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SPXS

4th TIME'S A CHARM?When in doubt, zoom out. Sometimes we miss the forest for the trees when we fail to take a step back. Open your mind to a broader range of data. There's simple math working behind every trend, of every candle, on every timeframe. Make a habit of studying those monthly candles every so often. It will allow you to see things you previously hadn't. Take a look at the wavetrend indicator at the bottom and the three touches that have occurred: 1st - Jan 2018 2nd - Sept 2018 3rd - Jan 2020 4th - in process? I believe this month (jan 21) and the next (Feb 21) are critical to this trend and whether or not we blow through into a parabolic rage or we have another correction. Take note, however of divergences on monthly timeframes by scrolling out and looking back at the tech bubble as well as 2014-2015. Bearish divergences are worth paying attention to but it does not mean that the market will respond in the way you think. There may be a loss of momentum but price can still creep up for months or years. I tend to think we'll have some volatility this month as well as the next but I'm not so sure I'd call a top here. We can creep up for months or years or even blast upward into a hyper bubble. I have other tools and indicators I use to look for major tops but I'm not so sure that I see a major top yet. Let me know your thoughts and where you think price is going!
SP:SPX
by gghsusa
16
Must have hedge in every portfolio SPXS I cannot stress the importance of having this must have inverse ETF in your portfolio during these uncertain times. I have lost faith in believing anything I see or hear after living through 2020. I do not trust the news, data, markets, govt, etc. after going through the biggest fuck fest of my lifetime. This year I learned everything there was to learn about my personality through trading. Trading exposes all of your weaknesses and strengths. It also exposes all of your bullshit and allows you to learn to change your very strong beliefs that market doesn't give a fuck about. Charts also expose all of the bullshit about markets. Divergence (bearish or bullish) is usually a bullshit-expose-barometer for me personally. This chart is probably the biggest mindfuck I had pleasure looking at this past months. If I saw this MAGA bullish divergence on any other stock, I would be buying this stock with all of my ammo and I'd throw a kitchen sink at it. However, with Jerry at the driving wheel - I have no idea what this will do next but I wish Jerry and the gang a Happy New Year and I hope that demogorgon doesnt get his ass and doesnt drag him into the upside down cause Jim Hopper aint coming for his ass. All I am trying to say - keep this one on your radar. For those not familiar with this ETF, copy pasting it from Google: "SPXS is an extremely aggressive bet against the S&P 500, promising to provide -300% of the index's return for a one-day period. The fund, like most geared inverse products, is designed to deliver its 3x inverse exposure to the S&P 500—a cap-weighted basket of 500 of the largest firms in the U.S.—for one trading day." Happy New Year Fellas! PS: always do your own research, dont listen to pajama pants traders online.
AMEX:SPXS
by bossmodetrader
8
SPY - Road to $400 What could cause the next sell off? 1. New virus mutations 2. No stimulus deal 3. Looming eviction crisis 4. Valuation concerns and earnings miss 5. Technical bearish divergence (look at all previous similar set ups on the chart) 6. Possibility of Govt shut down 7. Cyber security breach. What news can come from it? 8. Trump and recent Iran tensions If any or a combination of these catalysts materialize, House and Trump will have to come to an agreement fast (before inauguration) and approve the MAGA way stimulus plan. If 20-30% of all money supply was created in 2020 - DO NOT expect SPY to go anywhere close to $220 (thats just mathematically not possible) and thats wishful thinking....even if you a perma bear. What seems to be possible is a brief drop to $320-330 area, on the way there we would fill a few gaps and we would turn around on stimulus deal and go to our long term ultimate target of $400. What about gaps down below? Well, they will have to wait for now. Definitely do not take any of my posts as a trading advice but hopefully you find them somewhat useful.
