one of the best representations of the US stock market and a leading indicator of other US equities. The index is managed by Standard & Poor's, a division of S&P Global, and is updated to reflect changes in the market and economy. Inclusion in the S&P 500 is based on several criteria, such as market capitalisation, liquidity, domicile, public float, financial viability, and the length of time publicly traded. Market capitalisation, in particular, is a critical factor, ensuring that the index reflects the largest and most stable companies that meet Standard & Poor's stringent requirements. The criteria may change, so you can check the latest updates on the S&P Dow Jones Indices website. The index uses a market capitalisation-weighted formula. In essence, market capitalisation weighting means those with a greater value, like Apple or Microsoft, have an outsized impact on the index’s movements. The calculation involves summing the adjusted market capitalisation of all 500 companies and dividing it by a divisor, a proprietary figure adjusted by Standard & Poor's to account for changes such as stock splits, dividends, and mergers. S&P 500 stocks span all sectors of the economy, from technology and health care to financials and consumer discretionary. This broad sector diversification makes the index a valuable tool for investors seeking exposure to the entire US economy through a single investment. The diversity and size of the companies included in the index also mean that it can serve as a benchmark for the performance of investment funds and portfolios. What Moves the S&P 500? Anyone learning how to invest in the S&P 500 will inevitably realise that a range of factors drives its movements. These include: - Economic Indicators: Data such as US GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation can sway investor sentiment and market performance. - Corporate Earnings: Quarterly earnings reports from companies within the index provide insights into their financial health, impacting their stock prices and the overall index. - Interest Rates: Decisions by the Federal Reserve on interest rates can affect investor behaviour, as they influence borrowing costs and investment returns. - Global Events: Political instability, geopolitical tensions, and global economic developments can lead to market volatility, affecting the index. - Market Sentiment: Investors' perceptions and reactions to news and events play a crucial role in short-term market movements. These elements combined dictate the daily and long-term trends seen in the S&P 500. Trading the S&P 500 Index with CFDs Trading the S&P 500 index has become a preferred method for investors seeking exposure to the performance of the US equity market. While S&P 500 ETFs, such as SPY, offer a popular way to invest directly in the performance of the 500 companies making up the index, many traders opt for S&P 500 Contracts for Difference (CFDs) for enhanced flexibility. S&P 500 CFDs allow traders to speculate on the index's price movements without owning the underlying assets. This trading instrument mirrors the price movements of the S&P 500, enabling traders to open positions on both rising and falling markets. A key advantage of S&P 500 CFDs is the ability to use leverage, which can amplify returns. However, you should remember that leverage also increases risks. Traders can go long (buy) if they anticipate the index will rise or go short (sell) if they expect it to fall. As with all CFDs, traders must consider factors such as the spread—the difference between the buy and sell prices—and the overnight financing cost, or swap, which may be charged when positions are held open past the market close. Understanding these costs is crucial for effective trading. At FXOpen, we offer both US SPX 500 mini (S&P 500 E-mini at FXOpen) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) CFDs in our TickTrader platform, catering to all traders looking to take advantage of the movements in one of the world’s most-followed equity indices. How You Can Trade S&P 500 CFDs Trading S&P 500 CFDs requires a nuanced approach, given the index's unique characteristics and the broader economic factors influencing it. Leveraging Economic Releases The S&P 500 is particularly sensitive to US economic indicators such as employment data, inflation reports, and GDP figures. Traders can use these releases to gauge market sentiment and anticipate potential movements. For instance, stronger-than-expected economic growth can boost the index, while disappointing data may lead to declines. Monitoring Earnings Seasons Given that the S&P 500 comprises 500 of the largest US companies, their quarterly earnings reports are a significant driver of index performance. Traders often keep a close eye on earnings seasons, as positive surprises from key index constituents can lead to upward movements, while negative reports can drag the index down. Following Federal Reserve Announcements Interest rate decisions and monetary policy statements from the Federal Reserve have a profound impact on the S&P 500. Lower interest rates generally support higher index levels by reducing the cost of borrowing and encouraging investment, whereas hints of rate hikes can cause declines. Utilising Technical Analysis For S&P 500 CFDs, technical analysis can be particularly insightful. Support and resistance levels, trendlines, and moving averages can help traders identify potential entry and exit points. Given the index's liquidity and the vast number of traders watching these indicators, technical analysis can be a powerful tool. Applying Risk Management Due to the leverage involved in CFD trading, effective risk management is crucial. Setting stop-loss orders can potentially help protect against significant losses, especially during volatile market conditions. Additionally, position sizing is an important consideration, potentially limiting the risk exposure of a given trade. Final Thoughts Understanding the complexities and opportunities of trading the S&P 500 index, particularly through CFDs, offers a strategic advantage for those looking to navigate the financial markets. For those ready to dive into