Page 2 | SPXM — Trading Ideas on TradingView

September – The Worst Month for the S&P 500 September – The Worst Month for the S&P 500 August was a turbulent month for the US stock market. On the 5th, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) experienced its largest daily drop since 2022, falling by 3%. However, the index ended August up by 3.7% and is now just 0.3% below its all-time high of around 5672 set in July. What can we expect in September? Historically, it is the worst month for the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen). Statistics show that the index has typically declined by an average of 1.1% in September. The month starts with a long weekend due to Labour Day in the US, but volatility is likely to increase as traders return from their holidays. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows: → The price is moving within an ascending channel (shown in blue), having tested the lower boundary of the channel on 5 August before returning to the upper half of the channel with a wide candle on 15 August (shown by the arrow). → The level of 5568, which showed signs of resistance at the end of July and early August, was broken to the upside on the 19th. This level, now "reinforced" by the median line of the channel, could serve as a base for bulls trying to set a new all-time high. If such an attempt occurs, it is possible that the price will reach the upper boundary of the channel, where resistance is expected. → The bears' attempt to lower the price on 28 August (second arrow) failed, further indicating that the bullish side has the upper hand. Thus, the start of the month looks promising, but the fundamental backdrop will be crucial. The key event for September is the Fed meeting on the 18th, where a 0.25% rate cut is anticipated – currently, the rate stands at a 23-year high of 5.5%. However, market sentiment may shift depending on the employment report for August, scheduled for release on 6 September. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The S&P 500 Index Approaches Historic High The S&P 500 Index Approaches Historic High On 2 August, we analysed the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart, where we: → Constructed an ascending channel A-B with a median line shown as a dotted line; → Highlighted the risk of a bearish breakout (as indicated by the red arrow). Since then: → The price dropped by more than 5% to the 5 August low, doubling the width of the A-B channel towards point C – the B line became the median of a wider channel. The index's decline was driven by recession fears, based on weak US labour market data; → However, the price then began to recover from the lower boundary of the wider channel, indicating that recession fears have subsided and the rally continues; → The price has now returned close to historical highs. Yesterday, the minutes from the FOMC meeting on 30-31 July were released, revealing that the vast majority of participants noted that if data continues to align with expectations, it might be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting. The S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) index remained largely unchanged on this news – this indicates market participants' belief that interest rates will likely be cut in September, which would stimulate economic growth, company performance, and stock indices. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart today shows that: → On 7-8 August, bears attempted to resume the downward trend but failed; → In mid-August, price action made the trendlines shown in purple relevant; → On 15 August, the B line was confidently broken (indicated by the blue arrow); → The dotted line is showing signs of resistance. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that bulls have regained control of the market after the sharp decline in the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) in early August. If the sentiment remains unchanged, we could see attempts to reach a new historical high. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

S&P 500 Index Price Falls Amid Negative News S&P 500 Index Price Falls Amid Negative News Yesterday, disappointing news about the US economy was released. According to ForexFactory: → The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.5 to 46.8 (analysts expected a rise to 48.8), indicating a decline in industrial production. → The number of unemployment benefit claims reached 249,000 – the highest in 12 months. As a result, US stock indices declined, with bearish sentiment further driven by weak Q2 reports from several companies: → Intel decided to halt dividend payments (INTC shares plummeted by 19%). → Amazon reported a revenue decline (AMZN shares dropped by 6%). The outperformance of sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities compared to technology stocks suggests that investors fear a recession and are rotating into more stable assets. Meanwhile, the daily S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) indicates a vulnerable position – since mid-April, the price has been moving within an upward channel (shown in blue), but today it is near the lower boundary, creating a risk of a bearish breakout. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen): → Having twice acted as support, the 5585 level has become resistance (as indicated by the arrows). A similar transformation may occur with the psychological level of 5400. → The lower highs in July provide grounds to define the contours of a downward channel, which will gain more relevance if the bears manage to push the price through the lower blue boundary – intensifying recession talks. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.