AMEX:SPYShort
by bossmodetrader
24
Bullish divergence on SPXSSPXS has been slowly gaining strength. The RSI is reversing from oversold territory while the OBV bounced off a support. Similar price action can be seen before the March pump. With the S&P and major tech stocks at all time high, it may be wise to get a hedge. In addition, US election limbo may lead to high volatility in the coming weeks. This is a short term trade. Do not hold long term due to its decay. Price targets: 4.85 6.5 Note: This is not financial advise. Please do your own research.
AMEX:SPXSLong
by CryptoPaily
BULL WANDERING INTO A BEAR DENPRICE vs MOMENTUM forming a compression divergence. Notice the lower indicator and the trend on both sides. Price has been broadening the last few years while momentum/strength has been compressing. This is a hidden bull diverging into a massive bear divergence with the potential for a 3x touch here soon. Hidden divergences are historically weaker than regular divergences so the odds are in the bear's favor. We'll just have to see which one the CB's are rooting for.
TVC:DJI
by gghsusa
26
SPY - Wednesday, November 4Bulls showed up today. We've pierced thru a couple significant resistance levels in the past couple days. But will it continue? If we're going to go long at this point we want to see a big volume candle bust thru the cloud, pullback and bounce to continue the trend that's been developing over the past couple days. Momentum has been steadily rising over the past few days, which has made me want to put on my bull hat, but note the OBV divergence across the day. This is not what you would normally see when price is ready to break out. Momentum may be artificially propping these prices up. If you cycle down to the lower time frames, pay attention to when price action runs away from you, as it did in the last 5 minutes of todays trading session. There was some bullish buying, but the sellers aren't gone yet. Might need to range at these prices for another week while the VIX cools down before we see headway into the $440s, otherwise, expect a blowout top with a quick breakdown to the past week lows. The bounce at $335 was enough to get me to close my short position, but I still want to see some evidence that prices can hold at these levels before going long.
AMEX:SPY
by SLOPolarBear
SPY/SPX - Road MapThe market tries to give hints about what direction it's heading by giving us pivot points. If we look back over the past couple months, we can see a point of confluence where price action looks like it got into a really bad accident. Immediately prior, it took a spill and formed an ascending triangle. The point of confluence is the juxtaposition of FANG (and similar stocks) and the other 99% of the S&P. FANG is flying high every day. The other 99% of the S&P (the dead weight) felt resigned to accumulate a nice steady upward trajectory (ascending triangle) -- you can see these patterns all over the index. The high flying tech stocks however, are a component of the S&P and they've made the index 'drunk'. Hence the the overly zealous breakout of the the ascending wedge. But the index is schizophrenic, it has two dichotomous identities. And we see that with the quick rise and fall of Apple paired with the steadily rising banks and manufacturers. With big tech taking a back seat, I think the S&P is reverting to the other 99%o of the index. Monday and Tuesday will tell if we see a bounce off of the top of the ascending triangle and further test of it's ascending leg. This is the image we expect of a market coping with a pandemic, social & political upheaval, and major unknowns (yet cautious optimistic) about the economy.
AMEX:SPYShort
by SLOPolarBear
1
SPX - Breakout Note the increase in momentum confirmed with RSI/CMF and MACD histograms (those silly after-hours traders mucked up the histogram, otherwise we would have seen a nice clean divergence line). Price action is at sensitive levels so this is not a place for the buy-and-hold crowd to open a position. For Ichimoku fans, future cloud is green with a slight bearish span B (again, blame the pre-market traders for that one), but otherwise the future looks good. I'm ultimately using the rim of the cup (sloping down yellow) as my confirmation that the market views this as a Cup & Handle breakout. Shorts were covering all day today, if we gap up I suspect we'll see an explosive move above the handle.