the dynamic world of S&P 500 trading, opening an FXOpen account can provide the necessary tools, resources, and platform to engage with the market effectively. Whether you're looking to trade the S&P 500 or explore other asset classes, FXOpen offers a gateway to a wide range of trading opportunities in the global markets. FAQ What Stocks Make Up the S&P 500? The S&P 500 consists of 500 of the largest companies listed on US stock exchanges. Companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google's parent company, Alphabet, are significant contributors, given their large market capitalisations. Check the list here. What Is the Difference Between the Nasdaq and the S&P 500? The Nasdaq is tech-centric, including a large number of technology and biotech companies, while the S&P 500 is broader and viewed as a more comprehensive representation of the US economy. Is an S&P 500 Index a Good Investment? Since its inception, the S&P 500 index has delivered a historical return of around 9.9% annually. However, like any investment, it carries risks, and its past performance is not a guarantee of future results. What Is the 20-year Return of the S&P 500? The 20-year return, between 2004 and 2023, stands at 9%. What Is the S&P 500 All-Time High? The S&P 500's all-time high can vary as the market fluctuates. Its most recent all-time high was 5,100.92 on the 23rd of February, 2024. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXMEducation
by FXOpen
2
S&P 500 Reaches Another Record HighS&P 500 Reaches Another Record High As shown by the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the leading US stock index set its 45th record of the year, closing above 5800 on Friday. This marks the fifth consecutive week of growth, with the index up more than 22% since the start of the year. According to Reuters, the bullish market sentiment is driven by the start of Q3 earnings season, with companies possibly issuing bolder forecasts due to the beginning of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle. What are the prospects for the index until the end of 2024? A technical analysis of the daily S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows: In 2024, price action has been contained within three relatively narrow ascending channels (shown in blue), where: → The first two channels remained valid for at least 80 candles, and the third has now reached 30 candles; → The channels have similar slopes and widths; → Drawing lines through the high of Channel 1, the high and low of Channel 2, and the low of Channel 3 forms a larger channel (shown in orange). If the bullish sentiment persists, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) may continue to rise within the third blue channel towards the upper orange line. However, several factors could significantly impact the market before the year's end: → Labour market data, as well as Fed decisions and comments; → US presidential elections and budget approval; → Company earnings and forecasts that fall well below market expectations. Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the S&P 500 could reach 6,000 by the end of 2024. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
3
S&P 500 Sets Record Ahead of Fed DecisionS&P 500 Sets Record Ahead of Fed Decision As shown by the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), yesterday's trading saw the index hit a new intraday high of 5,678.9, surpassing the previous record of 5,677.5 set on 16 July. However, the bulls were unable to maintain this historic peak, which is a negative sign, suggesting the possibility of a bear trap scenario. Nevertheless, this first new record in two months is significant as it shows the market's recovery from the panic-driven drop on 5 August, which was linked to fears of a potential recession. Yesterday’s rise was boosted by the US Commerce Department's August retail sales report, which exceeded expectations. As Forbes noted, this supports the view that the US is not on the brink of a recession. The market now heads into the final stretch before the highly anticipated Federal Reserve decision, expected today at 21:00 GMT+3, which will likely see the first interest rate cut in 4.5 years. According to Forex Factory, analysts predict a rate cut to 5.25% from the current 5.50%. However, surprises are possible, with a 0.5% cut also on the table. Only a small minority seems to expect the rate to remain unchanged. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows that the market is in an uptrend, marked by a blue channel. The index is trading near the median of this channel, suggesting a balance of supply and demand. Such conditions increase the likelihood of a flat market, but this seems unlikely with the Fed potentially starting a rate-cutting cycle. Prepare for volatility today: the decision will be announced at 21:00 GMT+3, followed by Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 21:30 GMT+3. If a bearish move occurs, support for the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) may come at the 5,400 level. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
2
S&P 500 Rises Following Inflation Data ReleaseS&P 500 Rises Following Inflation Data Release Historically, September has been the worst month for the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), and the start of the month reflected this trend, with the index dropping around 4.5% from 1 to 6 September, indicating bearish sentiment. However, yesterday's event — the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — may have marked a turning point. According to Reuters, US inflation data showed that the core CPI rose by 0.28% in August, slightly above the forecast of 0.2%. This led market participants to believe that the Federal Reserve might agree to a 25-basis point rate cut next Wednesday. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart indicates: → The price is moving within an ascending channel (shown in blue), having rebounded from its lower boundary yesterday and breaking the local descending trend line (shown in red). → The movement from B to C is approximately 50% of the A to B impulse, a bullish signal that suggests the "normal" correction may be complete, indicating a potential rally from the 5 August low. → Yesterday's price drop was a false move (indicated by the arrow), creating a bear trap. As of mid-month, the outlook appears positive. It’s possible that the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) could finish the month in the green, though the Fed's long-anticipated rate cut decision, expected next week, will play a crucial role in this outcome. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
2
September – The Worst Month for the S&P 500September – The Worst Month for the S&P 500 August was a turbulent month for the US stock market. On the 5th, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) experienced its largest daily drop since 2022, falling by 3%. However, the index ended August up by 3.7% and is now just 0.3% below its all-time high of around 5672 set in July. What can we expect in September? Historically, it is the worst month for the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen). Statistics show that the index has typically declined by an average of 1.1% in September. The month starts with a long weekend due to Labour Day in the US, but volatility is likely to increase as traders return from their holidays. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows: → The price is moving within an ascending channel (shown in blue), having tested the lower boundary of the channel on 5 August before returning to the upper half of the channel with a wide candle on 15 August (shown by the arrow). → The level of 5568, which showed signs of resistance at the end of July and early August, was broken to the upside on the 19th. This level, now "reinforced" by the median line of the channel, could serve as a base for bulls trying to set a new all-time high. If such an attempt occurs, it is possible that the price will reach the upper boundary of the channel, where resistance is expected. → The bears' attempt to lower the price on 28 August (second arrow) failed, further indicating that the bullish side has the upper hand. Thus, the start of the month looks promising, but the fundamental backdrop will be crucial. The key event for September is the Fed meeting on the 18th, where a 0.25% rate cut is anticipated – currently, the rate stands at a 23-year high of 5.5%. However, market sentiment may shift depending on the employment report for August, scheduled for release on 6 September. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
3
The S&P 500 Index Approaches Historic HighThe S&P 500 Index Approaches Historic High On 2 August, we analysed the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart, where we: → Constructed an ascending channel A-B with a median line shown as a dotted line; → Highlighted the risk of a bearish breakout (as indicated by the red arrow). Since then: → The price dropped by more than 5% to the 5 August low, doubling the width of the A-B channel towards point C – the B line became the median of a wider channel. The index's decline was driven by recession fears, based on weak US labour market data; → However, the price then began to recover from the lower boundary of the wider channel, indicating that recession fears have subsided and the rally continues; → The price has now returned close to historical highs. Yesterday, the minutes from the FOMC meeting on 30-31 July were released, revealing that the vast majority of participants noted that if data continues to align with expectations, it might be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting. The S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) index remained largely unchanged on this news – this indicates market participants' belief that interest rates will likely be cut in September, which would stimulate economic growth, company performance, and stock indices. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart today shows that: → On 7-8 August, bears attempted to resume the downward trend but failed; → In mid-August, price action made the trendlines shown in purple relevant; → On 15 August, the B line was confidently broken (indicated by the blue arrow); → The dotted line is showing signs of resistance. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that bulls have regained control of the market after the sharp decline in the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) in early August. If the sentiment remains unchanged, we could see attempts to reach a new historical high. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
2
S&P 500 Index Price Falls Amid Negative NewsS&P 500 Index Price Falls Amid Negative News Yesterday, disappointing news about the US economy was released. According to ForexFactory: → The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.5 to 46.8 (analysts expected a rise to 48.8), indicating a decline in industrial production. → The number of unemployment benefit claims reached 249,000 – the highest in 12 months. As a result, US stock indices declined, with bearish sentiment further driven by weak Q2 reports from several companies: → Intel decided to halt dividend payments (INTC shares plummeted by 19%). → Amazon reported a revenue decline (AMZN shares dropped by 6%). The outperformance of sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities compared to technology stocks suggests that investors fear a recession and are rotating into more stable assets. Meanwhile, the daily S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) indicates a vulnerable position – since mid-April, the price has been moving within an upward channel (shown in blue), but today it is near the lower boundary, creating a risk of a bearish breakout. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen): → Having twice acted as support, the 5585 level has become resistance (as indicated by the arrows). A similar transformation may occur with the psychological level of 5400. → The lower highs in July provide grounds to define the contours of a downward channel, which will gain more relevance if the bears manage to push the price through the lower blue boundary – intensifying recession talks. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
1