AMEX:SPYLong
by SLOPolarBear
SPY - Cup & Handle formationWon't know if this is a continuation or reversal until we see strong volume pushing price above/below the handle formation, and holding. The daily/weekly picture for SPX is not as doom and gloomy as short sellers would like. A lot of investors want to see the upper channel of the multi-year trend channel tested once more before we go into full recession mode sell-off. The handle is bullish in terms of weak (falling) selling volume, hence the sideways action in the handle. Price WANTS to move up, and RSI bottoming is occurring on the lower time frames revealing that buyers are looking to get the MA pointed up again. Price targets for a bullish breakout would be $375-385 using conservatives estimates. We still need to see 2-day/weekly RSI peak before the bulls relent. Not opening a position inside the handle until we get a breakout and confirmation (long or short) -- but leaning towards long for above reasons.
AMEX:SPYLong
by SLOPolarBear
3
BEAR TRAP OR BULL TRAP?Is the market breaking out or still correcting? I can make a case for 5 waves up from March with a correction that potentially started in September. This could also be the start of wave #5 which puts price a good bit higher. I cannot determine that yet- price would need to drop hard very soon to convince me of a continued correction. There's just one red flag on this chart worth watching. The heavy pink line is the put:call ratio average. It is potentially reversing which could signal a trend change in price. As price moves up, the ratio drops. As price moves down, the ratio increases. This provides an excellent gauge for true sentiment. Tracking the price direction, volume , and the put/call average can really help identify where the masses are throwing their money. Always being contrary isn't wise but there is a time & place for it if you know how to identify a change in the wind... one way is to wait for the wind to change!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by gghsusa
SPY - Sleep Aid for BearsI expect this pattern will take about (6) months to develop. There's a lot of denial going around these days, and I think that has contributed to numerous traders (say, half the country?) eager to put us back into that bullish ascending channel where we were up until Covid-19 arrived. The other half of us are gazing at these charts shaking our heads in disbelief; the fundamentals just don't line up. But fortunately, neither do the technical indicators. If you scroll back to the Dot-Com crash and Global Financial Crisis crash you'll see a common pattern. Outside of this pattern, it's difficult to imagine a breakout about $361 (in the near term), but anything is possible. Keep those stops tight and happy trading.
AMEX:SPYShort
by SLOPolarBear
3
SPY - Pullback to $333I chose the 4-hour chart for this pitch since it's a perfect blend of all of the time frames leading into next week. A handful of indicators show price divergence in the lower time frames: 1. Volume-weighted RSI 2. Increasing selling volume 3. Accumulation/Distribution Each of these indicators are fairly bullish AFTER the retracement, which is why I'm predicting a brief price markdown followed by a bounce. From there, lots of unknowns. Future clouds reveal support at these levels is fragile; a double-bottom @ $333 would be a nice price point to bounce into the daily/weekly trends, which are bullish until the first week of November (you don't say?). The predicted pattern gives us a failed head and shoulders which will be shorted on the 2nd bounce and give a little rocket fuel to the upward bounce as they buy to cover. I'm a fan of Ichimoku Clouds with the SPY. Price almost always retraces after breaking out from a downtrend. Trump is in Sanford, Florida doing a rally on Monday -- seems like a ripe opportunity for him to tweet/say something stupid to kickstart this correction. Anyone else have any thoughts?
AMEX:SPYShort
by SLOPolarBear
3
Another Taffer in the Shadows?This is the NEW YORK COMPOSITE INDEX. Please see my previous post just a couple of weeks ago about this drop and what to expect from here. Based on all the data I can muster to analyze, the correction is not over. It's possible that we rally and/or drift sideways into the election but this looks very concerning to me.. I keep hearing from too many people that the Fed has their back. They believe the Fed will hold their hand to victory into an eternal upward rally. I am not one to dismiss the melt-up scenario and hyper-inflationary end game, but this is what I see right now.. I see the potential for another drop. The bigger question- what happens after this drop? Do we have a 08-like melt-down or is that just another dip to buy in this bull run? We'll take it as it comes. Please be smart, patient, and immune to public sentiment. Think for yourself but study, study, study!
TVC:NYA
by gghsusa